94 Comments

Mock drafts out.

Law: Montgomery to the Bucs

FG: Kurtz

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Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Either one would make me happy. I like Kurtz a little better but Montgomery could be a better fielding Reynolds.

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I'm OK with Kurtz as long as we call him Colonel.

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Kurtz is Pavin Smith 2.0.

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Jul 11·edited Jul 11

Smith never had Kurtz plate discipline or power. Smith is also slower and less athletic and has been blocked by a pretty good first basemen in Arizona. I wasn't big on Smith when he was at UVA, the only thing he had was a high floor coming into the draft.

Kurtz worst year his true freshman season was better than any year by Smith including his draft year.

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I haven’t seen much of anything lauding Kurtz’s athleticism. Hasn’t he had shoulder issues too?

Also, keep in mind here, my take is a fairly lazy comp (1B, LH, ACC school, likely top 10).

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Jul 11·edited Jul 11

Cool, I watched a lot of each, Smith was a very good college hitter but never hit the ball hard. Kurtz has almost as many homeruns as Smith had extra base hits. Kurtz walked nearly 80 or so more times as Smith. Kurtz probably struck out a good bit more but I'd put this in the Kevin Newman category (weak contact out of the zone by Smith). Kurtz had more steals without getting caught while Smith got thrown out probably half the time.

Kurtz is a better athlete in by my eye, only thing I can suggest is try to find video on Kurtz defense highlights and Smiths. I can remember Kurtz making a couple of really good throws that surprised me, one making it on a backup and the other was a cut off he made the cut 3 and nailed the runner at third.

Watching both in college, I wouldn't have had Smith in the top 20 of a draft, somewhere in the 20's because his floor.

Kurtz is in my top 5, and would have been in my top 10 last year. I really think he's going to hit for average and power, with great defense at first. I really think he could be a dang good right fielder if given the chance, he has a strong arm (he was throwing high 80's touching low 90's coming out of high school.

I think Smith played in several more college games than Kurtz between 20 and 30.

Kurtz was pitched around early this year, then had the minor shoulder injury. When he came back he started getting pitched too. After 2 weeks that stopped because he crushed almost everything over the plate (I think 14 homeruns in 10 games). After that stretch he was pitched around again. He had a ridiculous on base average, but being pitched around probably cost him in batting average and more strikeouts.

I could be wrong but Kurtz floor is higher than Pavin Smiths ceiling.

Kurtz injuries was a cracked rib in 2023 CWS and a minor shoulder injury in 2024 that he came back from and dominated after.

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I’m sure you’ve watched far more of both of them, We’ll just disagree and that’s ok. I just can’t get behind taking a 1B top 15 because the track record is terrible. And I know it’s still early, but Schanuel isn’t really lighting it up either for a recent example. If you compare college first round 1B to “the field” of college 1B, the field is decidedly better. So if they want to draft one of those, just make it Burke. Is he that much different at the plate anyway?

I’ve not seen anyone but you saying he can play the OF. That sounds like “Torkelson can play 3B” hyperbole. So if Kurtz doesn’t hit, that’s probably…it as far as any kind of value.

If they draft him, of course I’ll root for him. And when he inevitably hits 30 homers for the Bucs as they take the NLC division in 2027, I’ll gladly make a donation to a charity of your choice.

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Sold.

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Like as in a LH 1B putting up a 128 wRC+ in 61 PAs in MLB right now good thing or all the bad minors numbers bad thing? I'd be disappointed with Smiths' prospect arc for a 1.9 pick for us but—same token—we'd be hoping the 128 wRC+ was for real right now if he was on our roster, too. (no snark intended btw, just making sure I understand the Pavin Smith "take")

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Seeing sentiment over at BD that fans there would be reticent to trade anything of value for a guy like Taylor Ward. Lonnie Freaking White, Barco and Tony Blanco Jr. too much? Prospect hugging seems like it can become a serious illness for small market fanbases. Barco would hurt but I wouldn't give a second though to White or Blanco heading out the door for a guy like Ward who lengthens our lineup. Respect the other take but this team needs hitting—and yes, even slightly above league average hitting would make a big difference in a lineup spot or two—and hoping that Olivares somehow changes his career trajectory isn't going to make it happen.

