Nick Gonzalez has started at SS at the ML level. His ridiculous bat speed and raw power at SS means he has value. It might need to be in another org. In the right ballpark he's a 30HR guy... but BA might always be low.
The Pirates are looking to artificially expand their active roster by having second basemen who can play multiple positions well defensively, and add a specialty offensively. In 2023 Jared Triolo, Ji-Hwan Bae, and Liover Peguero have all been better fits for that definition. Triolo was a GG 3B in the minors who can also be a strong fielding SS, 2B, and 1B. He also had a .350 wOBA and a 118 wRC+. Bae plays 2B and CF well, and stole 25 bases/80% success rate. Peguero 2 or 3 years younger than the others is a strong SS/2B, and hit for better power than all of the others. And, Termarr Johnson is moving quickly through the minors.
Nick Gonzales is a VG defensive 2B, but he has to clear up the swing and miss issue. I doubt he will ever be a power hitter in MLB, but he can be a better overall hitter if he can make more consistent contact. I expect the Pirates will try to move Nick this off-season, and Tucupita Marcano when he is healthy.
I don't think they'll be quick to trade any of them because they don't know exactly what all of them are. You could say we know what Tucupita is but he's still so young (He and Henry Davis are both 24.1 y/o). If I was GM I'd have Gonzo in AAA to start season playing SS and RF... I'd have Bae be a 4th OF and starter against most RHPs and have Triolo be everyday 3B in AAA and the first call when there's an injury. I'd like Triolo to play everyday. Tucu could be a ML bench bat.
I don’t think the organization should wait and see what all the players are yet. They don’t have the time and space to give all of them a full season or even less to see what they have. With the team committed to Cruz at short, they have Gonzales, Peguro, Bae, and Triolo for one position and a utility guy. May as well trade some of that surplus for a need.
Sorry, just not buying this Brannigan breakout. Unsustainable BABIP in A+ and a pretty big deviation is his batted ball profile that likely led to these results. TJ is by far the better run creator and producer at the same levels and is three years his junior.
There’s just too much deviation historically, and his 2023 numbers outperformed his expected stats by a wide margin across the board. EV, hard hit %, and barrel rate, all trending the wrong way. It will be a huge overpay.
Thanks. I was looking at his FG page and some stuff is just weird. Dropping his K rate by almost half is great! But his expected OBA is way off from what he actually did on the field indicating regression. And those other stats you mentioned (EV, barrel, etc.) certainly took a deep drop.
I have no idea what he’s actually gonna get contract wise. He’s young, versatile, and while it looks like you’re right that he’s over his skis this past season, he’s probably still a good regular.
I’m not a scout, and I have never seen Termarr live, but my recollection of his pre-draft video was that he made contact on pitches all over the zone, but a lot was weak contact. I wonder if there was a deliberate decision to focus less on contact and more on swinging hard (that’s probably overly simplistic) but if so, I wonder if that’s a good strategy overall. I wouldn’t mind a Freddy Sanchez-type bat on this team, instead of a Javier Baez-bat.
I know what you're getting at but Javy Baez is an exceptionally poor comp to what Termarr is right now.
Baez never saw a pitch he didn't swing at, where as Termarr is if anything too passive.
You saw Termarr make contact all over the zone in his pre-draft video because he was facing literal children throwing 80 mph. Against grown-ass men with the nastiest stuff on the planet, those are now swings and misses.
Nick Gonzales did not change at all between college and pro, he simply went from facing the Little Sisters of the Poor to actual competition. Same goes for Termarr. A failure of scouts to account for quality of competition when projecting a player's future potential, with a huge helping of bias in that both players are short and therefor must be hit over power (lol).
If scouts had a shred of humility they'd acknowledge these were both scouting mistakes instead of implying that the players themselves are at fault.
Good response. Are you less optimistic about Termarr than NG one year in? More?
