The Rule V may not really matter, but I think it’s a good proxy for two key aspects of baseball operations:
1) Are they paying attention to roster management details, understanding the rules, the nuances, etc? Or are they incompetent?
2) Are they a good judge of talent? Can they adequately assess their own talent? Can they discover hidden gems with other teams?
Based on how they managed the last Rule V, I’m not optimistic about either. This is not Littlefield-level incompetence, but it isn’t demonstrative of being able to handle the fundamental roster management aspects, either.
The graduations this year obviously played a big role in their plummeting prospect ranking but I can't look past this mass grave from those vaunted '21-'22 systems known for their "depth".
He missed parts of the season, why isn't he out West w other Rafters
Some key points missed
-newly turned 23yo bat first catcher 2 time MVP, Batting title and Class A Champ
needs to bat every day, not
0-3, BB K
BENCHED
2-4
PH
0-4 1K
NO GAME
3-4, 3B HR
0-2 2BB 2 Line outs
BENCHED
Big lesson missed
BANNED from the vessel is the "YOU HIT YOU SIT" mentality which stems from
Shelty's great grandfather who penned the classic "sheltonian, book of bad decsions"
No one trying to tackle this one, has come up with anything except just FLUSH it
The issue here is the 3rd flush, he out of FLUSHES and as stated in the good book after 3 years of flushing, answers the question is Shelty Rule 5 Eligible
more missed key points
You can never let Delay PH from here on out unless Joe is still here somehow and there's men in scoring position
Its not OK, to pull a starter throwing a one hitter after 7 IP up 2-0 with PC at 83
missed mid and late season safety meetings reminding skippers that repeat offenders guilty of over using set up men and closers will be FLUSHED
Its now come to the point where Endy Rodriguez has taken over the pitching staff by way of a pitchers mutiny, its all up to the pitchers and looks like the entire staff wants direction from Endy only
Shelty will surely pass thru waivers and once done he has 10 days to complete psych evauation to better understand if he needs a stint in the florida complex league befroe he starts his heartbreak climb up hill thru the levels a second time
"someone was quoted as saying "it like learning how to walk again"
someone mentioned to shelty "you know you could elect free agency and bypass all that by joining another organization"
Shelty replied, why would i do that, I love torturing pittsburgh, their easy, all purr and no bite
just the way drew it up and I like the bed Ive made
Plus i can't take a chance on a bigger city, someone would scoop my hot wife up in a moments notice
Nice work and no worries on the 50/50 prospect predictions. The pirates have no idea what they have and what they might have.
Example of might have: CASTRO
They were so enamored with Castro's power as a switch hitting flexible middle infielder they ignored a handful of red flags for WAY TOO LONG. Defense, lack of zone awareness, knowledge of game, dismal in clutch, couldn't hit RH's.
After 2 years, why did I see an LH DH, if that? Why did they think he was the next Ryne Sandberg?
They say good teams need to be strong up the middle defensively no matter the sacrifice
Example of HAVE but you HAVE no clue: GORSKI
Matt Gorski is simply a 4- tool player and last year finally showed signs of rounding that to 5
Gorski history- 2019 old regime drafted him, 2nd round out of Univ of Indiana, has pedigree
PLAYING AGE
Age 21,
2019- Draft year 21G in CF made an 1 Error as a rookie
Age 22,
2020- cancelled
Age 23,
2021- 95,G 18 2B, 17HR, 18 SB 125 K (31%) CF- 48G 3 A, 0 E
Age 24,
2022- 81G, 24 HR, 69 RBI, 21 SB 92 K (28%) CF- 44G 3A, 1E 2ND AND LAST ERROR
Age 25;
2023- 108G 20 HR, 61 RBI, 23 SB, K 106 (25%) CF-55G 4A, 0 E
*** Gorski fanned 13 times first week of season, his K-rate drops to 21%
Gorski should have had a shot in the Bigs by now JUST FOR HIS DEFENSE ALONE
A true victim of circumstance,
2019-change of regime
2020-covid
2022-injury on june 29th wrecked an easy 30-30 season and probably 35-35 MVP
2023-After Henry left Altoona, he hit in middle of the worst line up there in a while
After Suwinski and Marcano got the call last year, he was blocked by
Connor Scott, Matt Frazier, Lolo Sanchez and Blake Sabol when not C
After getting promoted to Indy at the end of last year, most figured a start AAA this year
Blocked again by Mays, Aaron and Clemente
OR
Villade
Mitchell
Young
CSN
Swags
Andujar
ALL DFA except CSN and he might be next, all cleared waivers
How, moreso why is Matt Gorski who plays all 3 OF spots has 2 lifetime ERROR's in CF over 1200 innings not on the 40 man, also plays 1B needs more reps, no worse than CJ
5 BEST tools of the Pirate UPPERS
1. Gold leather- 2 E's
2. Fastest true CF
3. Strongest and accurate arm-11 Assists
4. Top RH power hitter
5. Reduced his K-rate from 31% to 21% less than 2 years
2022-23 SEASONS
700 AB's
44 hR's
127 RBI
44 SB
7 CS
Reynolds, Gorski, Suwinski- top 3 DEF OUTFIELD
With a combined HR floor-ceiling 60-90 and SB 30-60
Davis and Palacios mixed in for certain situation, injury, nasty match up day off etc
Last Nov MG was damaged goods. IMO he's not that far away
If your a GG finalist at PNC Park your bat plays somewhere in the line up with these numbers
.222/.322/.422/.744
20/20
30% K
BB 10%
SAME THING WITH BOWEN NEXT YEAR
Just please don't sign an OF, and find another home for .156 w RISP Joe
UNDERSTAND brass if he's not here he can't have any LOB
BTW, thanks Ethan for the work on producing this listing of the Pirates Rule 5 eligible players. The Pirates lost a lot of quality players last year and I expect that could happen again this year.
