I do like these type of trade discussion, but I'd say this gives them what they want in 2026 but not necessarily 2025. Both stepped into AAA and in partial seasons did well, but that is no guarantee they are ready to 1) step into the middle or top of a playoff rotation (what Red Sox want) OR 2) be ready to be a full time starter in the OF of a playoff wannabe (what the Pirates want). Anthony would be far from the first top prospect to have growing pains.
Since both these teams are focusing on trades that help the team from day 1 in 2025 I'd say a Keller for Abreu (both players with clearly lower ceilings) as a starting point fits their immediate needs much better with lower risk but less longer term possible splash.
One addendum (a gripe but not about your post but related). Jones was VERY exciting in 2025, but I keep hearing him talked about as some guarantee as a top of the rotation pitcher. He COULD be, but clearly outside of a hot start was NOT in 2024. Baseball is hard and Bubba is also electric but we need give him time. Even if he bursts into the opening day rotation, seems we need to assume an end of year result more like Jones than Skenes.
Love your thoughts here. I think you are right about these guys probably not helping as much as you’d like this year. I don’t hate Keller for Abreu either. Might be worth an ask on the pirates side.
Another guy that has my interest would be cowser from Baltimore for maybe Jones? I know there were rumors of Baltimore wanting Jones last year.
I think I’d prefer them to hold on to the remaining pitchers and go get a Winker or Kepler. Then bolster the bullpen. But the offense still scares me and they really need to make a run this year. My thought would be the young pitching and bullpen could carry a mediocre offense.
Also we can’t forget that guys like Suwinski and Davis could bounce back and be 30+ HR guys this year and endy could become a stud as well. Not going to hold my breath but those 3 are important to the future, especially if they do not make any additional moves for big bats.
There is potential for help elsewhere on the Pirate 40 man including those you listed but I also feel a real need to have more proven players (no guarantees they will work out) so I'd rather get a Kepler who is decent / not great but too me provides a much better chance of success than hoping on Jack etc.
If Pirates are thinking of clearing salary with a Keller trade (not a salary dump at all) then from the Orioles I might think they would be more amenable to a Keller - Kjerstad trade.
No I think they 100% need to get Kepler or Winker. Not sure there’s any other free agent other than the top guys I’d want. I’m just saying it would be nice if two of those 3 guys breakout this year too. Do you like kjerstad better than cowser?
I would rather Laureano than either Kepler or Winker if the price is right. Winker won't be cheap, and there are some red flags with Kepler. Neither guy is very good defensively, and Winker is an absolute minus (which means both are probably only suitable for RF at PNC).
Laureano should be cheaper than either and can play LF at PNC (probably as well as RF), since his defensive struggles have nothing to do with range or break. He can cover ground in the OF, he just seems to lose the ball in the lights or something often. He has the potential, though he has not shown it in 6 years of pro ball, to be better than either of those guys.
Makes sense. I prefer Cowser but don't see them trading him and also think that is a Jones trade while I think Keller could get Kjerstad. Not saying either are guaranteed 1-1 trades but those would be the primary pieces
Okay, I see what you are saying. That makes sense. I’m just hoping they make some meaningful moves to get this team to the playoffs! I’m starving for some playoff baseball and want to see skenes in the playoffs.
Another thought, why not just go get Winker who will give you good production in RF for cheap? Then go bolster your bullpen by getting tanner Scott and andrew chafin. Then to top it off go get another starter for a little more depth like a Lorenzen.
Good write-up by Longenhagen on the trade. He's more positive about Cleveland's side of it, but that's largely due to their record of developing pitchers and thinking they'll get more out of Ortiz and Kennedy as reflected in this quote:
"Cleveland has been able to coax more arm strength out of guys who weren’t obviously projectable, and if they can do the same with Kennedy (while he retains his great command) then he’ll break out and look more like a mid-rotation candidate."
I like Dipre some. Seems the kid can hit, albeit old for the level.
