Quinn Priester: Breaking Down His Five-Pitch Mix

Which pitches has been the go-to for the 2019 first round pick?

One of the things I’ve always enjoyed about watching Quinn Priester pitch is his ability to find multiple ways to get hitters out. There have been games where is stuff is really working for him, and he’s able to reach double digits in strikeouts, while in others he’s more reliant on pitching to contact.

In two of his last three starts (not including his one inning outing over the weekend) we have seen both sides of Priester, with him striking out 11 in six innings pitched on June 24, only to turn around only punch out three in 7.1 innings – but picking up 12 groundouts in the process on July 7.

It’s been an up and down year for Priester as he continues to try and find consistency on the mound and the best use for each of his five pitches.

He’s had varying success with each of them, which include a fastball, sinker, curveball, slider and changeup. Here’s a bit of a breakdown on how each of the pitches are doing.

Fastball/Sinker

There’s been a lot of talk about Priester’s fastball/sinker as of late. Neither are swing and miss, put batters away, type of pitches in a way like Jared Jones. Priester’s fastball isn’t really overpowering, averaging right at 92-mph his last time around.

At times, they both seem to very hittable, and really his success on a start-to-star basis is based on just how much the opposition capitalizes on it. His last time around, hitters swung at his sinker alone 24 times, and didn’t miss at all, while putting 17 (seven were fouled off) in play. He didn’t get punished that time, but we’ve also seen the runs pile up every now and again.

The sinker itself is a fascinating pitch, as despite it being very hittable at times, he’s had better success than you would think with it.

There are 37 major league pitchers who have had at least 100 plate appearances ended with a sinker (he has 125) and among them Priester would rank 20^th, 19^th, 6^th, and 38^th (last) in opponent’s average, slugging percentage, whiff rate and strikeout rate, respectively. (All stats and rankings are from the All-Star break, pulled from Baseball Savant)

One name that shows up within a few percentage points within what Priester is producing is  Bryan Bello, a former Top 100 prospect who is enjoying a strong rookie season with a 3.93 xFIP and 1.4 WAR on Fangraphs, and whose sinker is rated among the best on Baseball Savant.

Despite the heavy contact, nearly 40% of all plate appearances ended with a sinker has been a groundout, so he’s still finding success.

The question will be if he can continue that into the majors.

Slider/Curveball

Lucky for Priester, he established that he has one of the best curveballs in the minors, and now with tracking pubic in Triple-A, we get to attach some numbers to what we already knew with the eye test.

Priester has a 47.5% strikeout rate with the curveball, followed up by a Whiff rate of 38.05%, both of which would be a top-20 number in the majors right now (minimum 50 plate appearances).

The slider was a later addition after already going pro but has quickly transformed into a weapon of its own. Reid Detmers, yet another former Top-100 prospect has comparable metrics on his slider as Priester and has had his pitch graded out favorably by Baseball Savant.

There have been nights that his curveball hasn’t gotten as many chases as usual, so Priester is able to adjust and focus on the slider to pick up the slack.

His curveball will always get more recognition on a national stage, but the slider is a weapon on its own.

Changeup

The off-speed pitch isn’t something that he throws a lot, but it works as an ‘ok’ fifth pitch with some strong underlying metrics that probably play up due to the low usage.

However, it has put up some of the same numbers in Triple-A that Patrick Sandoval – who has one of the better changeups in the majors – is putting up right now. He has a 29% strikeout rate with the pitch, and generates whiffs on 39.2% of swings against it.

Of course, all of this comes with the obvious caveat that we are comparing Triple-A numbers to the majors, which isn’t always going to translate but does give us a baseline to look at.

Final Analysis

Priester is an interesting pitcher to follow, he’s one of the most competitive players you will find, always trying to push himself to be the best possible.

It’s the kind of work ethic that you don’t want to discount him, even if a lot of the metrics tell you otherwise.

The big draw with him at this point is his floor, which is probably the highest in the system right now. There isn’t much doubting if he’s going to be a major league starter, it just feels like it’s up in the air on just how good of one he’ll be.

A lot of his success could be determined to how hard the fastballs are hit. If they play like they have in Triple-A, he could put up solid, if not spectacular, numbers.

We've seen what has happened to Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, and even Johan Oviedo, three pitchers whose fastballs have been a little more on the hittable side. The difference between Priester and the rest could come from the fact he throws a deeper mix of pitches.

He has a professional pitch set to attack hitters several ways; the last step is trying to figure out how to get major leaguers out.

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