To Catch22: You're on the right track, but sadly all the Cards would have to do is "match" the Pirates offer. We're going to lose most match offers, because of our (Bob's) reputation of not really competing. Even the A's would probably beat the Pirates, as Las Vegas would be an attractive place for a FA to play in a new city with a new energized fan base.
Meanwhile the Pirates have done nothing except sign a minor league outfielder. It simply begs the question of what they plan to do? Cherington talks a good game but his actions often do not fit the words. Good organizations like the Cardinals are proactive and go after players they want . Is BC just gonna sit back and wait so he can pickup the pieces no one else is interested in, again? He needs to more than just bring back Santana and Hill, but will he?
With a rotation decimated by injuries (which, as Mackey asked in yesterday's column, you have to at least wonder if it's related to their emphasis on breaking pitches and spin rates) and ineffectiveness (with Stephenson's success with TB raising the question of whether we can maximize a pitcher's potential), it's fair for a starting pitcher to view signing with the Pirates as one of their last options. This may also explain why Cherington has been emphasizing acquiring players via trades, but I don't know that Cherington has the will to trade the kind of prospects necessary for bringing back a quality SP.
Lots of time left but it is a little disheartening to see the Cardinals act so quickly with the type of signings that we should be pursuing.
If you actually expect them to make a splash via FA or trades, you're going to be highly disappointed. Reds haven't made a move, same with Brewers and Cubbies. Only a very limited number of teams have done anything.
They’re gonna wait for somebody to get put in the remainder bin. Everybody else in the NLC is looking to get better, but the Pirates just aren’t going to behave like a major league franchise.
1. Erod 2. Lugo 3. Severino 4. VV (in terms of priority) then belt, cutch, and idk Michael A Taylor or someone for CF. After that is done, we can do the real heavy lifting of ohtani and a burnes trade to round out the squad
Man dreaming is a lot more fun than reality when thinking of our offseason lol
The answer is in today's title - the starting pitching market continues to thin out. We are getting close to BC's area of expertise - try to find somebody who could possibly pitch better than anyone else thought. I like your 1, 2, but 3, 4 are very questionable.
Mike Clevinger was paid $8 mil for 2023 and had a mutual option for $12 mil in 2024 and he opted out - wonder if he gets the $4 + mil? He's looking long term and the Pirates either extend Keller or they look for another experienced SP Horse to help the kids get acclimated over the next few years.
My thoughts for 3,4 were that severino pitched below his peripherals last year and also had already been to driveline this offseason. VV is by far the lowest tier and mostly a flier based on his flash last year tbh
Bauer would need to be very, very cheap for me to make him an offer. That thing could blow the eff up in a hurry and make a lot of ppl look bad. Dude is a child and always has been.
Who knows where he's at mentally but worth noting he was the first (and so far only) player to openly seek short term0high dollar deals. Bet you something like 1/$20m gets his attention, not getting stuck with an org for four years.
Your probably right, but I would think with his toxicity league wide very few if any team will offer him much over $10 million the first year. He needs to prove he isn't going to be a problem in anyway. 4 years is probably too long considering his age, but it's were I would start and hope things would work but be ready to cut line at the drop of a dime.
If the Pirates had signed the same 3 SPs as the Cardinals, our payroll would be sitting at $95M for this year. Would still need a 1B. Might still re-sign Cutch. Might need a bullpen piece or two. But they could've put together a very nice rotation and team for $110M. A rotation of Keller, Gray, Lynn, Gibson, and Roansy/Jackson/Priester will do just fine and allow the depth guys to be just that. Instead...we've done....nothing.
It’s a self-inflicted problem. It’s not because they’re a small market. It’s because they have a reputation for not being serious. They’re gonna have to pay a premium to sign real players. Bob created the situation. They can either whine about it, or they can start acting like a real team and try to change perceptions.
I'd been happy with Gibson, though that might depend on whether you trust Fangraph's estimates of his value or BR's.
And Lynn is only one year removed from being above average and two years removed from being one of the better pitchers in the league. His age is a concern but he stayed healthy through 180+ IP and I'd roll the dice on him bouncing back if all it took was a one-year commitment.
