Yeah that was pretty crazy. Lots of questions from readers on Griffin, but BA seems cool his ability to hit. They’re not alone either. Also, I want that kid in center.
Think they also made a point to say that it was a little too early for an actual comp. Might have been for a different player, but thought it was on Konnor.
Also know for a fact some of the people at BA have picked up on a slight swing change on him. He was a pleasant surprise from the little I saw during the bridge league, nowhere near as much swing issues as I thought.
Need to see more, but hit tool might be better than we thought.
Also, building off NMR below, grading prep hit tools is basically useless still
Plate discipline is the only part of the hit tool that might be evident in a prep player. I'm not sure of that until they reach double A and start seeing better breaking and off speed offerings.
I'll be concerned about concerns about hit tools when any scout shows he can project the tool worth a damn.
How many HS signs in a given draft have gone on to produce above-average hit tools?
The way I've come to think about HS hit tool is assuming they'll all most likely suck and draft off of everything else. I'd say we've seen bigger misses in the form of drafting kids based off positive hit tool projections than anything else.
That’s fair. Although the BA podcast this summer certainly pointed to college hitters being as bad or even worse than prep bats over the last 7-8 draft classes. Me? I’m gonna assume every bat they draft sucks until he hits in the majors.
Interestingly, the guy who had the big year in the DSL this year, Florentino, when signed was supposed to have hit tool questions as his main weakness. He had more walks than Ks and a 19% K rate. Could go totally south at higher levels, who knows, but it’s a start.
Dude, what you got? Anything is better than the excessive and persistent worrying about the GM. This is daily.
Here's a blurb from BA regarding Brannigan...
I was somewhat surprised he never reached Double-A. He still has an excellent arm and solid power. I think he's more of a solid-average SS compared to a plus defender at 3B. The hit tool is really the question. It's a pretty vertical swing/approach. The Pirates don't have a ton of long-term SS options, so perhaps Brannigan gets a shot there at the end of '25 or '26, but he seems like a versatile bench piece to me with some thump.
After reading on him, and then watching A LOT of video lately, I am REALLY excited for Levi Sterling. If the velocity starts to tick up, which it sounds like they expect it to, watch out
Siani made two outstanding plays in RF yesterday to save the game. One sprinting back to the fence saving a run and then a diving catch in front of him and doubling off the runner before he could get back to first.
Big games by Kervin Pichardo, 3 hits/3 RBI, and a game saving catch in the 8th inning by Sammy Siani. Scottsdale was leading 7-4 going into the 8th and after 2 runs were scored making the score 7-6 with a runner on and one out, "Gabriel Rincones, Jr. sent a sinking liner to right field. Siani charged in to make a diving catch and fired to 1B from his knees to double off Zyhir Hope for a rally-killing double play."
Scottsdale Manager Dennis Pelfrey after the game "Siani has been a little overshadowed [AFL Triple Crown Winner Josue Briceno] I don't know that he's undervalued anywhere, but he's someone who kind of goes under the radar." For the AFL Season Siani finished 8th overall with a 1.007 OPS, 5 doubles, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 6 for 6 SB, 11 Walks/16 K. Kervin Pichardo, who played SS last night, finished 12th overall with a .951 OPS, 5 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 2 for 2 SB, 11 Walks/10K.
Siani was also one of 6 Prospects identified by Jonathan Mayo as players who could be candidates to make their team's 40 man rosters this off-season. A LH hitting, strong defensive OF, who made some swing adjustments this year and is making much better contact and power.
With all the caveats of projected WAR, Fangraphs has projected to go 78-84 (23rd in MLB). The way I'm looking at this is that the 6th position in the NL is a tie between the Cubs, Brewers, and Cards at 82-80. So, Ben needs to outperform their GMs by at least 4 WAR this offseason (there's also the Giants and Mets at 81-81 to leapfrog).
Key quote: "the quality of their starting pitching screams for big, aggressive moves to take advantage while the window is open."
After taking a mighty swing at BDLC and IKF at the trading deadline, our GM may be in time-out trying to figure out how it all went so wrong. Just nothing in this front office that inspires any type of positivity.