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A little bit of prospect hugging is ok and normal for a small market franchise, but if you trust your management group there’s nothing wrong with moving some guys. If you have a good front office you’ll win more than you lose trading the non-elite prospects, and even in some cases the elite guys. Look at the Cards and Matt Liberatore. Or pick pretty much any Padres non-Juan Soto deal.

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WTM reported yesterday that Cotto had been released. Above it says he was placed on the IL. I know info at the minor league level is hard to get (even from official sources) but is there any clarity on this?

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The original transaction log did say released. When I went to write it up they changed it. Always fun lol.

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MiLB.com changed the entry some time today. So IL it is. Makes more sense at least.

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I was double checking, cause I missed the released comment yesterday. Made me kind of anxiously awaiting the story behind why he would be released. But, appears it was a clerical error. The usual culprit

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Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I know a power grab by Jeffy when I see one. ;)

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Muwahahahah

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Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Bubba and Tommy have bullied Bowie by giving up just 3 runs in 21 innings while racking up 27 strikeouts over their last two series.

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Bowie has the same number of 100+ wRC+ hitters this Pirates roster does :)

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Jul 11·edited Jul 11

Haven't been on here much lately due to life in general. Good Life stuff. Check the game thread to get the vibe of the game when I can. Guess I missed people getting sassy. But I feel like I know a lot of you without knowing you. I always appreciate a witty comment. When Bobby Ski and I open our pierogi stand by the sea you are all welcome to a onion and kraut lil gem. Buy a dozen get a desert filled rogi for free.

Who's ready for the draft.

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In the end, I'm game for a little scuffle, and calling someone a diddly doo wop. All we ask is just be respectful to the community. We're all angsty Pirates fans begging for a competitive organization

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Jul 11·edited Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

As they say in the dirty South where I lay my head at night. "Y'all them boys got to tusslin and next thing you know they were buying each other beers". That's my style.

I'm sure they say that up in Pittsburgh. Just plug in yinz.

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The draft!! Always a fun distraction. Four days!

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Plz no more Mitch Jebbs.

We can almost game the first 10 picks out a bit at this point. If Kurtz gets past Oakland there's a good chance he could make it to 9. Wetherholt isn't getting past the Royals at 6. If Caglianone gets past 5 he could fall to 9 if the Angels don't want 1B two years in a row. Based on Law's mock today it feels unlikely both Burns and Smith are sitting around at 9 but one of them being there could be 50/50.

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Personally, I feel if there's any given, it's Burns to Colorado. I feel that one in my gut

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Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I feel that as well, Cags and Condon only slightly.

Burns 90%

Cags 5%

Condon 5%

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And as I'm reading through more mocks, even though they don't have it going that way, White Sox and Angels each taking a prep player just feels right. Both gunned for it and failed miserably, so I think both go into burn it down mode and take prep players.

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I could see the ChiSox taking Cags, but if he's not there probably a prep. The Angel's could go anywhere but a prep player seems right unless Burns or Smith gets to them, then I think they go there.

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Law has that one too. It sounds right. They can't get pitchers to go there. They could take Hagen Smith too but Burns seems more likely.

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It’s probably a 1% chance, but I would love it if Brecht somehow made it to their pick in the 30’s.

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When they were discussing him on BA hotsheet yesterday, all I could think was he's Kyle Nicolas lol

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He's getting Paul Skenes fastball with better shape comps so that'd be fun

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Site Maintenance Stuff:

I think this site is pretty good vis-a-vis the personal attacks stuff. But I have noticed one or two comment threads where someone goes off on someone calling them an idiot or stupid or a troll or what have you...

