Here is a question for the experts. Does Ryan Borucki still have a chance of being a starting pitcher? or was he too good in the pen that the Pirates don't want to mess him up? He held his own as a starter when he broke in the with the Blue Jays and this year was dominant with the Pirates. 33 innings 18 hits 4 walks (4-0) 1.64 ERA.
I gave the SPs a C. I almost gave them a B to account for the idea that Brubaker got hurt, Velazquez got hurt, and Hill got traded. But nevertheless, even with those issues, there just wasnt enough depth that could pitch passable innings. Keller had 2.9 WAR. Oviedo had 2.0 WAR. Rich Hill had 0.5 WAR in his time with the Pirates. Ortiz had 0.5. Roansy had -0.5. Bido was -0.4. Priester was -0.9. Velazquez was 0.8. Andre Jackson was 0.6.
B-, my highest grade. This unit overcame a shit storm, and yet the team finished well ahead of previous year, it wasn’t the offense, it wasn’t the coaching nor front office, so I have to give it to the pitching.
The Bucs rotation ranked 27th in fWAR, which would merit a solid F. However, they actually closer to 8th place than they are to 30th and at least have a couple of guys to build on, so 2024 should be better. While Brubaker and Velasquez are basically 5th starters, they should at least provide some stability and allow the middle innings guys to be used more appropriately than as openers/bulk guys. I don't know if there's a transcendent force out there in FA like AJ Burnett, or a reclamation project that will be as effective as LIriano or Happ. I"m not seeing one among the list of FAs. So I guess they're gonna need to compete for the handful of worthwhile (and expensive) options that do exist. Alternatively, they might get creative in a trade situation, to the point of offering assets like BRey and Davis to a team strong on young pitching but w/o much offense.
I don’t think there’s any way they trade BR less than a year after the contract. While I’m a fan of Hank, I wouldn’t be opposed to him being part of a deal to bring back an arm. Probably difficult though, considering his value ain’t that high at the moment.
Starting pitching was the perfect crap storm this year.
The Brubaker injury came out of nowhere and crushed them. He is not great but is consistent and would have given 180 reliable innings. Then Burrows was supposed to be next man up from Indy. Then Velasquez went down.
The development machine failed miserably with Roansy C. and Ortiz plus Priester was not ready.
2024 looks concerning too. However, the irony is that the system is stacked with pitchers. Per MLB Pipeline 13 of the top 15 prospects are now pitchers. IF Skenes becomes the super ace, then between Bubba C,. and Solometo we should get another high quality guy, hopefully both, Priester, J. Jones, Burrow, Harrington and Barco have potential. If Oviedo is for real, anybody of the suspects bounces back or any lottery tickets break out a very good winning pitching staff is two or three years away.
The long and immediate term organization issue is a lack of OF/1b power among guys that can actually play defense and not strike out 25-40% of the time. That area is pathetically weak.
The Bucs need to pursue baseball trades for young power by using the MiLB pitching and middle infield surplus.
C-. Keller and Oviedo were good, but not great. Contreras, Priester & Ortiz disappointed. Brubaker and Burrows injuries really hurt them. The BP games went better than expected.
They need 2 starters - probably one “legit” FA & a rental. I’ll call them Wade Miley & Kyle Gibson.
Keller-Miley-Oviedo-Gibson-Ortiz?
Add in Skenes, Brubaker, Jones, Burrows to the mix mid season.
This one I gave an F, based on how far short they fell of what they needed to do. This was supposed to be the team’s strength, relatively speaking, but it was anything but. Having all three top pitching prospects fail as miserably as they did is a signal failure.
Let's keep in mind, the prospects, especially Roansy and Ortiz, didn't simply fail to develop. They went significantly backward from where they were last year. As a group, the rotation lost ground, a lot of it, from last year. No other segment of the team did that.
Did the rotation lose ground or did it pretty much stay in the same spot, albeit with different players? In 2022, the top three starters were Q, Keller, and JT. This year, the top 3 were Hill, Keller, Oviedo. Hill and Q are the solid innings eaters who were in the rotation for about 60% of the season. Q was a bit better than Hill there. Bru and Oviedo ended up having pretty much the same season value-wise, although they went about it in different ways (Bru strikes out more, walks fewer, allows more homers). And then Keller, who looked like the same Mitch Keller for the first 1/3 of last season before he became much better. This year, we got more of that better version of Keller. All of this is before we even get to the disappointment that’s the young arms, which was a camp Keller was in less than two years ago.