Sarcasm. Just for S&G I had just returned from an Employee Benefits Conference in San Diego where the final day featured speaker was local boy Billy Beane who walked us through an hour of Bill James, Moneyball, Paul De Podesta, etc., etc. It was the beginning of Ivy League Brains rolling together all of the data some knew, but nobody knew how to put it all together for baseball people to understand. He joked about how "frugal" the A's were forced to be and how unusual it was to have the assistance of a Harvard Graduate making about 25 cents on a dollar just to be around the game he loved.
Far from what I was expecting, and the last day, last session speaker usually gets nothing but the leftovers with late flights. I know, because this is the first last day, last session I have ever attended! The conference hosted about 6,000 and that final session was probably close to 1,500 - baseball/Beane/Moneyball are really popular.
To my mind, the time to move is early this off-season. With 6-8 teams in on Soto, that is a lot of budget money tied up until Soto signs. The longer the Soto saga continues, the better for the Pirates, because the teams still in on Soto will not be able to allocate that money elsewhere. If I were Ben, I would try to get a solid bat as early as possible, because once Soto signs, an absurd amount of money is going to start moving into the free-agent market.
I don't know if someone like O'Neil or Conforto would rise to the level of some team's plan b if they can't sign Soto, but I could see where they might hold out until Soto signs to see if that increases their value.
I want them to get the Polar Bear, but I’ll settle for Conforto and Santana.
Truthfully, FA should be taking a back seat to the trade market for us Pirates fans. Please make a big trade BC. Don’t let last year’s trade failings stop you from making a franchise altering deal.
I’d really prefer they go after left handed bats. I made forgiveness for Bader and Kim because they provide defensive skill sets that we really need. I’m also a little skeptical they pony up for O’Neill? And I suppose Kim for that matter as well.
Both Kiley and David Schoenfeld have Goldschmidt with improvement in the second half, suggesting that he can at least return to his 2023 level. Apparently his hard hit rate was good all season. Etc. But i doubt he would sign with the Pirates, preferring to go to a team with a greater chance of competing on 2025.
If the Pirates have made no "bold moves" before Soto signs, we are very likely to see a repeat of last year: with GMBC blowing off his budget on spare parts.
What makes it tough is that the Cubs and Brewers will likely make efforts to actually improve. Whether we have the financial wherewithal, or the willingness to trade a good prospect, in order to do so remains to be seen. I’d say the figure is likely more than 4 WAR based on that?
I hear you but both of those clubs will also have a much harder time improving their rosters than the Pirates.
The Cubs have no position slot projected under 2 WAR and practically a fully-committed rotation.
The Brewers have two, one of which is anchored by a $16m replacement-level first baseman, and this projection assumes both Freddy Peralta and an injured Corbin Burnes will be more valuable than Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. Call me skeptical.
The Pirates have a third of their positions essentially projected at replacement level, a bullpen under 2 WAR, and a ton of helium in the rotation. That's not only easier to improve but also more ground to gain. Getting 2024-level performances out of DH and RP alone adds about 3 WAR.
I remember you making this argument in the 2016-2018 Bucs era where Cutch and Cole dropped from big star status and the whole team seemed to hover between 1-3.5 win players. And you’re dead on-that depth is important, but if that’s the entire makeup of your organization, how do you get over that hump and into the playoffs.
And if you’re the Cubs, you’re kinda stuck. Unless PCA or Busch become big 4/5 win players, they have a collection of good, but not great players. Sign Soto and Burnes and trade Ian Happ? Spending at the top of the market or trading high end prospects for a big start is kinda their only way to go.
Not an unfair assessment, only comment I’d make is that the Cubs certainly have the resources to chase a Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes who could represent a massive improvement over whomever gets knocked off the end of the roster. But I understand being skeptical that they go after those guys because they usually aren’t successful playing at the end of the free agent market.
I think the biggest reason to be bullish on the Brewers is just that you trust their system to produce internal improvement more so than ours, and Attansio has been willing to stretch his budget more than Nutting.
To the Pirates end of the ledger, other than maybe Adames, I’m not sure either team has a guy who could really double his WAR output like Cruz.
Confused on your Burnes comment? Are you referring to Woodruff?
If Hayes gets a bionic back, that’s huge. If Hayes and Bednar are just around average regulars, that’s probably 4/5 more wins there. This team certainly needs outside help, but I think eliminating the awful will help.
