Pirates rotation still has it's question marks entering new year

How is the Pirates rotation shaping up as the new year turns over?

Photo Credit: WTM

We are now into January and are about six weeks from pitchers and catchers from reporting to Spring Training. There’s still time for teams to add players, as several big-name free agents are still available.

Barring any other free-agent signings or trades, we are starting to get a good idea of what players the Pirates will bring into camp for the 2024 season.

That includes the rotation, where General Manager Ben Cherington has made multiple moves to boost a position of need that was hit with a big blow during the off-season.

With Johan Oviedo set to miss the entire season, the Pirates had three players on their 40-man roster who made 10 or more starts in 2023 going into next year.

So, starting pitching was perhaps the team’s biggest priority during the off-season.

Now that we are in January, here is how the starting rotation is shaping up based on who is on the 40-man roster.

Locks

Mitch Keller

Marco Gonzales

As of writing this, the Martin Perez deal has yet to be finalized, but once it is, it will lock a third player in for the rotation to start the season.

Keller made his first All-Star game last year and won a career-high 13 games for the Pirates. His progress as a major league pitcher has been remarkable as he adapted his game until he found something that worked.

If there are 99 questions about the rotation, Keller isn’t one of them.

Gonzales joins the team through a trade with the Atlanta Braves. He is coming off a season cut short due to an injury and eventual surgery to deal with a nerve issue in his forearm.

As problematic as that sounds for a pitcher, there hasn’t been any talk of concern about his potential readiness for the season and his ability to contribute.

He threw 183 innings in 2022, a number that the Pirates are most likely interested in regarding his contributions. Gonzales is an extreme pitch-to-contact pitcher, with 665 career strikeouts in 893 innings pitched.

Started some games last year

Bailey Falter

The Pirates apparently really like him, and if you look at some of his pitch metrics and compare them to other players they’ve brought into the system, it’s easy to see why. He had one blow-up game at the end of the season (8 ER in 2 IP) that cratered his ERA, but he was solid for the Pirates, although his best fit still seems to be a multi-inning guy out of the bullpen.

Then again, he does fit the ‘soft-throwing-lefty’ mold that doesn’t get many whiffs with the stuff the Pirates love in their rotation. Having Falter in the rotation would give them a ‘three-of-a-kind’ with Perez and Gonzales.

Luis Ortiz

Ortiz played in the Dominican Winter League this off-season, where his walks were down and strikeouts up - both good to hear.

He also allowed 19 hits in 6.2 innings pitched, which is quite impressive when you think about it.

I’d have to believe the Pirates would love it if Ortiz figured things out, but his stuff has always been more hittable than you’d want it to be, but fans always like to point out his four-game debut in 2022.

Roansy Contreras

His 2022 rookie season gave hope that he’d at least be a back-of-the-rotation starter, but he also cratered in 2023, which even saw him get sent to the Complex League to work on things.

Contreras is out of options, so you can argue that as long as he doesn’t completely bomb in Spring Training, he will have an inside track toward a rotation spot.

Quinn Priester

A former first-round pick, Priester got the first nine batters out that he faced in his major-league debut, but it mostly went downhill from there. He allowed two runs over six innings in his second to last start of the season but also walked five and struck out just four.

His slider had a whiff rate of over 40% and was his second most used pitch, but when hitters made contact, they did with authority (.659 slugging).

Returning from injury

Mike Burrows

One of the team’s top pitching prospects, he pitched twice last year before undergoing Tommy John surgery. The most effective way to use him in 2024 may be as a multi-inning reliever, but he could boost the rotation midseason if everything goes right.

Max Kranick

Before his injury, Kranick threw in the upper 90s but still hadn’t figured it out in the majors after his debut. He returned last year and averaged 92.5 mph on 125 fastballs in Indianapolis (according to Prospect Live).

If he makes it to camp on the 40-man, he could be a sleeper pick to earn a rotation spot, especially since the Pirates have gone through so much to keep him around.

JT Brubaker

He was having an incredible spring up to when he got hurt. Brubaker has always seemed to be one step away from really breaking out.

Like Burrows, the most effective way to use him may be out of the bullpen in a multi-inning role, but there are few pitchers on the 40-man with an established track record in the majors, Brubaker is one of them.

Prospects

Jackson Wolf

Acquired in the Ji-Man Choi/Rich Hill trade, Wolf fits the mold of the lower arm slot, release angle type of pitcher the Pirates have stockpiled in their organization recently. He made his major league debut last year with the Padres, which is why he’s on the 40-man.

He’ll probably start the year in the Triple-A rotation but could get a shot at some point in 2024.

Braxton Ashcraft

Coming back from Tommy John in 2023, the Pirates were very cautious with Ashcraft’s workload, only throwing 52.2 innings between three levels.

Of pitchers who pitched at least 50 innings, only Joshua Loeschorn had a better K-BB% than Ashcraft. It’s exciting to think what he can do as an actual starter, but it remains to be seen if that’s what the Pirates have in mind for him.

Final Analysis

With the way the rotation is starting to take shape, the first few months may be a little rough, but they get plenty of support later on, and not just from the likes of Burrows and Brubaker - but also prospects like Paul Skenes.

Priester will be 23 for most of the 2024 season, so he may get some added time in Triple-A before coming up again.

Mitch Keller

Marco Gonzales

Luis Ortiz

Roansy Contreras

Quinn Priester

This could be the Opening Day rotation, with Priester sliding to Triple-A once the Perez deal becomes official. He could later rejoin as mid-to-late season support along with Brubaker, Burrows, Ashcraft, and Wolf.

There’s some upside with the back end of the rotation, but not much in terms of actual success recently. The Pirates have been rumored to be hunting more pitching, either on the free-agent route or by trade.

After last season, depth is going to be crucial. They added a couple more names to the mix but could use more when it comes to help out the gate. Adding another pitcher could give valuable time to develop some of their younger pitchers.