I think I really want the pirates to draft Blake Burke with the compA pick. His nickname can be Cannonball and every time he hits one in the river they can show the Will Ferrell scene from Anchorman.
Good question. Not many good answers on the RSN thing. I've had mlb.tv for years but don't live in Pittsburgh (Chicago/Milwaukee). My brother in AZ bought mlb.tv to watch the Nationals (for some reason) and had to add $100 to get the Diamondbacks since Bally's folded up there.
Wonder if conflict with Penguins schedule would cause one or the other not to be televised. I live in TN and have had the package for years. When they play Braves or Reds I get the games on Bally southeast
I don't know if this is interesting or not, but the Pirates have used an average of 63 players per year over the last three years after never using more than 55 players in a year before, including years with full 40-man active rosters available in September. The Opening Day lineup is always going to be fun to figure out and analyze, but it's just a snapshot in time. You can basically count on seeing 37 other players in Pittsburgh over the next six months who didn't make the OD roster.
That's a crazy high number. I'd be pleased with myself if I could sporcle a third of those (and am happy I'm not wasting precious brain space on the other 2/3).
It's really not just a Pirates issue. MLB has used almost 1,500 players per year over the last three years. There aren't 1,500 quality players in baseball. You're seeing about 150-200 more players than usual over just seven years ago (and before). If you go just a few more years back, they used about 1,200 players per year.
No one in 2012 ever claimed that there were too many good players never getting a chance in the majors, yet here we are watching 12 more AAA teams get big league time. I think 1,000 would be a peak number you want to see (30 teams is too many in my opinion too), which is why so many guys are getting used as replacements. Just my estimate, but there are about 500 players each year who really have no business in the majors, yet they can mildly succeed because they get to face other guys 1/3rd of the time who don't belong either. Some can't succeed, so they get their shot and don't return.
I don't think it's going to get any better with these new lower roster limits. I mentioned that there was a noticeable difference to me in Low-A now and Low-A pre-2020 before they cut two levels of the minors. Now they cut back on more players and veterans took the brunt of it according to what I read about free agent signings. The quality of play in the minors has to suffer more. That being said, I would do what they are doing too, keeping tools over guys with AAAA ceilings. A group of raw tools players in one game sucks to watch if you like good baseball, but it's fun if you like prospects and can see potential beyond results.
They can build a safety fort with the pile of money they got for being mediocre on their best day. As a side note, it's crazy now that guys who have no business being in the majors are getting paid great money to do it. That's not to say that the worst players weren't being paid great ten years ago too, but now more guys are getting more pay.
I was just joking. I think guys like them realize how incredibly lucky they are to be making the money that they do. I do kinda respect them in so much as they do keep working just to latch on somewhere each season. Van Meter is a Yankee as a minor leaguer for the moment Tucker was axed last week by Seattle. He just might have to retire and be a stay at home dad if no one picks him up. They will have to make do with his wife’s salary if no one wants him.
You know, for all the narrative about how it's a young man's game now there sure is a sh*tload of really crappy baseball being played by all these young guys that teams have flooding the league.
“dawg. First of all, you throwin' too many big words at me, and because I don't understand them, I'm gonna take 'em as disrespect. Watch your mouth …..Kevin Hart character in 40 year old Virgin…😏
To many fans dismay, the Bucs tend to see something promising in Baily Falter. Rather than hand-wringing, I would love some analysis of what that something might be.
But if one were to be optimistic for Falter, it would look something like he's got limited big league innings after a pretty high prospect grade (45, no worse than most of the Pirate prospects), does a good job limiting baserunners, and is controlling the long ball away from a perfectly respectable back-end starter.
Good fastball, awful curveball. Tighten up FF command, limit damage on breaking stuff, and we're cookin.
He doesn't walk many guys. I've seen people cherry picking his stats but the simplest way to cherry pick them is take out his last 3 innings for the pirates. He was 37.1 34h 9bb 30k 3.62era
Apart from shuffling between positions, I’d bet this is a lot of what we’ll see to start the season.
