Pirates early camp projections: How the roster could shape out
What the roster could look like as Spring Training games are set to begin.
Not many positions will be up for grabs regarding the Pirates lineup, but the bench can shape up in several ways.
Blindly going into when hitters officially report, and before we get any Spring Training games, here’s how I think the lineup will shape up, at least version 1.0.
The Locks
C Henry Davis
C Yasmani Grandal
INF Rowdy Tellez
INF Ke’Bryan Hayes
INF Oneil Cruz
OF Bryan Reynolds
OF Jack Suwinski
DH Andrew McCutchen
The only player on this list that could be considered a surprise would be Davis, as some previous comments and speculation that the former first overall pick could begin the year in Indianapolis.
While the catching at the highest level has always worried me, having someone like Grandal there to take some pressure off of him could go a long way. Ultimately, I believe he will hit enough to earn a roster spot, making it hard to send him down to Triple-A.
Hayes is locked in at third, as are Cruz (shortstop), Reynolds (left field), and Suwinski (center field). McCutchen will be the everyday DH, and Tellez will at least get the nod against righties, so that will be something to monitor as they piece together the bench.
The likely inclusions
Edward Olivares was acquired in the off-season from the Kansas City Royals and reached double-digit home runs and stolen bases in 2023 - he’s probably in, but his exact role is perhaps yet to be determined.
He’s not a good defender, but some outlier metrics point to a lot more upside as an everyday player.
Unless they decide to make Grandal the platoon partner at first base, Connor Joe will probably take that position. He picked up 30 doubles last year, but his role is a little more in question after the addition of Olivares and Grandal.
Second base
This could be a four-person race between Ji-Hwan Bae, Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales, and Liover Peguero.
After a combined 20/20 season between the minors and majors, you could make the case that Peguero has the leg up. Triolo hit well down the stretch in the majors and saw some time at second.
He could also sneak into a role as the platoon guy at first, which would only help his case.
Gonzales was a former top-10 pick but will need to show he can adjust to major league breaking and off-speed pitches, although his track record in the minors doesn’t hint at that.
Bae hit in the minors and has elite speed, but he is probably better defensively in the outfield, where the Pirates don’t have a clear-cut backup center fielder outside of him. That could even give him an inside track at a roster spot.
Outfield
I started writing this before Canaan Smith-Njigba was claimed off of waivers, which adds another potential roster battle to the mix.
He or Joshua Palacios could factor into the outfield picture as a left-handed complement to Olivares. Neither have much time in center field in their career, so unless they plan on kicking Reynolds there on days Suwinski gets off, Bae may have the advantage over both.
Very early prediction (position/secondary)
C/RF Henry Davis
C/1B Yasmani Grandal
1B Rowdy Tellez
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
SS Oneil Cruz
MIF Liover Peguero
1B/2B/3B Jared Triolo
OF Joshua Palacios
CF/OF Jack Suwinski
LF/CF Bryan Reynolds
RF Edward Olivares
1B/RF Connor Joe
DH Andrew McCutchen
Triolo and Peguero split time at second base while also getting looks at shortstop (Peguero) and third (Triolo) as the primary back-ups.
While Bae is probably the ideal candidate to be the backup center fielder, Palacios and Reynolds should be able to string enough games together there to give Suwinski some time off.
They may not be pretty games, but outside of Hayes (and Triolo), defense isn’t exactly the strength of this team. That would limit Joe to mostly a platoon first baseman, but he could still slide into the outfield here and there.
You could also make a case that you could try and trade Joe, who has some years of control left and had a solid year in 2023 despite being slightly misused (injuries forced him to play far more against righties, where he had a sub-100 wRC+ against).
The Pirates have Triolo and Grandal, who could split time as the platoon partner with Tellez.
A lot can happen between now and when the Pirates have to make the final decisions on the Opening Day roster, but heading into actual Spring Training games, this is where I would have it at.
Everyone who can should read the article in The Athletic; “Why the Pirates Keep Losing.” It’s nothing really new and certainly isn’t encouraging, but it spells out things fairly clearly.
I think we will find that our defense will get much better as decisions are made and implemented for the long term. Commit to a MI of Oneil Cruz, 25, and Liover Peguero, 23, for the long term. Combined with Hayes, 27, and Triolo, 26, we have an excellent young infield that will only get better defensively the more they work together. Tellez and Joe are our 2024 First Basemen, and we know going into 2024 that we need to find a power hitting, excellent fielding 1B for 2025.
Our OF of Reynolds and Suwinski are very good, but we have a gap in CF that has existed for many years now. No amount of pitching can reduce the need for a solid defensive CF who can also hit. The Yankees and Pirates have a trade history, and they have a young CF, Everson Pereira 23, who was promoted to MLB last year and did not do well at the plate. Prior to the promotion he had 35 games at AAA and a .937 OPS in those games. Since the season ended, the Yankees have added OF's Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, Alex Verdugo, and Judge and Stanton are back also. Their best young CF, Jasson Dominguez could return from TJ Surgery late this year. The Yankees need relief pitching, and the Pirates are loaded. Take the gamble! Another option CF Ceddanne Rafaela is in Boston, and he put up better numbers at AAA and MLB than Pereira, but he is not as blocked from moving up as Pereira. If BC opens a line of communication with both teams, something good might happen.
We need to have these players in place in 2024 if we expect to be competing for the playoffs in 2025!