Pittsburgh Pirates Rule 5 Draft Preview

Who’s Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft?

I’m not sure what it is, but there is very little that ignites the interest of so many fans more than the Rule 5 Draft.

Which is funny, because the event just isn’t all that important, at least in relation to the amount of hype it garners.

Many fans seem to get wrapped up in the Endowment Effect—assigning more value to something that’s “yours” than you would if it wasn’t—leading to the fear of losing any prospect with a shred of potential. Of course, many prospects that fans fear losing are a dime a dozen and similar ones are available from other organizations fairly easily.

So, sure, is the Rule 5 Draft “important”. In a practical sense, no, not really, but it’s still fun to talk about, even as a way to keep us busy during what can be the doldrums of an MLB offseason.

So, with that in mind, here is the list of players that currently project to be available in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ organization. I removed players that are technically still around but will be hitting minor league free agency before the draft. If any of those players end up resigning, they would still be eligible for the draft.

Previously Eligible:

Cam Alldred

Andrés Alvarez

Braxton Ashcraft

Carter Bins

Josh Bissonette

Sergio Campana

Brad Case

Wil Crowe

Omar Cruz

Maikol Escotto

Drake Fellows

Adrian Florencio

J.C. Flowers

Grant Ford

Matt Fraizer

Geronimo Franzua

Darvin Garcia

Matt Gorski

Abrahan Gutierrez

Jack Herman

Juan Jerez

Carlos Jimenez

Cameron Junker

Will Kobos

Grant Koch

Valentin Linarez

Dariel Lopez

Jose Maldonado

Will Matthiessen

Alexander Mojica

Johan Montero

Deivis Nadal

Rodolfo Nolasco

Malcom Nuñez

Luis Peralta

Joe Perez

Connor Scott

Aaron Shackelford

Dylan Shockley

Aaron Shortridge

Eli Wilson

Eddy Yean

First-Time Eligible:

Gilberto Alcala

Omar Alonzo

Jase Bowen

Jesus Castillo

Tsung-Che Cheng

Diego Chiquillo

Cristopher Cruz

Jauri Custodio

Robert DePaula

Isaias Dipre

Rafael Escalante

Eybert Escalona

Ewry Espinal

Roelmy Garcia

Ryan Harbin

Hudson Head

Luis Hernandez

Luis Joseph

Brennan Malone

Rafael Mendez

Yojeiry Osoria

Geovanny Planchart

Keneth Quintanilla

Jorge Ramos

Patricio Ress

Javier Rivas

Eliecer Romero

Sammy Siani

Joaquin Tejada

Enmanuel Terrero

Yunior Thibo

Jeral Toledo

Fabian Urbina

Wilkin Valdez

With the names behind us, let’s break these players down into a few different groups.

Not Taken Before, Won’t Be Now

These are players I described before—ones that fans feared losing, thus wanting to monopolize one or more valuable spots on the 40-man roster as opposed to risk losing them.

With that in mind, I want to touch on something about this process before addressing some names. Let’s use the example of Ryan Vilade and Blake Sabol this past offseason—ignoring the fact that Sabol was selected and stuck with the San Francisco Giants all season.

The common refrain is “how can they choose Player X over Player Y?!?!” The thing is, the Pirates may not have liked Vilade more than Sabol; rather, they just may have thought the chances of losing Sabol weren’t that high. If they tie up that roster spot with Sabol unnecessarily, it can’t be used later for anyone else. However, if they take the small chance of losing him—one that ultimately played out—they can use that spot later for another player they like more—Rob Zastryzny, as it turned out (okay, maybe this is a bad example…)—while likely keeping Sabol in the process (and in this example, Vilade as well). Basically, it was three for the price of one roster spot, whereas if they had protected Sabol, it would have been one for one.

In the end, 40-man spots are extremely valuable, and teams try to keep as many players they like in the organization as possible while utilizing all those valuable spots. Maybe fans would prefer more straightforward tactics, but it’s more akin to playing a game.