Agree on your take with scouts. If I’ll allow myself to be an old man who yells at a cloud, I wonder if the absurd takes tossed around by scouts is a desire to be heard and be forceful in their views.
And you're absolutely right about the entertainment scouts. There's absolutely zero penalty for being wrong and readers won't reward you for milquetoast takes. Using your BA or Pipeline or BP or blogging gig as a big club tryout is about all that keeps them honest.
If he were 6'2" coming out of the draft every scout would've tabbed him as the power hitting prospect he actually is and we'd all be celebrating the expected bumps highlighted by the best power/patience combo of any prospect in recent memory.
I think he's got a lot of maturing to do. Still takes massive hacks and swings through too many pitches as Wilbur has pointed out, and he's also not really playable in the field right now at the big league level, but if he gets there...
Probably a question for Wilbur here, but I’d think that swinging through pitches in the zone is a cause of his swing from the heels approach. Is that an approach issue or something else? I can appreciate a kid who is trying to do damage at the plate (and he does a good bit), but hopefully he can temper some of that...Big-Hackitis.
The fielding does sound pretty rough. Hopefully he can stay on the dirt.
singles aren't worth anything in the current game.. even with the new SB rules. It's EV or nothing. Termarr luckily has a couple great tools: great eye, tons of raw power. Now if he marries the great bat to ball skills he's known for WITH the patience and power he's a perennial all-star.
Given that this system doesn’t have a whole lot of power, I’m good with Termarr’s change in approach...so far. Scott is right: increased, but weaker contact doesn’t do as much damage as what Termarr is doing. The key in 24 is if this sustains as he climbs the ladder.
As Wilbur has noted, there are some caution flags, missing hittable pitches in the zone for one. And it’s hard to tell if his walks are a function of non competitive minor league pitches or maybe he really is a Mickey Tettleton who can play second base. Termarr’s numbers are not close to Baez in terms of walks...the pitcher could roll the ball up to the plate like a bowling ball and Javy would swing at it.
Those same non competitive minor league pitches are being thrown to all of his peers and almost none are pushing a bb rate in the low 20% and a bb/k ratio of .9. I don’t think he faced one pitcher this year that was actually younger than him. Maybe Wilbur would know this, but does TJ even have an EV problem?
Oh yeah I think TJ’s pitch recognition certainly is well above average. Just saying that I’m not sure he’ll be rocking 20% walk rates as he goes up because the pitching gets better.
Pirates need to score roughly 100 more runs to be a good offensive club. To do that they need more power hitters in the lineup. No substitute for hard contact.
Don’t disagree that it would be nice to have a legit power bat, but it doesn’t seem like anyone is thrilled with Nick Gonzales’ development into a power over contact 2B (except ballsandgutters, I guess) so it surprises me that we’d be on board with Termarr trending the same way.
I mean, do people realize Nick Gonzales had 60 XBH’s between AAA/MLB this year?! That’s bonkers! Yet, Jack Brannigan wins organizational hitter of the year with a whopping 36 XBH’s 🤔
There are some differences between T and NG though. At high A in 21, NG walked at an 11% clip and K’d at 27% as a 22 year old. And if memory serves, I think 14 of his 18 homers were at home and he had a really unsustainable batting average on balls in play.
At the same level this season, T walked more than twice as often and struck out less...and he was three years younger. So given the age and performance differences, fans are more optimistic about T.
It is odd that both guys came with “hit over power” reps. Was that industry-wide perception wrong? Did the Bucs try to change both guys approaches?
Malcom Nunez AAA sleeper
Nick Gonzalez has started at SS at the ML level. His ridiculous bat speed and raw power at SS means he has value. It might need to be in another org. In the right ballpark he's a 30HR guy... but BA might always be low.
poor man's Dan Uggla, lets hope.