It's mostly not. Only IA and Thunder are recognizable names from the pre-Reverand Sproul days. Vox has disinterested gig-worker "writers" who don't care about the Pirates barely keeping the lights on.
The amount of fan attention to R5 is inversely proportional to our favorite team's willingness to do literally anything else.
We Pirate fans are stuck with the current stewards of OUR franchise and thus this non-event becomes one of the few things us poor baseball souls have to bullshit about.
Thanks for the info, Ethan. Still a little sore about losing Sabol - not that he was a world beater, but the Pirates can't be giving major leaguers away for free. Cherrington completely bungled the minor league portion as well.
I actually have an article coming out in a couple of days on the minor league R5 draft from last year, recapping everyone they lost.
As far as Sabol, yea he probably isn't a difference maker but compared to the rookies the Pirates had this year, he had the best wRC+ and him and Endy put up the best WAR (0.7).
Still noteworthy though that the guy you let go had one of the more productive years compared among rookies. Sabol's fit was weird tho. They obviously valued defense first at catching. Not going to get much time in LF with B-Rey. First base I guess, but that spot didn't technically open up until Choi was traded.
There are always players that you want protected but there are only 40 spots, so you have to roll the dice, protect those you can not live without sand hope the rest of MLB doesn't value your prospects as high as you do and they don't get claimed.
Cheng, Ashcraft and Bowen seem like the only ones to protect or package in a trade. Nunez, Gutierrez, Bins and Gorski have slim chances of getting picked but still could play themselves into a role on the big club. Most of the others haven't made it double A or had extended success once they got there.
Cheng and Ashcraft need to be protected in my opinion and Bowen is making his case to be added. I would hate to lose any of the three unless they are traded especially Ashcraft with his performance this past year, he seemed to get better as the year went on.
Ashcraft will be worth more as he progresses through AA and into AAA this year. I think he would be picked in the R5 if not protected. The Pirates have positions of need, and quality young pitchers are definitely worth protecting. CF is also a position of need; Bowen hits RH and plays CF, as well as the other two OF positions and 1B.
If they don’t protect Ashcraft, then they need to package him with someone like Nick G or Peguero to get a corner, power bat, or mid-level SP with years of control. It would be a borderline fir-able offense to let a SP with that much God-given talent go in Rule 5 draft.
For the record I’d protect him not trade him. I’m just saying exposing him would be completely off the table.
I would target the dodgers (Busch), very similar milb numbers. Busch had better stats batting while NickG is the better fielder at 2nd and 3rd. A move to 1st might really help Busch and I think his bat will eventually play. He's not going to have that chance in LA with Freeman and he isn't going to be their DH. We might have to throw another small prospect in but Busch's upside at 1st might be worth it.
I happen to think Busch is pretty overrated (lots of Moran vibes), and wouldn’t make him a priority to pick up. But, as a depth move for 1B, I could get down with it.
I think he's overrated as well, he doesn't have the arm for 3rd and lacks the range for 2nd. I think he's a better hitter than Moran, Busch usually struggles at the start of a new level but once he figures it out he dominates.
I only see him as a 1st basemen or DH. The dodgers have done a good job of keeping his value high by leaving him at 3rd and 2nd primarily. If he doesn't hit at an above average level he doesn't have hardly any value.
If he does hit and can handle 1st, it would solve a hole in the lineup.
