His best defensive play might have been the catch he made in Los Angelas in the play-offs..... The one he pretended like it was a homer until everyone cheered, then he showed the ball.
Valdez has below-average speed and fringy arm strength, which limits his effectiveness as a defender. He lacks range at second base, his primary position, and has played everywhere but center field and pitcher as a pro. Boston also gave him brief looks at third base and left field after the trade, though he doesn't have enough arm for the hot corner.
According to BR he was replacement level (0.0 WAR!) in 2023 despite having an OPS+ of 103. That reminds me of Tellez who even in his best hitting years was barely better than replacement level due to his poor defense and base running.
One of the reasons why I like Horwitz. The defense raises the floor a little bit.
Broader question: should the big guy at first base mostly be a thing of the past for this reason? The Rowdy’s and Vogelbach’s and Jesus Aguilar’s struggle to provide a ton of value beyond the home runs. Maybe you have them as DH’s but not in the field unless there’s an emergency.
I hope this means they are eyeing a potential trade for IKF, since they just replaced his 7.5 million salary with a league minimum salary with only a modenst downgrade in performance.
I like it, but I doubt the Mets would go for it at this juncture, since Oviedo's health is still a question mark. I doubt that you would be able to get both Mauricio and Acuna though. Probably just 1 or the other. Take your pick.
If Thomas batted left handed definitely, I think he can hit but PNC might suppress his power output. Being a right handed hitter playing in the PCL tends to worry me a bit.
How about Austin Hays for RF. .260 hitter with 30 plus doubles. See if 8 million a year for 2 yrs= 16-17 million total would work. He is still 28-29 yrs old.
I think Hays would be fine. I think it would be better to sign Hays and Kepler. Hays plays against all lefties. Substituting for Kepler and Cruz on different days. Reynolds plays some first base against lefties allowing cook some outfield time with Hays and one of Cruz or Kepler. That way between the three, Cruz,Kepler, and Horowitz none are beat up by lefthanders.
See below, I was mostly joking. To me he is at best a DH as his defense has barely been playable. And his level of hitting only just isn't worth it. He basically pops an occasional homerun. Maybe Braves will change something.
He did have 18 homers already in 100 plus games when the Pirates traded for him. I think that was ahead of all Pirates at the time. With the Pirates, he was pretty hard to watch defensively and offensively. Only 3 homers with the Pirates and I think those came late in the season.
Totally get why we might think certain players might prosper after leaving, and I’d imagine you’re being more than a little tongue in cheek here, but not sure I’m seeing it with BDLC.
I do t k ow if this has been asked or written, but where do you guys think Horwitz is gonna bat. He’s a high on base, good contact with little power (so far). Sounds like 1st or second or 5th in the order, he is slow footed so not your old fashioned lead off hitter…..Thinking Cutch leading off follow by Horwitz, BRey, Cruz, Bart, Kepler, IKF, Hayes, Nick????
I was thinking Cutch and Horwitz 1 and 2, at least against RHP (I'd bat Horwitz lower against lefties). That should mean that the opposing starter will run up their pitch count by the end of the 1st.
As for the lack of speed, I wouldn't worry about that to open a game but then bat a good base stealer in the 9th spot so that the rest of the game we might have him on base for two guys with good plate skills.
I think left field is currently open (Reynolds in right). Cook, Yorke, and Suwinski the current leaders for the position. I lean Yorke on hitting, Cook on fielding and Suwinski on power potential.
Who were those guys from Houston and Arizona I think you said were blocked? Remember them being smaller OF types. Would like a speedy gut at the top. With all the bases being stolen these days. And please not Bae.
I'm kinda inclined to ignore the 7th percentile (eek!) sprint speed and hit Horwitz leadoff. Or hit Cutch leadoff. He still has high-level strike zone judgment.
Call me old school, but I hate the idea of someone clogging up the bases out of the leadoff spot. The Pirates have a hard enough time advancing baserunners and putting the ball in play.
It was considered sabermetrically advanced to ignore baserunning until recently. Even still, the metrics do not take account of advancing baserunners with outs and so forth sufficiently IMO. Ask the Pirates and us fans how that works out, watching runner after runner stranded because no one could advance them or score them with a simple sacrifice fly.
