Translating Pitchers to the Majors
Better stuff will lead to better results
Part of the reason I wrote last week that I wasn’t sure if the Pittsburgh Pirates have found their niche, is because it didn’t appear as if they were zeroing in on a type other than mostly raw tools. With that being said, they very well could be on the precipice of developing a stable of pitchers who may shift their fortunes.
Anthony Murphy recently touched on who he believes are the best pitching prospects behind Paul Skenes. I’m going to touch on why I believe a few of the pitchers he mentioned may see quicker big league success, along with a couple names much further down the list.
Velocity Is Fun, But Not Like It Used To Be
The crux of the matter is the fact the Pirates have prospects showcasing better and more advanced stuff that is backed up by metrics, at least preliminarily. To a point, I think we can still get a little too fascinated simply based off seeing velocity numbers. In the same way we were at one point in awe of Arquimedes Caminero or Stetson Allie’s ability to flash triple digits seemingly with ease. The thing is, mid to high 90’s isn’t rare anymore. While velocity is a component that can lead to success; command, control, and quality of pitches itself is becoming more important, along with that of secondaries. Shape issues have even been brought up with Skenes fastball (I’ll admit, myself included), but the fact he has the velocity to go along with plus secondaries and plus control, very well may render it irrelevant. As Geoff Pontes also wrote about earlier in July.
Shape Matters
When it comes to a fastball, ideally a pitcher wants an Induced Vertical Break (IVB) of 16 inches or higher, with 18.5 in and higher being considered elite. What a pitcher wants to avoid is a Dead Zone, or Flat, fastball that is described as having IVB that is similar to it’s horizontal break, especially at the top of the zone. I’ll be mentioning fastball break below, but it won’t be IVB numbers as their very complicated to calculate, especially for minor leaguers.
What we can do is use two MLB starting pitchers as a point of reference. Using Fangraphs writer Alex Chamberlain’s tableau, under the ‘Specs’ tab, we can see that Spencer Strider has an observed V-Mov of 10.2 in, which equates an IVB of 18.7 in, with also H-Mov of 5.6 in. Gerrit Cole has an observed V-Mov of 12.0 in, with IVB of 17.2 in, and H-Mov of 8.7 in. What should be kept in mind is that the lower the vertical break on a fourseam fastball gives the illusion of rise which equates a higher “induced” vertical break. An area prospect Mike Burrows excelled at before going down with Tommy John surgery.
Jared Jones
The 2022 second round draft pick has flashed 99 MPH since he entered the professional ranks. Baseball America’s June update said he backs it up with “two nasty breaking balls and a much-improved changeup”, but as most know at this point, command/control has been his biggest hold back. In his latest start, he cruised through three innings, before losing the zone including walking two batters and hitting one. What fascinates me the most is the numbers like his Statcast metrics in his July 22nd start against the Iowa Cubs. Not only did his fastball sit 96-98 for most of the start, touching 99, but the pitch also mostly sat between 10 to 13 inches of vertical break with 8 to 10 inches of horizontal break. It pairs high velocity with fantastic fastball shape. If you watch a Jones start, you’ll see why with all the swings and misses he generates, or otherwise foul balls and weak contact.
Braxton Ashcraft
A name that I’m becoming more and more hyped on as I watch him, is the 2018 second round draft pick of the Pirates. Ashcraft has been electric since he stepped back onto a mound for the first time since 2021. In his latest abbreviated start, he was throwing 97 MPH with ease, while pairing it with not only two phenomenal looking breaking balls, but also with above average command and control. We don’t have much data on him, as he’s spent most the year in the metric barren middle levels, but in his two Bradenton appearances he showed a fastball that closely resembled a pitch that will continue to succeed moving forward. The vertical break was sitting mostly between 10 to 15 inches, with run generally between 7 to 10 inches. If his stamina and endurance continue to build up, watch for Braxton to pop up on your radar.
Two Dark Horses
Alessandro Ercolani and Wilber (formerly Bladimir, his middle name) Dotel are two names that have been fascinating to watch. Obviously both are very raw at this point in their development, but both have shown signs of raw stuff that may lead to continued success as they climb the ladder.
Ercolani, is a 19 yr old (turns 20 on 4/20) that was signed out of San Marino in Spring of 2021. On July 3rd, he was UNHITTABLE for the first three innings, and mind you, it was against the Clearwater Threshers who’ve been running away with the Florida State League this season. In those first three, he was sitting 94-96 and up to 97, with a fourseam that sat between 10-14 inches of break. What happened after the first three innings? His velocity dipped, and his fastball’s shape began to dip, adding a couple more inches of drop. These two paired together leads to batters squaring it up more. If he builds up strength and stamina, along with improved secondaries, he could be a pop up in 2024.
Dotel was an International Free Agent signing in Fall of 2020. The now 20 yr old, turning 21 in September, got up as high as 99 MPH in his latest start. Much like Erolani, we can see that he sees his best results earlier in games when he’s maintaining velocity between 94-96, with a fourseam that has a vertical break between 10 and 15 inches, and generally 6-10 inches of horizontal movement. Dotel’s control is more sporadic throughout his start, but it deteriorates more as the start goes on. What makes him special is he also has a sinker that sits mid 90’s and touched 99, with great sink and arm side movement. Savant can be fickle with lower level prospects who are fine tuning, so I’m unsure if he actually throws a changeup and cutter, but he does throw a mid 80’s slider that looks like a very promising breaking pitch.
This was an awesome article to read! Seems like fastball shape is the new wave of success to ride, feels like we need to target someone who can teach that (idk if thats even possible) for this offseason
Not trying to rain on the “over-the-moon” expectations that people have for Skenes, but at least some evaluators were saying this about him prior to the draft.
“his four-seamer features minimal separation between its induced vertical break and its horizontal break, putting it in the "dead zone." The fear is Skenes' four-seamer will play down as a result, causing him to underperform draft night expectations.”
The Pirates ignored that and passed on a “generational hitter” (whatever that is) to pick him. We can only hope the evaluators were wrong and the Pirates were right.