That's always an interesting conversation. Even his strikeout rate has dropped, and he has such good strike zone awareness, but the average has been so underwhelming.
So, I guess it depends on how much you value the first two in the equation. I think a 45 is fair, but with some room to grow into a 50 though, maybe a tad higher if the contact really comes along.
The thing I'm really interested in is how legit the power is. Altoona can be a black hole for lefties, and there were some reports his exit velocity numbers were down last year.
The kid played in A+ as a 19/20 year old and then had @50 AB in AA. Combined, he had 443 AB, 19 doubles, 1 triple, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 85 BB/116 K. We just got done talking about Henry Davis and the failure of this franchise to develop a better hitting program. Yes, TJ's average at A+ was slightly disappointing (.238), but, including the Walks, he carried a .372 OBP at that level!
I have not checked, but I wonder how many of our regulars at the top 3 levels of the minors carried an OBP of .372 last year? The hitters are always going to be looked at as individuals, but the problem is not the talent being drafted - instead it is the weakness of the hitting developmental program of this franchise that has failed miserably. I hope that Hague is the difference maker - and I wonder if this franchise will take steps to emphasize better results out of the hit program.
This has been fun. I love doing a series like this because I can roll through and get multiple done at a time, and it gives me some time to chill. I finished all these going into the weekend, so I've been relaxing since then.
Barco doesn't visually do it for me but I feel like he's gonna end up leap frogging Harrington and Ashcraft very quickly.
Getting big leaguers out of Johnson, Harrington, and Barco would make this a pretty solid draft.
Doesn't hurt that nobody behind Termarr has really lit it up.
crazy how Termarr's pre-draft scouting report and actual performance has differed. What would we give his contact tool now? 45?
Easy to forget his k-rate (21%) was still like 4% under league average for high-A.
I think we've gotta give the guy at least 50-grade contact if he's doing that at his age.
His zone judgment should give him the 50. I think he'll figure out his contact issues with 2 strikes as he matures as a hitter.
Liover Peguero was routinely given praise for his contact ability and struck out 25% of the time in high-A.
This is a really solid comparison and a good measuring stick since Peggy was pretty hyped coming up through the minors
Based on wRC+ from Fangraphs, he's probably closer to 65 hit / 50 power or 60 hit / 55 power now
That's always an interesting conversation. Even his strikeout rate has dropped, and he has such good strike zone awareness, but the average has been so underwhelming.
So, I guess it depends on how much you value the first two in the equation. I think a 45 is fair, but with some room to grow into a 50 though, maybe a tad higher if the contact really comes along.
The thing I'm really interested in is how legit the power is. Altoona can be a black hole for lefties, and there were some reports his exit velocity numbers were down last year.
The kid played in A+ as a 19/20 year old and then had @50 AB in AA. Combined, he had 443 AB, 19 doubles, 1 triple, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 85 BB/116 K. We just got done talking about Henry Davis and the failure of this franchise to develop a better hitting program. Yes, TJ's average at A+ was slightly disappointing (.238), but, including the Walks, he carried a .372 OBP at that level!
I have not checked, but I wonder how many of our regulars at the top 3 levels of the minors carried an OBP of .372 last year? The hitters are always going to be looked at as individuals, but the problem is not the talent being drafted - instead it is the weakness of the hitting developmental program of this franchise that has failed miserably. I hope that Hague is the difference maker - and I wonder if this franchise will take steps to emphasize better results out of the hit program.
Really enjoying this series AM
This has been fun. I love doing a series like this because I can roll through and get multiple done at a time, and it gives me some time to chill. I finished all these going into the weekend, so I've been relaxing since then.
Love it! Also fun to see where guys are since beyond the first few big names in each draft its pretty easy to lose track as a casual-ish fan