I don't want anything to do with those things. Some people, I guess, live to insult others. Some people - in a textual format - can take entertainingly ascerbic and have it taken by the reader as hostile. Me? I like a curmudgeon. I can even enjoy entertainingly ascerbic. What you sometimes need in these formats is a 40 lb bag of salt.

Politics? Leave that stuff at the door. Our outside world is way too hostile. This is the best baseball site I know and it needs all of our help to remain insulated. My mom always said polite people don't talk about politics or religion. And also, "If you can't say anything nice..."

So yeah.

Take that, you guys!

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TWO carrots for Wabbit.

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I'm so numb to brutal comment sections that I barely even notice any tension here amidst the ongoing healthy dialog, so hat tip to 99% of yinz.

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I get myself in trouble because I treat all you like drinking buddies bs'ng over the game and there's no such thing as drinking buddies that aren't absolutely brutal to each other, lol.

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Come down to Argentina, and we'll have some drinks. Open invitation.

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I'm an Aston Villa guy and we've won a pair of Emis: Martinez and Buendia, so that's an invitacion I can get with. So sad to see Douglas Louis go.

I'm seeing you guys talking produce...

Heh-heh. I spent some time on the Pacific Coast of Mexico, in Nayarit, and I could live there forever. Fresh does not describe the year-round farming around La Penita! The bay was chock-full of fish and the market was right there on the beach. The markets were fresh about every other day and, you know? No plastics. No wasteful wrapping. The food was so fresh and inexpensive you could just not - as a gringo - imagine.

Senora Lucy opened her house 2 or 3 times a week and put tables on the sidewalk and streets and I've never had anything like her pozole.

I just hope that little town doesn't get too developed. It was the most lovely place I've ever been.

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My man.

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Jul 11·edited Jul 11

I supposed to hang with Alexis Mac Allister some time after Copa. I will see if he wants to swing by before heading back to Liverpool.

Darwin and Lucho were supposed to come but something came up.

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Well.. he's welcome here to. You guys can all come down. We're in the traslasierras. MacAllister, no doubt, knows where that is. I'll have my father-in-law kill a ternero or a lechon from his farm, and we'll eat like you have never eaten before. The mayor will probably come by and give him a royal welcome (since the major is friends with my wife). MacAllister's brother (or cousin, I forget) who plays for Argentina Jrs. is not welcome though. He absolutely tormented Belgrano, my team, the last two times that they have played... lol.

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I live on a farm up here so if I can get my produce and eggs past customs we could have a feast. As you may be able to tell my team is Liverpool FC. If you invite Suarez make sure there are chew toys there. Ain't trying to get bit by El Pistolero. I will tell Mac to leave his relatives at home.

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Not that talking about the Pirates is healthy in any way.

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I suspect Borucki may be activated from the 60-day DL tomorrow. If so, someone has to be pushed off the 26-man and 40-man. Dennis Sanatana, Brent Honeywell, and Ryder Ryan seem like the obvious candidates.

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Maybe send down all three?

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Bednar is coming back too…

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Hell, call up Peralta, too.

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Not sure if this was posted anywhere. But it is interesting.

https://fansided.com/posts/orioles-latest-jackson-holliday-trade-reports-pirates-biggest-red-flag-yet

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I'm pretty sure this has been confirmed as fake news.

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Something was mentioned about the DK report in one of the threads yesterday, and I don't believe it. There were a couple other people (Robert Murray, Terry Sawchik, and Noah Hiles) who refuted it, and I'm going to believe them over anything DK says.

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Jul 11·edited Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Here, here. I only believe bmac.

Your chap get a pangolin figure yet?

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lol we went to get the pangolin after school one day, and of course by that time he had completely changed his mind on which specific animal he wanted. It's too far back to remember at this point. I know we've gotten a Watusi bull, a black bull, a red panda, and many many many many many more since then.

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Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

The Fleer or Upper Deck of parenthood. Ain't it grand?

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It's fun, learning all these new animals and different derivatives of them lol additionally, it gave me a fantastic idea for what I want to do to finish my sleeve on my left arm. Going get get some form of the more obscure ones he's become fascinated with (like an okapi).

