I heard the Cease to Mariners rumors, and I don't understand it. It doesn't make as little sense as it would for the Pirates to acquire him who would go from hardly fringe to maybe fringe WC team, but the Mariners have all this high-end controllable pitching with success at the MLB level, only to acquire a pitcher?
Why does it make little sense for the Pirates? I mean, as it stands right now and the offseason is almost over, sure. But if they’re even semi-serious about winning, and this was earlier in the offseason, why not?
Well, it would make sense for the Pirates if it wasn't one move made in a vacuum. I'd be on board if it was a move made with a legitimate push to build an overall competitive roster. A serious team wouldn't trade for Cease while filling their gaping 1B hole with Rowdy Tellez, have very little idea who is playing 2B (I think it'll be Peggy), RF still mostly up in the air (likely Olivares), on top of you're banking on Davis putting the whole package together to be your everyday catcher.
So, if they were semi-serious and earlier in off-season, sure. At this point, they're better off hoping one of their pitching prospects turns into a Cease when they have an actual chance at winning.
Theoretically, sure. They could stand to improve 2B, OF, and bullpen first.
But even with bringing up Kirby and Gilbert, that's two recent examples of high-end pitchers they were able to develop. So why would they give up two controllable pitchers with high-end stuff that have shown MLB success, for two years of Cease? It's already an area of strength. Unless they're down on one of them, and trying to flip him. Would make more sense I guess if it were Hancock they were trading. Plus, you really only need 3 starters for the playoffs, and you already mentioned Castillo, Gilbert and Kirby.
Pirates had a big front office loss in the few days. Max Kwan stepped away from his position as director of player personnel. He was with the Pirates for exactly ten years, working his way up the front office chain. While most of his work was done in the States, what the Pirates lost was the person who closed the deals with the Pacific Rim players, including Bae, Tsung-Che and Shim, as well as players from Australia. That main connection for future signings from the area is lost. Doesn't mean that they can't use the current players to help sell the system, but Kwan did the dirty work getting players in. The upside for now (until at least next year) is that he isn't bringing that connection elsewhere. He was the reason that the Pirates are considered to be the top team in baseball for bringing in Pacific Rim amateur talent over the last five years.
Maybe the success in identifying and signing Shim caught other teams' attention? Or perhaps he'll work on the players' side and instead of recruiting for an organization, he'll represent players?
In any case, my first thought was it's a big loss (one of my favorite things about the organization in recent years was the increase in talent from the Pacific Rim) and my second thought was that it reminded me of how we lost some key FO members from Huntington's FO with the success in 2013-2015. Hopefully we had a structure in place where there is someone who can competently replace Kwan.
Wasn't his job back then, plus Ohtani wasn't an amateur. He worked closely with the scouting of Latin players at the start of his time. His job the last four years wasn't scouting. It was Stateside work, with the Pacific Rim stuff mixed in. He wasn't doing the initial scouting of the players, he was helping close the deals. There wouldn't be results from young kids signed within the last four years, it was all amateur players. It's a huge loss, trust me. No one has signed as many players from the Pacific Rim as the Pirates during that time, and no one has signed as many quality players. Shim was the top pitching prospect from that area, Bidois was the top. Po-Yu Chen was the top. He helped with Bae, which got everything started. That connection is now gone.
Oh obviously. The best baseball is being played in Japan now, with other Asian countries slowly catching up, so why would you want to be there when you can concentrate on an area where the sport is dying
Where do you think Ji-Hwan Bae is from? You also do understand that when you sign amateur players, they don't go right to the majors, right? Tsung-Che Cheng was just added to the 40-man roster. Shim is getting a lot of industry buzz. If you've read Anthony's work, you know Bidois and Po-Yu Chen have upside. They literally just added a kid from Australia 14 days ago, what do you expect from him at this point? Asia is improving rapidly at baseball and it's more popular there than anywhere else is the world (WBC TV ratings don't lie). That's not a connection you want to lose. This isn't "peak hype", it's still on the way up
Thanks for the info, and anytime an organization loses a Director of Player Personnel who has probably assisted and who has closed deals with top quality players from the Far East, there has to be a concern. Sounds like he is still being paid by the Pirates so you wonder what "stepped away" means. As a boss of mine always said about seemingly unexplainable issues "this thing has hair all over it"!
