Kind of sad Palacios got so many innings.. we really had no better options than a minor league rule 5 selection? CSN? No other OF prospects on the horizon either..
C. Reynolds & Suwinski were both good, but need to be (& should) better next season. McCutchen was fine & will be back, but that clogs up the DH spot. Davis should improve in year 2, but didn’t look comfortable in RF at all.
I think we desperately need a CF that can provide some defensive value. 10 & 65 are much better in the corners and an elite CF makes everyone else’s job much easier.
An elite defensive CF even in a short sided platoon or late defensive sub would be a huge addition. A player like Patche from Philly could be acquired fairly cheap. I'm sure there are others out there as well.
Jase Bowen continues to impress in the AFL. Is it a fluke or is this kid playing at a much higher level than expected? Should the Pirates put him on the fast track for CF in ST? Defensively he can compete with anyone being considered for the opportunity to claim the Pirates CF position. But can he hit? Of course, how well can all of the others, except for Bae, hit? Is it worth the Pirates seeking a FA CF during the off season? Lots of questions, few answers.
I think the Pirates may go with LH hitting Bae and RH hitting Jared Triolo. Anybody patrolling CF taking fungo's in Pirate City WTM?
Jack Suwinski was a positive-value centerfielder and Oneil Cruz was the worst defender in baseball making this scenario the perfect example of how ridiculous this entire concept of whether or not a guy "can" play a certain position has gotten.
Most people will probably rate these positions as a “C” and I suppose I’ll have to agree. However a “C” suggests a passing grade, and I’m not sure that’s warranted just yet. Are we grading on a curve and if so what’s the comparison group. Are we comparing them to other Pirate outfields of the recent past or to the outfields of other current and past major league teams?
McCutchen as the DH probably deserves a “B-“ given his production as compared to other hitters on the Pirates, but if compared to the DH of other major league teams a “C” would probably make more sense. Reynolds should get a “B” for his overall play, although he can play better than he did in ‘23. Joe’s a utility player and not much else. He’s okay as an occasional fill-in but is not an every day player.
Suwinski as the CF can still go either way. In some stretches he can be a “B+ or even an “A” but in other stretches he’s a “D-“ or “F” and unfortunately the latter periods seem to last longer. He must become more consistently good or at least fairly good and avoid those awful stretches. He needs to be more aggressive at the plate but that might mean fewer walks, which is what led to his good OBP. He still has a lot to prove as a hitter, but I suppose if compared to other Pirate hitters he deserves a passing grade.
The other outfield position whether it’s Bae in center or Davis, Andujar, Palacios or someone else in right has to be an “Incomplete.” There’s no way of knowing what you’re gonna get because the sample size isn’t sufficient. The Pirates need another consistent power hitting outfielder. That might be Davis or Andujar or maybe Gorski if he gets a chance to play but for now it’s an unknown and can’t really be graded.
Overall I suppose you have to give this group a “C”, but I believe that’s actually being pretty generous. It could still go either way from average depending on the developmental path some of the younger guys take and whether BC decides to buy or trade for another outfielder.
Anyway, to the post's question, I give a C-. Basically, Reynolds, Suwinski, and Cutch are all average-to-OK, but they got essentially nothing from anybody else. Joe was OK, and better than I expected, but he was basically 4th OF material. There simply was no 3rd OF (indeed, the WAR for everyone other than Reynolds-Suwinski-Joe was -1.2).
What does that mean? It means that, whatever people think the DH is, it isn't that. Unless you think the DH is a player who hits about league average and provides no other value. Only 11 teams got a wRC+ over 110 from their DH position; 6 got less than 90. The median team got about half a win out of the DH position, and even if you want to quibble about the defensive adjustment for a guy who doesn't play defense, I don't think anyone is under the illusion that hitting like a 2B without doing anything else is doing a ton to help the team win.
Just 7 teams got 2 wins or more out of the position, and only 3 got 3 or more. In terms of actual individuals—all of the above numbers are team-wide, so include lots of guys like Joe who get a few random starts but aren't DHs by trade—I count 18 who got any significant time as DH and hit above wRC+ 110 (Cutch, at 112, was 18th). If you raise the bar to 300 PAs as DH, there's only 14 guys in the whole league, and 5 of them sucked (wRC+ under 100). So 9 guys in all of MLB who even resemble what the DH was supposed to be (and I'd argue wRC+ 110 is a low bar for that).
