Looking at the innings share in the MIF was really eye opening. Feels like the team should be better by default getting Cruz back, obviously.
This may stir the pot a bit, but I wouldn't be opposed, depending on what's out there, going out and bringing in another 2B. Peguero showed bits and pieces, but was still ultimately a free swinger like he's always been.
Nick Gonzales was kind of exactly the player we thought he'd be with his struggles in the minors.
Triolo hit well, but are we really 100% sold he is the answer as a starter? Or is he just better as a super-utility guy?
There are some spots I feel like are 'locked up' going into next year, I'm not sure 2B is, and if you really want to go into a year where you SHOULD be making that jump with a 'let's throw all these guys against a wall and see who sticks'.
I'll definitely agree it's likely the plural version of somewhere as far as what needs to be upgraded.
I don't know if Cruz is the answer at shortstop. From what I've seen in the minors and his small sample size it would probably be no. I also believe currently he's still the best option there in the system.
In my head 2024 is probably the year you make that decision to move him or stick with him there, the only issue with that is that was based on him playing in 2023.
Pushing that decision back to 2025 probably isn't the best idea if you are putting yourself in position to compete for a playoff spot this upcoming season.
I think you want to give that guy as many opportunities as possible because the ceiling is so high, and the team has been willing to sacrifice defense for the sake of offense at more than one position. I'm just not sure when enough would be enough for them, or who even would be the replacement.
Long story short, I'm glad I don't make these kind of decisions. Only thing I know if they don't go into 2024 with more of a contingency plan at short, it will be a big L for the front office, even more than them not having a clear back up going into 2023.
What's the over/under for guys getting 2b tryouts the last couple of seasons? 12?
The only 2 guys I think have a shot are Triolo and Peguero. I'd start Triolo next season at 2b, with Peguero starting in AAA. The kid obviously needs more seasoning, and he only has played 7games in AAA. Ben has a tendency to rush his kids and it could be detrimental to their futures. Look at guys like Cutch, Marte, Walker, Hayes they all spend ample time in AAA. This isn't a race.
That said, an infield of 1b (FA or trade), Triolo @ 2b, Hayes @ 3b and Cruz @ SS should be a pretty solid squad. I'm completely over Bae, I'm hoping he gets DFA'd this winter. There's no upside with him...just a little slap hitter that can't play defense.
2023 Pirates I'd probably give the infield a C- and that's heavily swayed by Hayes. Cherington did nothing to address SS after Cruz went down. Stevie Wonder could see that Castro and Marcano can't play the position.
Solid teams are built with strength up the middle. Bucs certainly didn't have that at SS or 2b (catching was OK, CF was also meh). Hayes saves this mark from being an overall F. My grades:
1b: C+ (B+ for defense, C- for offense)
2b: F (bottom 3 in both offense and defense. One could make an argument for F- if that was a thing)
B for me. Joe and santana platoon at next year is probably at least a B. Hayes' second half gives him an A despite the slow start. Honestly, triolo surpassed any expectations that i had so A for him as well. MIF was a mess as everyone mentioned, but we definitely learned a lot of who is not the answer lol, I think a hodgepodge of cruz, peggy, triolo, and maybe Bae (booooooo, just my opinion) is probably what they roll with next year and that has a chance to be average or much much more
A lot of blue started popping up on Santana’s percentile rankings per Statcast. I think he’s pretty much a gamble at this point, not too mention that he was a more efficient hitter against LHP similar to Joe. Interesting note on Santana, his xHR total this year was considerably higher in Cincinnati. Not surprising given the ballpark’s reputation, but it was materially higher relative to other parks around the league. If the Reds end up parting ways with Votto, I could see them pursue Santana this off-season as well.
Gave them a B. A for Hayes, incomplete for Cruz, B+ for Santana while he was here. D for non-Santana 1Bs, Cs for the young 2Bs, with some hope that at least 1 or 2 can put it all together next year.
I gave the IF a D. Every player who appeared at 2B or SS had a negative WAR, except Oneil Cruz. That includes: Bae, Gonzales, Peguero, Castro, Marcano, Alika, Mathias, Owings, Capra. That's terrible and nearly impossible. Hayes produced a quality 4.0 WAR season. Triolo produced a surprising 2.1 WAR. Santana had a nice 1.6 WAR in his time with PIT (2.7 overall). Joe and Rivas chipped in. Choi was a failure, but worth a shot. So all in 3B was a significant strength, 1B was passable, and 2B and SS were disasters. Perhaps D+ or C- was the fairest grade.
This factoring both offense and defense. Overall a C.
Obviously losing Cruz for basically the entire season hurt badly, but so did losing Santana at the trade deadline.
The more I think about it, the more likely it seems Davis will eventually be moved to 1B. Even though this will minimize the value of his arm, it will likely be the place on the diamond his glove diminishes his defensive shortcomings the most.
I predict Santana will be back on team this winter, and Davis will be the starting 1B in ‘25.