As others have pointed out, though, we would have likely needed to outbid the Cards by a good amount to attract Lynn as a former Card or Gibson as someone with Missouri connections.
Gibson is just fine. He's a high floor guy, with no real ceiling that eats innings and relies on his defense. He has a handful of seasons with an era north of 5.
I agree. I like the Gray signing, but the others are nothing for Cards fans to get excited about. Overpaying for questionable middle-to-back of the rotation talent is not what produces winning teams.
Lynn has regressed the last 2 season, lost steam on his heater, relies on that pitch a ton, gives up a lot of bombs, is going to be 37 and has a weight problem.
There is no one after Keller so anything would be an upgrade over nothing. But $22 million for a guy who gave up 44 HRs last year, and a guy who nearly led the league in H/9 and hasn't missed a bat since junior high school is a lot to pay for players on the wrong side of 35. These are bad signings to me. $22 million can get you much more than that even at today's prices.
Interesting that Reds were in on Gray and possibly Glasnow. There was one season Reds owner pushed his chips into play. It was 2020 where he went out and spent big. Didn't work out in 60 game season but at least he tried. Can't say the same about Bob.
I liked your piece about the Statcast numbers for our pitchers. It was written to give the readers a glimpse of which Pirate pitchers were throwing the best pitches. I wondered about where our pitchers rated compared to all other pitchers throwing that type of pitch and came up with some interesting points.
My first take is that, based on Statcast, the Pirates should be concentrating on adding Andre Jackson and Carmen Mlodzinski to the Rotation, at least to start the year.
Jackson -
4 Seam +1.1 RV/100, #101 MLB, '23 Usage 44.6%
Curve +1.5 RV/100, #40 MLB, '23 Usage 6.5%
Slider +1.0 RV/100, #137 MLB, '23 Usage 17.0%
Changeup -2.2 RV/100, #288 MLB, '23 Usage 32.0%? For '24 drop 20%, add to his 3 good pitches
Mlodzinski -
4 Seam +1.6 RV/100, #62 MLB, '23 Usage 49.8%
Sweeper +0.7 RV/100, #57 MLB, '23 Usage 22%
Changeup +0.6 RV/100, #127 MLB, '23 Usage 14.7%
Both have heavy (almost 50%) usage of the 4 Seam FB. Mudge is #62 in MLB, Jackson #101 in MLB. Just for S&G I checked a few recent adds to the Cardinals - Sonny Gray is #152, Lance Lynn is #354, and Kyle Gibson is #393 for 4 Seamers. They probably have better other pitches.
That would be typical Pirates knee-jerk move to make Mlod a starter. You don't want to ruin success, he's wired for late innings, set-up man or close when Bednar needs days off.
Bednar is more than we could hope for as a closer.
Holderman and Mlodzinski are showing promise in late inning situations.
Borucki, Moreta, and Hernandez can potentially fill in the back end with added flexibility.
Nicolas is a wild card but might have as high of a ceiling as any of the others.
With the options Nicolas, Mlod, Hernandez, and even Selby have we should be able to keep Falter and Jackson in a once through the lineup position in the bullpen, if we could just get more than one starter.
To Catch22: You're on the right track, but sadly all the Cards would have to do is "match" the Pirates offer. We're going to lose most match offers, because of our (Bob's) reputation of not really competing. Even the A's would probably beat the Pirates, as Las Vegas would be an attractive place for a FA to play in a new city with a new energized fan base.
I don't even think match would've done it. Pirates could've offered 3/80 and Gray still would've inked 3/75 with STL.
Would you rather play in front of STL fans or the drunken WOO birds chirping from the 7th inning on in a 10-run blowout?
Meanwhile the Pirates have done nothing except sign a minor league outfielder. It simply begs the question of what they plan to do? Cherington talks a good game but his actions often do not fit the words. Good organizations like the Cardinals are proactive and go after players they want . Is BC just gonna sit back and wait so he can pickup the pieces no one else is interested in, again? He needs to more than just bring back Santana and Hill, but will he?