Your idea of what the DH "was supposed to be" seems to be the problem.
The point of the Designated Hitter is to replace the pitcher from hitting. That's it. That's the inarguable definition.
Tt's also then inarguable that all 30 teams benefit from having a Designated Hitter. No club comes even close to being so bad that the pitcher would be an improvement.
Your implication of what a DH is "supposed" to be is based on the decades over which only 15 of the positions, at most, existed in the world. Filter your list above to 15 and you have exactly the position you expected it to be.
Expansion of the position in the NL now doubles the number of jobs, and as we see there simply aren't that many plus or better hitters out there who can't field. Instead, those clubs who don't have a true DH just roll another starter through as means of flooding the bullpen and giving a bat the day off from the field.
Thought experiment: would the average team be better off with a lineup of 8 batters?
Again, the median team gets wRC+ 102 out of the position, and that's also the rough average of the middle 10 teams. 10 teams got less than wRC+ 95. So it's a basic bell curve centered at just above average.
Would a typical lineup be better off with one more league-average hitter, or with turning over after 8 batters? My inclination is that the latter is better, although it will vary with each team's makeup. But look at a team like the pre-deadline Mets, which had 5-6 excellent hitters, a few light-hitting disappointments, and a mediocre DH. Would you rather have Vogelbach bat 4 times, or get 4 more PAs for the 5-6 (much) better hitters at the top of the order?
I think that's a more common condition than a team that's so top-heavy (eg the '05 Pirates) that one more average bat meaningfully helps.
Your logic makes perfect sense of comparing an 8 batter line-up (without the DH) to a 9 batter line-up (with a DH). Even though some still think the DH is just used to replace the pitcher from hitting, that is not how many of the analytic teams use the DH. They use it as way to rest players. It is not unusual to have a team have 10 to 15 players share the DH spot throughout the season.
No use discussing removing the DH, it’s not happening.
Seems to me there’s a market inefficiency that can be exploited, but I also believe it’s damn hard to sit on the bench for 45-60 minutes than come up to hit. Not many guys can do it effectively. So says the data.
That’s why they should allow cheating…err, PED’s. Hard to argue the last 15 years of baseball have been better than the 15 before it.
Speaking of which, I just read an article in Golf Digest that claims a few PGA Tour Pro’s have improved by taking plant based medication, including micro-dosing psilocybin (magic mushrooms)!
The article claims it helps them focus and relax.
Surprisingly this drug, even though it’s a schedule 1 narcotic and illegal in most of the USA, is not on the WDA list of banned substances. Thus the PGA Tour doesn’t test for it. Not that they really could since it leaves the system in approximately 36 hours.
If it is true that Andujar will not be back, that is too bad in my opinion. His only major league season with over 45 games he hit .297 avg 25 homers 97 rbis, finishing second in rookie of the year to Ohtani where 5 of the 30 voters chose Andujar over Ohtani. His minor league season this year he hit .338 with a .404 obp and 86 RBIs.
Forget all of those stats and forget he is a better right fielder than critics give him credit for, he is an RBI Machine. His RBI rate was just as good in his small sample in the majors this year as it was in the minors. Guys with at least 84 at bats, here were the RBI rate leaders in each league for the major leagues in 2023. (rbis/ ab)
NL 1) JD Martinez, 2) Matt Olson, 3) Max Muncy, 4) Miguel Andujar
I gave the OF a C. Reynolds had a WAR of 2.5. Suwinski had a WAR of 2.2 Cutch had 1.5. Joe chipped in positively. Andujar was 0.1 in his small sample. The other were all negative, including Palacios. Henry Davis was a big negative at -1.4. That's the definition of average. Thus the C.
I rated it a C. Reynolds did well as a LF and Suwinski did well as a RF. No CF so the skills of Ji-Hwan Bae were identified/recognized and he did a VG job in CF as well as at 2B. There were others in the upper minors who could have had the opportunity to play CF, but they failed to call enough attention to themselves to merit being called up. 'Cutch was a very solid DH, especially in getting on base. Connor Joe also pitched in having his best MLB season at the plate, and Carlos Santana at 1B/DH also did well.
Other than that 40-game or so stretch in May/June where Reynolds, Suwinski, and many others went ice cold, I’d generally agree with your assessment. Unfortunately that stretch of play doomed their season.