I love this idea. Really most 1b prospects are probably relatively undervalued outside of a few big names, so we might be able to sell his ability to kinda hold down a few different positions and upgrade the bat capabilities
Agree to protect Ashcraft or pair him with Nick G in a trade. Not Peguero. He is a MLB-Caliber MI - Shortstop and 2B. If Oneil Cruz is not ready, Peguero is our SS. He, Triolo, and Bae can and do play 2B and also play other key positions for the Pirates - Peguero SS/2B; Bae 2B/CF; and Triolo 3B/2B/1B.
Looking at the 40 - I have Delay, Davis, and Endy at C; Hayes, Cruz, Triolo, Bae, and Peguero IF; Reynolds, Suwinski, 'Cutch, and Joe OF. That's 12 position players, and I think we will want to protect 14 Pitchers going into the R5.
The Rule V may not really matter, but I think it’s a good proxy for two key aspects of baseball operations:
1) Are they paying attention to roster management details, understanding the rules, the nuances, etc? Or are they incompetent?
2) Are they a good judge of talent? Can they adequately assess their own talent? Can they discover hidden gems with other teams?
Based on how they managed the last Rule V, I’m not optimistic about either. This is not Littlefield-level incompetence, but it isn’t demonstrative of being able to handle the fundamental roster management aspects, either.
My goodness, this list.
The graduations this year obviously played a big role in their plummeting prospect ranking but I can't look past this mass grave from those vaunted '21-'22 systems known for their "depth".
For some teams, depth becomes a few usable pieces. For our team, depth becomes... whatever this is lol
Is Shelty rule 5 eligible?
He missed parts of the season, why isn't he out West w other Rafters
Some key points missed
-newly turned 23yo bat first catcher 2 time MVP, Batting title and Class A Champ
needs to bat every day, not
0-3, BB K
BENCHED
2-4
PH
0-4 1K
NO GAME
3-4, 3B HR
0-2 2BB 2 Line outs
BENCHED
Big lesson missed
BANNED from the vessel is the "YOU HIT YOU SIT" mentality which stems from
Shelty's great grandfather who penned the classic "sheltonian, book of bad decsions"
No one trying to tackle this one, has come up with anything except just FLUSH it
The issue here is the 3rd flush, he out of FLUSHES and as stated in the good book after 3 years of flushing, answers the question is Shelty Rule 5 Eligible
more missed key points
You can never let Delay PH from here on out unless Joe is still here somehow and there's men in scoring position
Its not OK, to pull a starter throwing a one hitter after 7 IP up 2-0 with PC at 83
missed mid and late season safety meetings reminding skippers that repeat offenders guilty of over using set up men and closers will be FLUSHED
Its now come to the point where Endy Rodriguez has taken over the pitching staff by way of a pitchers mutiny, its all up to the pitchers and looks like the entire staff wants direction from Endy only
Shelty will surely pass thru waivers and once done he has 10 days to complete psych evauation to better understand if he needs a stint in the florida complex league befroe he starts his heartbreak climb up hill thru the levels a second time
"someone was quoted as saying "it like learning how to walk again"
someone mentioned to shelty "you know you could elect free agency and bypass all that by joining another organization"
Shelty replied, why would i do that, I love torturing pittsburgh, their easy, all purr and no bite
just the way drew it up and I like the bed Ive made
Plus i can't take a chance on a bigger city, someone would scoop my hot wife up in a moments notice
Made me google his wife. He made at least one good decision.
you buried that 5 hole
LMAO
Annnnd scene.
CUT!
Shelty, out of flushes, elects free agency!
The final take
I didn’t know Hunter S. Thompson posted here!
Hey Ethan, another question. On the player pages Omar Cruz is listed as a 23 free agent. Maybe he has another year.
Cruz signed in 2017 for the 2018 season, making his seven seasons 2018-24, so he has one more year left.
Nice work and no worries on the 50/50 prospect predictions. The pirates have no idea what they have and what they might have.
Example of might have: CASTRO
They were so enamored with Castro's power as a switch hitting flexible middle infielder they ignored a handful of red flags for WAY TOO LONG. Defense, lack of zone awareness, knowledge of game, dismal in clutch, couldn't hit RH's.
After 2 years, why did I see an LH DH, if that? Why did they think he was the next Ryne Sandberg?
