Anyone else a bit disappointed Sanford didn't get the same nudge they gave Griffin? Honestly expected the former would be more prepared to advance than the latter.
Was also hoping to see Matoma up to start the season.
I am fine with Sanford starting off where he is. Apparently his defense is top notch but his bat is questionable. Might as well let him work on that in the rookie league. If he figures out the hitting side of the equation he can move quickly through the system after that.
Hard to understand why Richard Ramirez is not on the Bradenton Roster. He played satisfactory 1B, was a VG Catcher with a 47% CS Rate, and hit for 838 OPS at FCL. Looks like we have to find a place for two Catchers we drafted late in 2024 in Rounds 10 and 12. Ramirez is 19, Berg will be in his age 24 season and Janik is probably heading into his age 22 season. Ramirez earned his place at A!
Have any of you cared to check how many other teams have moved complex league hitters who struck out a third of the time up to full season ball immediately beginning the following year?
Just for the hell of it, I checked the 2023 FCL for guys who struck out a third of the time. Of the first four I found, one was released and three were promoted. Don’t know a good way to sort on that and ran out of patience after that.
The Pirates are promoting position players VERY slowly. In a sense, it's understandable because they've done a terrible job with hitters. But it still makes no sense if you focus on the whole point of the farm system, which is to develop talent for the majors.
If you promote a guy too early, maybe he flops, but over the course of a whole season, if a hitter can't adjust to the next higher level, I tend to think he wasn't going far anyway. To take one example, Hudson Head was at Greensboro for three years. His OPS actually went down a little each year, so it's awfully hard to claim that he needed the time to get MORE ready for AA. Now, he's in AA, but if he makes progress, so what? He'll be a FA after the season. What would have been the downside of moving him up earlier, even if he had a terrible time in AA?
Most of the position players at Greensboro and Bradenton are examples of this approach to one extent or another. All you have to do is look at all the guys stalled in AA, or AAA (hello Matt Gorski), to see that this approach is doing nothing whatsoever to benefit the Pirates.
But the FO's approach DOES risk blocking a guy like RRamirez. Now he's stuck behind Axiel Plaz, who's repeating low A, and two college catchers from last year's draft. Under NH, college draftees typically went to high A for their first full season, but with this FO some of them don't even open at low A. If Derek Berg was overwhelmed at Greensboro, it's a good bet that he's just not a prospect. Meanwhile, Ramirez, who so far appears to BE a prospect, is repeating rookie ball instead of taking on the challenge of full season ball.
Basically, imo this FO is much more concerned about optimizing minor league performance than about finding major league talent. The two absolutely are not the same thing.
Totally agree. And look at it from the player perspective: how would you like to be Hudson Head —- one time high profile, high bonus prospect —- and told that you’re spending another season in Greensboro? OK, it’s on him to produce, but at the same time challenging him might have stimulated a higher level of performance.
You’ve focused on Richard Ramirez. I feel the same way about Severino and YDLS. Time to challenge them and help them work through the challenges.
Bill James researched this ages ago for some of the original Baseball Abstracts. He found two things, which I believe still largely hold:
1) Any position player with real all-star upside is in the majors by 22 or 23 at the absolute latest (i.e., 24 or 25 is not young for a rookie);
2) Peak performance is 26-28, not 28-30 (or even older), which was the assumption for decades.
The age curve is a little more forgiving for pitchers, but obviously what Skenes is doing at age 22 is phenomenal.
Basically to build a strong foundation the idea is (of course) first to find players with high floors and/or high ceilings (preferably both) and move them up, challenging them at each level. At some point, it’s like tenure or becoming partner in a law firm —- it’s up or out.
At least they put Griffin in the FCL. I was really afraid they were going to start him in the complex.