He is gonna be a MiLB UFA in 2 years too so he really needs to get going. Probably won't make it passed High A and I don't think he deserved to be protected on the AAA roster but I think the kid can hit.
Hajjar is the only player I'm familiar with on the other side. I liked him at Michigan and as a mid/late Day 2 pick in the '21 draft. The second round was high I thought for him though.
I just took another look at the Blue Jays-Indians (sorry, I just can't go with Guardians) trade prior to the Indians-Pirates trade and really think the Indians made out like a bandit on the whole deal. Think about it - as valuable as Gimenez's defense is his bat is cratering and he's on a fairly long-term (2029) deal with top money for a defense-first player. They threw in a reliever with pretty lousy peripherals and got back Horwitz and a low-level outfield prospect. Then, in return for Horwitz they get Ortiz and two left-handed pitching prospects. They basically turned a defense-first middle infielder on a high-end contract into a young controllable healthy pitcher with high upside and two decent LHP prospects. If Horwitz hits, fine. But if he doesn't, this is evidence why the Indians compete year in and year out and the Pirates don't. The Indians spent some money on Gimenez and when it became evident his value per dollar wasn't there anymore, they moved on and got a great deal with high potential.
My first response to the nickname Guardians wasn't meh but when I realized it's a reference to the awesome art deco statues on the bridges leading into downtown, I thought the name was about perfect.
But, what if it’s a win-win for both teams? Sure we gave up some value, but Horwitz’s value could be greatest of the quartet. In fact, if I was betting my own money it’d be on him.
I’ll just add: this is just the cost of a probable quality bat. They don’t grow on trees. The 2024 Blue Jays had only 5 players with over 100 PA’s and over 100 wRC+ and now two of them play for the Pirates: IKF and Horwitz. FWIW, the BTV model had the Pirates making out, with $28 million in value for us to $18 million in value for the Guards. There’s injury risk with all 3, and no guarantee Ortiz is a viable starter moving forward with his secondary pitch issues, to say nothing of the two prospects. I get Ortiz pitched well last year, but he pitched like Jones with secondary metrics like Bailey Falter and I’m sure the Guards valued him accordingly.
This is also why I don’t love building with pitching. The risk with pitchers depresses their value.
Ortiz's expected stats were fairly worse than his final numbers and Horwitz's were a little lower than his final. If Horwitz is above a league average bat for 6 years then in my mind it doesnt really matter what Ortiz and the rest do
Jim Callis was on MLB Radio earlier today and he agrees with your assessment. Thought the Pirates could’ve and should’ve got more than Horowitz for Ortiz and prospects.
There’s no doubt in my mind this trade is on Hague. Well Hague and Nutting, because money is always the number 1 factor in any Pirates transactions.
As an aside, Cherington said that over the last couple of years they had tried to work out a deal for Horwitz directly with Toronto and then when they couldn't get something done, they turned to Cleveland. I don't know if that would have driven up the price, but as StatsCbl says, using a middle man usually increases the price.
We weren't getting Horwitz from the Blue Jays because they wanted Gimenez (not Ortiz). I'm guessing the Guardians didn't want Horwitz, they wanted a pitcher like Ortiz. Since the Blue Jays knew the Pirates wanted Horwitz, everything worked out.
Glad they paid the price rather than walking away. Is there a chance BC would make the attempt to talk to Santander - that's a situation where no "go-between" is required. Straight money!
I look at it like 3 couples going out for dinner. Toronto wants to pay the bill, Pittsburgh said they would pick up the tip, and Cleveland got to pick out the place. While knowing what Pittsburgh was going to order no matter the scale of the place.
There's something about the Rule 5 draft (both phases) that seems odd to me. Now, I'm just a small town lawyer (I'm not any kind of lawyer) but IIRC, minor leaguers aren't covered under the MLB collective bargaining agreement and now have their own minor league CBA. So how can the league subject them to Rule 5 and compel them to change teams?
I think I get it now. Rule 5 isn't part of the CBA, it's part of The Official Professional Baseball Rules Book and any kid who signs a professional baseball contract is bound by those rules. See Rule 3 on the uniform contract. Fun stuff!