With Cutch's days off typically against RH (not in a platoon manner) and Horwitz small MLB sample size struggling against LH, they could make a good job share at the top of the order pending any further roster changes. I still see too many IKF in the leadoff suggestions (and some of that based on his 2024 usage). His track record is long at this point... bottom of the order and hopefully a professional job at SS.
I agree, but I have grown (been worn out?) that as a one year solution he may be ok given the internal and in many ways external options. At some level I trust him to make the basic plays and make the right decisions when the ball is in his hand. Maybe metrics show he gets fewer outs, but if he can be the voice/glove of reason it is tolerable knowing offense will have to come from elsewhere. Trying to trigger people maybe - kind of like Jeter on the defensive side. Now offensively there are several oceans between the two. A late EDIT/Addition - with a healthy Hayes or Triolo playing third there are outs gained, hopefully making up for a few lost at SS.
I already penciled Kepler in LF with Cook backing him. But if that was to happened or a similar player (Profar, Verdugo) they might fit better at the 5th.
I would that they not bother with Kepler. They really need someone who can cover the large LF at PNC, and Kepler struggles in RF. I also think that his better days are here and gone.
He is OK in RF: nothing special and not getting younger in the legs. Verdugo is a headcase. There is a reason every team trades him after a season or two. I sure hope they don't plan on bringing him in.
Profar probably priced himself out of Pittsburgh. He also probably will be overpriced right now after a career year that he is unlikely to repeat.
I know you asked for an actual lineup, but since I have bought into the basic new school for a batting order (not everything). Just line them up by career (or more likely what is predicted) OBP, adjust for some L/R balance for when pitching changes are made, and bonus points (tie breakers?) for power. So regarding Horwitz he does sound like a good top of the order hitter but I wouldn't say 1,2 or 5 more 1-5 as I don't really feel 3 or 4 have to be power slots.. With his current OBP against LH I don't see him at the top or maybe even playing vs. LH although I admit his MLB sample size is small but surely they have MiLB splits as well. If he has not hit LH his entire career and I am assuming he got the opportunity in MiLB then I find it hard to believe he will quickly learn now facing the best LH in the world. Strong side of a platoon if the hitting is legit is still a huge upgrade.
The Pirates made a move they had to make in getting a "youngish" LH hitting bat with just less than a full year of MLB Service - lots of player control. He played 1B and 2B for Toronto and did well both offensively and defensively. Maintain his playing of both 1B and 2B, and hope he continues to hit for average and 15-20 HR power. And can Hague wake up IKF?
How close are the Pirates to having the Players Union file a Grievance against them for failure to properly use Revenue Sharing Dollars to stay competitive. Nutting is too busy pocketing revenue sharing dollars rather than using those dollars for the purposes they were designated - to BUY talent and try to remain competitive. I would rather see the Pirates step up to a player salary level of $100 - $110 mil, and join at least the next higher two teams in the Central - Milwaukee, and Cincy, because that is where they are heading. The Cubs are just starting to flex their financial muscles to build a playoff team, and St Louis will get back in after they clear some veteran dollars. We need to make that commitment to a higher salary level NOW!
I read somewhere that teams that receive revenue sharing have to spend 150% of what they receive so the union went after the A's and they now have to get their payroll to $105 million. I would think the Pirates are receiving a similar amount so why hasn't the union jumped on the Nutting?
If the Pirates Player Payroll was in the $105 mil area, the Pirates could afford to go after Free Agents when needed. Liked the trade they made to get Horwitz, but we cannot trade to get FA's! The Final 40 man for 2024 was a tad above $69 mil. I wonder what the projection is for the 40 man to start 2025? Out there anywhere Ethan?
I remember years ago when the payroll was in the 40s that the union put some pressure on them but it's been a long time since the opening day payroll was near $100 mill. It's pretty sad as a small market fan, your hope is that the team splurges for a $100 million payroll. MLB is so broken.
