Fangraphs has an article up about the Brewers pitching and to a lesser extent their defense. per the article, the Pirates have the 5 the best defense in baseball.
Too bad the Pirates can’t get a do-over on the months of May and July when they only won 16 total games and lost 34. They’ve played .552 baseball outside of those 2 months. If only, but mulligans are against the rules even in golf. It’s a shame, but maybe a hopeful sign.
While the Pirates are headed to a win total about what I expected, how they got there from a pitching standpoint is not how I expected. I truly thought (and still think) being 9 deep at starter was sufficient. I also thought it was 'real' depth and felt good about Keller/Brubaker/Contreras as 3 pieces for several years. Not elite ACE level but a solid foundation. I also felt between Oviedo/Ortiz/Priester/Burrows they had good options that would force (not by default) starting pitching movement. OOPS. While I am all in on changing pitching coaches, how they have managed to play well late in the year with the current rotation options is impressive. Part 2: I thought the bullpen was going to be a weakness (outside of Bednar) and while there continues to be a few doom and gloom posters regarding the bullpen, I really think they built a good(not great) bullpen with several slots I would already cement in the 2024 pen. My concern going into 2024 is bullpens to me are the last thing to build and do have significant variance year to year. Will enough of the 'keepers' (more than I would have predicted) carry it over to 2024. The bigger issue is how do they get to a 'real' depth of 9 starters for next year. IMO - the TJ guys you really can't count, Contreras and Priester have much to prove (I wouldn't want them in the top 5), so that leaves Keller, Oviedo and maybe Ortiz. I do believe they have some options for the prospects (Jones, SKENES, and further down Solometo/Chandler) that could push their way up in 2024 if they do well. Maybe they count as the 8 or 9 on depth chart for 2024 starters. I am sure they will be sign a vet or two but the top end starters will likely be out of the Pirates range (even if we wanted to spend) and others (just like always) come with risk.
It's truly amazing how the team started playing so much better the very moment they ditched all the veteran hangers-on. It's not like the rookies have hit the ground running. They've all scuffled to one degree or another. And the rotation is a shambles. Yet somehow, without all the veteran presences to tell them how the game is played, the team is just playing better baseball. A lot better.
I wonder whether anybody associated with the team is learning anything . . . .
For losing cruz, only having two real starters for the last 2 months, etc. etc. and still seeing a 10-15 game improvement is pretty damn positive in my book. I think most people in the BoD squad feel they couldve helped manage the team to a few additional wins. Going into the offseason with plenty of internal growth coming plus the innate boost of cruz should have us set up rather nicely for next year. If not a playoff berth, 2024 looks like a ballclub that should have a winning record
Im not sure most people think they could have managed more wins out of this team in 2023, you might be surprised how the silent majority(?) feel🤷♂️😂🤣....But that wasnt your point, I think you are right in that most of the more active site posters feel that way, i see that for sure. Yuppers, 2024 may finally bring some contending excitement, been awhile🤞
Seriously, the win total is irrelevant towards this season. Unless they go 15-0 and the Reds, Giants, and Marlins choke like dogs.
What matters to me is continuing to see the core players play well, thus causing BN to give BC the green light to make meaningful additions this winter.
Whether it’s via FA or trade, they need a couple of SP’s to fill the roles played by AJ & Liriano a decade ago. And having a legitimate HR hitting 1B to lengthen the lineup would certainly help, too.
Here’s my bold prediction, Pirates deal Bednar this winter either alone, or with a prospect(s), to fill one of those glaring holes on the roster.
Man, you had me until you mentioned trading the Renegade.
Imagine the Bucco's first playoff game at home since 2015, it's a blackout, it's the 9th inning and here comes Bednar with a one run lead in the top of the 9th with Renegade blaring through PNC speakers and the place is going absolutely ape sh*t.
The have plenty of prospect capital to make a trade. Bednar is a huge piece of the future. I know there's been a lot of negative chatter about Bednar in the game threads, but at the end of the day, he has the 3rd most fWAR in all of baseball for relivers. Think about that for a second. You simply don't replace that.
I totally get the position of holding onto Bednar. It’s certainly easy to make the case for him.
My issue is he gets worse as the season goes on. Probably a function of his conditioning. Unless this changes, it will only get worse with age.
So to answer your question, if the Pirates are in the playoffs next year, and have a 1-run lead going into the 9th, I’d feel more confident with either Holderman or Mlodzinski than Bednar.
Hate to say it, but I see The Renegade as a ticking time bomb.