I sometimes wonder if a player can say no to a trade. It happens in world football. Just happened to my team Liverpool this past transfer window. Dude wanted to stay at his hometown team in sunny Spain.
Mayo said the AAA phase seemed like the longest he could remember. Pointing this out because of Anthony’s article the other day about domestic roster limits causing problems. The main purpose of the AAA phase is for teams to balance out their MiL rosters. That’s tougher now.
Most boring Winter meeting I can remember. Not just for the Bugs but everyone who isn’t a Met. We don’t need to squander a roster
Spot on a R5 pick. Need 1 real OF bat. Santander is my wish. Davis is my developmental hope to be a 25HR masher in 25. Fever dream is former Jays hit coach Matt Hague told brass “get Horvitz. He’s going to be a batting champ. Brian Giles type”
I actually thought there was a flurry of activity for these meetings. Fried, soto, oneil, conforto, severino, holmes, a few trades, and there was more that I dont have off the top of my head, thats a pretty busy few days in december
After watching the Horwitz video I also thought he had a Giles vibe to him. He looks like he has a real solid approach at the dish and hopefully can hit a little better against LH pitching. Good BB vs SO rate as well.
A late bloomer who had some big numbers that AM threw out yesterday - I'll repeat. For all hitters (about 270) who had 350 or more PA, he was 27th in OBP, 39th in wRC+, 48th in OPS. I'll add numbers for MLB First Basemen using the same number of PA's - OBP 6th, wRC+ 5th, BA 9th, Slg 14th. The name was not indicative of the work he did last year being a 1st year MLB Player. Some other important stats for Defense using 300 Innings and using the Advanced Stats - DRS -1, UZR150 + 4.9 which is 3rd behind Perez and Pasquantino, Def -1.2 which is 4th behind Walker, Santana, and Perez. Excellent performance!
Went back to 2023 to check how he did at AAA - 3rd Best. This is going to be a lot to live up to, but he seems to be comfortable. Be nice if we could score Anthony Santander as mentioned above by Mitchell. Sharing the Load!
At least one more trade needs to be made to put this team in proper order to compete - without excuses - for the playoffs in 2025. So far BC has shown the ability to trade with the Indians, Orioles, and Red Sox. There has to be a team out there needing help and we still have guys like MI Ji-Hwan Bae, MI Alika Williams, SP Johan Oviedo 27, SP Braxton Ashcraft 25, SP Mike Burrows 25, and others. By others I mean if the deal is right for the Pirates long term, there are very few players we would consider untouchable.
Skenes, Jones, Keller, and Falter are 4 of the 5 pieces to the Rotation. It's possible Oviedo could be ready to return from TJ by May or that Bubba Chandler or Thomas Harrington could be ready to step up to fill out the Rotation.
Don’t sleep on Burrows, love to see Chandler there from day one, but if not him I hope is Burrows. I don’t think he’s built to make 30 starts, but I take 15-18.
They’re going to sign someone like Wade Miley just to piss me off. Chandler should be starting in 2nd series of season, not some has been/never was been.
Roman Anthony for Bubba Chandler? Who says no? It would give both organizations what they need.
I do like these type of trade discussion, but I'd say this gives them what they want in 2026 but not necessarily 2025. Both stepped into AAA and in partial seasons did well, but that is no guarantee they are ready to 1) step into the middle or top of a playoff rotation (what Red Sox want) OR 2) be ready to be a full time starter in the OF of a playoff wannabe (what the Pirates want). Anthony would be far from the first top prospect to have growing pains.
Since both these teams are focusing on trades that help the team from day 1 in 2025 I'd say a Keller for Abreu (both players with clearly lower ceilings) as a starting point fits their immediate needs much better with lower risk but less longer term possible splash.