For the record here, I’m not advocating for a B or C (I voted C, but my fat fingers wanted a C-/D+). Even with the massive disappointment of Quinn and Co., that doesn’t warrant a failing grade given what Keller and Oviedo did. Giving this rotation an F feels more like a reaction to being letdown by the young arms when our expectations were higher.
You want a rotation that deserves an F? Look at the 2021 Bucs. That’s an F.
Certainly pitching has to get better and, if the Pirates plan to spend money during the off season, acquiring quality pitching should be at the top of the list. Having said that, I do not believe the 2023 pitching deserves a failing grade.
Three potential starters went down at the beginning of the year and the lose of even one isn’t easy to replace. They patched together a staff that absolutely had many holes in it, but despite that they were able to win games they wouldn’t have without some pitchers stepping up. I’d give the staff a solid “C” but obviously that’s still not good enough.
I also don’t see the young pitching prospects as having failed. They struggled at times but young pitchers nearly always struggle when first facing major league hitters. Skenes will have his struggles when he gets to Pittsburgh, and anyone expecting otherwise is living in a fantasy. They need to learn and develop, but saying they failed sounds like an over reaction to me. Not living up to your expectations does not constitute a failure.
Keller C+ looks like an ace one day, gets pounded another. Needs to be consistent.
Oviedo C+ would have a great game, then a stinker. Needs to find the strike zone consistently. I'll give him credit for battling after a bad or long inning.
Injuries FFS, not blaming the players but for f#&$ sake, we can't have nice things.
Regression F, Contreras, Ortiz, Priester. Still time to get back their prior stuff but times running out for Contreras.
Stamina F, several guys look decent once through the order, not so much a second time.
Opener D, an okay strategy in an emergency here and there through the season, not as a weekly occurrence.
The pirates need 2 or 3 starters for 2024, preferably a top of the rotation starter. It won't be cheap. A bounce back starter or 2. They need inning eaters to get to the bullpen.
I hope Ben was serious about the off-season plans to upgrade the staff via trade or free agency.
A big trade, Toronto: Vlad Jr and Manoha pirates give up 4 to 6 prospects or bounce back pieces. Or Cease from the White Sox.
A fair trade that makes sense for both teams, Cleveland: Quantrell for Joe, maybe get a lottery ticket back as well. Or similar trade, most likely to happen.
A bounce back or eating a bad contract, Washington: Corbin and lottery ticket or two for TonyG and a mid tier pitching prospect. Won't happen unless the Nats eat a lot of the money owed Corbin.
The big free agent, probably not happening. Prove me wrong Bob and get Yamamoto.
The mid tier, Kyle Gibson or the like. 50% chance.
The bounce back, Severino or the like. 80% chance and probably a couple.
"Spahn and Sain and pray for rain"! Haven't heard a reference to that old saying in years.
Did some checking on Jase Bowen, and he is closing in on 300 games over the past two years - 160 games in A, A+, and Australia Winter ball in 2022, and 132 so far in A+, AA, and now the AFL for 2023. He's doing very well and I compared him to some stats from players in the AFL in 2022 who played in MLB in 2023
Bowen - 56 AB, slash of 375/444/625/1.069 OPS
Gonzales - 68 AB, slash of 279/351/500/851 OPS
Davis - 50 AB, slash of 260/435/440/875 OPS
Jordan Walker (St L) 77 AB, slash of 286/367/558/925 OPS
Heston Kjerstad (Bal) 98 AB, slash of 357/385/622/1.007 OPS
Bowen has been right around the Top 10 in OPS through the first half of the AFL season - got as high as 6th and is currently 9th. The biggest need of the Pirates going into 2024 is a RH hitting player who could play any of the OF positions, especially CF. Still young (will play almost all of 2024 as a 23 year old), but he is stacking up the games played and hitting much better than most of us expected.
For the Pirates in 2023, the Rotation, which at one time was Keller, Oviedo, Hill, Velasquez, and name your flavor for the 5th man was actually pretty good. Along with the solid BP, they were putting the Pirates in position to win games they did not have a chance to win in 2020, 2021, or 2022. It was probably low average compared to the other 30 teams, but solid average for the Pirates.
