Kinda late chiming in here, but I saw a lot of Curtis and he always seemed very sharp for two innings and then hit a wall. So I checked the splits and, yep, he really hits a wall in his third inning.
So several possibilities. Given the injury history it’s very possible he just needs time to build up and get healthy. Murph mentioned he doesn’t fully have the feeling back in his hand. He LOOKS like a potential starter. Or, he’s a 1-2 inning guy, maybe a really good one.
There are some guys here I see as relievers, if anything, down the road—Dotel, Jimenez, Massey. Curtis is less clear. Reed probably, too, although it’s maybe more 60/40 toward starter in his case.
Ashcraft, Burrows and Barco scream “Earl Weaver.” Harrington, with his command, should just start if he stays on track. My feeling on Diamond is, Meh.
Bubba is in his own category. Once it looks like he can pitch to ML hitters, just roll with him.
OT, but I just saw where the Yankees will get $15MM from the Rays for use of their spring training/low A field in Tampa this season. This makes sense but still, the Rays paying the Yankees that amount just _feels_ wrong.
Hes probably my top arm to trade (fuck would it hurt) but for a real impact bat or two. His value has to be sky high but his risk vs value right now is extreme. Hurts to type but executing that move well might get us to the postseason imo
Are you saying you believe Jones is a TJ candidate if he remains a SP?
I don’t know if there’s anyway to tell who will breakdown and who won’t. But the eye test says Jones is more likely to have TJ surgery because of the effort he exerts when pitching.
This is why he’s my top trade offering, two pitch, maxed effort pitcher who is average without top command, but has a bit of a hype on him….sell high on him.
Anyone think it would be a good move to offer the Dbacks some low level prospect and take on some of Jordan Montgomerys salary in a trade? Seems they want him gone. Doubt bobo wants to take on any $ though.
I proposed this the other day :), so am a fan of the idea. I'm afraid our FO will feel that we're set in terms of starters with Skenes, Keller, Jones, Ortiz, Falter, Chandler, Oviedo, and Harrington. While that's an impressive list, I think every time we felt that we were set in the past, something went wrong.
Also, Montgomery was my "dream" signing for last year, and I won't let one really bad year completely change my opinion of his potential value. And I'd like another lefty, especially since I'm not completely sold on Falter.
Totally agree. It's the pirate fan in us to think of how shit won't work out. Plus he is a former Cock. It would excite me more that the two schlubs they scooped up last year.
That would be great. What would Nola offer for the package? How often do you get down right sloppy at a crawfish boil? Tis the season in SC for oyster roasts. Thanksgiving kicks it off my family in Charleston.
Without knowing exactly what they'd want in return, I'd be willing to offer one of the second tier starters (Ash, Burrows, or Harrington) for Montgomery and Lawlar, while also taking the whole contract. I'm not sure how desperate they are to offload the salary (and likely disgruntled player at this point), but I'd try to get Adrian Del Castillo in the return to. Add another lower tiered prospect if needed.
As for the boils, it's currently out of season. That's more early-mid spring time, but even so, I've never gotten to in to eating crawfish.
Another reason I continue to apparently be much more optimistic than my fellow BoD brethren.
Looks to me like a pretty easy argument can be made - from old school stats like blown saves to the new win probability metrics - that the '24 pen drastically underperformed their talent *and* it seems pretty clear that better talent is on the way.
The '25 club could pick up 3-5 wins without even going full Shark Tank just by not having David Bednar melting into a puddle over and over.
I agree with that sentiment in general. But in the overall scheme that still may not be enough if the offense doesn't also tick up. Also why, as it was last season, bullpen is the least of my concern.
For sure. That's treading into the yearly "IF this happens..." waters. Luis Peralta aside, it's why I hated the Beeks trade so much. They have a good deal of big stuff guys, just ride or die with them. Going to have even more next season, that they can just carousel up and down from Indy (albeit LH isn't as strong, cause, well, Peralta...).
I'm fully on board with you that, give me AT LEAST two worth a dookie bats, and I like their chances. But until they do, it's just the same "if" blueprint being run out.
Good to think about, but it is the height of trading season, and Ashcraft could be a solid SP trade piece to teams in need (there are many), with guys like Ortiz, Oviedo, Falter, Burrows, and Harrington close behind, and just one or two could bring a young power hitter to the Pirates. They are nice to see on our roster - strong developmental success stories, but we cannot keep them all, and it is almost at that "kept too long" point.