So, who are we looking at? Escotto, Mojica, and Nolasco were notable prospects who just haven’t quite progressed as the team probably hoped—the first two more than the third, to be fair. Jimenez was a hot name last offseason but was injured much of the season. Fraizer had one big season but has yet to put it together since, while Alvarez garnered some attention after a big 2022 season that he was not able to replicate.

Gorski and Nuñez are players with promise that in theory could get selected, but likely won’t for different reasons—chief among them Gorski’s swing-and-miss issues and Nuñez’s position, which just isn’t valued in the Rule 5 Draft.

One final name I wanted to mention is Perez. He signed a two-year minor league contract with the team after being released by the Houston Astros. Originally assigned to Altoona, he performed exceptionally well before being promoted to Indianapolis for a handful of games to end the season.

His performance and prior inclusion on a roster may make it look like he would garner some consideration, but I find it unlikely, given that he was ran through waivers and went unclaimed before getting released. If no team wanted to claim him for $50,000 when he could be optioned, I find it hard to believe that a team would want to pay $100,000 to have to keep him on their active roster—unless his Double-A performance really turned some heads.

Notable Names

These are first time eligible players that for varying reasons will not get consideration, despite being known among fans, nonetheless.

Head and Malone are big-time trade acquisitions that just haven’t quite worked out. Cristopher Cruz was a notable international signing that hasn’t made it past the Complex League in three seasons, while Harbin was making waves in Bradenton before struggling in Greensboro. Siani is a high draft pick that hasn’t progressed, while Castillo was a FCL batting champion in 2022 that had much more difficulty in his move to Low-A.

Terrero started the season hot before getting injured and is probably too far down the organizational ladder to get considered at this point.

Possibilities

This is where I think players could make the cut, but I just can’t fully commit to it happening.

First is Ashcraft, who if I had to guess will get protected, I just can’t say I would be totally surprised if he didn’t, so he stays here for now.

He missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John but came back with a very solid first season back from injury, pitching at three levels between rehab and actual games, finishing the season strong in Altoona.

The team still needs to see if Ashcraft can be extended as a starter moving forward, but is it possible that a team takes a chance on hiding him in a bullpen role for a year? Sure, I don’t see why not, so the team ultimately may want to protect him while they see what they have in his first full season back.

The other is Bowen, who I wasn’t totally convinced on, at least until his recent performance in the Arizona Fall League. Bowen has been on fire, and we saw the Pirates protect Colin Selby after a strong run in the AFL last year.

Bowen is a sort of jack-of-all trades, master of none that has some speed and power combo to his game. Ultimately, I think the team gambles—if you want to call it that—and doesn’t protect him, but I’m not as sure as I was before.

Locks

If you are unfamiliar with the way the Rule 5 Draft works, players who are 19 or older at signing are generally eligible for the fourth draft after their signing, while players at 18 or younger are eligible for the fifth. That means that college players signed in 2020 and high school/international players from 2019 are basically the class of first-time eligible players.

Of course, 2020 was the five-round draft, significantly limiting the pool of eligible players. Cutting it down even more was the slew of debuts we saw this year in the majors, with players who would have been eligible this year—Nick Gonzales, Carmen Mlodzinski, Kyle Nicolas, Quinn Priester, and Alika Williams—being selected and making offseason roster decisions a tad easier.

With that in mind, I see one definite addition—Tsung-Che Cheng. A strong hitter who has performed well in the lower levels, Cheng excelled in Greensboro this season, leading to a midseason promotion to Altoona. He struggled at first, but eventually got acclimated and performed more like the team has been used to seeing.

He likely starts the season in Altoona next year, which can be problematic when it comes to protecting players and exhausting options, but Cheng is the type of player I see the team not taking a chance on losing, which wouldn’t make me surprised if he was in a class of one come November 14^th.

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Like I said, this is a subject that fans love to weigh in on, so what do you think? Where I am right, or where am I crazy?

Let the discussion flow, but remember, it’s likely not all that important.