Mass subs after 5-6 innings brought in Wyatt Hendrie, Francisco Acuna, Brenden Dixon, Connor Scott, Luke Brown, and I think 1-2 other guys. So that’s where Altoona maybe stands now.
A) Jack Brannigan as a legit SS would up his value tremendously in my eyes
B) I'd think Mike Jarvis is just a random guy at 3B but don't like the ripple that makes the infield have with Termarr at DH.
C) Termarr at DH...I'm ok fast tracking his bat if he thinks too much about the field, but he needs to field. Cheng feels like a guy who will be a bench player and I wouldn't prioritize him at 2b over Termarr more than needed.
Brannigan is a solid ballplayer who could possibly lock into more power. And, with his footspeed and arm, why is he not getting some reps in CF? Maybe he will not have the instincts, but being solid at every IF position is an indication that he could develop in CF. And we do have a need for a RH hitter to platoon with 'Ski.
First base remains a major hole on this team. Neither Tellez nor Joe are what anyone could consider desirable or even adequate defensively. Tellez might hit some moon-shot home runs as he hit 35 in 2022, but he’s only hit a total of 92 in his 6 years in the majors in part due to injuries. Joe’s an outfielder trying to play first and usually looks like it. These two guys, if they continue to play the position, are very unlikely to hit well enough to make up for the unnecessary runs that score because of their defensive liabilities.
Kinda of joking, kinda of serious, I hope they draft 2 or 3 guys that might profile at 1st. For example if Kurtz falls to pick 9. Then take a Blake Burke later and or Jared Jones(Lsu) later. I know we lack in other places but a few middle of the order hitters with power would be nice that can field the position. With the dh I'd probably take all 3 of those guys in our first 4 picks if they were available.
My Cardinal fans were upset they lost Malcom Nunez in the Quintana trade because of his raw power. He was hurt most of last year and has not stood out in spring. Maybe he can be a sleeper this year.
Average at best on his weak side is a problem for the pirates? Joe has been a bright spot and a tough out. If I'm exaggerating correctly I think he had 10 straight 3-2 counts last year. But I agree he's a good bench piece I just think in general there hasn't been much respect for him. I hope they don't over expose Tellez.
Didn’t he also get a lot more playing due to injuries to the rest of the club, though? I don’t think the overexposure of him was the organization thinking he should play full time.
How bout you go back and look at some game logs. Several times he would get 4 or 5 game stretches against primarily right handed pitching. His numbers would have been better if not over exposed to his weakness.
I would be surprised if Joe was able to repeat last year's performance. Seems like a one-year at-his-prime anomaly, but I will be more than happy to be wrong and pleasantly surprised.
I've kinda been thinking that too but it's interesting how much his slugging improved after leaving Colorado. And the smaller sample at Colorado the year before he was .848ops in 179ab. The numbers kinda look like a second year slump and he's on the rise
I agree, thought him and Holderman should have been on the trading block for prospects. Joe for a player like Barrosa and Holderman for an upper level prospect or two not on the 40 man.
Would have been my move as well last year around the trade deadline. They might have tried with Joe, and there were no takers. Holderman, they would not have had trouble moving for a reasonable ask.
19 seems about right. We’re probably right outside the outer ring of playoffs contenders. Frustrating, because if they did just a little more, we’re in the middle of the pack
So Cutch is about the worse DH in the league? Not disputing it, just trying to highlight it for those that keep begging for him to be back. Talk about a spot better use by keeping our young bats in the lineup.
2B seems right, honestly. Certainly at this point. All three of those guys had bits and pieces where they looked decent, but by and large…they weren’t very good, as a collective.
Hayes? 3B is an awfully loaded class and his bat has been inconsistent enough to put any higher. Here’s something sobering: Hayes posted a wRC+ of 101 last year, his best full season. Matt Chapman did that in 2021…and it was his worst mark in six full seasons.