I think we should keep both Ashcraft and Burrows for depth and/or multi-inning relievers.
As for trading SP, I’m all for it at a higher level. Anyone not named Skenes should be available for the right price. I’m in favor of trading a current ML SP (Ortiz, Jones, or Keller) to bring in the middle of the order power bat this team so desperately needs.
I don’t expect it to happen, just as I don’t expect them to sign Alonso to a multi-year deal with an opt out, even though they should.
The value of pitchers who have proven themselves at the MLB level is much higher than prospects. Ortiz has significant value and could be moved for a serious hitting prospect at a position of need. Ortiz is their most valuable trade piece whom they could move or would want to move (obviously they are not moving Skenes or Bart, which would be the only 2 who have more value than Ortiz).
He put up numbers not far removed from William Contreras: 120 OPS+ vs. 129 OPS+ and 121 wRC+ vs. 131 wRC+. Fangraphs didn't like his defense, but Baseball Reference is not as hard on him. Even Fangraphs though has him as roughly a net 0.0 defensive WAR for his career. Defensive stats in small samples can be very misleading.
If his defense really bothers you, you can always move him to 1B. If he keeps hitting like he did, the bat plays there. 1 more year of pre-arbitration. Bart has a lot of value.
That said, Jones may have more value than Ortiz, but as per NMR's comments above, some many be a little shy with Jones, because of the perception of injury risk.
Kinda late chiming in here, but I saw a lot of Curtis and he always seemed very sharp for two innings and then hit a wall. So I checked the splits and, yep, he really hits a wall in his third inning.
So several possibilities. Given the injury history it’s very possible he just needs time to build up and get healthy. Murph mentioned he doesn’t fully have the feeling back in his hand. He LOOKS like a potential starter. Or, he’s a 1-2 inning guy, maybe a really good one.
There are some guys here I see as relievers, if anything, down the road—Dotel, Jimenez, Massey. Curtis is less clear. Reed probably, too, although it’s maybe more 60/40 toward starter in his case.
Ashcraft, Burrows and Barco scream “Earl Weaver.” Harrington, with his command, should just start if he stays on track. My feeling on Diamond is, Meh.
Bubba is in his own category. Once it looks like he can pitch to ML hitters, just roll with him.
The key question is, What would Earl Weaver do?
OT, but I just saw where the Yankees will get $15MM from the Rays for use of their spring training/low A field in Tampa this season. This makes sense but still, the Rays paying the Yankees that amount just _feels_ wrong.
Here's one to chew on.
If 2025 looks like everything after April 2024 for Jared Jones, do you try to get six healthy years AND solve the closer role for another four?
Hes probably my top arm to trade (fuck would it hurt) but for a real impact bat or two. His value has to be sky high but his risk vs value right now is extreme. Hurts to type but executing that move well might get us to the postseason imo
Are you saying you believe Jones is a TJ candidate if he remains a SP?
I don’t know if there’s anyway to tell who will breakdown and who won’t. But the eye test says Jones is more likely to have TJ surgery because of the effort he exerts when pitching.
How many 6' high effort starters sitting in the upper 90s have made it six years healthy?
I can't think of many, if at all.
Probability of breaking has to be better than a coin flip.
This is why he’s my top trade offering, two pitch, maxed effort pitcher who is average without top command, but has a bit of a hype on him….sell high on him.
Dylan Cease?
Rich Harden, paragon of health.
I’ve always loved Jones, but we have to open to all possibilities so: Do you sell high for a great bat, for this reason?
Might be too soon, but, yes
Anyone think it would be a good move to offer the Dbacks some low level prospect and take on some of Jordan Montgomerys salary in a trade? Seems they want him gone. Doubt bobo wants to take on any $ though.
I proposed this the other day :), so am a fan of the idea. I'm afraid our FO will feel that we're set in terms of starters with Skenes, Keller, Jones, Ortiz, Falter, Chandler, Oviedo, and Harrington. While that's an impressive list, I think every time we felt that we were set in the past, something went wrong.
Also, Montgomery was my "dream" signing for last year, and I won't let one really bad year completely change my opinion of his potential value. And I'd like another lefty, especially since I'm not completely sold on Falter.