The Pirates are looking to artificially expand their active roster by having second basemen who can play multiple positions well defensively, and add a specialty offensively. In 2023 Jared Triolo, Ji-Hwan Bae, and Liover Peguero have all been better fits for that definition. Triolo was a GG 3B in the minors who can also be a strong fielding SS, 2B, and 1B. He also had a .350 wOBA and a 118 wRC+. Bae plays 2B and CF well, and stole 25 bases/80% success rate. Peguero 2 or 3 years younger than the others is a strong SS/2B, and hit for better power than all of the others. And, Termarr Johnson is moving quickly through the minors.
Nick Gonzales is a VG defensive 2B, but he has to clear up the swing and miss issue. I doubt he will ever be a power hitter in MLB, but he can be a better overall hitter if he can make more consistent contact. I expect the Pirates will try to move Nick this off-season, and Tucupita Marcano when he is healthy.
I don't think they'll be quick to trade any of them because they don't know exactly what all of them are. You could say we know what Tucupita is but he's still so young (He and Henry Davis are both 24.1 y/o). If I was GM I'd have Gonzo in AAA to start season playing SS and RF... I'd have Bae be a 4th OF and starter against most RHPs and have Triolo be everyday 3B in AAA and the first call when there's an injury. I'd like Triolo to play everyday. Tucu could be a ML bench bat.
I don’t think the organization should wait and see what all the players are yet. They don’t have the time and space to give all of them a full season or even less to see what they have. With the team committed to Cruz at short, they have Gonzales, Peguro, Bae, and Triolo for one position and a utility guy. May as well trade some of that surplus for a need.
They're fine keeping them for another half season. Plus there WILL be an injury to at least one of them.
Sorry, just not buying this Brannigan breakout. Unsustainable BABIP in A+ and a pretty big deviation is his batted ball profile that likely led to these results. TJ is by far the better run creator and producer at the same levels and is three years his junior.
I can’t imagine anyone maintaining Brannigan is on Termarr’s level as a prospect.
K% of 34% as a 22-year-old in high A, is a major red flag.
My ideal 2024 infield for Pirates is:
1B - Bellinger
2B- Peguero
SS- Cruz
3B - Hayes
UT- Triolo
What I expect:
Substitute Santana for Bellinger.
Pretty good infield, but with Bellinger it could be elite.
Obviously, they're not signing CB. But, if they did, I'd probably be pretty tempted to put him in CF and trade for a 1b.
Reynolds-Belly-Suwinski = B.O.B!
Bellinger will be one of the worst FA contract signings of this upcoming FA class. Book it!
Reverse jinx post.
Why’s that? I think it’s fair to be cautious given his 21 and 22, but I don’t think he was 100% over that time either.
There’s just too much deviation historically, and his 2023 numbers outperformed his expected stats by a wide margin across the board. EV, hard hit %, and barrel rate, all trending the wrong way. It will be a huge overpay.
Thanks. I was looking at his FG page and some stuff is just weird. Dropping his K rate by almost half is great! But his expected OBA is way off from what he actually did on the field indicating regression. And those other stats you mentioned (EV, barrel, etc.) certainly took a deep drop.
I have no idea what he’s actually gonna get contract wise. He’s young, versatile, and while it looks like you’re right that he’s over his skis this past season, he’s probably still a good regular.
I’m not a scout, and I have never seen Termarr live, but my recollection of his pre-draft video was that he made contact on pitches all over the zone, but a lot was weak contact. I wonder if there was a deliberate decision to focus less on contact and more on swinging hard (that’s probably overly simplistic) but if so, I wonder if that’s a good strategy overall. I wouldn’t mind a Freddy Sanchez-type bat on this team, instead of a Javier Baez-bat.
I know what you're getting at but Javy Baez is an exceptionally poor comp to what Termarr is right now.
Baez never saw a pitch he didn't swing at, where as Termarr is if anything too passive.
You saw Termarr make contact all over the zone in his pre-draft video because he was facing literal children throwing 80 mph. Against grown-ass men with the nastiest stuff on the planet, those are now swings and misses.