Hayes had 3.3 fWAR in 525 PAs last year, and 2.9 in 560 in 2022, so projecting 2.7 over 609 is a decent regression for a guy in his prime coming off his best season. They note that his wRC+ is 91 and that he is in the time a step forward would be expected, but then fail to acknowledge he went from a wRC of +85 in 22 to 101 in 2023. They project his defensive component of WAR will be less than half as valuable as it was each of the last 2 seasons. If Key stays healthy enough for 609 PAs (I use this, bc they don't have defensive innings or games) and performs like he has defensively and somewhere between 2022-2023 offensively, they're probably shorting him close to a whole win.
As for 2B, they have Triolo hitting .247/.328/.353 and slightly above average defensively. I think Triolo will be a very good defensive second basemen, and given they have his ISO almost identical to last year's, I don' think they are taking into account his broken hamate. He's no power hitter, but his minor league track record suggest he should be able to put up an ISO around .130. I think a .260/.340/.390 is well within his reach. They acknolwedge this ranking is harsh.
This is all based on ZiPs and Steamer, which are pretty unreliable for young players with less than 2 full seasons in the majors. This same system projected Baltimore to win 72 games last season. Baltimore won 102... only a 30-game difference. That is why they play the games.
Triolo didn’t have much power before the hamate though. Didn’t he hit 15 homers in the bandbox of High A and that’s it? He also K’d over 30% and had a ridiculously high babip, so regression may hit him hard. There’s a fair chance he crashes this year.
Key? He made a jump last year, but even that only got him to league average. Nothing special there at the plate if he can’t build on it. I do think they’re shorting him in the field though.
I acknowledged he's not a power hitter. But he had ISOs of .150 and .136 in tough hitter parks in low A and AA. I don't think he's Mike Benjamin Lite, soo a .107 ISO seems low to me. And he did have a 30% k rate and a high BABIP, but he never struck out even 20% of the time prior to last year. So lowering his K rate a little and his BABPIB a good amount puts him around .260 instead of .298.
As for Key, as a league average hitter last year, he was worth 3.3 fWar in 525 PAs. Two years ago as a well below average hitter, he was 2.9 fWAR in 560 PAs. To dock him to 2.7 in 609 PAs (not that fWAR is infaliable, but it's what they use) he'd have to be either a new level of real awful with the bat or become simply pretty good at defense.
Another thing about Key is that very few have hit the ball as hard as he has as consistently as he has since he came into the league. The problem was his batted ball profile sucked, pounding the ball into the ground repeatedly. Last year was a noted shift in his batted ball profile, and if he continues getting a little more loft, there's really no reason he can't be a league average hitter playing fantastic defense at a position in the middle of the defensive spectrum.
And yet he's back to putting more than 60% of his contact on the ground this spring.
Not a huge sample, of course, but also not a metric that's as flukey in small samples as average or ERA.
It's really, reeeaaalllyyy rare to change significantly after 1,000 big league at bats, that's all the computers are acknowledging with his '24 projection. Do it two years in a row and they'll adjust.
But... but... but... he's toe-tapping now and then there's that Nunally thing. We'll see how he does this year, but I am still not convinced that Hayes' August and September were more than a small-sample hot streak.
SP, 2b, and C all stand as position groups that i could see ranking substantially higher by midseason. Whether that is via promotion or hank/triolo proving their value
To get the average, we should weight the rotation and pen more heavily than individual positions. But since one of those is very poor and one very good, the simple average wouldn't really be impacted in this case.
I believe the average starting pitcher in MLB last year was a smidge under 5 innings last year which means a bullpen is getting closer to being equally as important as your starters.
So Miami is likely to start lefty's in every game opening weekend. How many games do Rowdy and Jack start? If this was mid-season I would suggest they don't start at all but I do understand (a little) getting everybody into games in the opening weekend. I say Jack at least one (IMO should be max of one) and Rowdy maybe none although I don't know if they really will do that. I don't know the splits of the pitchers(ie. too lazy to do the work) as some may not be nearly as tough on lefties as others (queue opportunity to start Jack or Rowdy).
I'd probably start Jack 3 of 4, partly because I don't think Taylor should start all four after getting the late start. And if Reynold's back is an issue at all, I'd probably give each of our four OFs 3 starts. Like you said, I might think differently if it was midseason, and won't complain if Olivares starts all four with Jack only starting twice.
