21 Comments
Mar 17·edited Mar 17

Cherington gave a good interview yesterday with Brown and Wehner, and for those who didn't hear it, a few things that stood out to me were:

1. They'll probably roster more than five starters, which to me implies we'll see some games like the Priester/Ortiz game but also might be a reference to keeping Contreras and/or Falter, even if they're coming out of the pen. They do not plan to use openers.

2. However, there will be some pitchers who begin in AAA and "won't be happy about it" but of course they don't want players to be happy about being sent to AAA. Does this refer to Jones or Ortiz or Priester, or maybe the NRI veterans (though Lauer doesn't appear to be on a schedule to be ready so it would just be Anderson and maybe Peralta)?

3. He noted that the good Pirates teams in PNC have had two CF-quality outfielders, which is why they're excited to bring MAT in (as an aside, the article at pirates.com quotes Keller's strong endorsement of adding MAT).

4. They'll probably rest guys more frequently in April as they build guys up, which was made in reference to whether MAT could be ready by Opening Day (i.e., he doesn't have to be ready to play every day).

I may have missed it, but I don't think the catching situation came up (I was also trying to watch Jones during this time).

Expand full comment

Who is Jones? Just kidding.

I did look up Spencer Strider and he does throw 3 pitches - The FB and SL 93%, and then he mixes in the CH for a whole 7%. Of the 3,000 pitches in 2023 he threw a little over 200 Changeups. But that's about a 50% increase from 2022 when he threw 96% FB & SL and about 4% CH or about 100 pitches. Maybe that's how Jones can break into MLB. Wow, seems like only yesterday we were talking about Pirate phenom Tyler Glasnow and how he needed to throw a 3rd pitch - a CH!

Expand full comment

Thanks for this!

Expand full comment

I’m starting to think this is the 26:

Rotation:

1. Keller 2. Perez 3. Ortiz 4. Gonzales 5. Priester

Bullpen: 1. Bednar 2. Chapman 3. Holderman 4. Mlodinzski 5. Borucki 6. Hernández 7. Honeywell 8. Contreras

Lineup: SS Cruz LF Reynolds 3B Hayes RF Suwinski DH McCutchen 1B Tellez C Davis 2B Triolo CF Taylor

Bench: C Delay, 1B/OF Joe, 1B/OF McKinney, SS/2B Peguero

DFA: Falter and CSN

IL: Brubaker 60, Burrows 60, Moreta 60, Grandal 10

German, Jones, and Lauer replacing whoever doesn’t pitch well the first month of the season.

Expand full comment

I think your roster is very plausible but I'm guessing that Anderson makes it over Ortiz so that they can give Ortiz some starts in AAA. It's not a big deal to roster Anderson because either he'll succeed or they'll need that roster spot when Lauer or German is ready. I also think MAT pushes McKinney to AAA with Olivares taking the bench spot.

As for DFAs, with the way Davis has been performing, I'd DFA Sanchez before CSN, and I'm looking at Fleming's start today as a chance to make his case for a 40-man spot. With Lauer, Peralta, Anderson, German, and Jones all likely to join the team at some point, there's a lot of trimming of pitchers that needs to happen with Falter being an obvious choice and Fleming and Selby the next most likely candidates.

Expand full comment

I don’t disagree with most of what you say but why even bring Anderson into the fold. If they go non roster invitee for the last starter spot, I hope it’s Jones.

Expand full comment

Why is Anderson in the conversation? 7 hitless spring innings vs 192ip since 2020 41hr 78bb and 6.19era? Is his stuff much better than Falter? Falter has looked awful but last year was serviceable and Cherington was clearly saying he was keeping the guys without options I thought

Expand full comment

Do I trust Anderson's ST results? No. And I'd rather have Ortiz or Jones in the rotation. But, I think when a FO signs a veteran like Anderson and then he performs well in ST, they're likely to roster him (this is all contingent on one more good outing). And more than that, I'm skeptical as to whether they'll roster Jones, and I'd save the year of control by giving him a few starts in Indy. So Anderson becomes a placeholder until Jones, Lauer, or German are ready. Just guessing how they'll handle it.