Without getting into details, he left on his own. He was still signed through January 2025, so he's not signing anywhere else before that out of respect to the team.
Somewhat related to something from the other day, but since Kwan has been with the Pirates for ten years, the current FO deserves very little if any credit. If anything, it might raise a red flag that they're not able to retain someone with demonstrated success, though the decision could be independent of his relationship with or confidence in the FO.
MLBTR has an unfortunate bit of int’l news — no Pirate connection yet. MLB has voided over 50 deals, both signed contracts and handshake deals, due to age fraud. Appears the buscones figured out how to circumvent the procedures adopted after the big age gate mess years ago. Few specifics. Article mentions 6-8 teams that were affected. No mention of the Pirates, but the list of teams doesn’t appear to be complete.
The Pirates have seldom been hit with this issue. I recall the last time around they had a middling IF prospect who suddenly got older. Maybe one or two others. Of course, their int’l program was a farce back then, instead of just poor, so there were no top prospects to be impacted. They had one established major leaguer — Remember Enrique Wilson? — whose age got “adjusted.”
Really doesn't surprise me. Bribes, under the table money, falsifying birth records.....this is the way deals are done in many many parts of the world. MLB should have devoted resources to try and stamp this conduct out....but now they have a full-fledged cheating scandal and another black eye to their credit.
Tip of the cap to the Detroit Tigers for selecting Colt Keith as their 5th Round pick in the abbreviated 2020 Draft. Many had him as a second rounder at worst, but the Tigers had the guts to do some wishful thinking with that pick. Excellent offensive and defensive numbers at every stop in the minors and now he is signed for a possible 9 years with the Tigers - probably at 3B, and somewhere in the middle of the order.
Would be an interesting move if seattle sent woo or miller for cease... im not convinced that he is a huge upgrade over either of those two and they are losing the control battle by a lot in that swap
At first, I didn’t think that Cease rumor makes any sense. There isn’t that much of a difference between Woo/Miller and Cease, or doesn’t appear to be. On the other hand, if they trade one of Woo/Miller and keep one, Cease is an absurdly overqualified four in that rotation. That’s...pretty interesting. Double down on your strengths and make them super strong.
I would never say one stat tells the story. I look at all stats, but they all measure something different. No one is going to convince me Jose Quintana was a better pitcher than Dylan Cease in 2022 because of his xfip. I was just pointing out he is one of many inconsistent pitchers that are out there on the market.
That would be a hard argument to make because Dylan Cease had a better xFIP in 2022. And no, you can’t use one stat to tell the story, but defense independent pitching statistics do the best job of that. Clearly 2022 was an outlier, and he is probably better than he pitched last year.
I have seen Cease pitch plenty of games for several seasons, When his pitches are working, his stuff is filthy. When his pitches aren't working, it is painful to watch. I have no idea if he can make a comeback (similar to what Snell did in his career) or if he might be dealing with something else.
-xfip is fun to look at, more as a predictor tool as opposed to analyze how lucky or unlucky a pitcher was. I think the xfip is a lttle tough on fly ball/strike out pitchers that don't give up many hits. It might be too easy on pitchers that get ground outs and a lot of hits. But I know that when I look at xfips, so I still enjoy looking at the stats results.
The one that’s put up the 8th most WAR among pitchers since 2021. He’s a fairly decent 2, but of a particular type (lots of walks, lots of K’s) that end up making him a five and dive guy. Like Snell.
I agree. Then we can give them a cool nickname. So they have an identity. Then we can sell t shirts and donate proceeds to charity. Ok, I'm getting ahead of myself.
Trying to think of a tough sounding punny name. Punny not puny.
The only possibility is that Cease wants to be in Seattle with a contender and will agree to an extension. But, the Mariners have 5 excellent SP's ready to start the year, and Miller and Woo have not even logged a year in MLB. Castillo is 31, but Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, and Woo are all in their early to mid 20's - sounds like a really young and talented Rotation for Seattle in 2024 and beyond.
