I saw somewhere that Duncan was a top 100 recruit coming out of HS. He may be aiming to get himself taken earlier with a good year at TN. Then again, if he does, he'll be getting drafted as a senior which kills his leverage.
I wonder if the new NCAA 5 in 5 rule (players get 5 years to complete up to 5 seasons of play) will change that? Fourth year seniors will be eligible to come back for one more year. It almost certainly pushes the loss of all leverage out to the 5th year.
Spencer Evans at 11 got my attention as LSU commit. Anyone who's signed and likely recruited by LSU is a buy for me. But yeah, that 40 on control needs some work ha ha.
Yes think it would take seven figures for Evans. Although the proposed age 21 rule by owners might give him pause about waiting so long. His profile of tall LH with a big FB would be worth the cost. Edit: His 19th bday is today July 13. Ben make the kid a big offer on his bday!
I spent the entire spring banging the drum for Curiel, so when he was drafted fifth overall—the same spot I would have drafted him if I were in control of every pick—I really liked the pick. Other players might have more upside, but Curiel is a proven pure hitter with one of the most advanced offensive approaches in the class. And he can really play defense in center field, too.
Draft class reaction: This might be my favorite draft of the year, as 10 of the Pirates’ first 11 picks are BA 500 members—including eight players who rank in the top 150 for what is a no-nonsense, straight-up talent draft to me.
Our first 11 picks cover rounds 1-10. There were 288 guys selected up through the point we took Gibson. It doesn't seem like much of an accomplishment that our picks would all be among BA 500 members.
A cautionary note about late-round, overslot prep guys — the Pirates signed two last year, McLane Moody and Carter Gwost. They’ve had a horrific time in the FCL. (Gwost is out, probably for the year, with a knee injury.) I think a lot of these guys end up in round 13 instead of 3 because they’re considered riskier.
The lower profile guys, agree. But the Pirates drafted Trea Turner and Walker Beuhler, among others, in the late rounds (higher profile) and they did just fine (with others unfortunately).
Tennessee might have a competitive dollar amount offer, if not better. I'm assuming the 2 prep pitchers are a priority with the extra $ available if there is any.
That's the thing now with so much NIL money in college. I'm not sure how much is out there for college baseball, but I would guess there will be scenarios where high-school kids will get offered more nil money than slot money. Drafting HS kids is going to be trickier now than before.
$150,000 for rounds 11-20 anything more comes from left over pool space from the first 10 rounds of signed players. They can also use up to 5% overage on slot values of signed player from the first 10 rounds. If a player doesn't sign from the first 10 rounds, that money and overage space is gone.
Example from last year. Hernandez signed for around $300,000 under slot. When Cervantes didn't sign they lost the nearly $2 million in slot value and the added 5% that came with it around $100,000. The pirates used the $300,000 plus savings from other first 10 round picks to sign Gwost and Moody, they didn't use any of the 5% overage allowance that comes with a tax (I think it comes with a dollar for dollar tax, $1 over the slot, $1 dollar tax), if you go over the 5% the team loses a draft pick.)
Any savings on slot values from rounds 1-10 and the 5% overage on the bonus pool for signed player slots from 1-10 can all be spent on any player.
If they sign all of the 1-10 players, their 5% allowed overage = $811,665 by my calculation. There's a 75% tax on that spend. We'll see if Sideshow Bob wants to go for any of that.
It's not only that. The teams that do not go over slot split up the taxed money from the teams that do. When the Pirates do not go over slot, they not only save the lost tax money, they also collect the lost extra money. I think it is usually $1-2 million.
They are using his IG post, which is the same thing Braylon Bishop did in 2021. Still ended up signing. Not saying this is going to be the case, but there is at least precedent.
Just looking at one article claiming to know the NIL payments for the top NIL earners, it lists the top 4 making $850k, $500k, $400k, and $350k. That's in all of college baseball. I have no idea how accurate that "info" is, but I suspect those numbers are pretty close to reality. I doubt teams have the budgets to pay even the best incoming frosh $1M in NIL. This isn't football or basketball despite recent growth in popularity.
I'm sure they did, just probably didn't seem encouraged about signing him, ended up with some $ they thought they could at least throw against the wall, see if it sticks.