I’m skeptical on Hayes. But I find the argument about a bullpen turnaround compelling. They certainly are deep enough in arms for it. Still need the bats as a supporting cast either way though. Or for Cruz to really go nuts (which would be oodles of fun).
Skeptical for sure, but I just can't accept a kid that young without like a SERIOUS back injury is just now completely shot. I don't know man. I'm more hopeful than not.
Agree, that's why I like the Mets as a trade partner. With Lindor, Mauricio or Acuna might be available. It looks like a good trade match-up with our surplus of starting pitchers.
Yep, he'd be one of my top targets, if not top in the trade market. I also like Soderstrom as a first base target. I think the bigger need is at short though.
Expected a bit of prospect listicle chatter with BA coming out with their Top 10! Just ain't what it used to be, I guess.
Bubba getting Wheeler, Cole and Baz comps!
Yeah that was pretty crazy. Lots of questions from readers on Griffin, but BA seems cool his ability to hit. They’re not alone either. Also, I want that kid in center.
I saw a George Springer comp for Griffin. But, yeah, concerns with the hit tool
Think they also made a point to say that it was a little too early for an actual comp. Might have been for a different player, but thought it was on Konnor.
Also know for a fact some of the people at BA have picked up on a slight swing change on him. He was a pleasant surprise from the little I saw during the bridge league, nowhere near as much swing issues as I thought.
Need to see more, but hit tool might be better than we thought.
Also, building off NMR below, grading prep hit tools is basically useless still
Plate discipline is the only part of the hit tool that might be evident in a prep player. I'm not sure of that until they reach double A and start seeing better breaking and off speed offerings.
I'll be concerned about concerns about hit tools when any scout shows he can project the tool worth a damn.
How many HS signs in a given draft have gone on to produce above-average hit tools?
The way I've come to think about HS hit tool is assuming they'll all most likely suck and draft off of everything else. I'd say we've seen bigger misses in the form of drafting kids based off positive hit tool projections than anything else.
That’s fair. Although the BA podcast this summer certainly pointed to college hitters being as bad or even worse than prep bats over the last 7-8 draft classes. Me? I’m gonna assume every bat they draft sucks until he hits in the majors.
Interestingly, the guy who had the big year in the DSL this year, Florentino, when signed was supposed to have hit tool questions as his main weakness. He had more walks than Ks and a 19% K rate. Could go totally south at higher levels, who knows, but it’s a start.
Ter...
Watch your mo...
Thanks for the heads up on the chat.
Dude, what you got? Anything is better than the excessive and persistent worrying about the GM. This is daily.
Here's a blurb from BA regarding Brannigan...
I was somewhat surprised he never reached Double-A. He still has an excellent arm and solid power. I think he's more of a solid-average SS compared to a plus defender at 3B. The hit tool is really the question. It's a pretty vertical swing/approach. The Pirates don't have a ton of long-term SS options, so perhaps Brannigan gets a shot there at the end of '25 or '26, but he seems like a versatile bench piece to me with some thump.
Well for one, the BA list is damn-near the BoD list so we know where they get their sources. ;)
Thought their write-up on Termarr was packed with info, really well done.
I, too, am bullish on Meuth from the '23 draft and Serling from '24, so I liked their placement as well.
After reading on him, and then watching A LOT of video lately, I am REALLY excited for Levi Sterling. If the velocity starts to tick up, which it sounds like they expect it to, watch out
Brannigan turning into a productive Super U guy would go in the win column.
I think the plan is - Bart @ C, Hayes @ 3b, Reynolds in LF, Cruz in CF and the rest of the roster to be filled out with utility players.
with these guys there's usually...always?...fire after smoke with position changes.
I'd be more surprised than not if they buttered up Reynolds with the 1B mitt only to pull the plug.
Siani made two outstanding plays in RF yesterday to save the game. One sprinting back to the fence saving a run and then a diving catch in front of him and doubling off the runner before he could get back to first.
He's played some really good defense out there.
