Quinn Priester was a young 22 going into 2023 with only 15 Starts at AA and 2 Starts at AAA in 2022. The Pirates have had him on a fast track to MLB since drafting him as the 1-18 straight out of HS in 2019. Problem was that he only had 37 IP in 2019, and 0 in 2020. He works hard and has the physicality to make it as a #4, or #5 SP, but little more than 2 years in the minors and then see the speed of MLB?
Go back and read his eval for the 2019 Draft. Very little outside instruction through HS, and pretty much self-taught. So, very little work in 2019, none in 2020, and pushed hard in 2021 and 2022. He was not ready for MLB in 2023, but the exposure will help him become a better pitcher - eventually. He will be a 23 year old for almost all of 2024
He uses a four-seamer against lefties to set up his curveball, because a four-seamer, with less drop, plays better up in the zone than his sinker, which has more vertical drop and will tend to drop down onto the bats of hitters. If he wants to throw his curveball strikes, it will start out looking high: so it must be paired with some other pitch that comes in high (generally a four-seamer). Generally speaking, a pitcher does not what to use a sinking fastball high in the zone. Priester's two-seamer is a true sinker and does not have the horizontal movement that you will see with Perez (which is why Perez's two-seamer pairs so well with his cutter: both moving in opposite directions horizontally).
To my mind, the simplest solution for Priester is to develop a cut fastball. A good cut fastball tends to play better against opposite-side batters (righty versus lefty) and has most of the velocity of a four-seamer. With good glove-side run on his cutter, he could play it a little higher in the zone, counting on it to move in on the hands of lefties. This he could pair with his curveball, and this would allow him to drop both the changeup and the four-seamer. Of course, this all depends on his ability to learn to cut his fastball, but he seems a quick study in learning new pitches.
Looking at his other splits, I can't find anything to be optimistic about. One of the most striking (maybe a poor choice of words) split is that even when he's ahead in the count, batters had a .757 OPS against him. Of course that's much better than when he's behind (1.064) or even (.950), but .757 seems high. The league average (all counts) was .734, so even when Quinn was ahead in the count, batters performed better than they did on average.
I still have hope for Quinn based on the intelligence he expresses through his interviews and what's been widely reported about his work ethic. But he should not be starting the season in the rotation as he has a lot to work on.
Thank you. Interesting, and very, very strong in SP's, which is the most lightweight group on the 2024 Team. One of the reasons I hope that we stop at Keller, Gonzales, and Perez and use the #4 and #5 Rotation slots for the young prospects we have signed and developed. We have a great opportunity to solidify our Rotation for the next decade if we take the necessary steps now, and then continue to take the necessary steps each year to maintain a strong Rotation far into the future.
It’s crazy to think that the Pirates relied so much on openers this past season when you look at where they could be depth wise by mid season!
1. Keller
2. Perez
3. Gonzalez
4. Contreras
5. Ortiz
6. Priester
7. Falter
8. Brubaker
9. Burrows
10. Wolf
11. Skenes
12. Jones
13. Ashcroft
14. Chandler
15. Harrington
16. Solon to
17. Oviedo (2025)
Makes for an interesting dilemma going forward. Some won’t work out, some might go to the pen, but you have to think their is a trade for a long term 1b/OF somewhere?
Good list. I'll fall on the less optimistic side. Not that these players won't make it someday but some of these have yet to fully complete AA and as we have seen with other solid lists of good prospects that can take time. I think the safe assumption is a level a year with Skenes hopefully being an outlier. Just for arguments sake I'll say the following aren't candidates for 2024 at all outside of just blowing away expectations or a token end of year start: Burrows(build up innings, rusty off of TJ), Ashcraft, Chandler, Harrington, Solomoto and of course Oviedo as you noted. I also think Wolf has a lot to prove.