Williams has an excellent glove but a weak arm and no bat so if Shelton can look a reporter in the eye and tell them he kept Falter because he was excellent at locating his pitches last year (unless he means locating them for the batters to hit) then he will probably tell us what a great eye Williams has at the plate, lol.
Forgot about Priester. If he and Skenes are good enough that they join the rotation in lieu of Marco and Falter/Ortiz, that would be excellent. Chances of both being viable MLB starters by the middle of Summer probably isn't great, but not far fetched either.
T minus 40 hours 30 minutes and counting!!!!!!
I think I really want the pirates to draft Blake Burke with the compA pick. His nickname can be Cannonball and every time he hits one in the river they can show the Will Ferrell scene from Anchorman.
His swing is perfect for PNC!
Im seeing Monty to the Dbacks 1/25... man boras fucked up this offseason in a big way
He’ll get his commission again next year!
Totally underestimated the after effects of the RSN meltdown.
Pretty good deal for the Dbacks.
Their rotation is now top 5? top 3? Top 1?
Should be around 5 give or take.
Then playoffs they can probs have pfaadt as a bullpen weapon for the playoffs, kinda scary ngl
Saw Falter throw today in the Double-A game at Pirate City, and well, it went about as expected. He was getting hammered.
They allow him to drink during games??
I think they should.
Oh wonderful
Spring training stats don't matter... is what I will conveniently lean on 😕
I could see a path to success for him, but whether it comes at the hands of the Pirates is to be determined
SportsNet Pittsburgh--how many games will they televise this year? Trying to decide if I will purchase MLBTV
Good question. Not many good answers on the RSN thing. I've had mlb.tv for years but don't live in Pittsburgh (Chicago/Milwaukee). My brother in AZ bought mlb.tv to watch the Nationals (for some reason) and had to add $100 to get the Diamondbacks since Bally's folded up there.
MLB still pooping on fans.
Wonder if conflict with Penguins schedule would cause one or the other not to be televised. I live in TN and have had the package for years. When they play Braves or Reds I get the games on Bally southeast
T minus 46 hours thirty minutes and counting!!!!
I don't know if this is interesting or not, but the Pirates have used an average of 63 players per year over the last three years after never using more than 55 players in a year before, including years with full 40-man active rosters available in September. The Opening Day lineup is always going to be fun to figure out and analyze, but it's just a snapshot in time. You can basically count on seeing 37 other players in Pittsburgh over the next six months who didn't make the OD roster.
That's a crazy high number. I'd be pleased with myself if I could sporcle a third of those (and am happy I'm not wasting precious brain space on the other 2/3).
It's really not just a Pirates issue. MLB has used almost 1,500 players per year over the last three years. There aren't 1,500 quality players in baseball. You're seeing about 150-200 more players than usual over just seven years ago (and before). If you go just a few more years back, they used about 1,200 players per year.
No one in 2012 ever claimed that there were too many good players never getting a chance in the majors, yet here we are watching 12 more AAA teams get big league time. I think 1,000 would be a peak number you want to see (30 teams is too many in my opinion too), which is why so many guys are getting used as replacements. Just my estimate, but there are about 500 players each year who really have no business in the majors, yet they can mildly succeed because they get to face other guys 1/3rd of the time who don't belong either. Some can't succeed, so they get their shot and don't return.
I don't think it's going to get any better with these new lower roster limits. I mentioned that there was a noticeable difference to me in Low-A now and Low-A pre-2020 before they cut two levels of the minors. Now they cut back on more players and veterans took the brunt of it according to what I read about free agent signings. The quality of play in the minors has to suffer more. That being said, I would do what they are doing too, keeping tools over guys with AAAA ceilings. A group of raw tools players in one game sucks to watch if you like good baseball, but it's fun if you like prospects and can see potential beyond results.