Big games by Kervin Pichardo, 3 hits/3 RBI, and a game saving catch in the 8th inning by Sammy Siani. Scottsdale was leading 7-4 going into the 8th and after 2 runs were scored making the score 7-6 with a runner on and one out, "Gabriel Rincones, Jr. sent a sinking liner to right field. Siani charged in to make a diving catch and fired to 1B from his knees to double off Zyhir Hope for a rally-killing double play."
Scottsdale Manager Dennis Pelfrey after the game "Siani has been a little overshadowed [AFL Triple Crown Winner Josue Briceno] I don't know that he's undervalued anywhere, but he's someone who kind of goes under the radar." For the AFL Season Siani finished 8th overall with a 1.007 OPS, 5 doubles, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 6 for 6 SB, 11 Walks/16 K. Kervin Pichardo, who played SS last night, finished 12th overall with a .951 OPS, 5 doubles, 2 triples, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 2 for 2 SB, 11 Walks/10K.
Siani was also one of 6 Prospects identified by Jonathan Mayo as players who could be candidates to make their team's 40 man rosters this off-season. A LH hitting, strong defensive OF, who made some swing adjustments this year and is making much better contact and power.
With all the caveats of projected WAR, Fangraphs has projected to go 78-84 (23rd in MLB). The way I'm looking at this is that the 6th position in the NL is a tie between the Cubs, Brewers, and Cards at 82-80. So, Ben needs to outperform their GMs by at least 4 WAR this offseason (there's also the Giants and Mets at 81-81 to leapfrog).
Key quote: "the quality of their starting pitching screams for big, aggressive moves to take advantage while the window is open."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-offseason-2025/
After taking a mighty swing at BDLC and IKF at the trading deadline, our GM may be in time-out trying to figure out how it all went so wrong. Just nothing in this front office that inspires any type of positivity.
A mighty swing with BDLC? Tennessee Mel hitting the hooch early on a Friday.
Fairly certain that was sarcasm....
Fairly certain with Tennessee Mel it wasn’t. If it was, I’ll stand corrected.
Sarcasm. Just for S&G I had just returned from an Employee Benefits Conference in San Diego where the final day featured speaker was local boy Billy Beane who walked us through an hour of Bill James, Moneyball, Paul De Podesta, etc., etc. It was the beginning of Ivy League Brains rolling together all of the data some knew, but nobody knew how to put it all together for baseball people to understand. He joked about how "frugal" the A's were forced to be and how unusual it was to have the assistance of a Harvard Graduate making about 25 cents on a dollar just to be around the game he loved.
Far from what I was expecting, and the last day, last session speaker usually gets nothing but the leftovers with late flights. I know, because this is the first last day, last session I have ever attended! The conference hosted about 6,000 and that final session was probably close to 1,500 - baseball/Beane/Moneyball are really popular.
Fair enough Mel!
To my mind, the time to move is early this off-season. With 6-8 teams in on Soto, that is a lot of budget money tied up until Soto signs. The longer the Soto saga continues, the better for the Pirates, because the teams still in on Soto will not be able to allocate that money elsewhere. If I were Ben, I would try to get a solid bat as early as possible, because once Soto signs, an absurd amount of money is going to start moving into the free-agent market.
I don't know if someone like O'Neil or Conforto would rise to the level of some team's plan b if they can't sign Soto, but I could see where they might hold out until Soto signs to see if that increases their value.
I want them to get the Polar Bear, but I’ll settle for Conforto and Santana.
Truthfully, FA should be taking a back seat to the trade market for us Pirates fans. Please make a big trade BC. Don’t let last year’s trade failings stop you from making a franchise altering deal.
Given what I see as likely financial limitations, I wholly agree with this. They need to move one of the starters for a bopper.
Agree on jumping the market. Ha-Seong Kim, Michael Conforto, Alex Verdugo, Harrison Bader and Max Kepler would be reasonable targets.
I like the first two, a lot…
O’Neill?
I’d really prefer they go after left handed bats. I made forgiveness for Bader and Kim because they provide defensive skill sets that we really need. I’m also a little skeptical they pony up for O’Neill? And I suppose Kim for that matter as well.
Kiley has Goldschmidt as one of his three FAs to invest in, and he projects Goldschmidt to take a one-year deal. That might be a good move.
Interesting!
Kiley's not a dumb dude, must see something in the data.