Keller and Oviedo return, and the best part of 2023 was the number of starts available to Ortiz, Bido, Contreras, and Priester - 43 by the count above. Dues paying in 2023 could result in much better performances in 2024. VV is a mystery and found something in 2023 - does he return from injury ready to pitch that well in 2024? He very well could need another opportunity from the Pirates to become a "get" for a contender at or before the trade deadline, and, BRU could return by early June.
Forgot to mention I gave them a B - mostly for the front half of the season. Injuries put them in a bind, and Contreras and Ortiz were not able to give us what they had in 2022. Priester is a horse and he reminds me of Bob Friend - 9 straight years where he averaged about 37 Starts a year for the Pirates, and how's this for IP - 314, 277, 274, 235, 276, 236, 262, 269, 240, and 222!
I feel like that’s disrespecting Friend lol. Priester has a long way to go to just be a serviceable back end starter... better be spending the offseason with Keller at Tread.
I gave it a B (B-, actually) more for what it was initially and what it could have been without all the injuries. As it stands right now(10/19) I'd call it a C-. I have some optimism for the spring, mostly for the guys coming back from injuries and also with Skenes looming large. A couple solid additions to the rotation would be really helpful though. If we get some money to throw at FA's or via a trade for some of our more redundant players things could possibly be looking quite bright next spring. Let's hope for a fruitful winter season.
With the Jekyll and Hyde seasons of Keller and Oviedo, a legit contender would need 2-3 starters in front of those two. The rotation gives me the least amount of optimism heading into 2024. There are options, but I’m not confident you can see any of them as more than a #4 or #3 starter without squinting real hard. Let’s hope and pray they can sign a reclamation arm that turns into a frontline starter and several of these arms take steps forward next year.
Here is a question for the experts. Does Ryan Borucki still have a chance of being a starting pitcher? or was he too good in the pen that the Pirates don't want to mess him up? He held his own as a starter when he broke in the with the Blue Jays and this year was dominant with the Pirates. 33 innings 18 hits 4 walks (4-0) 1.64 ERA.
No shot its been 6 years since he was stretched out
He had a strong year out of the pen, but understand that came with an unsustainable
.210 BABIP
Def his ceiling, hope he can bring 80% of that effort before shelty wrecks him
ITS NOT UNLIKE HIM
I gave the SPs a C. I almost gave them a B to account for the idea that Brubaker got hurt, Velazquez got hurt, and Hill got traded. But nevertheless, even with those issues, there just wasnt enough depth that could pitch passable innings. Keller had 2.9 WAR. Oviedo had 2.0 WAR. Rich Hill had 0.5 WAR in his time with the Pirates. Ortiz had 0.5. Roansy had -0.5. Bido was -0.4. Priester was -0.9. Velazquez was 0.8. Andre Jackson was 0.6.
B-, my highest grade. This unit overcame a shit storm, and yet the team finished well ahead of previous year, it wasn’t the offense, it wasn’t the coaching nor front office, so I have to give it to the pitching.
The Bucs rotation ranked 27th in fWAR, which would merit a solid F. However, they actually closer to 8th place than they are to 30th and at least have a couple of guys to build on, so 2024 should be better. While Brubaker and Velasquez are basically 5th starters, they should at least provide some stability and allow the middle innings guys to be used more appropriately than as openers/bulk guys. I don't know if there's a transcendent force out there in FA like AJ Burnett, or a reclamation project that will be as effective as LIriano or Happ. I"m not seeing one among the list of FAs. So I guess they're gonna need to compete for the handful of worthwhile (and expensive) options that do exist. Alternatively, they might get creative in a trade situation, to the point of offering assets like BRey and Davis to a team strong on young pitching but w/o much offense.
I don’t think there’s any way they trade BR less than a year after the contract. While I’m a fan of Hank, I wouldn’t be opposed to him being part of a deal to bring back an arm. Probably difficult though, considering his value ain’t that high at the moment.
Value ain't that high at the moment
Draft a C #1 overall, give him 6.5M to sign
Let him catch 2 inn and trade him?
No it isn’t. But just because he’s drafted 1 overall and got 6.5M doesn’t mean he should be exempt from a trade.
Who is going to deliver that one to NUT?
Starting pitching was the perfect crap storm this year.
The Brubaker injury came out of nowhere and crushed them. He is not great but is consistent and would have given 180 reliable innings. Then Burrows was supposed to be next man up from Indy. Then Velasquez went down.