The Josh Van Meters and Cole Tuckers the league are genuinely hurt by your third sentence……
They can build a safety fort with the pile of money they got for being mediocre on their best day. As a side note, it's crazy now that guys who have no business being in the majors are getting paid great money to do it. That's not to say that the worst players weren't being paid great ten years ago too, but now more guys are getting more pay.
I was just joking. I think guys like them realize how incredibly lucky they are to be making the money that they do. I do kinda respect them in so much as they do keep working just to latch on somewhere each season. Van Meter is a Yankee as a minor leaguer for the moment Tucker was axed last week by Seattle. He just might have to retire and be a stay at home dad if no one picks him up. They will have to make do with his wife’s salary if no one wants him.
Truth!
You know, for all the narrative about how it's a young man's game now there sure is a sh*tload of really crappy baseball being played by all these young guys that teams have flooding the league.
Great analysis! Thanks
Naturally:
https://www.sporcle.com/games/metakoopa99/2023-pittsburgh-pirates
The obvious lesson there is that this FO has incredibly little success in finding players worth keeping for any time at all.
whole lotta "seeing what they got".
And a whole lotta concluding, “Nuttin.”
To quote NMR: We'd all be happier expending less mental energy on stuff that will either work out well or quickly go away.
I wouldn’t quote that guy, he’s overrated!
A wise man once said, that jagoff dunno whatese talkin abaht.
“dawg. First of all, you throwin' too many big words at me, and because I don't understand them, I'm gonna take 'em as disrespect. Watch your mouth …..Kevin Hart character in 40 year old Virgin…😏
Do we yet know the moves made to add Jones, Ryan and Stratton to 40 man roster?
No. I doubt the official moves will be made before Thursday.
To many fans dismay, the Bucs tend to see something promising in Baily Falter. Rather than hand-wringing, I would love some analysis of what that something might be.
We'd all be happier expending less mental energy on stuff that will either work out well or quickly go away.
But if one were to be optimistic for Falter, it would look something like he's got limited big league innings after a pretty high prospect grade (45, no worse than most of the Pirate prospects), does a good job limiting baserunners, and is controlling the long ball away from a perfectly respectable back-end starter.
Good fastball, awful curveball. Tighten up FF command, limit damage on breaking stuff, and we're cookin.
He's not hopeless, and I can understand why they want to kick the tires a little more with him.
I think his extension is also good or elite or something so thats probably something else theyve latched onto
As well as having one of those rising fastballs.
He doesn't walk many guys. I've seen people cherry picking his stats but the simplest way to cherry pick them is take out his last 3 innings for the pirates. He was 37.1 34h 9bb 30k 3.62era
These newfangled UFO type pitches
Right. And that plus he is probably out of the system if not rostered gives him an edge over the likes of Quinn.
I wonder if Honeywell stays in the organization if they try to stretch him out as multi-inning reliever or maybe even as a starter.
AA lineup today:
C - Dylan Shockley
1B - Seth Beer
2B - Tsung-Che Cheng
3B - Mike Jarvis
SS - Jack Brannigan
OF - Tres Gonzalez, Jase Bowen, Matt Fraizer
DH - Termarr Johnson
Apart from shuffling between positions, I’d bet this is a lot of what we’ll see to start the season.
Mass subs after 5-6 innings brought in Wyatt Hendrie, Francisco Acuna, Brenden Dixon, Connor Scott, Luke Brown, and I think 1-2 other guys. So that’s where Altoona maybe stands now.
A) Jack Brannigan as a legit SS would up his value tremendously in my eyes
B) I'd think Mike Jarvis is just a random guy at 3B but don't like the ripple that makes the infield have with Termarr at DH.
C) Termarr at DH...I'm ok fast tracking his bat if he thinks too much about the field, but he needs to field. Cheng feels like a guy who will be a bench player and I wouldn't prioritize him at 2b over Termarr more than needed.
Termarr was just DH today. They’ve all been moving around constantly.
Brannigan has a very strong Triolo vibe. Put him anywhere and he’ll be good.
Brannigan is a solid ballplayer who could possibly lock into more power. And, with his footspeed and arm, why is he not getting some reps in CF? Maybe he will not have the instincts, but being solid at every IF position is an indication that he could develop in CF. And we do have a need for a RH hitter to platoon with 'Ski.