Quick glance, I think I like day 2 more than day 1. Now can they sign some of these kids. In retrospect, probably would have been nice to keep that $2.9m at 34.
You know what's scary is that the new collective bargaining negotiations involve the ability to trade 1st round picks......I have no trust in BC or Bob Nutting to handle such a situation. BC will trade it for a bunch of nothing or Bob will tell BC to trade it to cut costs.
I could see B🤡n panic-trading a 1st round pick for a AAAA lhrp with a career AAA ERA of 5. And of course saving B🤡b the big bonus money in the process.
Once in awhile I go and catch one of their games and they're well played, enjoyable games to watch. Their pitching coach is former Pirate Don Robinson. They've had two other pitchers drafted recently, one in the 5th round by Boston and he was part of the Sonny Gray trade to the Cardinals. The Orioles drafted another and traded him to Tampa in the Shane Baz trade.
I'm a bit concerned that there are so many pitchers added but no catchers. Does the system have enough warm bodies at catcher to catch all these guys in the low minors?
Highly doubt it happens but if the MLB proposal on the draft, no high schoolers and only 10 rounds, would start in 2027. Which might be a scare practice for this years class.
I’m torn on this idea. If they made it like football where you had to go to school for certain periods of time first, you generally get more polished players. Though with a lower potential upside vs a HS kid. On the other hand, a freshman with things he needs to work on may be better off in Low A than LSU. He goes to LSU he sits for 2 years. In Low-A he throws every 5 days or is in the lineup 6 times a week. On the other other hand, college coaches are in it to win it, not to develop players. They abuse the arms. I can’t remember seeing so many guys in this draft with previous TJ surgeries. Ultimately I think they should keep it as is, make it 10 rounds if MLB puts money into Indy ball, and let development of the fringe guys happen there. Increase round 1-10 money and allow teams to go after more HS upside without worrying they won’t have enough cash to get them signed.
But I think with baseball, they had just until the next year's draft to sign the kid. Hockey gives until the kid is draft eligible from college (Jr year?) for the team selecting the player from HS/juniors to sign. I might be wrong.
Our 19th round guy is a junior from Wright State but is set to transfer to Tennessee. I wonder if that makes him harder to sign since he can go back and play in the SEC.
Andrew Duncan told a Teneessee website that he wasn't going to sign
I saw somewhere that Duncan was a top 100 recruit coming out of HS. He may be aiming to get himself taken earlier with a good year at TN. Then again, if he does, he'll be getting drafted as a senior which kills his leverage.
I wonder if the new NCAA 5 in 5 rule (players get 5 years to complete up to 5 seasons of play) will change that? Fourth year seniors will be eligible to come back for one more year. It almost certainly pushes the loss of all leverage out to the 5th year.
oh nooooo. anyways
Prolly already discussed, but 14 of 21 picks are pitchers. Thinking that Ben has seen the low minors walk-a-thons and wanted to address it.
Good amount have very low walk rates too, so makes sense
Spencer Evans at 11 got my attention as LSU commit. Anyone who's signed and likely recruited by LSU is a buy for me. But yeah, that 40 on control needs some work ha ha.
I assume he'll not sign.
Probably depends on Phelps and Giles? I could see both going over slot, although Phelps obviously has less leverage.
Somewhat interesting HS arms like Evans rarely go for less than a mil. The better ones start at 2.
Yes think it would take seven figures for Evans. Although the proposed age 21 rule by owners might give him pause about waiting so long. His profile of tall LH with a big FB would be worth the cost. Edit: His 19th bday is today July 13. Ben make the kid a big offer on his bday!
Pittsburgh Pirates
Favorite pick: Derek Curiel, OF, LSU (Round 1, Pick 5)
I spent the entire spring banging the drum for Curiel, so when he was drafted fifth overall—the same spot I would have drafted him if I were in control of every pick—I really liked the pick. Other players might have more upside, but Curiel is a proven pure hitter with one of the most advanced offensive approaches in the class. And he can really play defense in center field, too.
Draft class reaction: This might be my favorite draft of the year, as 10 of the Pirates’ first 11 picks are BA 500 members—including eight players who rank in the top 150 for what is a no-nonsense, straight-up talent draft to me.