When teams are pocketing revenue instead of spending it to improve the team, FanGraphs Effectively Wild podcast host Meg Rowley termed it as "nutting"! Guess why. Any help would be greatly appreciated by the long-suffering Pirate fans - whether it comes from the Union or if Nutting woke up and realized his equity increases if the ballclub is successful and popular. Take advantage of the Skenes push to get the name of this team out there a helluva lot more than it was before 2024.
I am a capitalist, and I have no problem with Nutting making money off baseball. I also follow Futbol (soccer) some (though not as much as baseball), so I am accustomed to sports where some teams have vast revenue pools and others get by with peanuts.
The problem that I have is with Nutting's business model. He is just a miser. He thinks that the sole goal in owning a business is to minimize costs. There are lots of people like him in business. An entire generation of Wall-Street managers grew up with this same idea, and the entire Chinese economy is based upon misers who only think about cutting costs and ignore every other aspect of business.
There is a lot more to running a successful business than just pinching every penny. Unfortunately, you or I are never going to convince Nutting of this (or any of the Wall-Street / China business community).
I don't think that it is the MLB that is broken. Instead, I think it is a couple of owners who have no pride in their product and no concern for their brand. Their business model consists of soaking up revenue-sharing monies and pinching pennies. Since the league is perfectly content to have these owners there (because they do not put any upward pressure on labor costs), we can only hope that the players' union somehow finds some way to run them out of the business.
MLB as a business is wildly successful as owners and players make huge amounts of money. if players at a macro level did not agree they would have fought much harder in the last negotiation. Competetive balance is what is broken and neither of those two parties have that anywhere near the top of their priority list. Nutting is a problem but our only hope is he sinks low enough for an A's like revolt by the players union.
Not broken? If I remember correctly only 1 team in the bottom 3rd in payroll has won the World Series in the last 40 yrs. 26 out of the last 30 world series winners were in the top 50% in payroll. Baseball needs a hard cap system on the top and bottom. It's ridiculous that teams can have triple or quadruple the payroll of others or defer a billion $ of salary.
And yet, by my count, 17 different teams have won the World Series since 2000. I can't imagine a more competitive league... really. Most small-market teams ramp up spending during a competitive window and then shed salary as they rebuild, so there is correlation between spending and championships, but that does not imply "causation.'
There are only a couple of teams that do not ramp up spending to realistic levels ever, even when in a competitive window. Your Pirates happen to be one of those teams. This is not a problem with the league. It is a problem with a couple teams: the Pirates at the head of the list.
Does jurickson profar move the needle at all if we wrangle him? Savant looks mostly red, but would be a potentially rough defender in the outfield
I like the bat, the changes he made look sustainable. He pretty much stinks in any defensive position (he might be average at first).
His best defensive play might have been the catch he made in Los Angelas in the play-offs..... The one he pretended like it was a homer until everyone cheered, then he showed the ball.
Valdez has below-average speed and fringy arm strength, which limits his effectiveness as a defender. He lacks range at second base, his primary position, and has played everywhere but center field and pitcher as a pro. Boston also gave him brief looks at third base and left field after the trade, though he doesn't have enough arm for the hot corner.
According to BR he was replacement level (0.0 WAR!) in 2023 despite having an OPS+ of 103. That reminds me of Tellez who even in his best hitting years was barely better than replacement level due to his poor defense and base running.
One of the reasons why I like Horwitz. The defense raises the floor a little bit.
Broader question: should the big guy at first base mostly be a thing of the past for this reason? The Rowdy’s and Vogelbach’s and Jesus Aguilar’s struggle to provide a ton of value beyond the home runs. Maybe you have them as DH’s but not in the field unless there’s an emergency.
This feels like Sanders or Graves filling a spot at Indy. Nothing more nothing less. A swap of two org players.
Year is almost over, and unsurprisingly our favorite team has not signed a FA, imagine that!
We picked up Emmanuel Valdez. Boston had designated him earlier, so I hope this isn't expected to fill more than depth. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/pirates-acquire-enmanuel-valdez.html
Joe Vogatsky, we hardly knew ye.
I'm starting to wonder if Ben played 2B growing up as he seems to have a strong affinity for them.