With a rotation decimated by injuries (which, as Mackey asked in yesterday's column, you have to at least wonder if it's related to their emphasis on breaking pitches and spin rates) and ineffectiveness (with Stephenson's success with TB raising the question of whether we can maximize a pitcher's potential), it's fair for a starting pitcher to view signing with the Pirates as one of their last options. This may also explain why Cherington has been emphasizing acquiring players via trades, but I don't know that Cherington has the will to trade the kind of prospects necessary for bringing back a quality SP.
Lots of time left but it is a little disheartening to see the Cardinals act so quickly with the type of signings that we should be pursuing.
If you actually expect them to make a splash via FA or trades, you're going to be highly disappointed. Reds haven't made a move, same with Brewers and Cubbies. Only a very limited number of teams have done anything.
Pray for the best, prepare for the worst.
They’re gonna wait for somebody to get put in the remainder bin. Everybody else in the NLC is looking to get better, but the Pirates just aren’t going to behave like a major league franchise.
My off-season checklist:
Acquire (preferably better) players
1. Erod 2. Lugo 3. Severino 4. VV (in terms of priority) then belt, cutch, and idk Michael A Taylor or someone for CF. After that is done, we can do the real heavy lifting of ohtani and a burnes trade to round out the squad
Man dreaming is a lot more fun than reality when thinking of our offseason lol
The answer is in today's title - the starting pitching market continues to thin out. We are getting close to BC's area of expertise - try to find somebody who could possibly pitch better than anyone else thought. I like your 1, 2, but 3, 4 are very questionable.
Mike Clevinger was paid $8 mil for 2023 and had a mutual option for $12 mil in 2024 and he opted out - wonder if he gets the $4 + mil? He's looking long term and the Pirates either extend Keller or they look for another experienced SP Horse to help the kids get acclimated over the next few years.
My thoughts for 3,4 were that severino pitched below his peripherals last year and also had already been to driveline this offseason. VV is by far the lowest tier and mostly a flier based on his flash last year tbh
If you’re looking at guys who are kinda...wildcards like Clevinger, why not Bauer?
Bauer would need to be very, very cheap for me to make him an offer. That thing could blow the eff up in a hurry and make a lot of ppl look bad. Dude is a child and always has been.
I can see Bauer on team friendly deal and I think he would jump at it. A 4 year deal with a team option at the end of each year.
Year 1) $7 million with a $3 million buy out.
Year 2) $10 million with a $3 million buy out.
Year 3) $15 million with a $3 million buy out.
Year 4) $18 million
It's a $10 million gamble or a $50 million bargain depending on Bauer's performance and or behavior.
Who knows where he's at mentally but worth noting he was the first (and so far only) player to openly seek short term0high dollar deals. Bet you something like 1/$20m gets his attention, not getting stuck with an org for four years.
Your probably right, but I would think with his toxicity league wide very few if any team will offer him much over $10 million the first year. He needs to prove he isn't going to be a problem in anyway. 4 years is probably too long considering his age, but it's were I would start and hope things would work but be ready to cut line at the drop of a dime.
They both are. No surprise that Clevinger and Bauer hit it off so well in Cleveland.
Is Clevinger really a "horse" though?
Dude is hurt a ton, only hit 200 IP once in 2018 and has never come close again. I don't see anyone handing him a multi year deal.
Most likely he ends up in Wilbur's remainder bin.
Cheap, good, and healthy.
You need all of them, but can afford no more than one. Gotta approach every decision with the reality that everyone will be flawed.
I'm with you on Lugo. So I'm dreaming of him or Flaherty at the present moment.
If the Pirates had signed the same 3 SPs as the Cardinals, our payroll would be sitting at $95M for this year. Would still need a 1B. Might still re-sign Cutch. Might need a bullpen piece or two. But they could've put together a very nice rotation and team for $110M. A rotation of Keller, Gray, Lynn, Gibson, and Roansy/Jackson/Priester will do just fine and allow the depth guys to be just that. Instead...we've done....nothing.
You're assuming those guys would WANT to come here for the same amount that they got from the Cards....
Most here don't understand the concept of *free agents* they can go anywhere they want.