BA post
Our first 11 picks cover rounds 1-10. There were 288 guys selected up through the point we took Gibson. It doesn't seem like much of an accomplishment that our picks would all be among BA 500 members.
Interesting. I had the opposite reaction as an amateur draft analyst. We’ll see how this plays out.
A cautionary note about late-round, overslot prep guys — the Pirates signed two last year, McLane Moody and Carter Gwost. They’ve had a horrific time in the FCL. (Gwost is out, probably for the year, with a knee injury.) I think a lot of these guys end up in round 13 instead of 3 because they’re considered riskier.
The lower profile guys, agree. But the Pirates drafted Trea Turner and Walker Beuhler, among others, in the late rounds (higher profile) and they did just fine (with others unfortunately).
*signed* being the key word from Wilbur. the dudes who are DUDES almost never do.
Yeah
Washington went to same high school as Jeff Francoeur and Matt Olson.
Andrew Duncan going to Tennessee instead of signing with the pirates according to Volquest.
https://www.on3.com/teams/tennessee-volunteers/news/andrew-duncan-mlb-draft-tennessee-baseball-transfer
That’s probably true but that’s easier to say today than after contract negotiations.
Tennessee might have a competitive dollar amount offer, if not better. I'm assuming the 2 prep pitchers are a priority with the extra $ available if there is any.
That's the thing now with so much NIL money in college. I'm not sure how much is out there for college baseball, but I would guess there will be scenarios where high-school kids will get offered more nil money than slot money. Drafting HS kids is going to be trickier now than before.
So, please remind me what the rules are for money for picks 11-20. How high can they go for Malachi Washington, for example?
MLB Pipeline covered Day 2 by making a list of intriguing prospects. The Pirates only had three: Tre Phelps, Grant Govel, and Washington.
$150,000 for rounds 11-20 anything more comes from left over pool space from the first 10 rounds of signed players. They can also use up to 5% overage on slot values of signed player from the first 10 rounds. If a player doesn't sign from the first 10 rounds, that money and overage space is gone.
Example from last year. Hernandez signed for around $300,000 under slot. When Cervantes didn't sign they lost the nearly $2 million in slot value and the added 5% that came with it around $100,000. The pirates used the $300,000 plus savings from other first 10 round picks to sign Gwost and Moody, they didn't use any of the 5% overage allowance that comes with a tax (I think it comes with a dollar for dollar tax, $1 over the slot, $1 dollar tax), if you go over the 5% the team loses a draft pick.)
Thanks!
Any savings on slot values from rounds 1-10 and the 5% overage on the bonus pool for signed player slots from 1-10 can all be spent on any player.
If they sign all of the 1-10 players, their 5% allowed overage = $811,665 by my calculation. There's a 75% tax on that spend. We'll see if Sideshow Bob wants to go for any of that.
It's not only that. The teams that do not go over slot split up the taxed money from the teams that do. When the Pirates do not go over slot, they not only save the lost tax money, they also collect the lost extra money. I think it is usually $1-2 million.
Bob will never agree to that.
Thanks!!
Beat me to it lol, your 75% tax is probably right.
Initial gut reaction is pretty bleh to this draft.
It doesn’t look like Malachi Washington is going to sign. Posted a story on IG of him wearing an LSU jersey saying ‘LEHH DOO ITTT’
And if my agent didn't advise me to say the same thing in his shoes, I'd be firing my agent. Let the negotiations begin!
He just confirmed that he's heading to Lsu according to Lsu's 247 site.
They are using his IG post, which is the same thing Braylon Bishop did in 2021. Still ended up signing. Not saying this is going to be the case, but there is at least precedent.
Thanks, just saw the article and assumed they talked to him.
IIRC, Bishop deleted his post pretty quickly. He felt dissed by his draft round. Probably someone told him about the overslot dynamic.
Yeah, and now is a bit different with NIL. Going to LSU, he's probably making more there anyways. So might as well go to school.
Just looking at one article claiming to know the NIL payments for the top NIL earners, it lists the top 4 making $850k, $500k, $400k, and $350k. That's in all of college baseball. I have no idea how accurate that "info" is, but I suspect those numbers are pretty close to reality. I doubt teams have the budgets to pay even the best incoming frosh $1M in NIL. This isn't football or basketball despite recent growth in popularity.
