74 Comments

Ali Sanchez can be taken off the 40 man. It’s a tougher call now with Grandal out and you probably go with CSN first but I liked seeing them give Bins/Gutierrez real PT this Spring. One of them needs to step-up and be that MLB 3rd/4th emergency Catcher(which is Sanchez’s role).

Especially next year with Endy, Davis, and Delay you should let Bins or Gutierrez be that guy and get that opportunity if it presents itself.

That’s a long way off and a lot can happen, and Bins and Gutierrez haven’t exactly been the pillars of health, so I get signing Sanchez this year, but really when Grandal gets healthy, then there is no reason for Sanchez on the 40 man, even if he gets claimed, with Delay and Bins and Gutierrez. Davis, Grandal, Delay, Bins/Gutierrez should be fine. And again, next year, Endy/Davis, Delay and Bins/Gutierrez should also be fine.

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The infield is set with Hayes, Cruz, Peguero, Tellez/Joe, and Triolo as the Utility IF. Not sure if MAT is going to be anywhere near ready, and the last thing we need to do is get him out there too quickly and end up with a Hamstring issue. McKinney is the veteran, but my choice would be Celestino as the RH platoon with 'Ski in CF.

The Pirates have a lot of talent that could be tradeable. Of the two guys I started ST talking about as CF's - Ceddanne Rafaela and Everson Pereira (both 23), Rafaela looks like a lock to make the Red Sox, but Pereira did not hit as well and there is no room on the Yankee 26, so he will go back to AAA. Interesting note is that Celestino (25) was paid a bonus ($2.25 mil) from the Astro's that was around the same bonus paid to Pereira by the Yankees a few years later.

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McKinney deserves to go north or at least release him now to hook on with another team...Delay will go north for awhile as Grandal is not ready, and Williams will be the jack of all trades in the infield...

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Williams is going to have a bit of a problem with the hitting trade part.

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And, Williams was very important in '23 after the injury to Cruz, but with both Cruz and Peguero now very capable at the SS position, Williams could be available.

I agree they need to try to find a landing spot for Billy McKinney if other teams are interested, and this could also apply to Bae and/or NG. With Cruz, Peguero, and Triolo at MLB and TJ, Cheng, and Brannigan coming up fast, another team could have a better need for either at this time.

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FG releasing their positional rankings. Catcher, first and second have been released thus far. Bucs ranked 19th, 28th, and 29th at those three spots.

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28th for Tellez and Joe is overly generous IMO.

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I'll bet you $1 they finished the season with higher fWAR than 28th.

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Randolph and Mortimer Duke Stakes! This shit is serious.

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Mar 20Edited

You can count on one hand the number of Pirate fans who realize Joe and Santana combined to provide the 9th most valuable 1B production in the league last year.

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Jared Triolo.

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You thinking 31st?

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I was most surprised that they're ranking us as high as 19th at C--they seem to have more confidence in Davis than our FO had until recently.

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Mar 19Edited

The ranking is just a result of the Depth Charts projection (mix of ZIPS and Steamer, I believe) and there's just no rational manner of placing an accurate numeric projection on Davis' defense right now.

Keibert Ruiz, Logan O'hoppe, and Shea Langeliers all graded out substantially better as prospects and yet ended up some of the worst defenders at the position in the sport, which completely tanks their value. How much Davis has developed in the last six months or so will make or break him.

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I’d guess a lot of confidence in Hank’s bat

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They did note that there's a decent chance that one of the guys grabs hold of the 2B job and exceeds their projections, which I certainly see as a decent possibility

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Yep, the write up was far better than the ordinal ranking. In short, they think it’s hard to see ALL of Peggy/Triolo/Gonzo flopping. Although I guess we probably thought the same with Ro/Ortiz/Quinn on the mound last year.

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And yet any one of these guys playing up to their prospect grade jumps the club a full...four spots.

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Into the mid 20’s! Walking in tall cotton…

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If anyone were to make it happen, I trust us to flop lol

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All make sense

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Look at this 1B list and tell me it makes any sense to dump a bunch of capital into the position...

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Draft Blake Burke with pick 37 and pray.

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make it so.

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Uhhh, I'm not sure? lol

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I agree with this roster, but will change my mind if Olivares has a good final week. But if he doesn't, having him get regular ABs in AAA seems best for him and the team. Palacios also seems to need regular ABs after missing so much time.

To open the spot for McKinney, they can either DFA Sanchez or, if they think Grandal's injury will keep him out until June, put him on the 60-day IL.

