Graham was an odd case. He hardly ever played and was awful when he did. It was hard to see why they signed him or why they kept him for three years. He needed to play college ball.
Regarding the divergence in draft success between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, Longenhagen recently opined that sometimes it really just does come down to the draft class at the time.
Hank ain't no Adley. He may have been the best college hitter available, but plenty of scouts noted the peculiarity of his swing and risk that it just wouldn't work against big league arms.
The only real criticism I could muster here is over the hubris in scouting Solometo and White.
There's only one Bumgarner and the the league-wide hit rate on teaching football players a big league hit tool is effectively zeeeeero. That entire "four first rounders!!!" narrative was all hype.
Those two dudes were always exceptionally high risk and probably shouldn't have been the basis of their overall draft strategy.
The Pirate's own 2024 draft shows they could've just grabbed Mayer at 1.1 and Bubba with their next pick and have no need to pay down other slots to afford the best combination of talent.
And even at that, Mayer still might stink and this all be for not.
I used to love the idea of the multi sport guy making it because as baseball fans, why wouldn’t we want monster raw athletes mastering baseball? The reality is, however, baseball is such a different animal regarding development the odds are so long.
For any draft beatniks, BA always has a Friday Draft pod on the upcoming class. A short chat this week, but the last 15 mins was fun. Chatting college bats, they look at contact/power/chase rates. According to the pods, there aren’t very many well-rounded bats like Kurtz/Wetherholt/Bazzana in 2024. Looking at contact rate (over 77.7%) and 90th percentile exit velocity(over 105.6), there is only one hitter (Dean Curley) and another who just missed (Aiva Arquette) among their ranked players. Much more power over hit guys (Schubert, Peterson, Petry) who had poor contact rates.
They cited a few more well-rounded bats who aren’t top 10 now: Henry Godbout(?), and Brandon Cumpton. Anyway a fun listen.
They also cited that this is position agnostic: there are guys who’s hit tools they like a lot, they just don’t crush the ball with EV, and they play good defense at premium positions (Cannarella, one of the catchers). Also, they cited Cam Smith who had mediocre metrics prior to last year, and completely flipped.
I think we discussed this the other day, there's no real standouts this year. The college bats all seem to have a flaw, probably just spoiled from the last 2 drafts. Hopefully a few will emerge but currently I'm more intrigued with the prep bats and like you said who truly knows their hit tool.
The 23 draft for sure was impacted by COVID, 24 less so. This draft certainly has more variety than last year’s, which had a poor prep class (according to the outlets-Law and BA said it was the worst prep class in at least the last decade) in arms and bats, but a solid college class. The fun part? Only a month or so till college ball starts!
Watching spring training at Pirate City last year, Henry Davis stood out just as much as anyone. In batting practice, he crushed the ball hitting 6 or 7 moon-shots in a row. I was especially impressed with his rapport with the pitchers, especially Jared Jones.
This is where I am no expert, but it seemed he had an all-or-nothing swing in the majors that just didn't work. When they sent him to Indy I thought they were going to change his swing, but I don't think they did. I am hoping he reports to spring with a new approach at the plate. I think what he can offer this team goes beyond the numbers, but only if he can hit.
Cannot agree that Davis has the inside track on the backup Catcher job. Davis is a RH hitter as is Joey Bart. He did have a decent 2023 with a .653 OPS in 225 AB, but dropped almost 200 points to a .454 OPS in 2024. Endy Rodriguez is a switch hitter, with a rep as a Catcher pitchers like to throw to, who can provide a LH hitter at C, and a RH hitter at 1B against LHP's.
Rather than favor either, I would say it is a tossup and will be decided in ST.
If Rodriguez is healthy I think he wins the "backup" job. But he will get significant playing time if he performs. Davis is a catcher that, like many, will take more time to develop. The Pirates unfortunately hurt his development by rushing him to the Majors, and changing his position. I hope they let him improve at AAA (and hopefully stay healthy). I remain high on him.
Colton Cowser, JAckson Merrill, Sal Frelick and Matt McLain are the only ones with fWAR above 2. This isn't a case of drafting Trubisky over Mahomes (god, can you imagine being a Bears fan?).
Cowser's first year up in 2023, he was able to get 5 singles and 2 doubles in his 77 plate appearances to go along with his .115 batting average. 2024, he finished 2nd in ROY. That gives me hope for the some of the young Bucs.
Hank is a good AAA player, feasting on 91 mph FB and hangers, hard to say that he’s better than anyone in the bigs right now. WRC of 34 barely tells the story.
AJ Graham is actually playing DII now. Pro players still have DII/DIII and JUCO college eligibility.
And UTampa is pretty good too. One of the best DII programs(obviously when getting a player with 3 years of pro experience).
https://x.com/baseballradar/status/1847801249049071723?s=46
Graham was an odd case. He hardly ever played and was awful when he did. It was hard to see why they signed him or why they kept him for three years. He needed to play college ball.
Regarding the divergence in draft success between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, Longenhagen recently opined that sometimes it really just does come down to the draft class at the time.
Hank ain't no Adley. He may have been the best college hitter available, but plenty of scouts noted the peculiarity of his swing and risk that it just wouldn't work against big league arms.
The only real criticism I could muster here is over the hubris in scouting Solometo and White.
There's only one Bumgarner and the the league-wide hit rate on teaching football players a big league hit tool is effectively zeeeeero. That entire "four first rounders!!!" narrative was all hype.