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Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Tattoo sleeves? Both my arms are done. Most of my core as well. Have a session tomorrow actually. If you haven't experienced it the ribs are a b with an itch. Keeping it PG.

Sorry to the rest of the forum to have to follow our conversation.

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Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

First off, congratulations to Anthony for keeping this going for a year. I truly appreciate a place to come read and discuss all things Pirates, without the personal drama of the old place. Here’s to many more years of continued success.

Next, I think I’d rather see the Pirates deal Jones to acquire a middle of the order bat(s) with years of control, than Chandler, Harrington, or Barco. Don’t get me wrong, I love Jones and hopefully he will have a great career.

The reason I would choose him over the others is trade value. Jones has the ability to bring back better player(s) because he has proven his capabilities in The Show. I also think Chandler or Harrington can slot into his spot next year without much or any drop off in performance.

Trading Jones to Baltimore this month or more likely next winter for a couple of their top hitting prospects, or one current MLB player and a hitting prospect makes sense in my head.

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WADR, Scott, trade Jared Jones? The 45th Best SP in MLB based on 90 innings pitched - pretty much a bona fide #2 SP at the MLB level? Six (6) years of control? As far as I am concerned, he and Skenes are untouchable, and we go from there with plenty of tradeable pitching talent in our back pocket!

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A perfectly reasonable position.

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Scott Kliesen. Nice post. On a normal day when I see some of our membership going off the rails on possible trades, I just scroll on by. For me, it's a little like mock trade articles, because its all guess work and nice to think about and all, but it just isn't gonna happen.

This post, on the other hand, is a "trade post" that is interesting because it puts Bucco skin in the game. Trade a budding star for a number of needed pieces then hope you don't run into each other in the World Series. This post makes a bit of sense, even though it probably isn't going to happen.

I was positing the other day if we come to selling at the deadline, Chapman is a rental that can get you something good in return. I saw on MLB trade rumors somehow, cause I never read that stuff, that the bucs were trying to get some outfield help from the Angels. Interesting to know.

Nice post, man.

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Jul 11·edited Jul 11Author

Not the worst idea. He's got nearly 100 IP of dominant performance to show, and a lat issue wouldn't scare teams the way an arm or shoulder issue would.

And in the Pirates case, presuming none of them are traded, Bubba, Harrington, or Ash could probably all step to the show right now if Pirates needed.

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Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Here's one to chew on: does Jones or Keller have more value?

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Oof. That is a tough one.

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Jones, and only because the market for Keller is often smaller, owing to the budget constraints that various teams have from time to time. You can shop Jones anywhere to anyone. Keller, only to competitors and only those with budget room. If I had to pick one though, without any monetary considerations, I would take Keller. I still think Jones is a little too high effort and a bit of an injury risk.

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With Skenes, I'd say Keller, without Skenes I'd say Jones.

Good question but for me Skenes consistency adds value to Keller's consistency. Without Skenes ridiculous potential to dominate, it would add value to Jones because some days Jones can be that ridiculous.

I give the nod to Keller because you pretty much know what you're going to get, in a trade it's probably Jones though.

Very hard question because depending on what you already have each brings an ability that is very desirable.

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I've been clamoring for Jones to be the piece to go because he's got a more limited pitch mix than Chandler and the league seems to have punched back a little since like mid-May: k/9 down to 8.6, bb/9 up to 4.1, FIP 4.02 and xFIP 4.60. Jones is fun to watch but he sort of reminds me of how Roansy and Ortiz did really well on their first pass through MLB. I suspect Jones doesn't have to execute quite as well as those two needed too because he's got a few ticks more velo than last year Roansy and Ortiz and the movement on his slider and fastball is gnarly but I'm not sure he's the March, April, May guy we saw always and the perceived value is closer to that right now than it could ever be. Guessing at injury prone-ness is always a crapshoot, too, but he's a smaller framed guy as well. Just what I've been thinking about when thinking about trades. He'd get us the most, he might be the riskiest, sell high.