How many blown saves does he have in the 2nd half? He has the 3rd most WAR out of all relievers in the game. He can't be as bad as you and the game thread crowd thinks. You guys are just living off every pitch being reactionary...Its what fans do. If he doesn't strike out every hitter that steps in the box, you guys think he sucks. Bottom line, he's improved every year with the Pirates. I think the idea of team building is keeping your stars and Bednar is a star reliever.
I don't understand the trade-Bednar vibe either. The main thing is that relievers are undervalued generally, so you just don't get their value in exchange in trade. What is more, everyone admits that bullpens are volatile, so how does it make sense to trade your most reliable bullpen piece, especially for less than proper value? Second, Bednar is under team control for 3 more years. The Pirates are never going to have a good bullpen or pitching staff if they have to replace their top relievers every 2 years or so: the minute each hits arbitration. Finally, arbitration rates for relievers, like trade value, are under valued. The best and easiest way for a small-market team to improve is to improve the bullpen. The Pirates should be looking to add to their bullpen, not subtract.
I never suggested dump him for less value. I said package him with a prospect or two to acquire something like a 1B bat or mid rotation SP.
Pirates organization is littered with strong bullpen arms. Holderman, Mlodzinski, Nichols, and Ortiz all could be dominant Closers if given an opportunity.
Well.. to my mind, the idea of a closer is silly. Your best relievers should be facing their best batters in critical situations (like how most managers handle things in the post season). Given that MLB managers are stuck in medieval thinking about how to use bullpens, the key word in your statement above is "could be dominant." Bednar is dominat. The difference is enormous.
The rest of your statement kind of makes my point. I would not package a shutdown bullpen guy with anything for a mid-rotation SP. Any mid-rotation SP that is young and pre-arb is an unproven commodity. Anyone that is late in arb or on a free-agent contract is high-price or likely priced close to market. Your shutdown reliever with 3 years of control is worth more than either of those guys IMO. The majority of teams do not see it this way, which is why I say that shutdown bullpen guys are undervalued.
To me the key thing is what you stated - 3 years of control. There is risk with injury / value changes for any player, but when you have All-Star level contribution and control what is the rush? Now, the caveat always included (I don't care if we are talking Acuna or Bednar), if somebody totally blows you away (the Orioles unload the truck) then anybody can be traded, but nobody will blow them away.
First I agree! But there also lies the dilemma. Most teams wanting to 'overpay' for a closer are in contention and can't give up their mid rotation arm. If there is a sweet spot is it prying a contending teams highly rated pitcher(s) who could be 4-6 months away from contributing (obviously AAA). They may be willing because they need the closer NOW and if the Pirates are trading their closer, then in theory they are also still looking at least 4-6 months out. What I described is more of a trade deadline 2024 statement because if we are demanding an overpay, IMO that only happens at a trade deadline.
Seeing CSN repeating as the Top Hitter is encouraging.
The number of wins is also encouraging. The true value is that this front office did not try to hold talented young players down in the minors in 2023. If my math is correct, Ji-Hwan Bae 24, has been up all year and has almost 300 AB; Tucupita Marcano 24, 202 AB; Henry Davis 24, 183 AB; Liover Peguero 22, 150 AB; Endy Rodriguez 23, 149 AB; Jared Triolo 25, 136 AB. 3 or 4 other young players have been up and down, but the Pirates will give these talented kids about 1,500 AB in 2023. One last request for the remaining games - bring up Matt Gorski to play CF.
Same is true to a lesser extent with Pitchers like Priester, Bolton, Selby, Hernandez and others getting needed exposure to the speed of the game and level of talent at MLB. There is reason to be enthused about the Pirates in 2024.
He hit 20 stolen bases last night too. Impressive number for someone you wouldn't expect it from based off his build. Would like to see him finish out like this and then get another shot at the bench next year.
No denying this season has had some significant improvements. Essentially the rebuild is done. Now it’s time to spend to fill holes with talented and costly vets, and/or trade from the quality depth to make next year’s team a legitimate contender for a division title.
First Half:
24th ranked offense @ 89 wRC+
20th ranked pitching staff @ 4.40 ERA
4.21 rpg
4.72 rpg against
Second Half:
23rd ranked offense @ 89 wRC+
20th ranked pitching staff @ 4.49 ERA
4.17 rpg
4.89 rpg against
Just a game under .500 in the second half in spite of being outscored by *41* runs.
Inarguably great managing.
here's a stunner...
Fangraphs has an article up about the Brewers pitching and to a lesser extent their defense. per the article, the Pirates have the 5 the best defense in baseball.