*******************************************************************************************************
They say good teams need to be strong up the middle defensively no matter the sacrifice
Example of HAVE but you HAVE no clue: GORSKI
Matt Gorski is simply a 4- tool player and last year finally showed signs of rounding that to 5
Gorski history- 2019 old regime drafted him, 2nd round out of Univ of Indiana, has pedigree
PLAYING AGE
Age 21,
2019- Draft year 21G in CF made an 1 Error as a rookie
Age 22,
2020- cancelled
Age 23,
2021- 95,G 18 2B, 17HR, 18 SB 125 K (31%) CF- 48G 3 A, 0 E
Age 24,
2022- 81G, 24 HR, 69 RBI, 21 SB 92 K (28%) CF- 44G 3A, 1E 2ND AND LAST ERROR
Age 25;
2023- 108G 20 HR, 61 RBI, 23 SB, K 106 (25%) CF-55G 4A, 0 E
*** Gorski fanned 13 times first week of season, his K-rate drops to 21%
Gorski should have had a shot in the Bigs by now JUST FOR HIS DEFENSE ALONE
A true victim of circumstance,
2019-change of regime
2020-covid
2022-injury on june 29th wrecked an easy 30-30 season and probably 35-35 MVP
2023-After Henry left Altoona, he hit in middle of the worst line up there in a while
After Suwinski and Marcano got the call last year, he was blocked by
Connor Scott, Matt Frazier, Lolo Sanchez and Blake Sabol when not C
After getting promoted to Indy at the end of last year, most figured a start AAA this year
Blocked again by Mays, Aaron and Clemente
OR
Villade
Mitchell
Young
CSN
Swags
Andujar
ALL DFA except CSN and he might be next, all cleared waivers
How, moreso why is Matt Gorski who plays all 3 OF spots has 2 lifetime ERROR's in CF over 1200 innings not on the 40 man, also plays 1B needs more reps, no worse than CJ
5 BEST tools of the Pirate UPPERS
1. Gold leather- 2 E's
2. Fastest true CF
3. Strongest and accurate arm-11 Assists
4. Top RH power hitter
5. Reduced his K-rate from 31% to 21% less than 2 years
2022-23 SEASONS
700 AB's
44 hR's
127 RBI
44 SB
7 CS
Reynolds, Gorski, Suwinski- top 3 DEF OUTFIELD
With a combined HR floor-ceiling 60-90 and SB 30-60
Davis and Palacios mixed in for certain situation, injury, nasty match up day off etc
Last Nov MG was damaged goods. IMO he's not that far away
If your a GG finalist at PNC Park your bat plays somewhere in the line up with these numbers
.222/.322/.422/.744
20/20
30% K
BB 10%
SAME THING WITH BOWEN NEXT YEAR
Just please don't sign an OF, and find another home for .156 w RISP Joe
UNDERSTAND brass if he's not here he can't have any LOB
for a team that made the playoffs, Toronto sure has a lot of interesting buy low candidates
anybody here think Varsho could catch in a pinch?
Manoah and varsho for Ro and shelton
need to teach Palacios how to be emergency catcher
I heard JVM is open to returning
Von Benshouten?
BTW, thanks Ethan for the work on producing this listing of the Pirates Rule 5 eligible players. The Pirates lost a lot of quality players last year and I expect that could happen again this year.
Former Bucsdugout folks may remember Cocktailsfor2. I read the unfortunate news that he passed away last weekend.
Very sad. C42 was always a breath of fresh air.
Haven’t heard from Lee Foo in a while. Hope he’s OK
Barmes - so smooth
Oh no! Can someone share his full name?
Eric Livermore.
We had a gathering in Pgh a couple months ago. He was in good spirits then. This was very difficult news.
Thanks Wilbur, hang in there. What a shame.
Wow, so sorry to hear. We are sometime a somewhat nameless community but I have always enjoyed being a part of it. Sympathy for Eric's family.
Man, that's too bad.
Oh no, really?
Unfortunately, yeah. IAPiratesfan mentioned on Bucsdugout.
Didn't even realize BD was still around.
It's mostly not. Only IA and Thunder are recognizable names from the pre-Reverand Sproul days. Vox has disinterested gig-worker "writers" who don't care about the Pirates barely keeping the lights on.
When they were hiring a site mgr before I left, it became clear they actively did NOT want an actual fan.
Seems like they actively do not want the site to be active.
So much for this year's roster crunch.
Not gonna be that different next year, either.
The amount of fan attention to R5 is inversely proportional to our favorite team's willingness to do literally anything else.
We Pirate fans are stuck with the current stewards of OUR franchise and thus this non-event becomes one of the few things us poor baseball souls have to bullshit about.
Thanks for the info, Ethan. Still a little sore about losing Sabol - not that he was a world beater, but the Pirates can't be giving major leaguers away for free. Cherrington completely bungled the minor league portion as well.
I actually have an article coming out in a couple of days on the minor league R5 draft from last year, recapping everyone they lost.