Santana’s Statcast metrics are in free fall mode; his percentile rankings on expected stats are bluer than they’ve ever been in his career. Also, his barrel %, hard hit %, and EV were well below league average. This epitomizes the definition of decline, especially when considering his age. I like the man, but do not like the player. The Pirates need to do better at 1B.
Call me crazy, but I’d be perfectly fine with a Joe/Choi platoon next year at 1B. Then, spend the bulk of my earmarked FA money on UPgrading the rotation and bullpen. Maybe if I’m real lucky and do my homework, I can find an above average CF that can hit LHP to platoon with Suwinski.
Jase Bowen is writing his name onto the list of Players to Watch in ST 2024. To me it was a near-perfect evening in that he had the game-winning HR in the 9th to cap a 2 for 4 night, 3 RBI, and a Walk. The HR according to an AFL Report was 106 mph off the bat and traveled 450 feet to LC.
I gave it a 'C'. And aside from Hayes I'd go 'D' or 'D+'. Losing Cruz was a big blow, obviously. Next year will be better, assuming Cruz returns to form. And if we can get a competent 1B we could be in the 'B' area, IMHO.
Hayes gets a B+ So does Triolo, a master of the infield. Cruz - the great unknown.. Otherwise prospects hoping to advance. Pegeuro seems the most promising of the rest. Personally, I'm rooting hard for Tucu.
Again, some flashes of brilliance, but mediocre in totality. Potential to be a B+ if all cylinders hit this year, but I do not expect it to be finely tuned.
Looking at the innings share in the MIF was really eye opening. Feels like the team should be better by default getting Cruz back, obviously.
This may stir the pot a bit, but I wouldn't be opposed, depending on what's out there, going out and bringing in another 2B. Peguero showed bits and pieces, but was still ultimately a free swinger like he's always been.
Nick Gonzales was kind of exactly the player we thought he'd be with his struggles in the minors.
Triolo hit well, but are we really 100% sold he is the answer as a starter? Or is he just better as a super-utility guy?
There are some spots I feel like are 'locked up' going into next year, I'm not sure 2B is, and if you really want to go into a year where you SHOULD be making that jump with a 'let's throw all these guys against a wall and see who sticks'.
I'm curious if you have an idea in your mind for what's the threshold for viable SS defense?
You're absolutely right, they need to upgrade *somewhere*...and likely multi "wheres".
"Ben Chrington and the Multiwheres of Madness."
I'll definitely agree it's likely the plural version of somewhere as far as what needs to be upgraded.
I don't know if Cruz is the answer at shortstop. From what I've seen in the minors and his small sample size it would probably be no. I also believe currently he's still the best option there in the system.
In my head 2024 is probably the year you make that decision to move him or stick with him there, the only issue with that is that was based on him playing in 2023.
Pushing that decision back to 2025 probably isn't the best idea if you are putting yourself in position to compete for a playoff spot this upcoming season.
I think you want to give that guy as many opportunities as possible because the ceiling is so high, and the team has been willing to sacrifice defense for the sake of offense at more than one position. I'm just not sure when enough would be enough for them, or who even would be the replacement.
Long story short, I'm glad I don't make these kind of decisions. Only thing I know if they don't go into 2024 with more of a contingency plan at short, it will be a big L for the front office, even more than them not having a clear back up going into 2023.
Love your perspective, Murph.
What's the over/under for guys getting 2b tryouts the last couple of seasons? 12?
The only 2 guys I think have a shot are Triolo and Peguero. I'd start Triolo next season at 2b, with Peguero starting in AAA. The kid obviously needs more seasoning, and he only has played 7games in AAA. Ben has a tendency to rush his kids and it could be detrimental to their futures. Look at guys like Cutch, Marte, Walker, Hayes they all spend ample time in AAA. This isn't a race.
That said, an infield of 1b (FA or trade), Triolo @ 2b, Hayes @ 3b and Cruz @ SS should be a pretty solid squad. I'm completely over Bae, I'm hoping he gets DFA'd this winter. There's no upside with him...just a little slap hitter that can't play defense.
2023 Pirates I'd probably give the infield a C- and that's heavily swayed by Hayes. Cherington did nothing to address SS after Cruz went down. Stevie Wonder could see that Castro and Marcano can't play the position.
Hopefully learning the lesson that "check the box" development doesn't work in the reality of a 162 game season.
Overall grade: D-
Solid teams are built with strength up the middle. Bucs certainly didn't have that at SS or 2b (catching was OK, CF was also meh). Hayes saves this mark from being an overall F. My grades:
1b: C+ (B+ for defense, C- for offense)
2b: F (bottom 3 in both offense and defense. One could make an argument for F- if that was a thing)
SS: F (bottom 5 in both offense and defense)
3b: A- (A+ for defense, B for offense)
B for me. Joe and santana platoon at next year is probably at least a B. Hayes' second half gives him an A despite the slow start. Honestly, triolo surpassed any expectations that i had so A for him as well. MIF was a mess as everyone mentioned, but we definitely learned a lot of who is not the answer lol, I think a hodgepodge of cruz, peggy, triolo, and maybe Bae (booooooo, just my opinion) is probably what they roll with next year and that has a chance to be average or much much more
A lot of blue started popping up on Santana’s percentile rankings per Statcast. I think he’s pretty much a gamble at this point, not too mention that he was a more efficient hitter against LHP similar to Joe. Interesting note on Santana, his xHR total this year was considerably higher in Cincinnati. Not surprising given the ballpark’s reputation, but it was materially higher relative to other parks around the league. If the Reds end up parting ways with Votto, I could see them pursue Santana this off-season as well.