Unrelated to this top 15 specifically, but our prospect lists reads extremely thin compared to the last few years imo. Could really use some organizational breakouts, DSL/FCL or really anywhere, otherwise the system is going to fall in a hurry and im not sure any of us are convinced that the big league team is ready to thrive on its own
Very heavy on the pitching, which is good because we need pitching. But we also better hope that our current group of position players works out because the next wave is a ways off and signing guys like Tellez to fill in gaps can only take us so far.
With how I’ve seen others talk about Shim this offseason, I’m not surprised he was 6th. I’ll want to see him myself before I throw him way up there but I’m not surprised others are right now.
David Matoma at 15 was the shocker, quite the way to end their list lol
The podcast that went with the rankings basically said that. They were raving about his stuff. Said Shim may have the second highest upside in the system, only behind Skenes. More than Bubba.
The more rankings I see, the more I see outlets rush to pump up guys in rookie leagues, especially with international signings. Is it a rush to be first to be “in” on a guy that many fans may not know about? Or is the guy legitimately that good? FG hung a 50 on a Phillies prospect who hasn’t even gotten out of the DSL yet. Those rankings feel rushed to me.
As of now he’s at best a pitch to contact guy, with a K rate of that’s is way below average and walk rate that’s slightly above average. I feel that his walk rate is misleading since his command is in my opinion crappy and is the area that he needs to improve to have any success in the big and that’s still talking about a backend starter. On the plus side, I think this kid wants to succeed and will do what it takes, let’s just hope he has the talent to do so.
So are guys like Priester letting us down or is it the early scouting reports and hype? I remember reading a few reports that Priester was throwing a 98 mph fastball he developed in the lab, and then a few months later the report he's not even reaching 90 mph and its the most hittable pitch in his arsenal. I went from thinking we have a future ace, to thinking we have a complete non-prospect. You have to have a fastball, goodness. That was probably me not paying close attention, but that was a gut punch (of course now I anticipate gut punches from our development system).
I mostly consider Priester a product of the Great Prospect Inflation of 2020.
We all went a lil nutty that year and scouts weren't immune. They saw him pumping 98 during practice at the Alt site and shoved him up boards without ever seeing if he could hold anything close to that as a starter, which he then promptly proved he could not. They lauded his big, visually appealing curveball even after dudes like Taillon, Keller, and numerous others across the league already had theirs beaten out of their repertoire in favor of tighter sliders.
I suppose one could argue the hypothetical that another club could figure out how to build arm strength to maintain that short-stint velo, then completely overhaul his fastball to have an advantageous movement pattern, and finally figure out how to give him a Mitch Keller sweeper...but at that point, you're making the same argument about hundred dudes across the league and less about anything specific to Quinn.
Biggest thing that gets me is the constant back tracking to Greensboro, without acknowledging he's actually gotten worse since then as the competition has gone up.
Yea, it's great he did good in the lower levels, but so do a lot of people that don't exactly pan out.
The fastball was always 'meh', it's just easier to get away with it while pitching in High-A than the majors.
Quinn Priester was a young 22 going into 2023 with only 15 Starts at AA and 2 Starts at AAA in 2022. The Pirates have had him on a fast track to MLB since drafting him as the 1-18 straight out of HS in 2019. Problem was that he only had 37 IP in 2019, and 0 in 2020. He works hard and has the physicality to make it as a #4, or #5 SP, but little more than 2 years in the minors and then see the speed of MLB?
Go back and read his eval for the 2019 Draft. Very little outside instruction through HS, and pretty much self-taught. So, very little work in 2019, none in 2020, and pushed hard in 2021 and 2022. He was not ready for MLB in 2023, but the exposure will help him become a better pitcher - eventually. He will be a 23 year old for almost all of 2024
Thing is... coming up through the Pirates system... he is still mostly "self-taught."