I hope this means they are eyeing a potential trade for IKF, since they just replaced his 7.5 million salary with a league minimum salary with only a modenst downgrade in performance.
Trade proposal idea, IKF, Peguero, and Oviedo to the Mets for Marte, Mauricio, Acuna, and Santucci plus $5 million.
Mets get a depth pitcher, defensive backup infielder and a potential platoon with McNeil at 2nd.
Pirates get a corner outfielder, two young multi position players that have SS potential, and a young lefty to add depth in the lower minors.
I like it, but I doubt the Mets would go for it at this juncture, since Oviedo's health is still a question mark. I doubt that you would be able to get both Mauricio and Acuna though. Probably just 1 or the other. Take your pick.
I like Mauricio better than Acuna, so replace Acuna with Baty lol. or
Marte, Mauricio, and Santucci
For Oviedo and IKF plus some money coming back.
How's this? Ke' Bryan Hayes, Harrington, and Jebb to the As for Colby Thomas.
If Thomas batted left handed definitely, I think he can hit but PNC might suppress his power output. Being a right handed hitter playing in the PCL tends to worry me a bit.
This is my hope though I’m not holding my breath
A platoon at 2b wouldn’t be the worse idea, it’s not a great one, but not the worse.
How many 2nd/SS does a team need?? Thought LP and Yorke would be the middle infield at AAA. Maybe TJohnson at the middle of the year
Between Indy and Pittsburgh, they have two SS in Williams and Peguero and the latter is questionable. They really have a half-dozen or so 2B.
IKF and Gonzo
Cheng is in Indy but isn't ready for Pittsburgh yet.
How about Austin Hays for RF. .260 hitter with 30 plus doubles. See if 8 million a year for 2 yrs= 16-17 million total would work. He is still 28-29 yrs old.
If you need a warm body in the OF, Hays fits the bill. I would rather have Ramon Laureano though for better range and more power.
Either one. I’m good to have an outfielder to bat 5th.
I think Hays would be fine. I think it would be better to sign Hays and Kepler. Hays plays against all lefties. Substituting for Kepler and Cruz on different days. Reynolds plays some first base against lefties allowing cook some outfield time with Hays and one of Cruz or Kepler. That way between the three, Cruz,Kepler, and Horowitz none are beat up by lefthanders.
Great... Braves sign BDLC.. so will he be starting in RF or LF in the All Star Game when he completely turns his game around in the ATL.
I think he is a solid 4th outfielder to have on your team, just not a guy you trade prospects for to get you in the play-offs.
See below, I was mostly joking. To me he is at best a DH as his defense has barely been playable. And his level of hitting only just isn't worth it. He basically pops an occasional homerun. Maybe Braves will change something.
He did have 18 homers already in 100 plus games when the Pirates traded for him. I think that was ahead of all Pirates at the time. With the Pirates, he was pretty hard to watch defensively and offensively. Only 3 homers with the Pirates and I think those came late in the season.
Eh if we lose that one then so be it
Totally get why we might think certain players might prosper after leaving, and I’d imagine you’re being more than a little tongue in cheek here, but not sure I’m seeing it with BDLC.
98% tongue in cheek... don't see it with BDLC.
That would be par for the course for sure.
I do t k ow if this has been asked or written, but where do you guys think Horwitz is gonna bat. He’s a high on base, good contact with little power (so far). Sounds like 1st or second or 5th in the order, he is slow footed so not your old fashioned lead off hitter…..Thinking Cutch leading off follow by Horwitz, BRey, Cruz, Bart, Kepler, IKF, Hayes, Nick????
I was thinking Cutch and Horwitz 1 and 2, at least against RHP (I'd bat Horwitz lower against lefties). That should mean that the opposing starter will run up their pitch count by the end of the 1st.
As for the lack of speed, I wouldn't worry about that to open a game but then bat a good base stealer in the 9th spot so that the rest of the game we might have him on base for two guys with good plate skills.
I like him in the 5 hole, leadoff remains the open spot so far.
1 open, 2 Reynolds, 3 Cruz, 4 Bart, 5 Horwitz, 6 Gonzales, 7 Cutch, 8 Hayes, 9 IKF.