Thank you for the reminder of Bill James. Some successful Pirate Position players with a future who were in MLB by ages 22-24 as Rookies were - Oneil Cruz, 23; Bryan Reynolds, 24; Ke'Bryan Hayes 23/24; Andrew McCutchen 23; Starling Marte 23;
Not sure BC is in that same mindset as Bill James, but two examples at 2B tell a different story. Our 1-7 of 2020, Nick Gonzales did not hit MLB until age 24 and only for a very brief and unsuccessful period of time at the end of 2023. Back at age 25 in 2024 he played up and down and ended with a .709 OPS in about 350 AB. Termarr Johnson was our 1-4 in 2022 and moved quickly through the system making it to AA last year as a 20 year old. As such, a very good possibility to make it to MLB by age 22.
Paul Skenes our 1-1 in 2023 was a leader of our MLB Rotation in 2024 as a 22 year old. Bubba Chandler was a 3rd Round pick in 2021, but has moved through the system aggressively and will be in MLB as a 22 year old, not turning 23 until mid-Sep, 2025.
Doesn't it seem like they *do* move their priority bats quickly, though?
They started Gonzales in high-A and had him in the show two years later.
Hank needs no explanation.
Termarr was in AA as a teenager.
Bae made his debut by 22.
Endy, as a catcher!, was in the league by 22.
Even Hudson Head got the push to high-A after striking out over 30% of the time in his age-20 season. They slowed his progress when he struck out even more there, which, I mean, what are we really arguing about at that point.
You *really*, truly, are telling us they've made some grave developmental error by not shoving him up to AA where he'd magically master better pitching after failing to hit worse?
I take your points. On Head, I guess I’m revealing my frustration that he proved to be another failed prospect. I thought he was a good get at the time of the Musgrove trade. Otherwise, as I’ve written, the Pirates are in desperate of one of their high ceiling guys to explode. So returning Severino to Bradenton, for example, is a big disappointment.
Yeah, I look at an ultra-incompetent GM like Birdbrain and one of the things that stands out is complete ignorance of the age curve. He's scared to try hitters at an optimum point (Cook right now being an example), and instead focuses exclusively on bringing in hitters who are easily into the downside of their careers, apparently with the idea that maybe Tommy Pham or Adam Frazier will miraculously flash back to 2019.
The Pham thing is the ultimate in GM malpractice. I’ve been wasting time looking into this. His last season over 1.0 WAR was 2021 and his one excellent season was eight years ago. Giving him $4.5 million and batting him lead off, cleanup, or 5th is insanity. And they won’t cut him because of the size of the investment.
Nick Solak line drive home run in the second. DJ Stewart and Matt Gorski homers in deep center in the third. I like all 3 of those guys and would find them all serviceable in a reserve role in Pittsburgh.
Nick York looks like a major league starter as a hitter right now, but maybe a step slow in the field.
Well, Bubba loaded the bases with no out in the 3rd, then fanned the next two. Drake Fellows got a popup to end it.
So, upside and downside in a microcosm. I saw this way back in rookie ball. He’d overthrow for 2-3 batters, then gather himself and just blow people away. I guess that even works in AAA. In MLB, I dunno.
-Henry Davis another good throw to nail the runner at second. I am a big fan of the catching coach Jordan Camadena.
-Nick York can hit. A double in the first fun to watch.
-My good hustle play goes to the big guy DJ Stewart. Routine ground ball to second. Stewart hustled out of the box. The second baseman bobbled it , then hurried his throw and Stewart was safe. It never would have happened if he Rowdied it out of the box.
Bae optioned.
Abrahan Gutierrez to Indy. Not sure whether that necessarily means Delay got claimed or won't accept assignment.
Well, I guess it did. Delay to Atlanta for Bob's favorite player.
Cash has always been there for Bob.
Ben wanted to platoon cash with bonds, but Bob put his foot down.
I don’t put much stock in that…
reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the league for stealing from the pirates for years.
If you want him back in sure he'll be back in waivers before too long.
Anyone else a bit disappointed Sanford didn't get the same nudge they gave Griffin? Honestly expected the former would be more prepared to advance than the latter.
Was also hoping to see Matoma up to start the season.
I am fine with Sanford starting off where he is. Apparently his defense is top notch but his bat is questionable. Might as well let him work on that in the rookie league. If he figures out the hitting side of the equation he can move quickly through the system after that.