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I Dont see us risking losing someone by dropping a player from the 40 man to add mckinney when you have giys whom have already proven useful in the major leagues with palacios and olivares. Not saying he hasnt earned it, but it just isnt good business just to add a bench player when you have two legitimate major leaguers already. Send mckinney down unless he has an opt out, and let olivares start as a platoon with suwinski, its just logical.

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I think that at this point, the last few pitchers are far more undecided than last few hitters

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Thank you for this great breakdown! I do hope Mckinney makes the squad as he has undoubtedly earned it.

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The 4th outfielder has to be a lefty, the bench is all RH (except Grandal) and Cutch could in theory platoon with Suwinski.

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These guys who think Olivares is a good platoon fit with Suwinski are in for a surprise. If it's a soft-throwing lefty, Olivares will be fine, but against any lefty who can chuck it 93-94+, Olivares will be worse than Suwinski.

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You have been beating this drum all off-season, like some sort of KC Royals advocate. I'm just going to say it - you are completely full of shit.

Did he only face soft tossing lefties to get that 129 wRC+ when facing lefties?

I generally ignore your BS, but this one is just too much.

He's an ideal platoon mate for Jack.

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Well... Catch...you can look it up. Fangraphs has a table to show you how a player performed against different pitch types. Olivares... wFA (fastball runs above average) -7.3...; Olivares... wSL (slider runs above average) 8.6; Olivares wCU (4.0). He hits the slow stuff much better than he hits the heat. So, I am not full of BS. BTW... until 4 days ago, Suwinski played CF. Olivares was -10 DRS in LF in half a season? How do you think he would play in CF? He is awful in the field, and there is no way you could put him in CF at PNC? So... up until 4 days ago, how was he a platoon at all for Suwinski?

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But if I’m reading that pitch value track correctly, wasn’t Olivares better than average against heaters in 22? How much of that is predictive?

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I think it adds to the image of a guy whose swing is long and slow, so he struggles with velocity, but that long, slow swing does generate a lot of power. Also, he reads spin on breaking balls well and can really drive them. He has certainly shown that ability over his time in KC. He's certainly better than a AAAA player, but I would not want him starting every day.

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Taylor is CF

Suwinski and Olivares platoon in RF

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There was no Taylor until 4 days ago... so my criticism of Olivares was valid. Taylor changes the dynamics of the OF dramatically. Now you can put Olivares in RF... and watch him chase flyballs into the OF wall, crash into the wall... and watch the ball bounce around the OF until Taylor picks it up and throws it in.

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Thats almost physically impossible. And i wouldn't say he is a "good fit" he is the "only option" as a righty outfielder unless you want to put cutch out there occasionally and use someone else as a DH (which i think isn't a bad idea considering how awful olivares is as an outfielder anyways) or switch off with Connor Joe giving Telez or Jack a day off instead of a steady platoon with either. Honestly Telez isn't worth against lefties than Jack is, so it kinda makes sense.

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Olivares was a very strange acquisition. I would be perfectly happy if he were optioned to AAA and held there for depth. He is good against soft-tossers, lefty or righty, but his swing is late on anyone bringing heat. If you want a platoon for Suwinski, then use Joe. He was fine in that role last year and plays RF OK in PNC. If you must use Olivares, then give Taylor or Reynolds a day off against soft-tossers and let Olivares play to his strength: which is smashing hanging slow stuff.

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This is a very strange and redundant comment.

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If we bother to look at the Spring Training stats, Celestino would be the RH platoon with Suwinski in CF by a large margin, especially the defensive part.

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concur. Yas and/or Bae going to IL will allow for McKinney to be added to 40 man and 26 man. While Yes would probably enjoy playing in his hometown of Miami on opening day I think staying in Pirate city for a couple extra weeks vice cold Pittsburgh wouldn't kill him.

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nope- 15 day DL doesn't open a 40 man spot, only a 60 day does. Obviously Delay will just make the roster instead of Yaz going on the DL, and Bae was never making this team anyways.... this doesn't help McKinney 1 iota

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If falter and Sanchez don’t make the team they are out of options and off the 40 man so there’s two spots hopefully. You could then add McKinney and either Jones, Stratton or Honeywell to the 40 man depending on which direction they go.

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I think we will see two or three players begin the year on the IL for something very minor.

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correct, but this does nothing to help NRI just means someone on the 40 man gets to stay up

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Have Endy, Oviedo or Moreta been placed on the 60 day IL yet?

EDIT: Looks like they all were. My memory isn't what it used to be. lol

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It only helps if Bae goes on the 60 man DL. He is that seriously injured? It would be a way to add McKinney as I do think that(not on 40) can be an important factor. As good as McKinney has been this spring, he has a pretty decent history of major league / AAA production that does not support this current rate of production which to me does not make the McKinney over Palacios or others quite that clean. However players do make adjustments and improve at times and maybe he made one of those adjustments.