Expand full comment

Anderson isn’t making the roster. Falter probably gets DFA’d. You can get by with 4 starters through the first few weeks of the season with off days. Too much thinking goes into *who goes north* the 26 man is very fluid at the start of the season.

Expand full comment

Check the schedule--we have fewer off days in April than we do in May, June, and August (obviously, July has more with the AS break). There is no way we can get by with a 4-man rotation and are probably more likely to go with a 6-man rotation.

Expand full comment

My bad, the April schedule is atypical of past April’s. I still would be surprised if they went with a 6 man rotation

Expand full comment

I agree that I don't worry much about the opening day roster. But BC said they'd go with maybe 6 starters. Probably because this April there aren't off days like usual.

Expand full comment

Getting late in spring training for Bednar to get game ready by opening day. Was scheduled to throw off a mound this week but has had no game action to date.

Expand full comment

I think he’s been throwing just not in games but if he doesn’t pitch in a game early this week, I will be concerned.

Expand full comment
author

Got my copy of John’s book this morning. Was waiting for me when I woke up. Excited to dive into it

Expand full comment

I know three books came out in rapid fire, which wasn't actually the plan. I kept the price low on this one so everyone can enjoy it. As usual, I appreciate Anthony allowing me to share more about my project. I guarantee that you'll find this one interesting. It's all Pirates players, but as I said above, who doesn't like the stories of climbs to the majors, just hoping to get in one game. The players are from 1889-1990 and include four players who were on World Series teams and a player who was destined to be a Pirates player due to his name. I appreciate all of those who purchase one, or even just pass it on to other friends who might be interested. This one should have a wider appeal than the other two books, but it is all Pirates players.

Thank you.

Expand full comment

I forgot to mention. There won't be a fourth book for at least six months. Also, all proceeds from these March sales (Amazon will pay in late May) are going towards Father's Day and my parents both having birthdays on the same day, which is the day after Father's Day this year. So yeah, it's an expensive month.

So unless you hate my parents, please consider purchasing or just sharing it :)

Expand full comment

SP Jared Jones, CF Gilberto Celestino, and OF Billy McKinney continue to make it tough on the decision-makers.

Jones will probably start at AAA after the recent outings of Ortiz and Priester have probably locked them in at #4 and #5 in the Rotation. And, don't sleep on Domingo German who had 2 Plus Run Value pitches in 2023 - the Curve that he threw 40.9% of his pitches at +5 RV, and the Changeup that he threw 20.9% of his pitches at +4 RV. Both of those pitches were + RV pitches in 2022 and 2021 also.

Celestino, who is out of Options, has hit well and played defense well. Why not keep he and Taylor? Not sure how game ready Michael Taylor will be, and Olivares and Palacios are not CF's and have not been very impressive in ST. Billy McKinney is showing he still has something left in the tank, but a tough numbers situation with the Pirates, who need to identify a young CF until either Lonnie White, Jr or Shalin Polanco are ready.

Expand full comment

Didn’t know that Peralta could hit 95. I’m actually ok with him and Honeywell getting the long man roll over Contreras. Since they both have pitches to neutralize lefties I say good bye to Falter and Contreras and make room for them.

Expand full comment

Both Honeywell and Peralta are pitching well in ST, but their numbers at the MLB level have not been that good. Not sure the Pirates want to give up on either Contreras or Falter and none of the 4 guys we are talking about have any MiLB Options remaining. Could they be looking at Domingo German as a SP/RP to start 2024? His 25.7 K%/7.7 BB% is very impressive, as is his 4.56 ERA in 19 Starts last year for the Yankees.

Expand full comment

I’m a big German believer. I’ve read his issues are behind him and the pirates did their due diligence. He put up better numbers than anyone in the pirates rotation not named Keller. He was able to do this as a raging alcoholic. If he can remain clean and sober, Pirates might have the steal of the offseason.

Expand full comment