He uses a four-seamer against lefties to set up his curveball, because a four-seamer, with less drop, plays better up in the zone than his sinker, which has more vertical drop and will tend to drop down onto the bats of hitters. If he wants to throw his curveball strikes, it will start out looking high: so it must be paired with some other pitch that comes in high (generally a four-seamer). Generally speaking, a pitcher does not what to use a sinking fastball high in the zone. Priester's two-seamer is a true sinker and does not have the horizontal movement that you will see with Perez (which is why Perez's two-seamer pairs so well with his cutter: both moving in opposite directions horizontally).
To my mind, the simplest solution for Priester is to develop a cut fastball. A good cut fastball tends to play better against opposite-side batters (righty versus lefty) and has most of the velocity of a four-seamer. With good glove-side run on his cutter, he could play it a little higher in the zone, counting on it to move in on the hands of lefties. This he could pair with his curveball, and this would allow him to drop both the changeup and the four-seamer. Of course, this all depends on his ability to learn to cut his fastball, but he seems a quick study in learning new pitches.
Great stuff AM! You promised good things with this article, and it did not disappoint
Looking at his other splits, I can't find anything to be optimistic about. One of the most striking (maybe a poor choice of words) split is that even when he's ahead in the count, batters had a .757 OPS against him. Of course that's much better than when he's behind (1.064) or even (.950), but .757 seems high. The league average (all counts) was .734, so even when Quinn was ahead in the count, batters performed better than they did on average.
I still have hope for Quinn based on the intelligence he expresses through his interviews and what's been widely reported about his work ethic. But he should not be starting the season in the rotation as he has a lot to work on.
Interesting top 15 list;
https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/pittsburgh_pirates_top_15_prospects_for_2024/s1_17194_39820056
Thank you. Interesting, and very, very strong in SP's, which is the most lightweight group on the 2024 Team. One of the reasons I hope that we stop at Keller, Gonzales, and Perez and use the #4 and #5 Rotation slots for the young prospects we have signed and developed. We have a great opportunity to solidify our Rotation for the next decade if we take the necessary steps now, and then continue to take the necessary steps each year to maintain a strong Rotation far into the future.
It’s crazy to think that the Pirates relied so much on openers this past season when you look at where they could be depth wise by mid season!
1. Keller
2. Perez
3. Gonzalez
4. Contreras
5. Ortiz
6. Priester
7. Falter
8. Brubaker
9. Burrows
10. Wolf
11. Skenes
12. Jones
13. Ashcroft
14. Chandler
15. Harrington
16. Solon to
17. Oviedo (2025)
Makes for an interesting dilemma going forward. Some won’t work out, some might go to the pen, but you have to think their is a trade for a long term 1b/OF somewhere?
Good list. I'll fall on the less optimistic side. Not that these players won't make it someday but some of these have yet to fully complete AA and as we have seen with other solid lists of good prospects that can take time. I think the safe assumption is a level a year with Skenes hopefully being an outlier. Just for arguments sake I'll say the following aren't candidates for 2024 at all outside of just blowing away expectations or a token end of year start: Burrows(build up innings, rusty off of TJ), Ashcraft, Chandler, Harrington, Solomoto and of course Oviedo as you noted. I also think Wolf has a lot to prove.
This is why I think we might see a roster with 9 or 10 multiple inning guys on the roster along with 3 or 4 one inning guys.
Unrelated to this top 15 specifically, but our prospect lists reads extremely thin compared to the last few years imo. Could really use some organizational breakouts, DSL/FCL or really anywhere, otherwise the system is going to fall in a hurry and im not sure any of us are convinced that the big league team is ready to thrive on its own
Very heavy on the pitching, which is good because we need pitching. But we also better hope that our current group of position players works out because the next wave is a ways off and signing guys like Tellez to fill in gaps can only take us so far.
With how I’ve seen others talk about Shim this offseason, I’m not surprised he was 6th. I’ll want to see him myself before I throw him way up there but I’m not surprised others are right now.
David Matoma at 15 was the shocker, quite the way to end their list lol
That’s exactly how I felt, saw Shim and made a soft what sound, then saw Matoma and let out a louder WTF!
