29 Comments

Shocked to see Drake Fellows tossed four clean innings in AAA yesterday. That is 5% of his entire minor-league résumé. Amaze-balls.

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Really like to see Hudson Head start to hit some. Question ? Is it just a small sample size or has he made some adjustments? I know he was a pretty highly rated prospect with San Diego. Sure would be a big help to the farm if he figured something out and becomes a true big league centerfielder.

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Im not holding my breathe here… be great if he did but still striking out 30% as he is seeing A+ for the 3rd season

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Love the Patrick Reilly headline!

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It’s an odd draft with so much uncertainty. And even the reputed top players have some serious flaws or doubts about their game.

My personal draft record is spotty. I hated the Newman, Tucker, Craig, and Swaggerty picks the moment they were made. I was fine with Baz and Priester, and loved the 2021 Davis and high school upside strategy. I also liked the Johnson pick (over Elijah Greene).

I have literally never seen any of the top prospects in this draft play a single inning, so my opinions are based on just what I’ve read. It seems less and less likely that Montgomery will make it to #9, so it appears that the Pirates will be choosing among Kurtz and possibly both of the top high school bats, then the lesser college bats like Tibbs and Moore. My preferences are (in order): Kurtz, Rainer, Tibbs.

FWIW, MLB Pipeline just posted their final mock with both Callis and Mayo giving their picks. They both have the Pirates taking Kurtz, in Callis’ case with Rainer still on the board.

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No 55s or 60s in FV in this draft. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2024-mlb-draft Worst draft since at least 2021 and we know how that one went at least at the top.

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Congrats on the 1 year anniversary! I’ve enjoyed the coverage. Do you plan on a draft page tracking signings etc.?

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author
Jul 14·edited Jul 14Author

We will absolutely have some sort of tracker for the draft picks/signing. Gotta find the best way to format it, since Substack is a little different

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Jul 14Liked by Anthony Murphy

I’m definitely on for a second year. Keep up the great work!

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author

Thank you! Looking forward to another year here!

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I’ve seen BC quoted as saying they would take the “best athlete available” and then in another interview say the “best player, best talent” available. I don’t think these statements mean the same thing.

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I agree I don't think they mean the same, but also think we are splitting hairs some if we are taking it as some major contradiction (not saying that was your take). If he is truly taking best athlete then we are in for a major shock. Even GMs who are experts at generalities may not always select their words precisely. Personally I translate them both as the latter.

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I agree with this. Of course, we can't read his mind, and you typically don't want to say exactly how what you are going to do in any case. I would read this as to not expect any well below slot selection with the goal of saving for a later pick.

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I agree. I would be shocked if there aren't some scenarios that could play out that it could be under slot but per his comments I would hope it was because they just liked the player (maybe predicted for 12th or so pick) just as much as who else falls to 9. IMO (less informed than others who have posted a lot on the draft) once maybe 6-8 consensus top players are picked, it get's murky as too who really goes next. It is much less exciting than Crews vs. Skenes.. that is for sure.

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Saturday, July 13

47 down. 34 to go.

*

Pirates win 6-2 behind pitching and several healthy doses of Brian “Hit It Here” Reynolds. The Bucs are in third place, 6.5 back of the first place Brewers and two games out of the cellar and 2.5 games out of the wild card conversation.

*

CARROTS ON THE HOUSE!!!!

@> One for Kyle Nicolas who seems to be figuring it out!

@>@> Two for L’Ortiz. The Frenchman is making his case to stay in the rotation.

@>@>@> Three for B.Rey… 4 for 5 with four batted in… Dang.

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Now let’s get on out there behind Pitch Keller and finish the first half on a streak!

____________________________

“Finster! There you are you naughty baby.”

-Wabbit

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I'll share my opinion / 'beliefs' as well since this is Draft Day. I've shared this before so groundhog day post. Not looking for any 'but Ben is an idiot' debates today... this is what I (maybe more of an idiot) would do. Draft whoever they think is the best available player. Why? 1) I don't trust any 'advanced' (used WAY too often) college bat to contribute in the next two years so any positional need would need filled via trade or signing. 2) Any draftee CAN be used in a trade to fill a need and some teams may want a younger (high school) or older (college) 'prospect' in a trade so since we will have NO idea what team may be part of a trade - you draft best available. 3) Ben related so brace yourself - I disagree with those who think Ben will draft because he has to save his job. Totally IMO, I think the threats to his job (not necessarily our opinions of his job) are WAY overblown so I don't think that will make a college player more likely (supporting my opinion on who they draft).