When I talked to him in Greensboro he mentioned he played some outfield growing up.
I could see them getting him in the outfield down the road if the swing and miss issue lingers to fully buy into the 'bench utility' role
Interesting if they really do have Termarr start in AA.
On one hand I love the aggressive push, but also thought he could use a little more time in High A
I’m concerned that he may be starting to get pull happy
Part of me wants him out of greensboro so he doesnt get too sucked into the false power he might get there
good point. seems like he's already a bit drunk on his actual power.
Forgot they got Beer. My gut says he is never going to make it. Guess that is a glass half empty mindset.
Maybe Altoona can do a dime beer night.
Saw the catcher is Shockley. Maybe offer Shock Top pints half off when he gets past 2nd base.
Free pints of Shock Top would be a bad deal. Minimum of $15/pint to pay anyone in the crowd willing to drink that piss.
As long as there is a Les Nesman impersonator doing the radio play by play…. “Oh the Humanity!!!” as the fans “Cleveland” on Altoona 🤣🤣
Thats a half a beer mindset
Hold my beer…..er…..half beer…..
Hold my can missing half its beer vs hold my half beer lol
First base remains a major hole on this team. Neither Tellez nor Joe are what anyone could consider desirable or even adequate defensively. Tellez might hit some moon-shot home runs as he hit 35 in 2022, but he’s only hit a total of 92 in his 6 years in the majors in part due to injuries. Joe’s an outfielder trying to play first and usually looks like it. These two guys, if they continue to play the position, are very unlikely to hit well enough to make up for the unnecessary runs that score because of their defensive liabilities.
Kinda of joking, kinda of serious, I hope they draft 2 or 3 guys that might profile at 1st. For example if Kurtz falls to pick 9. Then take a Blake Burke later and or Jared Jones(Lsu) later. I know we lack in other places but a few middle of the order hitters with power would be nice that can field the position. With the dh I'd probably take all 3 of those guys in our first 4 picks if they were available.
My Cardinal fans were upset they lost Malcom Nunez in the Quintana trade because of his raw power. He was hurt most of last year and has not stood out in spring. Maybe he can be a sleeper this year.
Maybe, hope he has a healthy season and back hitting like 2022 or better.
Where is this Connor Joe sucks at 1b narrative coming from?
It's just subjective garbage, as Joe grades out well @ 1b.
He made a nice pick yesterday at 1st base......the ultimate SSS take.
He writes that every chance he gets! 😂
Consistently a hair above avg by OAA and RAA, better than that by UZR.
Joe is fine at 1st for a short sided platoon and spot duty. Just hope they don't over expose him like last year on the offensive side of the game.
Overexpose him? Where are you guys getting this info? 107wRC+ for a bench player is good, as is the 1.9fWAR.
Info is easy to find
Painful part is looking at a stat shelty has zero idea exists
go to connor joe stats
Splits,
RISP
2022 Coors field 15-85, 23 K--.176/.304/.259/.563
2023 PNC Park 17-103, 32K---.165/.287/.291/.578
Total last 2yrs 32-188, 55K
Stat line is so hideous, makes you wonder how someone is that bad
Well, he had some help from a loser skipper
The IDIOT had to know the stat out of Colorado, so what did he do?
The loser thought it was a good idea to bat JOE
in a RUN PRODUCING spot every game, every one of 103 AB's
Kept running him out there, game after game penciled somewhere between 3-6 spot
This is a question my wife asked me last June
"Are they still tanking or was he raised under power lines as a child"
BC, I understand he's your BUD, but he's a wreckless skip fruit
IN WAY OVER HIS HEAD, sooner you realize, the longer you will be the GM
Playing in over 130 games is not a bench player. He hits left handed pitching very well but is average at best against right handed pitching.
I agree he is a good bench piece.
Average at best on his weak side is a problem for the pirates? Joe has been a bright spot and a tough out. If I'm exaggerating correctly I think he had 10 straight 3-2 counts last year. But I agree he's a good bench piece I just think in general there hasn't been much respect for him. I hope they don't over expose Tellez.