I think left field is currently open (Reynolds in right). Cook, Yorke, and Suwinski the current leaders for the position. I lean Yorke on hitting, Cook on fielding and Suwinski on power potential.
I'm liking Nicky G. to leadoff. Gives him that 5th AB also late in the game.
Not an on base guy, but I wouldn’t mind it.
Who were those guys from Houston and Arizona I think you said were blocked? Remember them being smaller OF types. Would like a speedy gut at the top. With all the bases being stolen these days. And please not Bae.
Barrosa in Arizona
I'm kinda inclined to ignore the 7th percentile (eek!) sprint speed and hit Horwitz leadoff. Or hit Cutch leadoff. He still has high-level strike zone judgment.
Call me old school, but I hate the idea of someone clogging up the bases out of the leadoff spot. The Pirates have a hard enough time advancing baserunners and putting the ball in play.
Another Vogelbach at lead off is not what we need! Still can't believe Shelton did that.
It was considered sabermetrically advanced to ignore baserunning until recently. Even still, the metrics do not take account of advancing baserunners with outs and so forth sufficiently IMO. Ask the Pirates and us fans how that works out, watching runner after runner stranded because no one could advance them or score them with a simple sacrifice fly.
Teams look for a good on base guys, but aren't guys that can advance those baserunners important as well?
I'm hoping (probably dreaming) that Yorke or Cooke and Suwinski can platoon and show enough on base ability.
With Cutch's days off typically against RH (not in a platoon manner) and Horwitz small MLB sample size struggling against LH, they could make a good job share at the top of the order pending any further roster changes. I still see too many IKF in the leadoff suggestions (and some of that based on his 2024 usage). His track record is long at this point... bottom of the order and hopefully a professional job at SS.
There seems to be a broad pattern of overrating IKF both offensively and defensively. On a good team, he’s a UT guy.
I wish they'd go after Mauricio or Acuna from the Mets for IKF eventual replacement. They're young and have a higher ceiling and shouldn't cost a ton.
I agree, but I have grown (been worn out?) that as a one year solution he may be ok given the internal and in many ways external options. At some level I trust him to make the basic plays and make the right decisions when the ball is in his hand. Maybe metrics show he gets fewer outs, but if he can be the voice/glove of reason it is tolerable knowing offense will have to come from elsewhere. Trying to trigger people maybe - kind of like Jeter on the defensive side. Now offensively there are several oceans between the two. A late EDIT/Addition - with a healthy Hayes or Triolo playing third there are outs gained, hopefully making up for a few lost at SS.
I already penciled Kepler in LF with Cook backing him. But if that was to happened or a similar player (Profar, Verdugo) they might fit better at the 5th.
I would that they not bother with Kepler. They really need someone who can cover the large LF at PNC, and Kepler struggles in RF. I also think that his better days are here and gone.
I thought he was a good fielder!
He is OK in RF: nothing special and not getting younger in the legs. Verdugo is a headcase. There is a reason every team trades him after a season or two. I sure hope they don't plan on bringing him in.
Profar probably priced himself out of Pittsburgh. He also probably will be overpriced right now after a career year that he is unlikely to repeat.
So the answer is Suwinski? Or trade Jones?
I know you asked for an actual lineup, but since I have bought into the basic new school for a batting order (not everything). Just line them up by career (or more likely what is predicted) OBP, adjust for some L/R balance for when pitching changes are made, and bonus points (tie breakers?) for power. So regarding Horwitz he does sound like a good top of the order hitter but I wouldn't say 1,2 or 5 more 1-5 as I don't really feel 3 or 4 have to be power slots.. With his current OBP against LH I don't see him at the top or maybe even playing vs. LH although I admit his MLB sample size is small but surely they have MiLB splits as well. If he has not hit LH his entire career and I am assuming he got the opportunity in MiLB then I find it hard to believe he will quickly learn now facing the best LH in the world. Strong side of a platoon if the hitting is legit is still a huge upgrade.