Both Kiley and David Schoenfeld have Goldschmidt with improvement in the second half, suggesting that he can at least return to his 2023 level. Apparently his hard hit rate was good all season. Etc. But i doubt he would sign with the Pirates, preferring to go to a team with a greater chance of competing on 2025.
Projected salary on a one-year deal: $18 million.
What happens with Reynolds in such a scenario? RF?
RF, so his abysmal range is hidden for another year.
If the Pirates have made no "bold moves" before Soto signs, we are very likely to see a repeat of last year: with GMBC blowing off his budget on spare parts.
What makes it tough is that the Cubs and Brewers will likely make efforts to actually improve. Whether we have the financial wherewithal, or the willingness to trade a good prospect, in order to do so remains to be seen. I’d say the figure is likely more than 4 WAR based on that?
I hear you but both of those clubs will also have a much harder time improving their rosters than the Pirates.
The Cubs have no position slot projected under 2 WAR and practically a fully-committed rotation.
The Brewers have two, one of which is anchored by a $16m replacement-level first baseman, and this projection assumes both Freddy Peralta and an injured Corbin Burnes will be more valuable than Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. Call me skeptical.
The Pirates have a third of their positions essentially projected at replacement level, a bullpen under 2 WAR, and a ton of helium in the rotation. That's not only easier to improve but also more ground to gain. Getting 2024-level performances out of DH and RP alone adds about 3 WAR.
I remember you making this argument in the 2016-2018 Bucs era where Cutch and Cole dropped from big star status and the whole team seemed to hover between 1-3.5 win players. And you’re dead on-that depth is important, but if that’s the entire makeup of your organization, how do you get over that hump and into the playoffs.
And if you’re the Cubs, you’re kinda stuck. Unless PCA or Busch become big 4/5 win players, they have a collection of good, but not great players. Sign Soto and Burnes and trade Ian Happ? Spending at the top of the market or trading high end prospects for a big start is kinda their only way to go.
Getting to 82-84 wins from 78 is a shitload harder than getting to 90 from 82!
Honestly might be a year that ~88 wins takes the Division.
2023 beat me to it!
Not an unfair assessment, only comment I’d make is that the Cubs certainly have the resources to chase a Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes who could represent a massive improvement over whomever gets knocked off the end of the roster. But I understand being skeptical that they go after those guys because they usually aren’t successful playing at the end of the free agent market.
I think the biggest reason to be bullish on the Brewers is just that you trust their system to produce internal improvement more so than ours, and Attansio has been willing to stretch his budget more than Nutting.
To the Pirates end of the ledger, other than maybe Adames, I’m not sure either team has a guy who could really double his WAR output like Cruz.
Confused on your Burnes comment? Are you referring to Woodruff?
You're not wrong!
lol and yes, I was thinking Woodruff and said Burns. old habits...
If Hayes gets a bionic back, that’s huge. If Hayes and Bednar are just around average regulars, that’s probably 4/5 more wins there. This team certainly needs outside help, but I think eliminating the awful will help.
I’m skeptical on Hayes. But I find the argument about a bullpen turnaround compelling. They certainly are deep enough in arms for it. Still need the bats as a supporting cast either way though. Or for Cruz to really go nuts (which would be oodles of fun).
Skeptical for sure, but I just can't accept a kid that young without like a SERIOUS back injury is just now completely shot. I don't know man. I'm more hopeful than not.
Good for Kevin Newman.
I think he’s going to miss hitting in AZ. I still remember when he was a Pirate he hit a 450 ft bomb in that park.
But WAR is park adjusted and per the article above his bWAR was 2.2 even though he only played 110 games. Very surprised he was that valuable.
One of the reasons i think it makes more sense for them to worry about SS than 1B.
Only 10 2 WAR first basemen last year in the league.
20 shortstops.
Agree, that's why I like the Mets as a trade partner. With Lindor, Mauricio or Acuna might be available. It looks like a good trade match-up with our surplus of starting pitchers.
Was it you who was talking about Mauricio as a SS pickup recently? I liked that one.
Ronny Moe? He got busted last week working in The Pit.
Yep, he'd be one of my top targets, if not top in the trade market. I also like Soderstrom as a first base target. I think the bigger need is at short though.
Amen, still gettin' starter work.