To be honest I love the insights shared here(thank you)) and the predictions elsewhere but as I have perused the wasteland that drafts can be (a lot in the first round and WAY beyond a Pirates only statement), I have slightly lost interest in following it quite as close. Outside of your unicorns (hello Mr. Skenes), the immediate impact as compared to NFL and NBA is just so drastically different that all the post draft or even 2 or 3 years post draft debates are almost useless. I will get excited around pick 6 or 7 as we will get a good feel for who may be available.. I also get a kick seeing the usually 2 - 3 high school kids who aren't picked early (Bubba like) and start wondering if the Pirates will be the team to snag them.

Have fun everybody!!

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Agree with all this. I don’t think he’s in any danger of losing his job…. Yet. You have to draft the best player, holes be damned. If you have holes spend a little bit of money or make a smart trade to fill them. My biggest concern isn’t that he would draft to save his job, but more so that he would draft to fill a hole, assuming absence of payroll dollars.

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If a GM has to draft to save his job, he shouldn’t be in charge to make those types of decisions to begin with.

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Totally agree.. there just has been occasional dialog / comments referencing 'job saving' draft picking (ie. close to major college player).... I am not buying it but that is because I don't believe his job is in imminent danger.

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Agree. Great post.

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Jul 14Liked by Anthony Murphy

Congratulations on your one year anniversary. Love the site, hope you guys keep up the great work

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I think Condon, Bazzana, Wetherholt, and Caglione are almost certain to be gone by #9. The Pirates have so many pitching prospects that I’m discounting Burns and Smith. I have settled on Nick Kurtz as who I’d like the Pirates to pick. OBP machine. Good power. Fills a positional need. Could contribute with in the current “window”.

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Not concerned by the FG writeup that calls him a platoon bat limited to 1B?

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Jul 14·edited Jul 14

Here’s what I’m concerned with, the Pirates taking another high floor Tucker, Newman, Swaggerty, etc. player. Roll the dice on a high upside power bat and hope he turns into another Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber type impact bat.

PS - FG isn’t the Holy Bible of baseball. They get it wrong from time to time.

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Yeah but that's a false dilemma. You don't have to Kevin Newman or Andrew Vaughn this draft. There are other options. I'm starting to hope they snag Hagen Smith if Brayden Montgomery is gone.

FG isn't the baseball bible but it's as close as it gets.

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Jul 14·edited Jul 14

I like fangraphs opinions but they do make mistakes or just don't get enough eyes on players sometimes.

They gave Jacob Berry and Kevin Prada 50's in 2022 then Tommy Troy a 50 in 2023 while Matt Shaw just a 45 without the plus while giving Morgan and Kayfus 35+. They like anyone can be right or wrong.

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Yeah I agree and was just talking with NMR about this. When they actually see guys they do the best writeups on them but I think they're taking more consensus than they used to because they're understaffed or undertalented since Kiley left.

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They even gave Davis the 55, not saying they're wrong but it feels like they've lowered their top grades and handing out less. It's probably best and like I responded to one of your previous posts about Kurtz, EL makes good points but they might be off a bit.

When Kurtz got back from his injury he was the dh for a series against UNC. They came right at him, made him look bad the first game, he had 2 or 3 good at bats the second game, think he got a double but was a little rusty still. The third game they still attacked the zone and he crushed a couple homeruns. The next 9 games he added another 12 homeruns. He didn't get much over the plate the rest of the season. Coming off that hot streak he chased off the plate more than I saw him in the last 2 years. In Wakes last game against Yesavage, Kurtz got the only hit (I think) off Yesavage, a walk and a strikeout. In my opinion he's ranked too low in comparison to previous 1st basemen. Vaughn and Torkelson both right hand hitting and terrible fielders, McKay was a two way regarded higher on the mound. Pavin Smith was a high floor lower ceiling over rank in my opinion. His best season isn't as impressive as Kurtz worst going by ops. Schanuel was thrown to the fire before he could develop his bat against better stuff and velocity but is ops'ing around .775 in his last 30 games in the mlb.

The only one I compare Kurtz to is Schanuel but with a lot better power and not quite as good of pitch recognition (Schanuel is elite in that area but it might have been hurt from being promoted so soon).

Totally agree on them being under staffed. Sorry got long winded and a bit off topic.

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