Didn’t he also get a lot more playing due to injuries to the rest of the club, though? I don’t think the overexposure of him was the organization thinking he should play full time.
How bout you go back and look at some game logs. Several times he would get 4 or 5 game stretches against primarily right handed pitching. His numbers would have been better if not over exposed to his weakness.
I would be surprised if Joe was able to repeat last year's performance. Seems like a one-year at-his-prime anomaly, but I will be more than happy to be wrong and pleasantly surprised.
I've kinda been thinking that too but it's interesting how much his slugging improved after leaving Colorado. And the smaller sample at Colorado the year before he was .848ops in 179ab. The numbers kinda look like a second year slump and he's on the rise
I agree, thought him and Holderman should have been on the trading block for prospects. Joe for a player like Barrosa and Holderman for an upper level prospect or two not on the 40 man.
You’re crazy!!!! Holderman for Jackson Holiday and Cowser and Joe for Tilderman.
Would have been my move as well last year around the trade deadline. They might have tried with Joe, and there were no takers. Holderman, they would not have had trouble moving for a reasonable ask.
FG concluded (or concludes tomorrow) their positional rankings. Here’s where the Bucs ranked in each group.
C-19
1B-28
2B-29
SS-15
3B-11
LF-12
CF-25
RF-15
DH-28
RP-4
SP-26
The average rank of all of those spots ends up at 19, which is better than I would have guessed with numerous bottom 5 categories.
19 seems about right. We’re probably right outside the outer ring of playoffs contenders. Frustrating, because if they did just a little more, we’re in the middle of the pack
So Cutch is about the worse DH in the league? Not disputing it, just trying to highlight it for those that keep begging for him to be back. Talk about a spot better use by keeping our young bats in the lineup.
Ehhh, Cutch is still a decent bat, especially with his OBP. Power is mostly gone. Who do you want to give those at-bats to?
Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, Davis……
I thought they were significantly low on 2B and low on Key at third too.
2B seems right, honestly. Certainly at this point. All three of those guys had bits and pieces where they looked decent, but by and large…they weren’t very good, as a collective.
Hayes? 3B is an awfully loaded class and his bat has been inconsistent enough to put any higher. Here’s something sobering: Hayes posted a wRC+ of 101 last year, his best full season. Matt Chapman did that in 2021…and it was his worst mark in six full seasons.
Hayes had 3.3 fWAR in 525 PAs last year, and 2.9 in 560 in 2022, so projecting 2.7 over 609 is a decent regression for a guy in his prime coming off his best season. They note that his wRC+ is 91 and that he is in the time a step forward would be expected, but then fail to acknowledge he went from a wRC of +85 in 22 to 101 in 2023. They project his defensive component of WAR will be less than half as valuable as it was each of the last 2 seasons. If Key stays healthy enough for 609 PAs (I use this, bc they don't have defensive innings or games) and performs like he has defensively and somewhere between 2022-2023 offensively, they're probably shorting him close to a whole win.
As for 2B, they have Triolo hitting .247/.328/.353 and slightly above average defensively. I think Triolo will be a very good defensive second basemen, and given they have his ISO almost identical to last year's, I don' think they are taking into account his broken hamate. He's no power hitter, but his minor league track record suggest he should be able to put up an ISO around .130. I think a .260/.340/.390 is well within his reach. They acknolwedge this ranking is harsh.
This is all based on ZiPs and Steamer, which are pretty unreliable for young players with less than 2 full seasons in the majors. This same system projected Baltimore to win 72 games last season. Baltimore won 102... only a 30-game difference. That is why they play the games.
Triolo didn’t have much power before the hamate though. Didn’t he hit 15 homers in the bandbox of High A and that’s it? He also K’d over 30% and had a ridiculously high babip, so regression may hit him hard. There’s a fair chance he crashes this year.
Key? He made a jump last year, but even that only got him to league average. Nothing special there at the plate if he can’t build on it. I do think they’re shorting him in the field though.
