Murphy: Three intriguing prospects out the Pirates' top 25
Three prospects to watch outside our top 25 rankings.
The Pirates have a lot of interesting players in the lower levels, and while there is a lot of variance on them, they have shown flashes of being players to monitor going forward.
None of these players made our top 25 list or received any votes, but they have interesting traits to watch going into 2024.
Omar Alfonzo
Perhaps my favorite prospect in the system that no one knows of, Alfonzo quietly had a successful debut season in Bradenton in 2023.
It didn’t start that way, as he struggled initially before getting assigned to the Florida Complex League.
Once returning on June 22, Alfonzo slashed .294/.413/.444 with a 137 wRC+, hit four home runs (10 extra-base hits), and had a walk rate under 20% (17.4%). That was all over 42 games and 155 plate appearances.
He was 19 years old for the majority of the season.
Alfonzo also posted an elite chase rate (19.1%), a 37.5% hard-hit rate, and an 82% in-zone contact rate. His 95th percentile exit velocity was more on the borderline side of things (104.4 mph), but it was just a tad under more notable prospects like Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero.
He spent time at first base, but that was to keep the bat in the lineup, as the Marauders also had Geovanny Planchart on the roster.
The Pirates liked his bat when they signed him, and he showed flashes as to why. While a lot of prospect evaluation is based on upside and projections, there must also be production on the field.
With that in mind, you can make a case that there is more to like about certain parts of Alfonzo’s game that play the further you move up the minors than some of his other higher-ranked teammates on Bradenton.
Alessandro Ercolani
The first glimpse many people got of Ercolani wasn’t the best initial impression, as he struggled during his brief stint in the Arizona Fall League.
Control was an issue for Ercolani during the regular season, but not to that extent, as he walked 11 in 3.2 innings pitched.
Ercolani is intriguing solely due to his homeland of San Marino, a country where you could fit the entire population in PNC Park.
He also pitched the entire 2023 season at 19 years old and was the youngest participant in the AFL. Ercolani won’t turn 20 until the regular season is underway.
His fastball can reach the upper 90s, but he averaged around 93.4. There were some instances where he had a hard time maintaining the velocity deeper into outings, but he more than doubled his innings from the previous year and didn’t even throw in games after July 30.
The fastball has good movement and strong shape (16.8 IVB, -4.7 VAA), but it only got a 21.6% whiff rate.
Baseball America brought up his cutter as one of the best pitches in the AFL according to their ‘Stuff+’ model, and he also mixes in a slider, change-up, and curveball.
There’s some reliever risk right now for Eroclani, but he’s super young and still learning to pitch. He has some upside, he just needs to work on the control as he gains more experience.
Patrick Reilly
Lower-level relievers have burned me before (JC Flowers, Tyler Samaniego), but neither had Reilly's pure stuff on the mound.
The control is the big issue for Reilly in college, and it showed up during his brief cameo with Bradenton - walking eight batters in 10.2 innings pitched.
He also struck out 19 and held his opponents to a .158 average.
The fastball is electric and could be one of the best in the system if the command and control improve. Of all pitchers with 100 four-seam fastballs thrown (and tracked on Prospects Live), Reilly led the system in whiff rate (41.7%), and the pitch averaged 18.8” of Inverted Vertical Break (IVB).
He paired that pitch with a cutter that also picked up a whiff rate of over 40%. He can also slow that pitch down and convert it to more of a slider, although he didn’t throw it much in Bradenton.
Reilly also threw a change-up in college, which could allow him to work as a starter at the pro level. The fastball alone makes him intriguing enough to work out of the rotation until he proves he can’t, just because of the upside.
The track record points to him just being a reliever, but he has the potential to be an electric one at that.
The safe bet would be him staying in Bradenton as a rotation member, but he could fly up the system if/when they throw him in the bullpen.
If the pirates could just find the next guru of command (pitching intstructor/miracle worker) they'd be unstoppable.
I like the picks.
Love these three guy articles as it gives me some extra under the radar names to follow this upcoming year!