Ideally, Severino and/or YDLS earn promotions pretty quickly and trigger more moves from below.
I’m disappointed the most about Matoma and Rich Ramirez.
Hard to understand why Richard Ramirez is not on the Bradenton Roster. He played satisfactory 1B, was a VG Catcher with a 47% CS Rate, and hit for 838 OPS at FCL. Looks like we have to find a place for two Catchers we drafted late in 2024 in Rounds 10 and 12. Ramirez is 19, Berg will be in his age 24 season and Janik is probably heading into his age 22 season. Ramirez earned his place at A!
Have any of you cared to check how many other teams have moved complex league hitters who struck out a third of the time up to full season ball immediately beginning the following year?
Do you want to guess the answer? I bet you can!
Just for the hell of it, I checked the 2023 FCL for guys who struck out a third of the time. Of the first four I found, one was released and three were promoted. Don’t know a good way to sort on that and ran out of patience after that.
The Pirates are promoting position players VERY slowly. In a sense, it's understandable because they've done a terrible job with hitters. But it still makes no sense if you focus on the whole point of the farm system, which is to develop talent for the majors.
If you promote a guy too early, maybe he flops, but over the course of a whole season, if a hitter can't adjust to the next higher level, I tend to think he wasn't going far anyway. To take one example, Hudson Head was at Greensboro for three years. His OPS actually went down a little each year, so it's awfully hard to claim that he needed the time to get MORE ready for AA. Now, he's in AA, but if he makes progress, so what? He'll be a FA after the season. What would have been the downside of moving him up earlier, even if he had a terrible time in AA?
Most of the position players at Greensboro and Bradenton are examples of this approach to one extent or another. All you have to do is look at all the guys stalled in AA, or AAA (hello Matt Gorski), to see that this approach is doing nothing whatsoever to benefit the Pirates.
But the FO's approach DOES risk blocking a guy like RRamirez. Now he's stuck behind Axiel Plaz, who's repeating low A, and two college catchers from last year's draft. Under NH, college draftees typically went to high A for their first full season, but with this FO some of them don't even open at low A. If Derek Berg was overwhelmed at Greensboro, it's a good bet that he's just not a prospect. Meanwhile, Ramirez, who so far appears to BE a prospect, is repeating rookie ball instead of taking on the challenge of full season ball.
Basically, imo this FO is much more concerned about optimizing minor league performance than about finding major league talent. The two absolutely are not the same thing.
Totally agree. And look at it from the player perspective: how would you like to be Hudson Head —- one time high profile, high bonus prospect —- and told that you’re spending another season in Greensboro? OK, it’s on him to produce, but at the same time challenging him might have stimulated a higher level of performance.
You’ve focused on Richard Ramirez. I feel the same way about Severino and YDLS. Time to challenge them and help them work through the challenges.
Bill James researched this ages ago for some of the original Baseball Abstracts. He found two things, which I believe still largely hold:
1) Any position player with real all-star upside is in the majors by 22 or 23 at the absolute latest (i.e., 24 or 25 is not young for a rookie);
2) Peak performance is 26-28, not 28-30 (or even older), which was the assumption for decades.
The age curve is a little more forgiving for pitchers, but obviously what Skenes is doing at age 22 is phenomenal.
Basically to build a strong foundation the idea is (of course) first to find players with high floors and/or high ceilings (preferably both) and move them up, challenging them at each level. At some point, it’s like tenure or becoming partner in a law firm —- it’s up or out.
At least they put Griffin in the FCL. I was really afraid they were going to start him in the complex.
Thank you for the reminder of Bill James. Some successful Pirate Position players with a future who were in MLB by ages 22-24 as Rookies were - Oneil Cruz, 23; Bryan Reynolds, 24; Ke'Bryan Hayes 23/24; Andrew McCutchen 23; Starling Marte 23;
Not sure BC is in that same mindset as Bill James, but two examples at 2B tell a different story. Our 1-7 of 2020, Nick Gonzales did not hit MLB until age 24 and only for a very brief and unsuccessful period of time at the end of 2023. Back at age 25 in 2024 he played up and down and ended with a .709 OPS in about 350 AB. Termarr Johnson was our 1-4 in 2022 and moved quickly through the system making it to AA last year as a 20 year old. As such, a very good possibility to make it to MLB by age 22.
