I’m hoping for a bounce back from ‘Bender’ also ;) specifically his bender the curve which lost its wicked break last year.
Santana is a lock period after last year in fact I see him as a lock and Nicolas and Mlod both as more likely to take an option for a bit. I wouldn’t hate 3 lefties in the pen as righties have a disadvantage at PNC.
Why not let the ‘confused’ as said play it out and if necessary you have those righty options available.
I’m also interested in seeing if Moreta returns with the same arm and fire he had before being lost. He showed some potential.
I know I am way over reading your intent, but I prefer a good right handed reliever vs. a bad left handed PNC or anywhere. With the 3 batter minimum (when applicable) and with outside of legit top of rotation pitchers going 6 as a luxury, I don't want to overthink the handedness and just want the best guys. You do need balance for those rare occasions when the batter also has handedness issues but I think that can be over emphasized as a priority.
The striking part of this to me, which made me want to make a categorized list out of it, was realizing that they have seven spots probably locked up. Apart from injury or a massive spring meltdown, the only reasonably plausible scenario I can see where one of those seven doesn't make the team is Nicolas not being able to throw strikes. So that leaves one spot open, with two on-the-cusp 40-man guys (as of now) out of options.
Not sure this is a good situation. Cherington has pointed out that good relievers can just pop up out of nowhere, which is true enough. But you need the ability to sort through a mob like this, which often means being able to option this guy and call that guy up. One of the reasons for the pop-up phenomenon is that AAA performance often doesn't translate to the bigs. If, say, Tanner Rainey has great numbers at Indy, it may just be because he's appeared in 198 big league games and AAA hitters are no challenge.
I don't think it is jut me trying on some rose colored glasses when I look back at last year and say if Bednar pitches 90% as effective in '24 as he did in '23 that we would have a very different opinion of the bullpen in '24. The middle innings guys did have some meltdown but big picture the Santana-Mlod-Nicholas performance as the 5-7 innings guy was pretty good for a bullpen IMO. I like Ferguson and hope they keep him in the bullpen as I think he is needed there and there are other options for long man / 5th starter. If Holderman can tick it up 5% and Bednar can return to '23 or even lightly less form then it doesn't seem that bad.
Alternatively, if Bednar pitches similarly to '24. If Holderman ticks down 5%, and if the loss of Chapman is as bad as I think it is, the bullpen could be one of the worst in all of baseball. Losing Chapman and bringing in Ferguson and a bunch of guys who didn't even perform well in AAA should not inspire confidence.
While I’m fully behind the idea of Ashcraft in the bullpen, I’d let it play out before thinking about transferring him to the back of the pen. If he holds up as a multi inning reliever (and is effective), that’s a huge weapon to have. I wouldn’t want to move him off that just because Bednar is on his way out.
Stats: In "today's game" starters only need to go 5 innings. Shrinking the difference between a starter and a long man. I could see Ashcraft or Oviedo as a piggy-back/long man. A reliever who can go 3 or 4 innings would be nice.
I agree with all of that. I should have said a starter vs. a one-inning reliever. I am more for long relievers than anyone.... especially when we are talking 3 to 5 innings.
Ashcraft has endured enough breakdowns physically that I hope they bring him in as a SP and let him make the decisions for himself. Chances are he will not make the Final 26 in either capacity, so he becomes part of the Rotation at AAA with Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows, and possibly Po Yu Chen and/or Hunter Barco. Barco pitched very well in A+ and in 2 starts at AA - is that rushing him too quickly? Another option is to have Barco make 8-10 starts at AA and then move up to AAA by mid-June if all goes well.
That’s fair. However I think Ashcraft has enough issues holding him back as a starter and they have a need in the pen. Moreover, this role keeps him semi stretched out if he has to transition back.
I agree about Ashcraft, with his injury woes, it makes sense to put him in the pen and limit his innings that way. I see him as the defacto closer in 2026 unless one of the others rises to his level. I would not be surprised to see Bednar gets dealt at the deadline and Ashcraft takes his place. If Bednar has an all star year, imagine what he might bring?