Too bad the Pirates can’t get a do-over on the months of May and July when they only won 16 total games and lost 34. They’ve played .552 baseball outside of those 2 months. If only, but mulligans are against the rules even in golf. It’s a shame, but maybe a hopeful sign.
Mulligans are a time honored tradition and the basis of my game, sir!
Davis back, Capra optioned.
Damn i forgot that capra was still around, feels like he hasnt played in a few weeks
When does "Ben Determined" pitch next, tomorrow or Sunday, lol.
While the Pirates are headed to a win total about what I expected, how they got there from a pitching standpoint is not how I expected. I truly thought (and still think) being 9 deep at starter was sufficient. I also thought it was 'real' depth and felt good about Keller/Brubaker/Contreras as 3 pieces for several years. Not elite ACE level but a solid foundation. I also felt between Oviedo/Ortiz/Priester/Burrows they had good options that would force (not by default) starting pitching movement. OOPS. While I am all in on changing pitching coaches, how they have managed to play well late in the year with the current rotation options is impressive. Part 2: I thought the bullpen was going to be a weakness (outside of Bednar) and while there continues to be a few doom and gloom posters regarding the bullpen, I really think they built a good(not great) bullpen with several slots I would already cement in the 2024 pen. My concern going into 2024 is bullpens to me are the last thing to build and do have significant variance year to year. Will enough of the 'keepers' (more than I would have predicted) carry it over to 2024. The bigger issue is how do they get to a 'real' depth of 9 starters for next year. IMO - the TJ guys you really can't count, Contreras and Priester have much to prove (I wouldn't want them in the top 5), so that leaves Keller, Oviedo and maybe Ortiz. I do believe they have some options for the prospects (Jones, SKENES, and further down Solometo/Chandler) that could push their way up in 2024 if they do well. Maybe they count as the 8 or 9 on depth chart for 2024 starters. I am sure they will be sign a vet or two but the top end starters will likely be out of the Pirates range (even if we wanted to spend) and others (just like always) come with risk.
It's truly amazing how the team started playing so much better the very moment they ditched all the veteran hangers-on. It's not like the rookies have hit the ground running. They've all scuffled to one degree or another. And the rotation is a shambles. Yet somehow, without all the veteran presences to tell them how the game is played, the team is just playing better baseball. A lot better.
I wonder whether anybody associated with the team is learning anything . . . .
For losing cruz, only having two real starters for the last 2 months, etc. etc. and still seeing a 10-15 game improvement is pretty damn positive in my book. I think most people in the BoD squad feel they couldve helped manage the team to a few additional wins. Going into the offseason with plenty of internal growth coming plus the innate boost of cruz should have us set up rather nicely for next year. If not a playoff berth, 2024 looks like a ballclub that should have a winning record
Im not sure most people think they could have managed more wins out of this team in 2023, you might be surprised how the silent majority(?) feel🤷♂️😂🤣....But that wasnt your point, I think you are right in that most of the more active site posters feel that way, i see that for sure. Yuppers, 2024 may finally bring some contending excitement, been awhile🤞
15-0 till they ain’t!
Seriously, the win total is irrelevant towards this season. Unless they go 15-0 and the Reds, Giants, and Marlins choke like dogs.
What matters to me is continuing to see the core players play well, thus causing BN to give BC the green light to make meaningful additions this winter.
Whether it’s via FA or trade, they need a couple of SP’s to fill the roles played by AJ & Liriano a decade ago. And having a legitimate HR hitting 1B to lengthen the lineup would certainly help, too.
Here’s my bold prediction, Pirates deal Bednar this winter either alone, or with a prospect(s), to fill one of those glaring holes on the roster.
Man, you had me until you mentioned trading the Renegade.
Imagine the Bucco's first playoff game at home since 2015, it's a blackout, it's the 9th inning and here comes Bednar with a one run lead in the top of the 9th with Renegade blaring through PNC speakers and the place is going absolutely ape sh*t.
The have plenty of prospect capital to make a trade. Bednar is a huge piece of the future. I know there's been a lot of negative chatter about Bednar in the game threads, but at the end of the day, he has the 3rd most fWAR in all of baseball for relivers. Think about that for a second. You simply don't replace that.
I totally get the position of holding onto Bednar. It’s certainly easy to make the case for him.
My issue is he gets worse as the season goes on. Probably a function of his conditioning. Unless this changes, it will only get worse with age.
So to answer your question, if the Pirates are in the playoffs next year, and have a 1-run lead going into the 9th, I’d feel more confident with either Holderman or Mlodzinski than Bednar.
Hate to say it, but I see The Renegade as a ticking time bomb.