Paul Skenes our 1-1 in 2023 was a leader of our MLB Rotation in 2024 as a 22 year old. Bubba Chandler was a 3rd Round pick in 2021, but has moved through the system aggressively and will be in MLB as a 22 year old, not turning 23 until mid-Sep, 2025.
Doesn't it seem like they *do* move their priority bats quickly, though?
They started Gonzales in high-A and had him in the show two years later.
Hank needs no explanation.
Termarr was in AA as a teenager.
Bae made his debut by 22.
Endy, as a catcher!, was in the league by 22.
Even Hudson Head got the push to high-A after striking out over 30% of the time in his age-20 season. They slowed his progress when he struck out even more there, which, I mean, what are we really arguing about at that point.
You *really*, truly, are telling us they've made some grave developmental error by not shoving him up to AA where he'd magically master better pitching after failing to hit worse?
I take your points. On Head, I guess I’m revealing my frustration that he proved to be another failed prospect. I thought he was a good get at the time of the Musgrove trade. Otherwise, as I’ve written, the Pirates are in desperate of one of their high ceiling guys to explode. So returning Severino to Bradenton, for example, is a big disappointment.
Haha, of course watch now we find out RRam is going to Greensboro.
Would happily accept being wrong on this.
Yeah, I look at an ultra-incompetent GM like Birdbrain and one of the things that stands out is complete ignorance of the age curve. He's scared to try hitters at an optimum point (Cook right now being an example), and instead focuses exclusively on bringing in hitters who are easily into the downside of their careers, apparently with the idea that maybe Tommy Pham or Adam Frazier will miraculously flash back to 2019.
The Pham thing is the ultimate in GM malpractice. I’ve been wasting time looking into this. His last season over 1.0 WAR was 2021 and his one excellent season was eight years ago. Giving him $4.5 million and batting him lead off, cleanup, or 5th is insanity. And they won’t cut him because of the size of the investment.
Ah good point about who will already be on the dirt up the middle, plus reps for Griffin. Makes sense.
Hopefully both will get a quick call up to Bradenton.
I still feel Sanfords bat will determine what glove Griffin will be using.
Nick Solak line drive home run in the second. DJ Stewart and Matt Gorski homers in deep center in the third. I like all 3 of those guys and would find them all serviceable in a reserve role in Pittsburgh.
Nick York looks like a major league starter as a hitter right now, but maybe a step slow in the field.
It’s a shame we don’t have a need at 1B or 2B where he could play……
Nick York hits his third double today. 2 in game 1 and 1 in game 2.
Well, Bubba loaded the bases with no out in the 3rd, then fanned the next two. Drake Fellows got a popup to end it.
So, upside and downside in a microcosm. I saw this way back in rookie ball. He’d overthrow for 2-3 batters, then gather himself and just blow people away. I guess that even works in AAA. In MLB, I dunno.
Indy lineup, btw, is looking more like expected.
Just watched the first inning of the Indy game.
-Henry Davis another good throw to nail the runner at second. I am a big fan of the catching coach Jordan Camadena.
-Nick York can hit. A double in the first fun to watch.
-My good hustle play goes to the big guy DJ Stewart. Routine ground ball to second. Stewart hustled out of the box. The second baseman bobbled it , then hurried his throw and Stewart was safe. It never would have happened if he Rowdied it out of the box.
Chandler looked very good in the second.
Control is fading in the 3rd.
Maybe it’s me, but Griffin seems to be warming Wilbur’s cold, cast-iron, prospect heart.
Has anyone ever heard about this kid, uhh, something Griffin? Conner, Connor, Conair, or something?
I thought conan was that TV host guy
Griffin, the cartoon character family?
You talkin throwing a hot dog down a hallway? Stewie?
Riiiigght!!! Peter!!! That's gotta be it.