On their own, BRey and Jack are passable, each ranking 12th on FG for starters in LF and CF, respectively. Room for improvement, but not a black hole - except when they don't play those positions. Then we stink. RF... ugh. What to do with Davis? Seems to me Andujar will likely be released. I can't see them cutting Palacios, he's ok as a 4th OF and had a respectable 2nd half (.739 OPS). Cutch fell off in 2nd half, but is still serviceable. It would also be a PR nightmare for BC to move him.
Kind of sad Palacios got so many innings.. we really had no better options than a minor league rule 5 selection? CSN? No other OF prospects on the horizon either..
CSN was the Opening Day starting RF'er. He proceeded to K over 43% of the time.
yeah, too bad he couldn’t do more with his chance. also bad that there were no other options in the system
i kept telling myself that all season and he kept getting game winning hits and homeruns
i don’t mind him as a AAA depth piece & good for him for making the most of his opportunity.
the fact we had no better options preseason is the sad part
C. Reynolds & Suwinski were both good, but need to be (& should) better next season. McCutchen was fine & will be back, but that clogs up the DH spot. Davis should improve in year 2, but didn’t look comfortable in RF at all.
I think we desperately need a CF that can provide some defensive value. 10 & 65 are much better in the corners and an elite CF makes everyone else’s job much easier.
An elite defensive CF even in a short sided platoon or late defensive sub would be a huge addition. A player like Patche from Philly could be acquired fairly cheap. I'm sure there are others out there as well.
Jase Bowen continues to impress in the AFL. Is it a fluke or is this kid playing at a much higher level than expected? Should the Pirates put him on the fast track for CF in ST? Defensively he can compete with anyone being considered for the opportunity to claim the Pirates CF position. But can he hit? Of course, how well can all of the others, except for Bae, hit? Is it worth the Pirates seeking a FA CF during the off season? Lots of questions, few answers.
I think the Pirates may go with LH hitting Bae and RH hitting Jared Triolo. Anybody patrolling CF taking fungo's in Pirate City WTM?
Quality of AFL pitching is probably worse at this point than what he saw in high-A. Nobody sends top arms after a full-season workload.
Love to see him succeed but doubt this changes anything we knew about him already.
Keith Law just did a roundup of his visit to the AFL and did not mention Bowen. He did give a shout out to Ercolani, however.
Fangraphs filters down per position...
LF - Pirates are at 2.3 fWAR, which is 15th in baseball. C
CF - Pirates are at 2.5 fWAR, which is 19th in baseball. C-
RF - Pirates are at 0.5 fWAR, which is 25th in baseball. D
DH - Pirates are at 1.2 fWAR, which is 15th in baseball. C
This is an incredibly mediocre group. However, adding a legit 3-win CF to the mix and moving Suwinski to RF would make this an above average group.
These are always fun exercises Wilbur puts together.
Jack Suwinski was a positive-value centerfielder and Oneil Cruz was the worst defender in baseball making this scenario the perfect example of how ridiculous this entire concept of whether or not a guy "can" play a certain position has gotten.
I guess they'll roll with Davis in RF... It was inevitable anyhow.
my expectation as well, for better or worse.
I think your opportunity in CF was last year in KK, pretty sure he signed a 2-year deal and is likely not an option.
Most people will probably rate these positions as a “C” and I suppose I’ll have to agree. However a “C” suggests a passing grade, and I’m not sure that’s warranted just yet. Are we grading on a curve and if so what’s the comparison group. Are we comparing them to other Pirate outfields of the recent past or to the outfields of other current and past major league teams?
McCutchen as the DH probably deserves a “B-“ given his production as compared to other hitters on the Pirates, but if compared to the DH of other major league teams a “C” would probably make more sense. Reynolds should get a “B” for his overall play, although he can play better than he did in ‘23. Joe’s a utility player and not much else. He’s okay as an occasional fill-in but is not an every day player.
Suwinski as the CF can still go either way. In some stretches he can be a “B+ or even an “A” but in other stretches he’s a “D-“ or “F” and unfortunately the latter periods seem to last longer. He must become more consistently good or at least fairly good and avoid those awful stretches. He needs to be more aggressive at the plate but that might mean fewer walks, which is what led to his good OBP. He still has a lot to prove as a hitter, but I suppose if compared to other Pirate hitters he deserves a passing grade.