One addendum (a gripe but not about your post but related). Jones was VERY exciting in 2025, but I keep hearing him talked about as some guarantee as a top of the rotation pitcher. He COULD be, but clearly outside of a hot start was NOT in 2024. Baseball is hard and Bubba is also electric but we need give him time. Even if he bursts into the opening day rotation, seems we need to assume an end of year result more like Jones than Skenes.
Love your thoughts here. I think you are right about these guys probably not helping as much as you’d like this year. I don’t hate Keller for Abreu either. Might be worth an ask on the pirates side.
Another guy that has my interest would be cowser from Baltimore for maybe Jones? I know there were rumors of Baltimore wanting Jones last year.
I think I’d prefer them to hold on to the remaining pitchers and go get a Winker or Kepler. Then bolster the bullpen. But the offense still scares me and they really need to make a run this year. My thought would be the young pitching and bullpen could carry a mediocre offense.
Also we can’t forget that guys like Suwinski and Davis could bounce back and be 30+ HR guys this year and endy could become a stud as well. Not going to hold my breath but those 3 are important to the future, especially if they do not make any additional moves for big bats.
There is potential for help elsewhere on the Pirate 40 man including those you listed but I also feel a real need to have more proven players (no guarantees they will work out) so I'd rather get a Kepler who is decent / not great but too me provides a much better chance of success than hoping on Jack etc.
If Pirates are thinking of clearing salary with a Keller trade (not a salary dump at all) then from the Orioles I might think they would be more amenable to a Keller - Kjerstad trade.
No I think they 100% need to get Kepler or Winker. Not sure there’s any other free agent other than the top guys I’d want. I’m just saying it would be nice if two of those 3 guys breakout this year too. Do you like kjerstad better than cowser?
I would rather Laureano than either Kepler or Winker if the price is right. Winker won't be cheap, and there are some red flags with Kepler. Neither guy is very good defensively, and Winker is an absolute minus (which means both are probably only suitable for RF at PNC).
Laureano should be cheaper than either and can play LF at PNC (probably as well as RF), since his defensive struggles have nothing to do with range or break. He can cover ground in the OF, he just seems to lose the ball in the lights or something often. He has the potential, though he has not shown it in 6 years of pro ball, to be better than either of those guys.
Makes sense. I prefer Cowser but don't see them trading him and also think that is a Jones trade while I think Keller could get Kjerstad. Not saying either are guaranteed 1-1 trades but those would be the primary pieces
Okay, I see what you are saying. That makes sense. I’m just hoping they make some meaningful moves to get this team to the playoffs! I’m starving for some playoff baseball and want to see skenes in the playoffs.
Another thought, why not just go get Winker who will give you good production in RF for cheap? Then go bolster your bullpen by getting tanner Scott and andrew chafin. Then to top it off go get another starter for a little more depth like a Lorenzen.
Rangers DFA Roansy Contreras.
Yikes.
Mike Burrows > Mitch Keller
Good write-up by Longenhagen on the trade. He's more positive about Cleveland's side of it, but that's largely due to their record of developing pitchers and thinking they'll get more out of Ortiz and Kennedy as reflected in this quote:
"Cleveland has been able to coax more arm strength out of guys who weren’t obviously projectable, and if they can do the same with Kennedy (while he retains his great command) then he’ll break out and look more like a mid-rotation candidate."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/guardians-get-pitching-prospects-pinata-for-andres-gimenez/
I like Dipre some. Seems the kid can hit, albeit old for the level.
He is gonna be a MiLB UFA in 2 years too so he really needs to get going. Probably won't make it passed High A and I don't think he deserved to be protected on the AAA roster but I think the kid can hit.
Hajjar is the only player I'm familiar with on the other side. I liked him at Michigan and as a mid/late Day 2 pick in the '21 draft. The second round was high I thought for him though.