Totally agree. It's the pirate fan in us to think of how shit won't work out. Plus he is a former Cock. It would excite me more that the two schlubs they scooped up last year.
I want them to get Montgomery and take on the whole salary for the small price of Diamondbacks including Lawlar lol
That would be great. What would Nola offer for the package? How often do you get down right sloppy at a crawfish boil? Tis the season in SC for oyster roasts. Thanksgiving kicks it off my family in Charleston.
Without knowing exactly what they'd want in return, I'd be willing to offer one of the second tier starters (Ash, Burrows, or Harrington) for Montgomery and Lawlar, while also taking the whole contract. I'm not sure how desperate they are to offload the salary (and likely disgruntled player at this point), but I'd try to get Adrian Del Castillo in the return to. Add another lower tiered prospect if needed.
As for the boils, it's currently out of season. That's more early-mid spring time, but even so, I've never gotten to in to eating crawfish.
I think you could add Oviedo to the list as well. Coming off TJ surgery it is unlikely that he would be able to be a starter for the full season.
Between Oviedo, Burrows, Ortiz, and Ashcraft, Pirates have the swing starter/long man out of the pen role covered.
Another reason I continue to apparently be much more optimistic than my fellow BoD brethren.
Looks to me like a pretty easy argument can be made - from old school stats like blown saves to the new win probability metrics - that the '24 pen drastically underperformed their talent *and* it seems pretty clear that better talent is on the way.
The '25 club could pick up 3-5 wins without even going full Shark Tank just by not having David Bednar melting into a puddle over and over.
I agree with that sentiment in general. But in the overall scheme that still may not be enough if the offense doesn't also tick up. Also why, as it was last season, bullpen is the least of my concern.
Oh that alone certainly won't make 'em a playoff club, but it has them in a better position now than a year ago this time, IMO
For sure. That's treading into the yearly "IF this happens..." waters. Luis Peralta aside, it's why I hated the Beeks trade so much. They have a good deal of big stuff guys, just ride or die with them. Going to have even more next season, that they can just carousel up and down from Indy (albeit LH isn't as strong, cause, well, Peralta...).
I'm fully on board with you that, give me AT LEAST two worth a dookie bats, and I like their chances. But until they do, it's just the same "if" blueprint being run out.
This
I still think we should make a big move there for Duran, D Williams or Clay Holmes
and/or run it back with Aroldis, at least.
Good to think about, but it is the height of trading season, and Ashcraft could be a solid SP trade piece to teams in need (there are many), with guys like Ortiz, Oviedo, Falter, Burrows, and Harrington close behind, and just one or two could bring a young power hitter to the Pirates. They are nice to see on our roster - strong developmental success stories, but we cannot keep them all, and it is almost at that "kept too long" point.
I think we should keep both Ashcraft and Burrows for depth and/or multi-inning relievers.
As for trading SP, I’m all for it at a higher level. Anyone not named Skenes should be available for the right price. I’m in favor of trading a current ML SP (Ortiz, Jones, or Keller) to bring in the middle of the order power bat this team so desperately needs.
I don’t expect it to happen, just as I don’t expect them to sign Alonso to a multi-year deal with an opt out, even though they should.
The value of pitchers who have proven themselves at the MLB level is much higher than prospects. Ortiz has significant value and could be moved for a serious hitting prospect at a position of need. Ortiz is their most valuable trade piece whom they could move or would want to move (obviously they are not moving Skenes or Bart, which would be the only 2 who have more value than Ortiz).
Bart has more value than Ortiz? I know there aren’t many Catchers who can actually hit, but still…
He put up numbers not far removed from William Contreras: 120 OPS+ vs. 129 OPS+ and 121 wRC+ vs. 131 wRC+. Fangraphs didn't like his defense, but Baseball Reference is not as hard on him. Even Fangraphs though has him as roughly a net 0.0 defensive WAR for his career. Defensive stats in small samples can be very misleading.
If his defense really bothers you, you can always move him to 1B. If he keeps hitting like he did, the bat plays there. 1 more year of pre-arbitration. Bart has a lot of value.
That said, Jones may have more value than Ortiz, but as per NMR's comments above, some many be a little shy with Jones, because of the perception of injury risk.