79 Comments

I’m an eternal optimist when it comes to this team…I feel pretty strongly about the w/l over for anyone talking 90+ losses. Last I checked, Fanduel showed o/u at 74.5 wins, and if I were a gambler I’d take the over on that one too.

Maybe good I’m not a gambler 😁

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hell yeah.

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I find a great place to start when evaluating if a team is ready to improve at the bottom end is checking to see if they've upgrade on their least-valuable players.

Last year, unfortunately, those were Hank Davis and Quinn Priester; two players who almost by default must become significantly *positive* contributors in order for the club to have any shot at improving. It's truly difficult to be as bad as Hank was in particular, giving back an entire win in only about 1/3 of the season.

That does, however, also open up the potential for a compounded improvement if they do improve. Simply getting league-average performances out of them would boost the club more than acquiring the best first baseman on the market.

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This is the same prediction crowd that predicted a 65 +/- win season in 2023. The Bucs won 76.

Enough said. Facts are facts

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Yes, of course. It's just a prediction and being +/- 11 games isn't all that surprising (I'm pretty sure that in '21 and '22 we underachieved our predictions because few teams are predicted to lose 100).

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Pecota projects the Pirates to finish last, 73-89. Obviously wasn’t as impressed with BC’s offseason as Nuttin.

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A 3 game regression is certainly plausible if not probable. Looking thru rose-tinted glasses, it is also plausible to have a 3 game improvement, which keeps us in the WC chase in Sept. The big 3 that could paint this picture are Cruz just carrying us on his shoulders for stretches, Key hits for a full 162 like end of last year, and Hank moves closer to his full hitting/power potential. As others have stated, a lot of things have to fall into place, including 2 lefty FA's performing better than Hill last year.

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I was thinking the other day that it would be a tough case to make that we're better going into '24 than we were going into '23, so it wouldn't make a lot of sense to project us as winning more games this year. That's especially true given that the Reds appear to be much better and the Cubs and Cardinals are no worse and likely better (the Cubs need to replace what they lost in Bellinger, but a year ago Bellinger wasn't expected to bounce back the way he did).

In fact, off the top of my head I'd say the only NL teams that have taken a step back from a year ago are the Mets, Padres, and Brewers while the Reds, Dbacks, Giants, and Marlins appear significantly stronger and the Dodgers, Braves, and Phillies remain elite. Where are the extra wins going to come from? A lot needs to go right, but it might :)

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I still think we're closer to a 100 loss team than a contender. We do have a lot of unproven potential from position players but so much needs to go right it's unlikely. The bullpen looks very good but the rotation will need a lot of bounce back and even more breakouts just to not wear out the bullpen.

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Our current rotation looks like one you'd expect for a 100-loss team. Our current lineup, more like a .500 team (that may be a tad optimistic). Our bullpen looks very good, but the starters have to be able to get the ball to them.

Counting heavily on Ortiz, Priester, Contreras, Perez, and Gonzales, and having Keller stay healthy doesn't seem like a very good plan. But Cherington and Shelton will be safe because they'll just point to all of the pitching on the way for '25.

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I don't know man, It is *incredibly* hard to lose 100 in today's game.

Damning with the faintest of praise, yes, but there would have to be cataclysmic outcomes for the '24 rotation to lose that much.

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Yeah, I don't think we'll lose 100 because our lineup should be okay with a chance to be good and our bullpen should be very good. It's just that our rotation doesn't appear to be any better than what we had in '21 and '22 when we lost 100.

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There's a version of NMR that would probably argue against what I'm about to say, but I see a far higher bottom end to the '24 arms and more depth behind them than the '21-'22 crew.

God help us if someone of Will Crowe's ability ends up leading the '24 staff in games started!

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I am more confident with our pitching than I was this time last year. I am kind of in a "wait and see mode" with our starters, but MLB starters didn't average 5 innings per game last year. That means the bullpens make up almost half of the game. I cautiously really like our bullpen.

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There is definitely better depth and I'm excited about the second half of '24, I just worry that we'll be well out of it before Jones, Skenes, Brubaker, Burrows, ... might be able to help.

If we could just add a solid #3, I'd feel much better.

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That’s where I am. As currently constitued, I see a 90 loss team.

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The rotation has massive meltdown potential and the offense still figures to be bottom quarter, maybe even bottom three or so. There’s clearly no intention whatsoever to move the team forward.

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Agree. I dont think people understand how thin the SP is. As of today its.

1. Keller

2. Gonzalez

3. Perez

4. Roansy

5. Ortiz

6. Falter

7. Priester

8. Plassmeyer (real person)

9. Jared Jones

10.Skenes

That’s it. Theres no one else. And some of those guys are terrible. What if theres a couple of spring training injuries?!

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Which is why Jason Mackey continues to stake his journalistic credibility on the idea that the Pirates *will* make a move to bolster the starting pitching. He’s been beating this drum since December to no avail. But I think there is a real possibility that this is it.

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How is he staking his journalistic credibility on that?