I just took another look at the Blue Jays-Indians (sorry, I just can't go with Guardians) trade prior to the Indians-Pirates trade and really think the Indians made out like a bandit on the whole deal. Think about it - as valuable as Gimenez's defense is his bat is cratering and he's on a fairly long-term (2029) deal with top money for a defense-first player. They threw in a reliever with pretty lousy peripherals and got back Horwitz and a low-level outfield prospect. Then, in return for Horwitz they get Ortiz and two left-handed pitching prospects. They basically turned a defense-first middle infielder on a high-end contract into a young controllable healthy pitcher with high upside and two decent LHP prospects. If Horwitz hits, fine. But if he doesn't, this is evidence why the Indians compete year in and year out and the Pirates don't. The Indians spent some money on Gimenez and when it became evident his value per dollar wasn't there anymore, they moved on and got a great deal with high potential.
My first response to the nickname Guardians wasn't meh but when I realized it's a reference to the awesome art deco statues on the bridges leading into downtown, I thought the name was about perfect.
https://www.cleveland.com/resizer/iK6MYxSI2t2q7UhCEzmxqKsyhio=/1280x0/smart/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/advancelocal/RKJAMHBJRJEURMNNVWQODA6EWQ.jpg
But, what if it’s a win-win for both teams? Sure we gave up some value, but Horwitz’s value could be greatest of the quartet. In fact, if I was betting my own money it’d be on him.
I’ll just add: this is just the cost of a probable quality bat. They don’t grow on trees. The 2024 Blue Jays had only 5 players with over 100 PA’s and over 100 wRC+ and now two of them play for the Pirates: IKF and Horwitz. FWIW, the BTV model had the Pirates making out, with $28 million in value for us to $18 million in value for the Guards. There’s injury risk with all 3, and no guarantee Ortiz is a viable starter moving forward with his secondary pitch issues, to say nothing of the two prospects. I get Ortiz pitched well last year, but he pitched like Jones with secondary metrics like Bailey Falter and I’m sure the Guards valued him accordingly.
This is also why I don’t love building with pitching. The risk with pitchers depresses their value.
Ortiz's expected stats were fairly worse than his final numbers and Horwitz's were a little lower than his final. If Horwitz is above a league average bat for 6 years then in my mind it doesnt really matter what Ortiz and the rest do
The Guardians were the middle man in us getting Horwitz. The middle man usually gets a little extra.
imagine if we did the same with IKF
Jim Callis was on MLB Radio earlier today and he agrees with your assessment. Thought the Pirates could’ve and should’ve got more than Horowitz for Ortiz and prospects.
There’s no doubt in my mind this trade is on Hague. Well Hague and Nutting, because money is always the number 1 factor in any Pirates transactions.
As an aside, Cherington said that over the last couple of years they had tried to work out a deal for Horwitz directly with Toronto and then when they couldn't get something done, they turned to Cleveland. I don't know if that would have driven up the price, but as StatsCbl says, using a middle man usually increases the price.
We weren't getting Horwitz from the Blue Jays because they wanted Gimenez (not Ortiz). I'm guessing the Guardians didn't want Horwitz, they wanted a pitcher like Ortiz. Since the Blue Jays knew the Pirates wanted Horwitz, everything worked out.
Glad they paid the price rather than walking away. Is there a chance BC would make the attempt to talk to Santander - that's a situation where no "go-between" is required. Straight money!
I saw a while back mlb trade rumors predicted he would go for 4 year 80 million.
Totally agree. Excellent maneuvering by an organization that knows what it’s doing.
They showed they knew what they were doing the moment they dialed Cherington’s number.
I look at it like 3 couples going out for dinner. Toronto wants to pay the bill, Pittsburgh said they would pick up the tip, and Cleveland got to pick out the place. While knowing what Pittsburgh was going to order no matter the scale of the place.
Apparently, Hunter Stratton's rehab is ahead of schedule. I didn't think we'd see him until the second half next year, but he may be ready for ST.
That is amazing. I wasn’t sure he would play at all in 2025 after looking at the video of the injury. Good for him.
I thought he would be crippled for life that night.
Not planning to watch that replay again any time soon.
There's something about the Rule 5 draft (both phases) that seems odd to me. Now, I'm just a small town lawyer (I'm not any kind of lawyer) but IIRC, minor leaguers aren't covered under the MLB collective bargaining agreement and now have their own minor league CBA. So how can the league subject them to Rule 5 and compel them to change teams?