I acknowledged he's not a power hitter. But he had ISOs of .150 and .136 in tough hitter parks in low A and AA. I don't think he's Mike Benjamin Lite, soo a .107 ISO seems low to me. And he did have a 30% k rate and a high BABIP, but he never struck out even 20% of the time prior to last year. So lowering his K rate a little and his BABPIB a good amount puts him around .260 instead of .298.
As for Key, as a league average hitter last year, he was worth 3.3 fWar in 525 PAs. Two years ago as a well below average hitter, he was 2.9 fWAR in 560 PAs. To dock him to 2.7 in 609 PAs (not that fWAR is infaliable, but it's what they use) he'd have to be either a new level of real awful with the bat or become simply pretty good at defense.
Another thing about Key is that very few have hit the ball as hard as he has as consistently as he has since he came into the league. The problem was his batted ball profile sucked, pounding the ball into the ground repeatedly. Last year was a noted shift in his batted ball profile, and if he continues getting a little more loft, there's really no reason he can't be a league average hitter playing fantastic defense at a position in the middle of the defensive spectrum.
And yet he's back to putting more than 60% of his contact on the ground this spring.
Not a huge sample, of course, but also not a metric that's as flukey in small samples as average or ERA.
It's really, reeeaaalllyyy rare to change significantly after 1,000 big league at bats, that's all the computers are acknowledging with his '24 projection. Do it two years in a row and they'll adjust.
I suppose we shall see. But my general point is using Fangraphs own system, I'm not sure how they came up with the fWAR number they did.
But... but... but... he's toe-tapping now and then there's that Nunally thing. We'll see how he does this year, but I am still not convinced that Hayes' August and September were more than a small-sample hot streak.
SP, 2b, and C all stand as position groups that i could see ranking substantially higher by midseason. Whether that is via promotion or hank/triolo proving their value
Agreed. They basically say as much in the 2B write up, that any combo of Gonzo/Peggy/Triolo could break out and they’d be in better shape.
To get the average, we should weight the rotation and pen more heavily than individual positions. But since one of those is very poor and one very good, the simple average wouldn't really be impacted in this case.
I believe the average starting pitcher in MLB last year was a smidge under 5 innings last year which means a bullpen is getting closer to being equally as important as your starters.
Probably. The weighing is for a smarter man than I.
19 feels about right for the team overall. just outside the bottom 1/3, hopefully trending up
So Miami is likely to start lefty's in every game opening weekend. How many games do Rowdy and Jack start? If this was mid-season I would suggest they don't start at all but I do understand (a little) getting everybody into games in the opening weekend. I say Jack at least one (IMO should be max of one) and Rowdy maybe none although I don't know if they really will do that. I don't know the splits of the pitchers(ie. too lazy to do the work) as some may not be nearly as tough on lefties as others (queue opportunity to start Jack or Rowdy).
I'd probably start Jack 3 of 4, partly because I don't think Taylor should start all four after getting the late start. And if Reynold's back is an issue at all, I'd probably give each of our four OFs 3 starts. Like you said, I might think differently if it was midseason, and won't complain if Olivares starts all four with Jack only starting twice.
I would start Olivares and Joe.
Williams has an excellent glove but a weak arm and no bat so if Shelton can look a reporter in the eye and tell them he kept Falter because he was excellent at locating his pitches last year (unless he means locating them for the batters to hit) then he will probably tell us what a great eye Williams has at the plate, lol.
He really executed those swings and misses.
I missed baseball so much 🥲
Also I agree, thought Priester looked better. A little disappointed but hopefully he'll force his way up sooner or later!
Forgot about Priester. If he and Skenes are good enough that they join the rotation in lieu of Marco and Falter/Ortiz, that would be excellent. Chances of both being viable MLB starters by the middle of Summer probably isn't great, but not far fetched either.
Better rotation?
Bucs: Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Jones, Falter
Indy: Skenes, Priester, Lauer, German, Ashcraft (do we know where he's starting?)
It’s a toss up because of Keller. German, lauer and skenes are better than Perez gonzales, and falter.