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I know you’re not saying they’re identical, but neither Ro or Ortiz had success to the extent that Jones did. It also seems premature to just assume that since the league has punched back, he can’t counter either.

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I'm definitely not saying Jones is them. I'm just saying I'm not sure he's March/April/May Jones, either. His run to mid-May was very impressive and hitters couldn't do much but attack fastballs and hope one left the yard. I wouldn't be upset if we kept him but if we're going to trade a frontline SP I think I prefer him to Chandler for the reasons outlined above and because Chandler has more pitches and an extra year of control at this point.

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What he said.

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Jul 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Somewhere in a parking lot behind a Kohls in Florida, Tim Williams is sitting in his sensible Japanese sedan eating fast food and getting high off the smell of his own farts, while writing the next great derivative sci fi super hero mashup novel series, and is laughing to himself that this community commenting issue has followed you here.

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This is an inaccurate assessment. My novels are more about animals. I just use super villains as an inspiration for all of my characters, since every character is essentially a villain.

Other than that, everything else was accurate. The local Kohl's has a great remote area to smoke weed and people watch while I'm putting pen to paper.

Also, I had a spicy chicken salad from Portillo's last night and those hot peppers are hitting heavy today.

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you need to post more if you've been hiding this wit all along.

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Ha! My wife would tell you the shimmer fades away rather quickly…I’ve been around the pirates blogosphere since the onlybucs.net and Charlie bucsdugout days ‘05/‘06 range, mostly a lurker. Every once in a while like silent Bob I feel like I have something profound to add, or at least something that made me laugh.

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Very well written, JJ. Tim, John, and Wilbur had a nice thing going with PP for about 10 years. Anthony, thanks for picking up and making a lot of needed improvements. Appreciate the work of all of the writers, the knowledge base of the contributors, and the dependability of articles presented on a known schedule each day.

"Writing the rules on the wall" is probably a twice a year need. Following the Pirates is just that ridiculously frustrating. However, the presence and success of Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, and Bailey Falter to start 2024, and now, Paul Skenes, is reason enough to believe they are on the right track. Hard not to mention the unexpected level of quality from guys like Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester in recent spot starts, and Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington at AA. We need a bat or two, but that is the easy part of building a winner.

I am one of those who signed up in late July 2023, and I will extend as soon as I return home. Again, thanks to you, NOLA, and WTM for a very high quality product.

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What that guy said.

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Tim site is up and as good as ever, the question as always is for how long?

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Thanks for the tip. I just devoured a bunch of his latest content. Nice to have Tim back, nicer still to have a second pirate site worth reading.

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He's a really good baseball writer and I appreciate his analysis. He also seems to have profound personal issues and I truly hope he's found some professional assistance. I wish him and his site good fortune.

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👍

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I love the stories and transparency with his life and struggles.

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A lot of television these days is trauma-viewing so I get that it's popular

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He's a little too psychobabble for me. Injects too much of his own mental and emotional internal monologue into baseball writing which can come off as if you're reading one of those corporate inspiration posters on an office wall but somehow about baseball and mental health at the same time. Some folks might like that. He got very weirdly hostile to his readership for multiple stretches. I'm out on his stuff.

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I agree with all of this. His greatest strength as a writer has always been his grind and drive. He was prolific for a long period of time, but it seems that may have taken a toll on his personal life and mental health. I’d love to see him continue to write about the pirates because he offers a unique perspective.

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Agreed, and I wish he’d go back to allowing comments but can understand why he isn’t given what we’re going through here.

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I enjoy the commenting chaos being over here. I always did enjoy seeing what this community felt on matters, but it wears on you some days when you're the moderator.

Y'all support Anthony. Don't make it too chaotic for him. Leave me to my wild theories of baseball development in peace.

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👍

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Thats the funniest thing ive read in quite a while.

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Lmfao

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