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Because despite all evidence to the contrary he continues to maintain in his chats that a trade has to be in the offing. He’s been saying this since December, with a focus especially on a deal with the Marlins.

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That's some pretty bad pitching... man.

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Who does it project to win the Central, and what is the projected record of that team?

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StL 85.5.

Everyone is protected at over 5 wins more than the Pirates, which no doubt reflects the absence of any effort at all to address any of their weaknesses.

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I think you missed Oviedo on that movers and shakers list, too. He was 13th with +3.3 but I wonder if ZiPS missed his surgery there.

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Tinfoil hat: Pirates have nterest in Sanchez because Hank will be included in a trade with Miami for a starter.

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only if Eury comes back

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That's a good thought, but very unlikely.

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trading tank at all right now is unlikely

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Could be. I just don’t understand how Sanchez fits. I guess you could have he and Henry each catch 80 games. Then play Henry another 40 or so in RF/DH.

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It think you'd give Sanchez and Davis ~60 games at DH to go with their ~80 games at C, which means that Cutch and Tellez get most of their starts in the field. Sanchez gives us insurance in case Davis at C doesn't work or there is an injury. I don't think we want a scenario where our two catchers are Delay and Ali Sanchez, but we've been in worse shape before.

As many have pointed out, the roster construction is odd but if Sanchez adds a win+ over Delay, say, a deal makes sense.

If we sign Sanchez, and given our other acquisitions of Perez, Gonzales, Tellez, and Chapman, I'm reminded of Cherington's WS year in Boston when he signed a bunch of veterans who then mostly exceeded expectations.

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Sanchez does not fit if the thought of the Pirates is to allow Henry Davis to play behind the plate at the MLB level. He did well with the bat in 2023 even as a RF! The Pirates did not plan for Endy to be injured, but this is a golden opportunity, especially with Jason Delay as the mentor for Henry Davis.

Davis had 10 doubles and 7 HR in 225 AB last year and a respectable 25 BB/69 K. Delay had 11 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR in 167 AB and a 1.1fWAR driven by a +9.5 Def as a Catcher. This is a solid pairing which could help the Pirates in the future.

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We already have Ali Sanchez on a MLB contract. We have Delay and Hank. What a terrible message to send to Hank in signing another veteran catcher. The mind games BC has played with Hank.

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Any player that would crumble from a little bit of competition has nowhere close to the mental toughness needed to succeed in Major League Baseball.

My goodness, I have no clue why Hank deserves to have so much condescension thrown his way. He's a fucking big boy, stop coddling him.

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The dude never played the OF until a few games in Indy. He was a catcher by trade. Now they're telling him he's going to catch, which BC also said after the All Star break.....but he didn't catch. These are the mind games. I'm not suggesting coddling anyone. Just develop them properly and then give a #1 overall a chance!

#1 overall doesn't come around very often (unless you now get lucky with the lottery balls). Did the Orioles screw around with Ruschman? Or with Holliday?

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If Hank Davis could catch like Adley we wouldn't be having this conversation and numerous young stars have explicitly been asked to change positions without it causing them to melt.

Davis was given the chance to rocket to the show, and for that he now has someone else to blame?

I don't disagree that they could've planned better, I just vehemently push back on this whole "mind game" business.

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I think the message would be to Delay, that he's not a MLB catcher. The jury is out on whether he is but going into the offseason it was supposedly going to be Endy and Davis, so not all that much would have changed.

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I could argue that if they signed Sanchez, Delay would still be the best option for an opening day starter. As for Davis, I could see them sending him to catch in Indy full-time for a couple of months at the beginning of the season. Davis has minimal professional experience at catcher (100 games) and could spend the additional time getting on track before coming up in June. It would be unpopular, but it is not a bad idea.

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I'm not certain Henry, Nick, Quinn or Liover earned their call-up last year. I don't know if having them go to the majors was good experience or a step back. I would not have a problem with any of those guys starting in the minors, if that would be best for them.

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And, only a week before pitchers and catchers arrive for the start of ST.

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Would make for more cohesive roster construction if we signed sanchez, but i feel like we would have to get one of their better available arms to make this not a huge gut punch for the community

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Davis/Bae/Ro for Cabrera/Puk/Alderman. Controllable starter and now a Goliath of a bullpen.

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AdminSky's offseason final push: Sign Michael A Taylor, Gary Sanchez, michael lorenzen. Deal connor joe and either nicky g or bae if either have any value, even a DSL lotto ticket, in hopes of boosting the disappointment that is our farm system.

Payroll still probably under 100M and would guess that's probably an 82+ win team?

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I’m not disappointed in the farm, the hitters that came up last year have to reach their ceiling, add the farm has the arms needed for a play off contending team if all comes to fruition

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I like another pitcher as well. As far as the farm system: When you have one guy in your farm system that is not meeting expectations, he was probably overrated to begin with. When it seems like everyone is not meeting expectations, the problem is the development. The Pirates are probably somewhere in between.