Those two dudes were always exceptionally high risk and probably shouldn't have been the basis of their overall draft strategy.
The Pirate's own 2024 draft shows they could've just grabbed Mayer at 1.1 and Bubba with their next pick and have no need to pay down other slots to afford the best combination of talent.
And even at that, Mayer still might stink and this all be for not.
I used to love the idea of the multi sport guy making it because as baseball fans, why wouldn’t we want monster raw athletes mastering baseball? The reality is, however, baseball is such a different animal regarding development the odds are so long.
Amen.
Sweet spot is the baseball player *also* yoked up enough to also kill it on the turf or track. Not the other way around.
Like Bubba, and contact was his issue as a hitter. Hitting a baseball is hard.
You said it!
For any draft beatniks, BA always has a Friday Draft pod on the upcoming class. A short chat this week, but the last 15 mins was fun. Chatting college bats, they look at contact/power/chase rates. According to the pods, there aren’t very many well-rounded bats like Kurtz/Wetherholt/Bazzana in 2024. Looking at contact rate (over 77.7%) and 90th percentile exit velocity(over 105.6), there is only one hitter (Dean Curley) and another who just missed (Aiva Arquette) among their ranked players. Much more power over hit guys (Schubert, Peterson, Petry) who had poor contact rates.
They cited a few more well-rounded bats who aren’t top 10 now: Henry Godbout(?), and Brandon Cumpton. Anyway a fun listen.
*THAT* Brandon Cumpton??? ;)
Hahah I typed that and I’m thinking…that isn’t right, but I’m too lazy to go back and look.
That's my take, '23 and '24 had several very good all around college bats, probably had a bit to do with the limited draft of '20.
They also cited that this is position agnostic: there are guys who’s hit tools they like a lot, they just don’t crush the ball with EV, and they play good defense at premium positions (Cannarella, one of the catchers). Also, they cited Cam Smith who had mediocre metrics prior to last year, and completely flipped.
I think we discussed this the other day, there's no real standouts this year. The college bats all seem to have a flaw, probably just spoiled from the last 2 drafts. Hopefully a few will emerge but currently I'm more intrigued with the prep bats and like you said who truly knows their hit tool.
The 23 draft for sure was impacted by COVID, 24 less so. This draft certainly has more variety than last year’s, which had a poor prep class (according to the outlets-Law and BA said it was the worst prep class in at least the last decade) in arms and bats, but a solid college class. The fun part? Only a month or so till college ball starts!
Watching spring training at Pirate City last year, Henry Davis stood out just as much as anyone. In batting practice, he crushed the ball hitting 6 or 7 moon-shots in a row. I was especially impressed with his rapport with the pitchers, especially Jared Jones.
This is where I am no expert, but it seemed he had an all-or-nothing swing in the majors that just didn't work. When they sent him to Indy I thought they were going to change his swing, but I don't think they did. I am hoping he reports to spring with a new approach at the plate. I think what he can offer this team goes beyond the numbers, but only if he can hit.
Intent aside, that's always been his swing. Muscled up pull side power.
Awful tough to put a full-sale change in place at this point.
Cannot agree that Davis has the inside track on the backup Catcher job. Davis is a RH hitter as is Joey Bart. He did have a decent 2023 with a .653 OPS in 225 AB, but dropped almost 200 points to a .454 OPS in 2024. Endy Rodriguez is a switch hitter, with a rep as a Catcher pitchers like to throw to, who can provide a LH hitter at C, and a RH hitter at 1B against LHP's.
Rather than favor either, I would say it is a tossup and will be decided in ST.
If Rodriguez is healthy I think he wins the "backup" job. But he will get significant playing time if he performs. Davis is a catcher that, like many, will take more time to develop. The Pirates unfortunately hurt his development by rushing him to the Majors, and changing his position. I hope they let him improve at AAA (and hopefully stay healthy). I remain high on him.
shows how much of a crapshoot the MLB draft is.. widely regarded as a great draft at the time, and it still may be, but 1-1 not performing hurts
Davis has the worst MLB WAR of all 2021 1st rounders who have made the show (-2.0), but the rest of the #1s haven't exactly blown the doors off: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?year_ID=2021&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round&from_type_4y=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_jc=0&from_type_unk=0
Colton Cowser, JAckson Merrill, Sal Frelick and Matt McLain are the only ones with fWAR above 2. This isn't a case of drafting Trubisky over Mahomes (god, can you imagine being a Bears fan?).
Cowser's first year up in 2023, he was able to get 5 singles and 2 doubles in his 77 plate appearances to go along with his .115 batting average. 2024, he finished 2nd in ROY. That gives me hope for the some of the young Bucs.
exactly, it’s a crapshoot!
Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t be who is if he went to Chicago.
Cubs?
Confident Chandler alone will make this a good draft. But it sure would be nice if Davis starts to show why he was a 1-1 pick.
Sadly, I'm starting to think the most likely successful scenario for Davis is something akin to Joey Bart.
to detroit for Torkelson is the baseball trade that makes the most sense
Unless you live in Detroit.
they dont have much in their organization at the catcher position
Hank is better than Jake Rogers
Hank is a good AAA player, feasting on 91 mph FB and hangers, hard to say that he’s better than anyone in the bigs right now. WRC of 34 barely tells the story.