You’d think they’d have talked to him first.
At that point in the draft you have nothing to lose. Take a shot.
I'm sure they did, just probably didn't seem encouraged about signing him, ended up with some $ they thought they could at least throw against the wall, see if it sticks.
Negotiation tactics.
Braylon Bishop did the same thing I think
I forgot about that
Money talks
The Pirates have money?
Bob has lots of money under his bed mattress.
no surprise there
Quick glance, I think I like day 2 more than day 1. Now can they sign some of these kids. In retrospect, probably would have been nice to keep that $2.9m at 34.
Same thing I'm thinking. Even considering it looks like Washington isn’t going to sign
Getting rid of the 2.9M was probably the point.
You know what's scary is that the new collective bargaining negotiations involve the ability to trade 1st round picks......I have no trust in BC or Bob Nutting to handle such a situation. BC will trade it for a bunch of nothing or Bob will tell BC to trade it to cut costs.
I could see B🤡n panic-trading a 1st round pick for a AAAA lhrp with a career AAA ERA of 5. And of course saving B🤡b the big bonus money in the process.
Your mind is a dark place, Wilbur.
Bob Nutting is a dark place.
Someone just got picked from the hated Manatees. I miss playing the Manatees.
Once in awhile I go and catch one of their games and they're well played, enjoyable games to watch. Their pitching coach is former Pirate Don Robinson. They've had two other pitchers drafted recently, one in the 5th round by Boston and he was part of the Sonny Gray trade to the Cardinals. The Orioles drafted another and traded him to Tampa in the Shane Baz trade.
I can’t think of a more embarrassing loss than to a community college
By the royals. Now we need to hate the royals.
I'm a bit concerned that there are so many pitchers added but no catchers. Does the system have enough warm bodies at catcher to catch all these guys in the low minors?
C is about the only thing they have a lot of.
is washington another braylon bishop??
I had the same thought.
No he has some pedigree, an lsu committ.
bishop had pedigree....he was an early top 10 pick for that draft the year before
He was never as high as 120 by mlb. Was he? I thought he was in the high 200, low 300.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2021-mlb-mock-draft-way-too-early-top-10-picks/
BA had bishop going 10th overall
He was in the 90's leading into the draft by pipeline
Highly doubt it happens but if the MLB proposal on the draft, no high schoolers and only 10 rounds, would start in 2027. Which might be a scare practice for this years class.
I’m torn on this idea. If they made it like football where you had to go to school for certain periods of time first, you generally get more polished players. Though with a lower potential upside vs a HS kid. On the other hand, a freshman with things he needs to work on may be better off in Low A than LSU. He goes to LSU he sits for 2 years. In Low-A he throws every 5 days or is in the lineup 6 times a week. On the other other hand, college coaches are in it to win it, not to develop players. They abuse the arms. I can’t remember seeing so many guys in this draft with previous TJ surgeries. Ultimately I think they should keep it as is, make it 10 rounds if MLB puts money into Indy ball, and let development of the fringe guys happen there. Increase round 1-10 money and allow teams to go after more HS upside without worrying they won’t have enough cash to get them signed.
Maybe do it like hockey, where you draft a kid & he stays in juniors or goes to college & you retain his rights for some period.
It used to be like that with draft and follow. Don’t remember when or why it stopped
But I think with baseball, they had just until the next year's draft to sign the kid. Hockey gives until the kid is draft eligible from college (Jr year?) for the team selecting the player from HS/juniors to sign. I might be wrong.
Our 19th round guy is a junior from Wright State but is set to transfer to Tennessee. I wonder if that makes him harder to sign since he can go back and play in the SEC.
Interesting. No idea. Wonder if guys like that get any noteworthy NIL money?
The answer to the NIL money question at a program like Tn is yes
I got nothing on Duncan. Jr transfer probably signs. Maybe.
https://www.wbir.com/article/sports/college/vols/vols-baseball/wright-state-transfer-andrew-duncan-commits-to-tennessee-baseball/51-2fbc9457-6fb9-4fa9-9be2-fc23fc7a0b3a
Here's where I got it. Looks like Tennessee has a good number of transfers that are also draft eligible.