Hancock did very well early, but then lost time to a shoulder injury in '21 or '22 (not sure). They called him up to Seattle in Aug '23; made 3 starts that looked good, but then he had shoulder issues again. He finished 2023 on the 60 Day DL.
The Rangers have been paying "dead" money to de Grom for all of last year and at least half of this year which for both years amounts to around $50 mil. Scherzer is not so much of a bother since he had 27 Starts in 2023 and the Mets paid all but $10 mil of last year's salary and the Mets are on the hook for all but $12 mil of his $43 mil salary in 2024.
"Mariners have mostly shed salary without making a significant move".......that is until this weekend, when they signed Cole Tucker.
Well, it’s not like they have to pay Vanessa Hudgens.
I heard the Cease to Mariners rumors, and I don't understand it. It doesn't make as little sense as it would for the Pirates to acquire him who would go from hardly fringe to maybe fringe WC team, but the Mariners have all this high-end controllable pitching with success at the MLB level, only to acquire a pitcher?
Why does it make little sense for the Pirates? I mean, as it stands right now and the offseason is almost over, sure. But if they’re even semi-serious about winning, and this was earlier in the offseason, why not?
Well, it would make sense for the Pirates if it wasn't one move made in a vacuum. I'd be on board if it was a move made with a legitimate push to build an overall competitive roster. A serious team wouldn't trade for Cease while filling their gaping 1B hole with Rowdy Tellez, have very little idea who is playing 2B (I think it'll be Peggy), RF still mostly up in the air (likely Olivares), on top of you're banking on Davis putting the whole package together to be your everyday catcher.
So, if they were semi-serious and earlier in off-season, sure. At this point, they're better off hoping one of their pitching prospects turns into a Cease when they have an actual chance at winning.
They have a better chance winning playoff series with Castillo, Cease, Gilbert & Kirby. Compared to Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert & Miller.
Theoretically, sure. They could stand to improve 2B, OF, and bullpen first.
But even with bringing up Kirby and Gilbert, that's two recent examples of high-end pitchers they were able to develop. So why would they give up two controllable pitchers with high-end stuff that have shown MLB success, for two years of Cease? It's already an area of strength. Unless they're down on one of them, and trying to flip him. Would make more sense I guess if it were Hancock they were trading. Plus, you really only need 3 starters for the playoffs, and you already mentioned Castillo, Gilbert and Kirby.
They just got Jorge Polanco
Now maybe they'll get a more "experienced" starter. Weird return, but they needed a better 2B
You need a 4 man rotation in a seven game series
World Series Champion Texas Rangers say otherwise: Eovaldi, Montgomery, and Scherzer/Heaney
Diamondbacks: Gallen, Pfaadt, and Kelly
They bullpenned a game.
Ok. Both teams still went mainly 3-man rotations. Mantiply started 2 games.
Phillies went Wheeler, Nola, and Suarez. Cristopher Sanchez got 1 start.
Astros were closest to a 4-man rotation: Javier, Valdez, Verlander, and Urquidy all got at least 2 starts.
So, I'd say it's hardly a foregone conclusion you "need" a 4-man rotation.
I get that, but man I really am not sold that cease is really an improvement, if any, over miller or woo
Cease is an improvement over Miller or Woo
Pirates had a big front office loss in the few days. Max Kwan stepped away from his position as director of player personnel. He was with the Pirates for exactly ten years, working his way up the front office chain. While most of his work was done in the States, what the Pirates lost was the person who closed the deals with the Pacific Rim players, including Bae, Tsung-Che and Shim, as well as players from Australia. That main connection for future signings from the area is lost. Doesn't mean that they can't use the current players to help sell the system, but Kwan did the dirty work getting players in. The upside for now (until at least next year) is that he isn't bringing that connection elsewhere. He was the reason that the Pirates are considered to be the top team in baseball for bringing in Pacific Rim amateur talent over the last five years.
Maybe the success in identifying and signing Shim caught other teams' attention? Or perhaps he'll work on the players' side and instead of recruiting for an organization, he'll represent players?