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McKinney sure looks better than his numbers have shown over the last 6 years. I hope he does well this year.

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If Triolo’s not a lock, I certainly don’t know what one is. He’s one of the best pure baseball players on this team and needs to be a regular in the lineup. Saying he plays many positions well shouldn’t mean he doesn’t have an every day spot somewhere. The choice to me shouldn’t be between Triolo and Perguero but between Perguero and the Tellez/Joe combo. Is the line up better with Tellez at first and Triolo at second or with Triolo at first and Perguero at second? Please, please do not play Connor Joe at first base except in an emergency. Personally, and I know I’m probably in the minority on this, I don’t see a viable role for Joe on this team.

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I think Tellez is going to be terrible both at the plate and in the field, and this will force the Pirates’ hands by mid-season. The problem is that they don’t have suitable lefty bat to replace him. Without Tellez there are only three lefties in the regular lineup: Reynolds, Suwinski, and Cruz. As for the bench, Bae is injured and I have no use for Palacios, who is hitless this spring. The roster construction is less than ideal.

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a lefty first base bat is very easy to get. at this moment you still have belt sitting unsigned for example. That being said, I don't see any reason for your opionion to be accurate. i think base expectations for him should be somewhere between 2022 and 2023 which would not be bad.

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when has the roster construction been anything other than less than ideal? I mean even the playoff team of 10 years ago had Barmes and barajas, two of the worst position players ever to wear the pirates jersey, and i'm including Khalifa and Junior Ortiz here

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ultimately, I believe the team is better off w Oneil Cruz nowhere near SS but playing 1B. In the long run, we are best with an infield of Hayes, Triolo, Peguero and Cruz, from 3B to 1B.

Triolo is a minor league Gold Glove, while Cruz is a defensive hazard playing SS

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Triolo cannot play shortstop- he's never played shortstop, why? he doesn't have the range or the arm for it. He does have the range and arm for 3rd and 2nd. Like it or not, Cruz is our shortstop, and he provides the most value there with his legs and his arm. He's just gotta grow into it, we have noone else.....which is what happens when you draft 300 2nd baseman

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That’s such a lazy take. He’s tall, put him at first. Cruz is crazy athletic, and while not the best fit at short, it makes zero sense to careen him all the way down the defensive spectrum to first.

Jared Triolo is easily the most overrated player on this board.

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Army, Cruz is unreliable at SS. You're right, he's tall and perfect for 1B!

Triolo wears a Gold Glove, and is a potential 300, from this early time in the bigs.

This ain't no rocket science

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Triolo struck out 30% of the time as a rookie without much power, indicating a lot of that performance was luck.

I like Triolo. He’s a good player and I think his versatility makes him a good bet to be a solid bench player, with an outside chance at being a starter. But .300 and a GG? Dude, you’re talking a potential MVP candidate. Stay realistic.

Again, Cruz can do far too much athletically to just stick him at first. It’s a waste.

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Arky......no. He had hamate surgery last year, he wasn't recovered until september fully. Ask anyone how long it takes to recover any power at all from that surgery.....ask Anthony, ask Tim Williams, hell again ask NMR, he can field this one

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No, Triolo didn’t have much power before hamate surgery. He’s not Newman, but the power is fairly modest. So let’s not blame the lack of power on hamate surgery.

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My gosh you’re right. The .440 BABIP combined with the anemic exit velocity he posted last year tells you what you need to know. Not saying he can’t be a good ball player, but they are going to have to really try to squeeze every last drop of value out of that bat. And that bat probably never plays at first.

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......it does on this team which refuses to spend more than 6 million on a 1st baseman. again, Hamate surgery.....maybe look at the september data by itself, earlier in the year just isn't going to be reflective.

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Arky, Cruz is a liability at short. And he's not short. Stick his 6'7" frame at 1B.

Cruz needs to play a position where he doesn't need to throw the ball

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Dude with a huge arm shouldn’t throw the ball? Bold thought.

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Good stuff as always AM

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I agree 100%, this is how I see it playing out too. Will be interesting what happens with Grandal.

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why? he'll be on the DL, delay makes the team and grandal is up a few weeks into the season.

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I’m interested if he starts on the IL or with the team. I heard he has been playing on the backfields. Also I would be tempted to cut him if his injury lingers. I think they have enough depth and Davis looks like he can catch. Also, Delay is a better defender and back up than Grandal in my opinion.

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We arent going to.cut grandal. Hes far better offensively than delay and has much more experience to teach davis. May we trade him? Sure

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