The other outfield position whether it’s Bae in center or Davis, Andujar, Palacios or someone else in right has to be an “Incomplete.” There’s no way of knowing what you’re gonna get because the sample size isn’t sufficient. The Pirates need another consistent power hitting outfielder. That might be Davis or Andujar or maybe Gorski if he gets a chance to play but for now it’s an unknown and can’t really be graded.
Overall I suppose you have to give this group a “C”, but I believe that’s actually being pretty generous. It could still go either way from average depending on the developmental path some of the younger guys take and whether BC decides to buy or trade for another outfielder.
Anyway, to the post's question, I give a C-. Basically, Reynolds, Suwinski, and Cutch are all average-to-OK, but they got essentially nothing from anybody else. Joe was OK, and better than I expected, but he was basically 4th OF material. There simply was no 3rd OF (indeed, the WAR for everyone other than Reynolds-Suwinski-Joe was -1.2).
I'll say what I always say: the DH is a myth.
What does that mean? It means that, whatever people think the DH is, it isn't that. Unless you think the DH is a player who hits about league average and provides no other value. Only 11 teams got a wRC+ over 110 from their DH position; 6 got less than 90. The median team got about half a win out of the DH position, and even if you want to quibble about the defensive adjustment for a guy who doesn't play defense, I don't think anyone is under the illusion that hitting like a 2B without doing anything else is doing a ton to help the team win.
Just 7 teams got 2 wins or more out of the position, and only 3 got 3 or more. In terms of actual individuals—all of the above numbers are team-wide, so include lots of guys like Joe who get a few random starts but aren't DHs by trade—I count 18 who got any significant time as DH and hit above wRC+ 110 (Cutch, at 112, was 18th). If you raise the bar to 300 PAs as DH, there's only 14 guys in the whole league, and 5 of them sucked (wRC+ under 100). So 9 guys in all of MLB who even resemble what the DH was supposed to be (and I'd argue wRC+ 110 is a low bar for that).
Like I said, the DH is a myth.
Your idea of what the DH "was supposed to be" seems to be the problem.
The point of the Designated Hitter is to replace the pitcher from hitting. That's it. That's the inarguable definition.
Tt's also then inarguable that all 30 teams benefit from having a Designated Hitter. No club comes even close to being so bad that the pitcher would be an improvement.
Your implication of what a DH is "supposed" to be is based on the decades over which only 15 of the positions, at most, existed in the world. Filter your list above to 15 and you have exactly the position you expected it to be.
Expansion of the position in the NL now doubles the number of jobs, and as we see there simply aren't that many plus or better hitters out there who can't field. Instead, those clubs who don't have a true DH just roll another starter through as means of flooding the bullpen and giving a bat the day off from the field.
Thought experiment: would the average team be better off with a lineup of 8 batters?
Again, the median team gets wRC+ 102 out of the position, and that's also the rough average of the middle 10 teams. 10 teams got less than wRC+ 95. So it's a basic bell curve centered at just above average.
Would a typical lineup be better off with one more league-average hitter, or with turning over after 8 batters? My inclination is that the latter is better, although it will vary with each team's makeup. But look at a team like the pre-deadline Mets, which had 5-6 excellent hitters, a few light-hitting disappointments, and a mediocre DH. Would you rather have Vogelbach bat 4 times, or get 4 more PAs for the 5-6 (much) better hitters at the top of the order?
I think that's a more common condition than a team that's so top-heavy (eg the '05 Pirates) that one more average bat meaningfully helps.
Your logic makes perfect sense of comparing an 8 batter line-up (without the DH) to a 9 batter line-up (with a DH). Even though some still think the DH is just used to replace the pitcher from hitting, that is not how many of the analytic teams use the DH. They use it as way to rest players. It is not unusual to have a team have 10 to 15 players share the DH spot throughout the season.
What if, now hear me out, you were just allowed to bat your best hitter 9 times. ;)
No use discussing removing the DH, it’s not happening.
Seems to me there’s a market inefficiency that can be exploited, but I also believe it’s damn hard to sit on the bench for 45-60 minutes than come up to hit. Not many guys can do it effectively. So says the data.
There just aren't that many plus or better bats out there without a position. That's it.
Baseball is really really hard!
