Pushing The Limits For Pirates Pitchers
As we enter the post-deadline stretch, the pitchers system wide are cruising past previous IP highs
*Numbers listed are as of the morning of 08/02/23
Part of the usual pitcher development discourse, is the increase of innings over the years in their development. It could mostly be a product of being three years removed from the shortened season, with no minor league season, but it also appears the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to see a slew of arms blowing past prior career highs.
Beginning at MLB level, Mitch Keller only needs 27 more IP (as of this writing) to cruise past his career high in 2022 of 159.0 IP. He’s seven starts, or nine appearances, shy of last year’s totals, so he should easily surpass that. Johan Oviedo’s previous high was 146.2 IP across two levels in 2019, and sitting at 124.1 IP currently should be easily passed.
For reference, the Pirates had 16 pitchers throw at least 80.0 IP in the minors during the 2022 season. Of those 16, four are no longer with the organization (Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Garcia, Domingo Gonzalez, and Joelvis Del Rosario), one is currently out from Tommy John surgery (Mike Burrows), three have been moved into relief roles (Justin Meis, Carmen Mlodzinski, and Valentin Linarez), and two were already in long relief roles (Noe Toribio and Travis MacGregor).
Luis Ortiz amassed 140.1 IP across three levels in 2022, and currently sits at 100.2 IP. If he averages at least 5 IP per start through the rest of the season, he should eclipse the 2022 high. Jared Jones was a step behind Ortiz in minor league innings at 122.2 IP, and in similar fashion, if he averages 5 IP per remaining start, he should too surpass that number sitting at 78.2 IP currently.
There is the obvious disclaimer that we can’t calculate a true number in a lot of cases, as innings such as in extended spring training aren’t tabulated. There’s also the fact that there’s no true medical data backing up one side of the argument with pitcher usage. It’s mostly based off of “feels”.
For example, Mike Burrows had the caveat of an injury history, went from 49.0 IP in 2021, almost doubling to 94.1 IP in 2022, before throwing 6.2 IP in 2023 and going down with injury. On the flip side, JT Brubaker threw 124.1 IP in 2021, 144.0 IP in 2022, before not even making it out of spring training before requiring Tommy John surgery.
With that said, I just wanted to list a handful of pitchers who look to blow past their previous season’s total innings pitched, of those not mentioned yet. One other interesting aspect is that it should also leave the Pirates with a lot of upper level options next year, where they won’t have a case of “limiting innings” with anyone like Roansy Contreras.
Listed in order of current innings pitched totals, as of 8/2/23.
Po-Yu Chen (High-A):
2022 - 98.1 IP
2023 - 94.0 IP
Thomas Harrington (High-A):
2022 - 92.2 IP at Campbell University
2023 - 92.2 IP
Quinn Priester (MLB):
2022 - 90.1 IP
2023 - 103.2 IP
Anthony Solometo (Double-A):
2022 - 47.2 IP
2023 - 87.1 IP
Derek Diamond (High-A):
2022 - 69.1 IP between Ole Miss and FCL Pirates
2023 - 81.2 IP
Bubba Chandler (High-A):
2022 - 41.1 IP
2023 - 78.0 IP
Sean Sullivan: (Double-A):
2022 - 75.0 IP
2023 - 69.0 IP
J.P. Massey (High-A):
2022 - 59.1 IP at Minnesota University
2023 - 68.2 IP
A couple names I mentioned last week
Alessandro Ercolani (Low A):
2022 - 30.1 IP
2023 - 65.0 IP
Wilber Dotel (Low-A):
2022 - 38.2 IP
2023 - 48.2 IP
Two pitchers who’ve struggled with injuries
Ryan Harbin (High A) - 2019 17th round pick that has battled injuries:
2022 - 16.1 IP
2023 - 39.2 IP
Braxton Ashcraft (Double-A) - 2018 2nd round pick returning from TJS:
2019 - 53.0 IP
2021 - 38.2 IP
2023 - 46.2 IP
Its so weird to me that preventing pitcher injuries is still just based on vibes. 100 pitches, increase by ~30 innings, etc. are all just kinda numbers put out there with no real conclusive data pushing one way or another. If someone could find out some way to science or math their way to real conclusions, they could probably make a bunch of money
Great work dude.
Completely anecdotal - no clue where I actually fall in the debate - but Ortiz and Contreras both were given huge inning bumps last year and have been broken versions of their peak selves this year.