Dam, I literally did the same thing basically lol
That ranking feels a tad premature with Shim.
If you saw the first three batters he faced as a pro, you'd think, "Only sixth?" Reality tends to set in, though.
The podcast that went with the rankings basically said that. They were raving about his stuff. Said Shim may have the second highest upside in the system, only behind Skenes. More than Bubba.
The more rankings I see, the more I see outlets rush to pump up guys in rookie leagues, especially with international signings. Is it a rush to be first to be “in” on a guy that many fans may not know about? Or is the guy legitimately that good? FG hung a 50 on a Phillies prospect who hasn’t even gotten out of the DSL yet. Those rankings feel rushed to me.
The truth is, with these guys at rookie level, nobody knows that much about them except their own teams. And the teams rarely talk candidly.
Yep. And some guys will always look nasty in short outings.
That is good to hear about Shim. The future pitching looks bright. I'm wondering if Lonnie White Jr. will move up on these lists in another year.
Dudes like White are tough for me when they're literally men amongst boys.
It was almost comical watching him this year physical impose himself on his competition. Absolute hoss.
dude looks like a tank out there
Will continue to hoss, just hope he makes enough contact to fully hoss
I want to see some more consistent contact, but the guy has so much upside it's insane. He makes more contact, he flies up everyone board easily
As of now he’s at best a pitch to contact guy, with a K rate of that’s is way below average and walk rate that’s slightly above average. I feel that his walk rate is misleading since his command is in my opinion crappy and is the area that he needs to improve to have any success in the big and that’s still talking about a backend starter. On the plus side, I think this kid wants to succeed and will do what it takes, let’s just hope he has the talent to do so.
Really nice write-up, Anth.
I think it's far past time to acknowledge the clearest issue with Quinn Priester, which is that his stuff just isn't good.
We refuse to update our priors and continue talking about him as some plus fastball-curve guy when neither pitch is close to big league average.
His first step needs to be going to the Mitch Keller School of Getting My Nuts Back, and then we can discuss strategy from there.
So are guys like Priester letting us down or is it the early scouting reports and hype? I remember reading a few reports that Priester was throwing a 98 mph fastball he developed in the lab, and then a few months later the report he's not even reaching 90 mph and its the most hittable pitch in his arsenal. I went from thinking we have a future ace, to thinking we have a complete non-prospect. You have to have a fastball, goodness. That was probably me not paying close attention, but that was a gut punch (of course now I anticipate gut punches from our development system).
I mostly consider Priester a product of the Great Prospect Inflation of 2020.
We all went a lil nutty that year and scouts weren't immune. They saw him pumping 98 during practice at the Alt site and shoved him up boards without ever seeing if he could hold anything close to that as a starter, which he then promptly proved he could not. They lauded his big, visually appealing curveball even after dudes like Taillon, Keller, and numerous others across the league already had theirs beaten out of their repertoire in favor of tighter sliders.
I suppose one could argue the hypothetical that another club could figure out how to build arm strength to maintain that short-stint velo, then completely overhaul his fastball to have an advantageous movement pattern, and finally figure out how to give him a Mitch Keller sweeper...but at that point, you're making the same argument about hundred dudes across the league and less about anything specific to Quinn.
I heard they abbreviate it MKSGMNB for short
Biggest thing that gets me is the constant back tracking to Greensboro, without acknowledging he's actually gotten worse since then as the competition has gone up.
Yea, it's great he did good in the lower levels, but so do a lot of people that don't exactly pan out.
The fastball was always 'meh', it's just easier to get away with it while pitching in High-A than the majors.
A .773 OPS against vs RHBs seems, ahem, sub-optimal. A lot better than 1.103, but still…
Did I misinterpret what you wrote as enthusiasm?
No, definitely wasn't enthusiasm, more of how you put it 'at least it wasn't 1.103'