That’s why they should allow cheating…err, PED’s. Hard to argue the last 15 years of baseball have been better than the 15 before it.
Speaking of which, I just read an article in Golf Digest that claims a few PGA Tour Pro’s have improved by taking plant based medication, including micro-dosing psilocybin (magic mushrooms)!
The article claims it helps them focus and relax.
Surprisingly this drug, even though it’s a schedule 1 narcotic and illegal in most of the USA, is not on the WDA list of banned substances. Thus the PGA Tour doesn’t test for it. Not that they really could since it leaves the system in approximately 36 hours.
I wonder if this has made its way to MLB yet?
Ha! Doc Ellis had 'em beat by a mile.
Speaking from personal experience on the matter, it’s a whole lot more than a mile.
That's not Beisbol.
If it is true that Andujar will not be back, that is too bad in my opinion. His only major league season with over 45 games he hit .297 avg 25 homers 97 rbis, finishing second in rookie of the year to Ohtani where 5 of the 30 voters chose Andujar over Ohtani. His minor league season this year he hit .338 with a .404 obp and 86 RBIs.
Forget all of those stats and forget he is a better right fielder than critics give him credit for, he is an RBI Machine. His RBI rate was just as good in his small sample in the majors this year as it was in the minors. Guys with at least 84 at bats, here were the RBI rate leaders in each league for the major leagues in 2023. (rbis/ ab)
NL 1) JD Martinez, 2) Matt Olson, 3) Max Muncy, 4) Miguel Andujar
AL 1) Royce Lewis, 2) Yordan Alvarez
Primary Starting Pirate OFs in Post Season Years 1970-2023
1970 Stargell, Matty Alou, Clemente
1971, 72 Stargell, Oliver, Clemente
1974, 75 Zisk, Oliver, Parker
1979 Bill Robinson, Moreno, Parker
1990,91,92 Bonds, Van Slyke, Bonilla
2013 Marte, McCutchen, Snider
2014, 15 Marte, McCutchen, Polanco
So all we are missing is a collection of HOFs, MVPs and batting champs and a bucket full of Gold Gloves.
I gave the OF a C. Reynolds had a WAR of 2.5. Suwinski had a WAR of 2.2 Cutch had 1.5. Joe chipped in positively. Andujar was 0.1 in his small sample. The other were all negative, including Palacios. Henry Davis was a big negative at -1.4. That's the definition of average. Thus the C.
C+
Reynolds a B-, just needs to be more consistent.
Suwinski a B-, needs to shorten the cold stretches.
Joe a C, got overexposed playing everyday, his numbers would be better in a platoon with the occasional start against RHP.
Palacios a C+, gets a plus because clutch hitting is a skill in my mind.
Davis a D/F repeat, got thrown into the deep end with a weighted vest. The organization put the player in a position to fail.
Bae a C-, has some potential in centerfield, needs more experience.
Andujar a B, had a slow start but hit the rest of the season.
Cutch a B-, still a professional hitter.
The rest an incomplete.
I rated it a C. Reynolds did well as a LF and Suwinski did well as a RF. No CF so the skills of Ji-Hwan Bae were identified/recognized and he did a VG job in CF as well as at 2B. There were others in the upper minors who could have had the opportunity to play CF, but they failed to call enough attention to themselves to merit being called up. 'Cutch was a very solid DH, especially in getting on base. Connor Joe also pitched in having his best MLB season at the plate, and Carlos Santana at 1B/DH also did well.
Other than that 40-game or so stretch in May/June where Reynolds, Suwinski, and many others went ice cold, I’d generally agree with your assessment. Unfortunately that stretch of play doomed their season.
I give it a C-.
On their own, BRey and Jack are passable, each ranking 12th on FG for starters in LF and CF, respectively. Room for improvement, but not a black hole - except when they don't play those positions. Then we stink. RF... ugh. What to do with Davis? Seems to me Andujar will likely be released. I can't see them cutting Palacios, he's ok as a 4th OF and had a respectable 2nd half (.739 OPS). Cutch fell off in 2nd half, but is still serviceable. It would also be a PR nightmare for BC to move him.
B-
Will Suwinski continue his late season fitting against lefties. Who is the regular 3rd OF? Only The Shadow knows...
A lot of room for improvement here; BR needs to be better, JS can’t hit LHP, and RF was a virtual blackhole.