I think I get it now. Rule 5 isn't part of the CBA, it's part of The Official Professional Baseball Rules Book and any kid who signs a professional baseball contract is bound by those rules. See Rule 3 on the uniform contract. Fun stuff!
https://web.archive.org/web/20240526021434/https://www.agent.mlbplayers.com/_files/ugd/4d23dc_168483d9e6a7481ab3da1f5f0ea90f41.pdf
I sometimes wonder if a player can say no to a trade. It happens in world football. Just happened to my team Liverpool this past transfer window. Dude wanted to stay at his hometown team in sunny Spain.
Mayo said the AAA phase seemed like the longest he could remember. Pointing this out because of Anthony’s article the other day about domestic roster limits causing problems. The main purpose of the AAA phase is for teams to balance out their MiL rosters. That’s tougher now.
Most boring Winter meeting I can remember. Not just for the Bugs but everyone who isn’t a Met. We don’t need to squander a roster
Spot on a R5 pick. Need 1 real OF bat. Santander is my wish. Davis is my developmental hope to be a 25HR masher in 25. Fever dream is former Jays hit coach Matt Hague told brass “get Horvitz. He’s going to be a batting champ. Brian Giles type”
Huh? Maybe on the trade side (only 3 bigger deals, two of which done by Cleveland) and lots of the big FAs signed in the last week.
I actually thought there was a flurry of activity for these meetings. Fried, soto, oneil, conforto, severino, holmes, a few trades, and there was more that I dont have off the top of my head, thats a pretty busy few days in december
After watching the Horwitz video I also thought he had a Giles vibe to him. He looks like he has a real solid approach at the dish and hopefully can hit a little better against LH pitching. Good BB vs SO rate as well.
A late bloomer who had some big numbers that AM threw out yesterday - I'll repeat. For all hitters (about 270) who had 350 or more PA, he was 27th in OBP, 39th in wRC+, 48th in OPS. I'll add numbers for MLB First Basemen using the same number of PA's - OBP 6th, wRC+ 5th, BA 9th, Slg 14th. The name was not indicative of the work he did last year being a 1st year MLB Player. Some other important stats for Defense using 300 Innings and using the Advanced Stats - DRS -1, UZR150 + 4.9 which is 3rd behind Perez and Pasquantino, Def -1.2 which is 4th behind Walker, Santana, and Perez. Excellent performance!
Went back to 2023 to check how he did at AAA - 3rd Best. This is going to be a lot to live up to, but he seems to be comfortable. Be nice if we could score Anthony Santander as mentioned above by Mitchell. Sharing the Load!
If we’re going to dream, let’s go get Kyle Tucker.
Oy.
Yer #11 and 13 prospects are gone!
Updated Top 25, yo!
Or are you waiting until the rest of the shot hits the fan?
-Wabbit
At least one more trade needs to be made to put this team in proper order to compete - without excuses - for the playoffs in 2025. So far BC has shown the ability to trade with the Indians, Orioles, and Red Sox. There has to be a team out there needing help and we still have guys like MI Ji-Hwan Bae, MI Alika Williams, SP Johan Oviedo 27, SP Braxton Ashcraft 25, SP Mike Burrows 25, and others. By others I mean if the deal is right for the Pirates long term, there are very few players we would consider untouchable.
Skenes, Jones, Keller, and Falter are 4 of the 5 pieces to the Rotation. It's possible Oviedo could be ready to return from TJ by May or that Bubba Chandler or Thomas Harrington could be ready to step up to fill out the Rotation.
Don’t sleep on Burrows, love to see Chandler there from day one, but if not him I hope is Burrows. I don’t think he’s built to make 30 starts, but I take 15-18.
They’re going to sign someone like Wade Miley just to piss me off. Chandler should be starting in 2nd series of season, not some has been/never was been.
Someone bookmark this post so we know where to direct our vitriol when the actually sign wade miley!