My 1 nitpick and a comment (as I know Anthony and WTM are anxiously awaiting my approval).
* I'd make Santana a lock based off his '24 performance and 0 options. I just don't see a scenario beyond loss of MPH that they would not hold onto him even with a bad spring. In the crap shoot that a bullpen can be, 2024 counts more than a rough spring.
* I like that you separated the NRI's and Others but to me they are one big pile that hopefully several will step up. Stratton to me is ahead of many of the rostered. Several of the 'others' to me will fall into the Roansy bucket and will get dropped to make room on the 40 and then bounce around the league unless they go unclaimed then they just slide to the NRI pile. Wentz - being born confused (lefty) - of course has an advantage.
TBH, the main thing that led me to list Santana and Mlod as "near" locks is the crowded situation. I'm guessing they aren't real eager to dump Wentz, who was pretty good late last year, or Strzelecki, who's mostly been pretty good in the majors. They're both out of options. Of course, so is Santana, so he'd have to implode big-time not to make it.
Also, if you look at those first seven guys, it's hard to see a "bulk" reliever. It seems to me some roster maneuvering has to be in store here, which fits with your point about NRIs and Others.
One other point -- Mayza and Wentz both have large platoon splits. (Ferguson has none.) It'd be hard to carry both. Tough puzzle.
That's where it almost seems the Pirates plan for the bullpen is. a) sign as many cheap relievers that might have potential. b) if they are bad, cut them. c) hope a few of them will have break-out years.
It's not such a bad plan, but I'm unsure how you execute it when you have so many guys on guaranteed contracts and guys with no options. Spring training just isn't going to clarify things that much.
so f*cking sad...
Now I know why Dan only projects Skenes for 8 wins.
Skenes currently is projected to be his best pitcher in 2025, but wins on the other hand...
I’m hoping for a bounce back from ‘Bender’ also ;) specifically his bender the curve which lost its wicked break last year.
Santana is a lock period after last year in fact I see him as a lock and Nicolas and Mlod both as more likely to take an option for a bit. I wouldn’t hate 3 lefties in the pen as righties have a disadvantage at PNC.
Why not let the ‘confused’ as said play it out and if necessary you have those righty options available.
I’m also interested in seeing if Moreta returns with the same arm and fire he had before being lost. He showed some potential.
I know I am way over reading your intent, but I prefer a good right handed reliever vs. a bad left handed PNC or anywhere. With the 3 batter minimum (when applicable) and with outside of legit top of rotation pitchers going 6 as a luxury, I don't want to overthink the handedness and just want the best guys. You do need balance for those rare occasions when the batter also has handedness issues but I think that can be over emphasized as a priority.
The striking part of this to me, which made me want to make a categorized list out of it, was realizing that they have seven spots probably locked up. Apart from injury or a massive spring meltdown, the only reasonably plausible scenario I can see where one of those seven doesn't make the team is Nicolas not being able to throw strikes. So that leaves one spot open, with two on-the-cusp 40-man guys (as of now) out of options.
Not sure this is a good situation. Cherington has pointed out that good relievers can just pop up out of nowhere, which is true enough. But you need the ability to sort through a mob like this, which often means being able to option this guy and call that guy up. One of the reasons for the pop-up phenomenon is that AAA performance often doesn't translate to the bigs. If, say, Tanner Rainey has great numbers at Indy, it may just be because he's appeared in 198 big league games and AAA hitters are no challenge.
I don't think it is jut me trying on some rose colored glasses when I look back at last year and say if Bednar pitches 90% as effective in '24 as he did in '23 that we would have a very different opinion of the bullpen in '24. The middle innings guys did have some meltdown but big picture the Santana-Mlod-Nicholas performance as the 5-7 innings guy was pretty good for a bullpen IMO. I like Ferguson and hope they keep him in the bullpen as I think he is needed there and there are other options for long man / 5th starter. If Holderman can tick it up 5% and Bednar can return to '23 or even lightly less form then it doesn't seem that bad.