Nick Gonzales did not change at all between college and pro, he simply went from facing the Little Sisters of the Poor to actual competition. Same goes for Termarr. A failure of scouts to account for quality of competition when projecting a player's future potential, with a huge helping of bias in that both players are short and therefor must be hit over power (lol).
If scouts had a shred of humility they'd acknowledge these were both scouting mistakes instead of implying that the players themselves are at fault.
Good response. Are you less optimistic about Termarr than NG one year in? More?
Agree on your take with scouts. If I’ll allow myself to be an old man who yells at a cloud, I wonder if the absurd takes tossed around by scouts is a desire to be heard and be forceful in their views.
And you're absolutely right about the entertainment scouts. There's absolutely zero penalty for being wrong and readers won't reward you for milquetoast takes. Using your BA or Pipeline or BP or blogging gig as a big club tryout is about all that keeps them honest.
Way, way more optimistic.
If he were 6'2" coming out of the draft every scout would've tabbed him as the power hitting prospect he actually is and we'd all be celebrating the expected bumps highlighted by the best power/patience combo of any prospect in recent memory.
I think he's got a lot of maturing to do. Still takes massive hacks and swings through too many pitches as Wilbur has pointed out, and he's also not really playable in the field right now at the big league level, but if he gets there...
Probably a question for Wilbur here, but I’d think that swinging through pitches in the zone is a cause of his swing from the heels approach. Is that an approach issue or something else? I can appreciate a kid who is trying to do damage at the plate (and he does a good bit), but hopefully he can temper some of that...Big-Hackitis.
The fielding does sound pretty rough. Hopefully he can stay on the dirt.
singles aren't worth anything in the current game.. even with the new SB rules. It's EV or nothing. Termarr luckily has a couple great tools: great eye, tons of raw power. Now if he marries the great bat to ball skills he's known for WITH the patience and power he's a perennial all-star.
Given that this system doesn’t have a whole lot of power, I’m good with Termarr’s change in approach...so far. Scott is right: increased, but weaker contact doesn’t do as much damage as what Termarr is doing. The key in 24 is if this sustains as he climbs the ladder.
As Wilbur has noted, there are some caution flags, missing hittable pitches in the zone for one. And it’s hard to tell if his walks are a function of non competitive minor league pitches or maybe he really is a Mickey Tettleton who can play second base. Termarr’s numbers are not close to Baez in terms of walks...the pitcher could roll the ball up to the plate like a bowling ball and Javy would swing at it.
Those same non competitive minor league pitches are being thrown to all of his peers and almost none are pushing a bb rate in the low 20% and a bb/k ratio of .9. I don’t think he faced one pitcher this year that was actually younger than him. Maybe Wilbur would know this, but does TJ even have an EV problem?
Oh yeah I think TJ’s pitch recognition certainly is well above average. Just saying that I’m not sure he’ll be rocking 20% walk rates as he goes up because the pitching gets better.
Pirates need to score roughly 100 more runs to be a good offensive club. To do that they need more power hitters in the lineup. No substitute for hard contact.
They definitely need more XBH for sure.
Don’t disagree that it would be nice to have a legit power bat, but it doesn’t seem like anyone is thrilled with Nick Gonzales’ development into a power over contact 2B (except ballsandgutters, I guess) so it surprises me that we’d be on board with Termarr trending the same way.
I mean, do people realize Nick Gonzales had 60 XBH’s between AAA/MLB this year?! That’s bonkers! Yet, Jack Brannigan wins organizational hitter of the year with a whopping 36 XBH’s 🤔
There are some differences between T and NG though. At high A in 21, NG walked at an 11% clip and K’d at 27% as a 22 year old. And if memory serves, I think 14 of his 18 homers were at home and he had a really unsustainable batting average on balls in play.
At the same level this season, T walked more than twice as often and struck out less...and he was three years younger. So given the age and performance differences, fans are more optimistic about T.
It is odd that both guys came with “hit over power” reps. Was that industry-wide perception wrong? Did the Bucs try to change both guys approaches?