In any case, my first thought was it's a big loss (one of my favorite things about the organization in recent years was the increase in talent from the Pacific Rim) and my second thought was that it reminded me of how we lost some key FO members from Huntington's FO with the success in 2013-2015. Hopefully we had a structure in place where there is someone who can competently replace Kwan.
sounds great on paper but 10 years ia a long time with not much results in the major leagues
where was this guy on Ohtani?
Wasn't his job back then, plus Ohtani wasn't an amateur. He worked closely with the scouting of Latin players at the start of his time. His job the last four years wasn't scouting. It was Stateside work, with the Pacific Rim stuff mixed in. He wasn't doing the initial scouting of the players, he was helping close the deals. There wouldn't be results from young kids signed within the last four years, it was all amateur players. It's a huge loss, trust me. No one has signed as many players from the Pacific Rim as the Pirates during that time, and no one has signed as many quality players. Shim was the top pitching prospect from that area, Bidois was the top. Po-Yu Chen was the top. He helped with Bae, which got everything started. That connection is now gone.
would rather the team invests in the Mon Valley than the Pacific Rim
Oh obviously. The best baseball is being played in Japan now, with other Asian countries slowly catching up, so why would you want to be there when you can concentrate on an area where the sport is dying
of course buying something when it is at peak hype is always a great investment
not one pacific rim player has ever reached the majors with the pirates
would much rather Walker, Kirriloff, Law, Happ, Bednar be part of our club
Where do you think Ji-Hwan Bae is from? You also do understand that when you sign amateur players, they don't go right to the majors, right? Tsung-Che Cheng was just added to the 40-man roster. Shim is getting a lot of industry buzz. If you've read Anthony's work, you know Bidois and Po-Yu Chen have upside. They literally just added a kid from Australia 14 days ago, what do you expect from him at this point? Asia is improving rapidly at baseball and it's more popular there than anywhere else is the world (WBC TV ratings don't lie). That's not a connection you want to lose. This isn't "peak hype", it's still on the way up
Thanks for the info, and anytime an organization loses a Director of Player Personnel who has probably assisted and who has closed deals with top quality players from the Far East, there has to be a concern. Sounds like he is still being paid by the Pirates so you wonder what "stepped away" means. As a boss of mine always said about seemingly unexplainable issues "this thing has hair all over it"!
I don't wonder, I talked to him :)
Without getting into details, he left on his own. He was still signed through January 2025, so he's not signing anywhere else before that out of respect to the team.
Not good. That’s one of the precious few areas where this FO has shown any sign at all of competence.
Somewhat related to something from the other day, but since Kwan has been with the Pirates for ten years, the current FO deserves very little if any credit. If anything, it might raise a red flag that they're not able to retain someone with demonstrated success, though the decision could be independent of his relationship with or confidence in the FO.
So now you're expecting competence, Asking a lot my friend.
MLBTR has an unfortunate bit of int’l news — no Pirate connection yet. MLB has voided over 50 deals, both signed contracts and handshake deals, due to age fraud. Appears the buscones figured out how to circumvent the procedures adopted after the big age gate mess years ago. Few specifics. Article mentions 6-8 teams that were affected. No mention of the Pirates, but the list of teams doesn’t appear to be complete.
The Pirates have seldom been hit with this issue. I recall the last time around they had a middling IF prospect who suddenly got older. Maybe one or two others. Of course, their int’l program was a farce back then, instead of just poor, so there were no top prospects to be impacted. They had one established major leaguer — Remember Enrique Wilson? — whose age got “adjusted.”
Really doesn't surprise me. Bribes, under the table money, falsifying birth records.....this is the way deals are done in many many parts of the world. MLB should have devoted resources to try and stamp this conduct out....but now they have a full-fledged cheating scandal and another black eye to their credit.
Signing 16-yr-olds doesn’t help.
Tip of the cap to the Detroit Tigers for selecting Colt Keith as their 5th Round pick in the abbreviated 2020 Draft. Many had him as a second rounder at worst, but the Tigers had the guts to do some wishful thinking with that pick. Excellent offensive and defensive numbers at every stop in the minors and now he is signed for a possible 9 years with the Tigers - probably at 3B, and somewhere in the middle of the order.