How many blown saves does he have in the 2nd half? He has the 3rd most WAR out of all relievers in the game. He can't be as bad as you and the game thread crowd thinks. You guys are just living off every pitch being reactionary...Its what fans do. If he doesn't strike out every hitter that steps in the box, you guys think he sucks. Bottom line, he's improved every year with the Pirates. I think the idea of team building is keeping your stars and Bednar is a star reliever.
After tonight, you don’t have to worry about Bednar being dealt.
Holderman looks unhittable in the 8th inning, and like a AAAA arm in the 9th.
I don't understand the trade-Bednar vibe either. The main thing is that relievers are undervalued generally, so you just don't get their value in exchange in trade. What is more, everyone admits that bullpens are volatile, so how does it make sense to trade your most reliable bullpen piece, especially for less than proper value? Second, Bednar is under team control for 3 more years. The Pirates are never going to have a good bullpen or pitching staff if they have to replace their top relievers every 2 years or so: the minute each hits arbitration. Finally, arbitration rates for relievers, like trade value, are under valued. The best and easiest way for a small-market team to improve is to improve the bullpen. The Pirates should be looking to add to their bullpen, not subtract.
I never suggested dump him for less value. I said package him with a prospect or two to acquire something like a 1B bat or mid rotation SP.
Pirates organization is littered with strong bullpen arms. Holderman, Mlodzinski, Nichols, and Ortiz all could be dominant Closers if given an opportunity.
Well.. to my mind, the idea of a closer is silly. Your best relievers should be facing their best batters in critical situations (like how most managers handle things in the post season). Given that MLB managers are stuck in medieval thinking about how to use bullpens, the key word in your statement above is "could be dominant." Bednar is dominat. The difference is enormous.
The rest of your statement kind of makes my point. I would not package a shutdown bullpen guy with anything for a mid-rotation SP. Any mid-rotation SP that is young and pre-arb is an unproven commodity. Anyone that is late in arb or on a free-agent contract is high-price or likely priced close to market. Your shutdown reliever with 3 years of control is worth more than either of those guys IMO. The majority of teams do not see it this way, which is why I say that shutdown bullpen guys are undervalued.
To me the key thing is what you stated - 3 years of control. There is risk with injury / value changes for any player, but when you have All-Star level contribution and control what is the rush? Now, the caveat always included (I don't care if we are talking Acuna or Bednar), if somebody totally blows you away (the Orioles unload the truck) then anybody can be traded, but nobody will blow them away.
Absolutely. If someone offers an obvious overpay, you take it, but that just doesn't happen with relief pitchers, at least not in recent memory.
Quality for quality trade is what I’m suggesting since we know Pirates aren’t going to be forking over money to sign a mid rotation arm in FA.
First I agree! But there also lies the dilemma. Most teams wanting to 'overpay' for a closer are in contention and can't give up their mid rotation arm. If there is a sweet spot is it prying a contending teams highly rated pitcher(s) who could be 4-6 months away from contributing (obviously AAA). They may be willing because they need the closer NOW and if the Pirates are trading their closer, then in theory they are also still looking at least 4-6 months out. What I described is more of a trade deadline 2024 statement because if we are demanding an overpay, IMO that only happens at a trade deadline.
You left out Arizona on your "choke like dogs" portion🤷♂️😀...4 teams battling for final spot, exciting stuff👍
You’re right, forgot about them.
MLB is definitely getting some exciting wild card races this year to go along with a couple nail biting division battles.
Seeing CSN repeating as the Top Hitter is encouraging.
The number of wins is also encouraging. The true value is that this front office did not try to hold talented young players down in the minors in 2023. If my math is correct, Ji-Hwan Bae 24, has been up all year and has almost 300 AB; Tucupita Marcano 24, 202 AB; Henry Davis 24, 183 AB; Liover Peguero 22, 150 AB; Endy Rodriguez 23, 149 AB; Jared Triolo 25, 136 AB. 3 or 4 other young players have been up and down, but the Pirates will give these talented kids about 1,500 AB in 2023. One last request for the remaining games - bring up Matt Gorski to play CF.
Same is true to a lesser extent with Pitchers like Priester, Bolton, Selby, Hernandez and others getting needed exposure to the speed of the game and level of talent at MLB. There is reason to be enthused about the Pirates in 2024.
He hit 20 stolen bases last night too. Impressive number for someone you wouldn't expect it from based off his build. Would like to see him finish out like this and then get another shot at the bench next year.
No denying this season has had some significant improvements. Essentially the rebuild is done. Now it’s time to spend to fill holes with talented and costly vets, and/or trade from the quality depth to make next year’s team a legitimate contender for a division title.