The development machine failed miserably with Roansy C. and Ortiz plus Priester was not ready.
2024 looks concerning too. However, the irony is that the system is stacked with pitchers. Per MLB Pipeline 13 of the top 15 prospects are now pitchers. IF Skenes becomes the super ace, then between Bubba C,. and Solometo we should get another high quality guy, hopefully both, Priester, J. Jones, Burrow, Harrington and Barco have potential. If Oviedo is for real, anybody of the suspects bounces back or any lottery tickets break out a very good winning pitching staff is two or three years away.
The long and immediate term organization issue is a lack of OF/1b power among guys that can actually play defense and not strike out 25-40% of the time. That area is pathetically weak.
The Bucs need to pursue baseball trades for young power by using the MiLB pitching and middle infield surplus.
C-. Keller and Oviedo were good, but not great. Contreras, Priester & Ortiz disappointed. Brubaker and Burrows injuries really hurt them. The BP games went better than expected.
They need 2 starters - probably one “legit” FA & a rental. I’ll call them Wade Miley & Kyle Gibson.
Keller-Miley-Oviedo-Gibson-Ortiz?
Add in Skenes, Brubaker, Jones, Burrows to the mix mid season.
This one I gave an F, based on how far short they fell of what they needed to do. This was supposed to be the team’s strength, relatively speaking, but it was anything but. Having all three top pitching prospects fail as miserably as they did is a signal failure.
I’m not sure how anyone could seriously give them an F considering Keller/Oviedo and what they did.
Let's keep in mind, the prospects, especially Roansy and Ortiz, didn't simply fail to develop. They went significantly backward from where they were last year. As a group, the rotation lost ground, a lot of it, from last year. No other segment of the team did that.
Did the rotation lose ground or did it pretty much stay in the same spot, albeit with different players? In 2022, the top three starters were Q, Keller, and JT. This year, the top 3 were Hill, Keller, Oviedo. Hill and Q are the solid innings eaters who were in the rotation for about 60% of the season. Q was a bit better than Hill there. Bru and Oviedo ended up having pretty much the same season value-wise, although they went about it in different ways (Bru strikes out more, walks fewer, allows more homers). And then Keller, who looked like the same Mitch Keller for the first 1/3 of last season before he became much better. This year, we got more of that better version of Keller. All of this is before we even get to the disappointment that’s the young arms, which was a camp Keller was in less than two years ago.
For the record here, I’m not advocating for a B or C (I voted C, but my fat fingers wanted a C-/D+). Even with the massive disappointment of Quinn and Co., that doesn’t warrant a failing grade given what Keller and Oviedo did. Giving this rotation an F feels more like a reaction to being letdown by the young arms when our expectations were higher.
You want a rotation that deserves an F? Look at the 2021 Bucs. That’s an F.
Certainly pitching has to get better and, if the Pirates plan to spend money during the off season, acquiring quality pitching should be at the top of the list. Having said that, I do not believe the 2023 pitching deserves a failing grade.
Three potential starters went down at the beginning of the year and the lose of even one isn’t easy to replace. They patched together a staff that absolutely had many holes in it, but despite that they were able to win games they wouldn’t have without some pitchers stepping up. I’d give the staff a solid “C” but obviously that’s still not good enough.
I also don’t see the young pitching prospects as having failed. They struggled at times but young pitchers nearly always struggle when first facing major league hitters. Skenes will have his struggles when he gets to Pittsburgh, and anyone expecting otherwise is living in a fantasy. They need to learn and develop, but saying they failed sounds like an over reaction to me. Not living up to your expectations does not constitute a failure.
I honestly can’t believe they did as well as they did with this rotation...
Many thought that Roansy AND Ortiz were better suited to relief. I’m surprised you were so high on them. Priester was rushed. He’ll be fine.
Couldn’t agree more!
D+ a grade they don't like handing out.
Keller C+ looks like an ace one day, gets pounded another. Needs to be consistent.
Oviedo C+ would have a great game, then a stinker. Needs to find the strike zone consistently. I'll give him credit for battling after a bad or long inning.
Injuries FFS, not blaming the players but for f#&$ sake, we can't have nice things.
Regression F, Contreras, Ortiz, Priester. Still time to get back their prior stuff but times running out for Contreras.