Would be an interesting move if seattle sent woo or miller for cease... im not convinced that he is a huge upgrade over either of those two and they are losing the control battle by a lot in that swap
At first, I didn’t think that Cease rumor makes any sense. There isn’t that much of a difference between Woo/Miller and Cease, or doesn’t appear to be. On the other hand, if they trade one of Woo/Miller and keep one, Cease is an absurdly overqualified four in that rotation. That’s...pretty interesting. Double down on your strengths and make them super strong.
Which Dylan Cease? The 2022 runner up in the Cy Young with a 2.20 ERA or the 2023 Dylan Cease with a 4.58 ERA.
xFIP tells the story: 3.50 in 2022. 4.08 in 2023. You’re buying the K rate and getting him out of Chicago.
I would never say one stat tells the story. I look at all stats, but they all measure something different. No one is going to convince me Jose Quintana was a better pitcher than Dylan Cease in 2022 because of his xfip. I was just pointing out he is one of many inconsistent pitchers that are out there on the market.
That would be a hard argument to make because Dylan Cease had a better xFIP in 2022. And no, you can’t use one stat to tell the story, but defense independent pitching statistics do the best job of that. Clearly 2022 was an outlier, and he is probably better than he pitched last year.
I have seen Cease pitch plenty of games for several seasons, When his pitches are working, his stuff is filthy. When his pitches aren't working, it is painful to watch. I have no idea if he can make a comeback (similar to what Snell did in his career) or if he might be dealing with something else.
-xfip is fun to look at, more as a predictor tool as opposed to analyze how lucky or unlucky a pitcher was. I think the xfip is a lttle tough on fly ball/strike out pitchers that don't give up many hits. It might be too easy on pitchers that get ground outs and a lot of hits. But I know that when I look at xfips, so I still enjoy looking at the stats results.
The one that’s put up the 8th most WAR among pitchers since 2021. He’s a fairly decent 2, but of a particular type (lots of walks, lots of K’s) that end up making him a five and dive guy. Like Snell.
The inconsistency of the available pitchers in the 2023 off-season has been very consistent.
Great comp to Snell. I will take all of the walks if you don't give up hits. The downfall as you stated is it limits your innings.
Check out your nice comparison
2022 lead leaguer in walks- Cease but on the positive 184 innings 126 hits.
2023 lead leaguer in walks- Snell but on the positive 180 innings 115 hits.
Like the Bucs attempted to do with Chapman? I'm all about super strong things. Like liquor, Superman, Marcano.
Yeah to an extent haha. If you can’t really find what you want for your biggest needs and weaknesses, why not?
I agree. Then we can give them a cool nickname. So they have an identity. Then we can sell t shirts and donate proceeds to charity. Ok, I'm getting ahead of myself.
Trying to think of a tough sounding punny name. Punny not puny.
The only possibility is that Cease wants to be in Seattle with a contender and will agree to an extension. But, the Mariners have 5 excellent SP's ready to start the year, and Miller and Woo have not even logged a year in MLB. Castillo is 31, but Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, and Woo are all in their early to mid 20's - sounds like a really young and talented Rotation for Seattle in 2024 and beyond.
Hancock is young too. Not sure how well he has done. Mariners may be my new second team.
Hancock did very well early, but then lost time to a shoulder injury in '21 or '22 (not sure). They called him up to Seattle in Aug '23; made 3 starts that looked good, but then he had shoulder issues again. He finished 2023 on the 60 Day DL.
Thanks for the info
The Rangers have been paying "dead" money to de Grom for all of last year and at least half of this year which for both years amounts to around $50 mil. Scherzer is not so much of a bother since he had 27 Starts in 2023 and the Mets paid all but $10 mil of last year's salary and the Mets are on the hook for all but $12 mil of his $43 mil salary in 2024.
Yeah Rangers really must be livid, that albatross killed them last year.
They also got to get him a fancy dancy ring. Those things aren't cheap. I think he even got to be in the parade.