My 2024 IF:
1B - Santana (Bring him back! 33 doubles, 23 homers and great D)
2B - Peguero (No one really staked their claim, but I liked Peggy's audition best)
SS - Cruz (Hope the ankle doesn't impact his play/ceiling too much)
3B - Hayes (GG + MVP Votes if he can keep up his 2nd half surge)
Next up:
Triolo (I like him best as a utility guy - Josh Harrison 2.0)
Bae (Speed & defense guy that stopped stealing bases halfway through the season & never really impressed on D)
Joe (Perfectly good short side platoon for either 1B or LF/RF)
JT412
Yes. Why did Bae just STOP stealing bases.
Substack readers want to know.
Gave them a B. A for Hayes, incomplete for Cruz, B+ for Santana while he was here. D for non-Santana 1Bs, Cs for the young 2Bs, with some hope that at least 1 or 2 can put it all together next year.
I gave the IF a D. Every player who appeared at 2B or SS had a negative WAR, except Oneil Cruz. That includes: Bae, Gonzales, Peguero, Castro, Marcano, Alika, Mathias, Owings, Capra. That's terrible and nearly impossible. Hayes produced a quality 4.0 WAR season. Triolo produced a surprising 2.1 WAR. Santana had a nice 1.6 WAR in his time with PIT (2.7 overall). Joe and Rivas chipped in. Choi was a failure, but worth a shot. So all in 3B was a significant strength, 1B was passable, and 2B and SS were disasters. Perhaps D+ or C- was the fairest grade.
Fwiw, fWAR by position:
1B - 10th
2B - 29th
3B - 3rd
SS - 30th
A lot of the 1B ranking is Joe. For some reason, probably just by chance, he hit way better playing there than in the OF.
Obviously, the middle IF was horrible. A lot of it was the defense before Peguero and Williams came along. It was Hedges-offense level atrocious.
C
Hayes had a B+, Cruz an incomplete, Triolo a B, and bunch of C and D for the rest.
1B - C
2B - D
SS - D
3B - A
This factoring both offense and defense. Overall a C.
Obviously losing Cruz for basically the entire season hurt badly, but so did losing Santana at the trade deadline.
The more I think about it, the more likely it seems Davis will eventually be moved to 1B. Even though this will minimize the value of his arm, it will likely be the place on the diamond his glove diminishes his defensive shortcomings the most.
I predict Santana will be back on team this winter, and Davis will be the starting 1B in ‘25.
Santana’s Statcast metrics are in free fall mode; his percentile rankings on expected stats are bluer than they’ve ever been in his career. Also, his barrel %, hard hit %, and EV were well below league average. This epitomizes the definition of decline, especially when considering his age. I like the man, but do not like the player. The Pirates need to do better at 1B.
It sure would be nice to have a better bat than Santana at 1B w/out sacrificing too much on the defensive end. I just don’t think it will happen.
If what Hayes showed at the plate this year becomes a consistent thing that's a pretty huge deal.
Call me crazy, but I’d be perfectly fine with a Joe/Choi platoon next year at 1B. Then, spend the bulk of my earmarked FA money on UPgrading the rotation and bullpen. Maybe if I’m real lucky and do my homework, I can find an above average CF that can hit LHP to platoon with Suwinski.
I’m ok with that, a RH hitter for CF to partner with Jack, Michael Taylor!
hoping for a Triolo & Endy platoon
By doing this, you're taking 2 outstanding defenders and placing them at the very bottom of the defensive spectrum.
You cray cray.
We need a legit bopper at 1B. I say Santana is the minimum standard for position. A Choi/Joe platoon is likely negative WAR.
Santana is aight, but going into next year with him as your only 1B would be colossal mistake.
Colossal? I’ll agree with it being a mistake, but not colossal.
Jase Bowen is writing his name onto the list of Players to Watch in ST 2024. To me it was a near-perfect evening in that he had the game-winning HR in the 9th to cap a 2 for 4 night, 3 RBI, and a Walk. The HR according to an AFL Report was 106 mph off the bat and traveled 450 feet to LC.
I gave it a 'C'. And aside from Hayes I'd go 'D' or 'D+'. Losing Cruz was a big blow, obviously. Next year will be better, assuming Cruz returns to form. And if we can get a competent 1B we could be in the 'B' area, IMHO.
Hayes gets a B+ So does Triolo, a master of the infield. Cruz - the great unknown.. Otherwise prospects hoping to advance. Pegeuro seems the most promising of the rest. Personally, I'm rooting hard for Tucu.
Again, some flashes of brilliance, but mediocre in totality. Potential to be a B+ if all cylinders hit this year, but I do not expect it to be finely tuned.