It’s a self-inflicted problem. It’s not because they’re a small market. It’s because they have a reputation for not being serious. They’re gonna have to pay a premium to sign real players. Bob created the situation. They can either whine about it, or they can start acting like a real team and try to change perceptions.
I'd take Sonny @ 3/75, but I wouldn't sign the other 2.
Then again, Sonny said he went into this off-season wanting to become a Card.
Bob offers 3/75, Cards counter 3/80 and they keep upping the ante until it doesn't make sense for PGH.
I'd been happy with Gibson, though that might depend on whether you trust Fangraph's estimates of his value or BR's.
And Lynn is only one year removed from being above average and two years removed from being one of the better pitchers in the league. His age is a concern but he stayed healthy through 180+ IP and I'd roll the dice on him bouncing back if all it took was a one-year commitment.
As others have pointed out, though, we would have likely needed to outbid the Cards by a good amount to attract Lynn as a former Card or Gibson as someone with Missouri connections.
Gibson is just fine. He's a high floor guy, with no real ceiling that eats innings and relies on his defense. He has a handful of seasons with an era north of 5.
I agree. I like the Gray signing, but the others are nothing for Cards fans to get excited about. Overpaying for questionable middle-to-back of the rotation talent is not what produces winning teams.
No, but the argument can be made both Gibson and Lynn are better than what they have after Keller. Isn’t that the point?
Lynn has regressed the last 2 season, lost steam on his heater, relies on that pitch a ton, gives up a lot of bombs, is going to be 37 and has a weight problem.
There is no one after Keller so anything would be an upgrade over nothing. But $22 million for a guy who gave up 44 HRs last year, and a guy who nearly led the league in H/9 and hasn't missed a bat since junior high school is a lot to pay for players on the wrong side of 35. These are bad signings to me. $22 million can get you much more than that even at today's prices.
Of course, we don’t know how it’d work because Bob won’t try. And Gray is just one guy.
Interesting that Reds were in on Gray and possibly Glasnow. There was one season Reds owner pushed his chips into play. It was 2020 where he went out and spent big. Didn't work out in 60 game season but at least he tried. Can't say the same about Bob.
I liked your piece about the Statcast numbers for our pitchers. It was written to give the readers a glimpse of which Pirate pitchers were throwing the best pitches. I wondered about where our pitchers rated compared to all other pitchers throwing that type of pitch and came up with some interesting points.
My first take is that, based on Statcast, the Pirates should be concentrating on adding Andre Jackson and Carmen Mlodzinski to the Rotation, at least to start the year.
Jackson -
4 Seam +1.1 RV/100, #101 MLB, '23 Usage 44.6%
Curve +1.5 RV/100, #40 MLB, '23 Usage 6.5%
Slider +1.0 RV/100, #137 MLB, '23 Usage 17.0%
Changeup -2.2 RV/100, #288 MLB, '23 Usage 32.0%? For '24 drop 20%, add to his 3 good pitches
Mlodzinski -
4 Seam +1.6 RV/100, #62 MLB, '23 Usage 49.8%
Sweeper +0.7 RV/100, #57 MLB, '23 Usage 22%
Changeup +0.6 RV/100, #127 MLB, '23 Usage 14.7%
Both have heavy (almost 50%) usage of the 4 Seam FB. Mudge is #62 in MLB, Jackson #101 in MLB. Just for S&G I checked a few recent adds to the Cardinals - Sonny Gray is #152, Lance Lynn is #354, and Kyle Gibson is #393 for 4 Seamers. They probably have better other pitches.
Yeah, that'll make 'em contenders.
That would be typical Pirates knee-jerk move to make Mlod a starter. You don't want to ruin success, he's wired for late innings, set-up man or close when Bednar needs days off.
The back of the bullpen is coming together.
Bednar is more than we could hope for as a closer.
Holderman and Mlodzinski are showing promise in late inning situations.
Borucki, Moreta, and Hernandez can potentially fill in the back end with added flexibility.
Nicolas is a wild card but might have as high of a ceiling as any of the others.
With the options Nicolas, Mlod, Hernandez, and even Selby have we should be able to keep Falter and Jackson in a once through the lineup position in the bullpen, if we could just get more than one starter.