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Joe had his best year for the Pirates in 2023 and a 1.9 fWAR. Bae played over 300 innings out of position in CF in 2023 with 334 AB, but still led the team in SB's (24), and was 6th on the team with doubles (17). The Pirates of 2024 are still thinking about whether we need a CF or not, so yes, he is very valuable to the Pirates as a CF/2B. The more exposure he gets in CF the better and more comfortable he will get at that position

I think the IF is set with Hayes, Cruz, Peguero, Joe/Tellez, and Jared Triolo, who did very well in 2023 as the UT IF playing 3B/2B very well. Bae mentioned above will be available at 2B.

Gonzales got his shot at MLB last year and the bat just could not play. Peguero, Bae, and Triolo did better for the Pirates, thereby earning their places on the 2024 Pirate final 26. So, as I see it NG has to wait patiently and put up strong numbers at AAA and hope to get another MLB shot with the Pirates or hope to be traded elsewhere where he will have a better opportunity.

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I like Michael Lorenzen. He's a guy that can easily flip to a bullpen role at mid season to make room for someone else.

I'm actually surprised he's still out there. Seems like he would be a pretty useful piece for a contender that wouldn't break the bank.

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Good article. Nothing I have heard about Sanchez behind the plate was good. My other thought was even the Padres with all of that talent didn't even make the play-offs. Now I read your article and my read might be there is a possibility that 1) he go knocked down, 2) He has worked hard, 3) He is more motivated, 4) It takes some people just a while to grow up or get it.

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Statcast thinks he's shored up every aspect of his defensive game but blocking. His poptime is elite and his framing got a lot better. Dude hit 19 homers in 75 games and was a top 15 by fWAR catcher as a parttimer. Sure, three true outcomes hitter. He wouldn't be the worst signing, imo.

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I think you guys are selling Gary Sanchez to the point where I am buying in. My main question is why hasn't anyone signed him yet. The thought in the back of my mind, is if he is legit, he may be trying to prove something on another option year.

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I was pleasantly surprised to see no Pirates were mentioned on the Zips WAR Regression list. Then again it’s hard to drop far from the lower floors of the WAR Hotel. It’s not like any Pirates reside in the WAR Penthouse Suite.

Kinda along those same lines, a fun topic to debate is which, if any, of Skenes, Solo, and Bubba will exceed the 11.0 bWAR Cole put up as a Pirate?

I say if any of the 3 do, it’s a win for Pirates development team, and if 2 of 3 do it’s like winning an NL pennant, and if by some miracle all 3 do, it’s a WS victory for Pirates!

Of the 3, I say Chandler is odds on favorite to do so.

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I’d say Skenes is the odds on fave, but I really like Bubba.

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Tell me more on Bubba.

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Feels like a lot of untapped potential with a guy who was not only two-sport but two-way. The fastball seems like it really plays up (better than Skenes at this point) and he’s grown a lot. Hoping they’re both monsters.

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At this point in time, Chandler’s fastball is harder to hit than Skenes is, but Skenes commands his fastball way better right now.

Put the two together and you have 1985 Doc Gooden!

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A good defensive catcher that could hit 20 bombs for $6 million…….what’s the hold up?

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I hope the Pirates and Sanchez are waiting a week so the Pirates don't have to DFA another player.

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He's just not a good fit for the Pirates. 20+ dingers is too many.

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What you are saying is half-true. The Pirates also see the high strike-outs and will try to cut down on that (at the expense of the home runs).

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Not everyone thinks he’s a good defensive catcher. The metrics have been up and down. And the effort often hasn’t been there.

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It looks like the effort was definitely there last year in San Diego: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/gary-sanchez-596142?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb (still a bad blocker but all other facets much improved)

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There have been questions about his work ethic and his attitude from beginning of his career. I think most of this has gone away and was just the smugness of a young sensation. Most guys in their early 20s are idiots, and Sanchez might have grown up a lot. Nevertheless, the reputation (probably because he acquired it with the Yankees) has stuck with him for years... merited or no. I agree with you though, it seems that the lack of effort and bad attitude were years ago and should not be an issue now. https://sports.yahoo.com/joe-girardi-reportedly-wasnt-tough-enough-gary-sanchez-154050412.html

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I think you hit the nail on the head about guys being labeled stars at age 17. By the age of 31, they might have a different perspective.

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Could be, but if people around MLB were convinced, he’d be looking for a lot more than 1/5-6.

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He really has a negative label as far as attitude, work ethic and defense. Plus teams don't want to take on all of his strike-outs. No one wanted him last year either. I think most teams don't want to gamble on the catcher position, the same way they would at an outfield position. All of that could be one possibilty. The other possibility is he is the same old slug. I think the Pirates are one of few teams that might be willing to gamble on him. I think the ceiling is high.

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when others are fearful, be greedy

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Well... he has bounced around a lot and no team seems particularly keen to keep him. Also, there is the issue of still using a translator and having very poor English skills after years in the states. Hard to have a conference on the mound or talk strategy with pitchers who don't speak Spanish.

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Seems like a no-brainer, right?

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