The Pirates made a move they had to make in getting a "youngish" LH hitting bat with just less than a full year of MLB Service - lots of player control. He played 1B and 2B for Toronto and did well both offensively and defensively. Maintain his playing of both 1B and 2B, and hope he continues to hit for average and 15-20 HR power. And can Hague wake up IKF?
How close are the Pirates to having the Players Union file a Grievance against them for failure to properly use Revenue Sharing Dollars to stay competitive. Nutting is too busy pocketing revenue sharing dollars rather than using those dollars for the purposes they were designated - to BUY talent and try to remain competitive. I would rather see the Pirates step up to a player salary level of $100 - $110 mil, and join at least the next higher two teams in the Central - Milwaukee, and Cincy, because that is where they are heading. The Cubs are just starting to flex their financial muscles to build a playoff team, and St Louis will get back in after they clear some veteran dollars. We need to make that commitment to a higher salary level NOW!
I read somewhere that teams that receive revenue sharing have to spend 150% of what they receive so the union went after the A's and they now have to get their payroll to $105 million. I would think the Pirates are receiving a similar amount so why hasn't the union jumped on the Nutting?
If the Pirates Player Payroll was in the $105 mil area, the Pirates could afford to go after Free Agents when needed. Liked the trade they made to get Horwitz, but we cannot trade to get FA's! The Final 40 man for 2024 was a tad above $69 mil. I wonder what the projection is for the 40 man to start 2025? Out there anywhere Ethan?
They have in the recent past.
I remember years ago when the payroll was in the 40s that the union put some pressure on them but it's been a long time since the opening day payroll was near $100 mill. It's pretty sad as a small market fan, your hope is that the team splurges for a $100 million payroll. MLB is so broken.
When teams are pocketing revenue instead of spending it to improve the team, FanGraphs Effectively Wild podcast host Meg Rowley termed it as "nutting"! Guess why. Any help would be greatly appreciated by the long-suffering Pirate fans - whether it comes from the Union or if Nutting woke up and realized his equity increases if the ballclub is successful and popular. Take advantage of the Skenes push to get the name of this team out there a helluva lot more than it was before 2024.
I am a capitalist, and I have no problem with Nutting making money off baseball. I also follow Futbol (soccer) some (though not as much as baseball), so I am accustomed to sports where some teams have vast revenue pools and others get by with peanuts.
The problem that I have is with Nutting's business model. He is just a miser. He thinks that the sole goal in owning a business is to minimize costs. There are lots of people like him in business. An entire generation of Wall-Street managers grew up with this same idea, and the entire Chinese economy is based upon misers who only think about cutting costs and ignore every other aspect of business.
There is a lot more to running a successful business than just pinching every penny. Unfortunately, you or I are never going to convince Nutting of this (or any of the Wall-Street / China business community).
I don't think that it is the MLB that is broken. Instead, I think it is a couple of owners who have no pride in their product and no concern for their brand. Their business model consists of soaking up revenue-sharing monies and pinching pennies. Since the league is perfectly content to have these owners there (because they do not put any upward pressure on labor costs), we can only hope that the players' union somehow finds some way to run them out of the business.
MLB as a business is wildly successful as owners and players make huge amounts of money. if players at a macro level did not agree they would have fought much harder in the last negotiation. Competetive balance is what is broken and neither of those two parties have that anywhere near the top of their priority list. Nutting is a problem but our only hope is he sinks low enough for an A's like revolt by the players union.
Not broken? If I remember correctly only 1 team in the bottom 3rd in payroll has won the World Series in the last 40 yrs. 26 out of the last 30 world series winners were in the top 50% in payroll. Baseball needs a hard cap system on the top and bottom. It's ridiculous that teams can have triple or quadruple the payroll of others or defer a billion $ of salary.
And yet, by my count, 17 different teams have won the World Series since 2000. I can't imagine a more competitive league... really. Most small-market teams ramp up spending during a competitive window and then shed salary as they rebuild, so there is correlation between spending and championships, but that does not imply "causation.'
There are only a couple of teams that do not ramp up spending to realistic levels ever, even when in a competitive window. Your Pirates happen to be one of those teams. This is not a problem with the league. It is a problem with a couple teams: the Pirates at the head of the list.