As far as Sabol, yea he probably isn't a difference maker but compared to the rookies the Pirates had this year, he had the best wRC+ and him and Endy put up the best WAR (0.7).
Triolo bested both he and Endy in both categories at 118 wRC+ and 1.7 fWAR but otherwise your point stands
He did. I was on Fangraphs on it and had it sorted to have at least 250 plate appearances I think. That's probably why Triolo didn't show up.
Figured it was something like that, no worries
Still noteworthy though that the guy you let go had one of the more productive years compared among rookies. Sabol's fit was weird tho. They obviously valued defense first at catching. Not going to get much time in LF with B-Rey. First base I guess, but that spot didn't technically open up until Choi was traded.
Yeah could of just never traded for Choi
There are always players that you want protected but there are only 40 spots, so you have to roll the dice, protect those you can not live without sand hope the rest of MLB doesn't value your prospects as high as you do and they don't get claimed.
Cheng, Ashcraft and Bowen seem like the only ones to protect or package in a trade. Nunez, Gutierrez, Bins and Gorski have slim chances of getting picked but still could play themselves into a role on the big club. Most of the others haven't made it double A or had extended success once they got there.
Cheng and Ashcraft need to be protected in my opinion and Bowen is making his case to be added. I would hate to lose any of the three unless they are traded especially Ashcraft with his performance this past year, he seemed to get better as the year went on.
agreed but I can count about 12 guys currently on the roster that we could drop
Yep, I think Ashcraft will get picked if not protected, finding a 40 spot for the 3 should be fairly easy.
Ashcraft will be worth more as he progresses through AA and into AAA this year. I think he would be picked in the R5 if not protected. The Pirates have positions of need, and quality young pitchers are definitely worth protecting. CF is also a position of need; Bowen hits RH and plays CF, as well as the other two OF positions and 1B.
One question. I know the MILB free agent article is coming, but Joe Perez is not on the list with a 2 year deal?
Correct, he would have been eligible, but he'll stick around as he is under contract for 2024
If they don’t protect Ashcraft, then they need to package him with someone like Nick G or Peguero to get a corner, power bat, or mid-level SP with years of control. It would be a borderline fir-able offense to let a SP with that much God-given talent go in Rule 5 draft.
For the record I’d protect him not trade him. I’m just saying exposing him would be completely off the table.
It'd be pretty cool if they could package Bae and Gonzales for an arm like Hughes.
Would also say we should protect and keep Ashcraft, trying to flip nicky g to salvage some value is also something i would like to see happen
I would target the dodgers (Busch), very similar milb numbers. Busch had better stats batting while NickG is the better fielder at 2nd and 3rd. A move to 1st might really help Busch and I think his bat will eventually play. He's not going to have that chance in LA with Freeman and he isn't going to be their DH. We might have to throw another small prospect in but Busch's upside at 1st might be worth it.
I happen to think Busch is pretty overrated (lots of Moran vibes), and wouldn’t make him a priority to pick up. But, as a depth move for 1B, I could get down with it.
I think he's overrated as well, he doesn't have the arm for 3rd and lacks the range for 2nd. I think he's a better hitter than Moran, Busch usually struggles at the start of a new level but once he figures it out he dominates.
I only see him as a 1st basemen or DH. The dodgers have done a good job of keeping his value high by leaving him at 3rd and 2nd primarily. If he doesn't hit at an above average level he doesn't have hardly any value.
If he does hit and can handle 1st, it would solve a hole in the lineup.
Busch for Quinn, straight up?
Probably, I'd rather try to move some middle infielder first like TonyG and a lower level prospect (Brannigan, Cheng or a Sullivan type pitcher).
I would probably want a lottery ticket back as well for Liover.
If Triolo (it's who I think they would want) was the player, I'd want Busch and another top 20 prospect back and I'd still question it a bit.
I love this idea. Really most 1b prospects are probably relatively undervalued outside of a few big names, so we might be able to sell his ability to kinda hold down a few different positions and upgrade the bat capabilities
Agree to protect Ashcraft or pair him with Nick G in a trade. Not Peguero. He is a MLB-Caliber MI - Shortstop and 2B. If Oneil Cruz is not ready, Peguero is our SS. He, Triolo, and Bae can and do play 2B and also play other key positions for the Pirates - Peguero SS/2B; Bae 2B/CF; and Triolo 3B/2B/1B.
Looking at the 40 - I have Delay, Davis, and Endy at C; Hayes, Cruz, Triolo, Bae, and Peguero IF; Reynolds, Suwinski, 'Cutch, and Joe OF. That's 12 position players, and I think we will want to protect 14 Pitchers going into the R5.
Sorry, I was already getting to the Active Roster.