Stamina F, several guys look decent once through the order, not so much a second time.
Opener D, an okay strategy in an emergency here and there through the season, not as a weekly occurrence.
The pirates need 2 or 3 starters for 2024, preferably a top of the rotation starter. It won't be cheap. A bounce back starter or 2. They need inning eaters to get to the bullpen.
I hope Ben was serious about the off-season plans to upgrade the staff via trade or free agency.
A big trade, Toronto: Vlad Jr and Manoha pirates give up 4 to 6 prospects or bounce back pieces. Or Cease from the White Sox.
A fair trade that makes sense for both teams, Cleveland: Quantrell for Joe, maybe get a lottery ticket back as well. Or similar trade, most likely to happen.
A bounce back or eating a bad contract, Washington: Corbin and lottery ticket or two for TonyG and a mid tier pitching prospect. Won't happen unless the Nats eat a lot of the money owed Corbin.
The big free agent, probably not happening. Prove me wrong Bob and get Yamamoto.
The mid tier, Kyle Gibson or the like. 50% chance.
The bounce back, Severino or the like. 80% chance and probably a couple.
Hank, Jared Jones, and a smaller third piece for Cease.
"Spahn and Sain and pray for rain"! Haven't heard a reference to that old saying in years.
Did some checking on Jase Bowen, and he is closing in on 300 games over the past two years - 160 games in A, A+, and Australia Winter ball in 2022, and 132 so far in A+, AA, and now the AFL for 2023. He's doing very well and I compared him to some stats from players in the AFL in 2022 who played in MLB in 2023
Bowen - 56 AB, slash of 375/444/625/1.069 OPS
Gonzales - 68 AB, slash of 279/351/500/851 OPS
Davis - 50 AB, slash of 260/435/440/875 OPS
Jordan Walker (St L) 77 AB, slash of 286/367/558/925 OPS
Heston Kjerstad (Bal) 98 AB, slash of 357/385/622/1.007 OPS
Bowen has been right around the Top 10 in OPS through the first half of the AFL season - got as high as 6th and is currently 9th. The biggest need of the Pirates going into 2024 is a RH hitting player who could play any of the OF positions, especially CF. Still young (will play almost all of 2024 as a 23 year old), but he is stacking up the games played and hitting much better than most of us expected.
For the Pirates in 2023, the Rotation, which at one time was Keller, Oviedo, Hill, Velasquez, and name your flavor for the 5th man was actually pretty good. Along with the solid BP, they were putting the Pirates in position to win games they did not have a chance to win in 2020, 2021, or 2022. It was probably low average compared to the other 30 teams, but solid average for the Pirates.
Keller and Oviedo return, and the best part of 2023 was the number of starts available to Ortiz, Bido, Contreras, and Priester - 43 by the count above. Dues paying in 2023 could result in much better performances in 2024. VV is a mystery and found something in 2023 - does he return from injury ready to pitch that well in 2024? He very well could need another opportunity from the Pirates to become a "get" for a contender at or before the trade deadline, and, BRU could return by early June.
Forgot to mention I gave them a B - mostly for the front half of the season. Injuries put them in a bind, and Contreras and Ortiz were not able to give us what they had in 2022. Priester is a horse and he reminds me of Bob Friend - 9 straight years where he averaged about 37 Starts a year for the Pirates, and how's this for IP - 314, 277, 274, 235, 276, 236, 262, 269, 240, and 222!
I feel like that’s disrespecting Friend lol. Priester has a long way to go to just be a serviceable back end starter... better be spending the offseason with Keller at Tread.
I gave it a B (B-, actually) more for what it was initially and what it could have been without all the injuries. As it stands right now(10/19) I'd call it a C-. I have some optimism for the spring, mostly for the guys coming back from injuries and also with Skenes looming large. A couple solid additions to the rotation would be really helpful though. If we get some money to throw at FA's or via a trade for some of our more redundant players things could possibly be looking quite bright next spring. Let's hope for a fruitful winter season.
With the Jekyll and Hyde seasons of Keller and Oviedo, a legit contender would need 2-3 starters in front of those two. The rotation gives me the least amount of optimism heading into 2024. There are options, but I’m not confident you can see any of them as more than a #4 or #3 starter without squinting real hard. Let’s hope and pray they can sign a reclamation arm that turns into a frontline starter and several of these arms take steps forward next year.