Alternatively, if Bednar pitches similarly to '24. If Holderman ticks down 5%, and if the loss of Chapman is as bad as I think it is, the bullpen could be one of the worst in all of baseball. Losing Chapman and bringing in Ferguson and a bunch of guys who didn't even perform well in AAA should not inspire confidence.
While I’m fully behind the idea of Ashcraft in the bullpen, I’d let it play out before thinking about transferring him to the back of the pen. If he holds up as a multi inning reliever (and is effective), that’s a huge weapon to have. I wouldn’t want to move him off that just because Bednar is on his way out.
This might be the wrong attitude in today's game, but I never want a see a guy with starter potential be made into a reliever.
Stats: In "today's game" starters only need to go 5 innings. Shrinking the difference between a starter and a long man. I could see Ashcraft or Oviedo as a piggy-back/long man. A reliever who can go 3 or 4 innings would be nice.
I agree with all of that. I should have said a starter vs. a one-inning reliever. I am more for long relievers than anyone.... especially when we are talking 3 to 5 innings.
Ashcraft has endured enough breakdowns physically that I hope they bring him in as a SP and let him make the decisions for himself. Chances are he will not make the Final 26 in either capacity, so he becomes part of the Rotation at AAA with Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows, and possibly Po Yu Chen and/or Hunter Barco. Barco pitched very well in A+ and in 2 starts at AA - is that rushing him too quickly? Another option is to have Barco make 8-10 starts at AA and then move up to AAA by mid-June if all goes well.
That’s fair. However I think Ashcraft has enough issues holding him back as a starter and they have a need in the pen. Moreover, this role keeps him semi stretched out if he has to transition back.
I agree about Ashcraft, with his injury woes, it makes sense to put him in the pen and limit his innings that way. I see him as the defacto closer in 2026 unless one of the others rises to his level. I would not be surprised to see Bednar gets dealt at the deadline and Ashcraft takes his place. If Bednar has an all star year, imagine what he might bring?
My 1 nitpick and a comment (as I know Anthony and WTM are anxiously awaiting my approval).
* I'd make Santana a lock based off his '24 performance and 0 options. I just don't see a scenario beyond loss of MPH that they would not hold onto him even with a bad spring. In the crap shoot that a bullpen can be, 2024 counts more than a rough spring.
* I like that you separated the NRI's and Others but to me they are one big pile that hopefully several will step up. Stratton to me is ahead of many of the rostered. Several of the 'others' to me will fall into the Roansy bucket and will get dropped to make room on the 40 and then bounce around the league unless they go unclaimed then they just slide to the NRI pile. Wentz - being born confused (lefty) - of course has an advantage.
TBH, the main thing that led me to list Santana and Mlod as "near" locks is the crowded situation. I'm guessing they aren't real eager to dump Wentz, who was pretty good late last year, or Strzelecki, who's mostly been pretty good in the majors. They're both out of options. Of course, so is Santana, so he'd have to implode big-time not to make it.
Also, if you look at those first seven guys, it's hard to see a "bulk" reliever. It seems to me some roster maneuvering has to be in store here, which fits with your point about NRIs and Others.
One other point -- Mayza and Wentz both have large platoon splits. (Ferguson has none.) It'd be hard to carry both. Tough puzzle.
I am pretty high on Santana as well, but my ability to predict which relievers will do well from one season to the next.... is not good.
Nobody's is.
That's where it almost seems the Pirates plan for the bullpen is. a) sign as many cheap relievers that might have potential. b) if they are bad, cut them. c) hope a few of them will have break-out years.
It's not such a bad plan, but I'm unsure how you execute it when you have so many guys on guaranteed contracts and guys with no options. Spring training just isn't going to clarify things that much.
I think fans will fear this ensemble of relievers more than opposing batters.