I just wanted to share my subscription notice. WTM, NMR and others have followed local coverage where it was provided and On Deck seems like the next provider.
This is exactly why they signed him. His xstats in 2022, when healthy, were excellent. Plus, the volatility in the numerous defensive statistics out there tell me they aren’t very reliable. Oh, and Tellez is only 28 years old, not 38.
I thought Santana was an excellent signing last year, strong track record even into his mid-30s and positive regression candidate that extremely underperformed his xwOBA from 2022. Plus, all of his underlying metrics were additionally supportive. His 2023 results were great, and the Bucs definitely got their moneys worth. But, his xstats fell off a cliff last year. He may be a better defender at age 38, but he will massively disappoint with his bat this year as the aging curve may have finally caught up to him.
I look more at probabilities than outcomes as high probabilities tend to lead to positive outcomes, not vice versa. Santana had very good outcomes last year, i.e., counting stats as you reference. But, his expected stats tell me a completely different story, a story that these good outcomes are not likely moving forward.
The complete opposite was true the prior year. In 2022, Santana largely underperformed when looking at outcomes. However, his expected stats told a very different story, a story that these poor outcomes were unlikely moving forward.
Totally agree. Also I don't think it was ever Tellez or Santana . More like Santana or Joe. Just another 1 of those manufactured angst things with the Pirates
It'll be extremely rare that any team willing to spend what the Pirates choose can have a perfectly planned offseason.
The TV deals collapsed and Nutting took the COVID approach. There was never going to be the budget here to do anything that anyone really wanted, let alone call their shots along the way. Simple as that.
Under the conditions, I frankly thing they did well.
So weird when real MLB teams operate like a real MLB team. Such as the Mariners adding a 2B (multiple actually) and RP, when their biggest needs included 2B and RP.
It's a reminder of how far removed the Pirates are from operating like one. And an illustration of why Pirate fans are bemoaning the loss of a 38yo 1B who's produced a whopping 2.9 fWAR total over the last four seasons. It's like they're not even in the same sport as the real teams. We've lost all sense of what real MLB teams do.
By reports, Alika Williams is a fine defensive SS, but not much of a hitter. Liover Peguero hit 7 HR in 198 AB in his first extensive exposure to MLB pitching in 2023 as a 22 year old. In fact, in his time at AA/AAA/MLB in 2023 he posted 24 doubles and 20 HR. His defense needs some improvement, but he has played SS in over 300 professional games, and fielded .957 at SS at AA last year then .960 for the Pirates in 39 games.
I like Peguero to start at 2B opposite Oneil Cruz at SS in 2024, and if needed, Peguero should be the first option at SS if Cruz needs a break.
Okay, now look at Nick Gonzales’s numbers from last year…60 XBHs. Granted, he has his issues, but everyone is sleeping on this kid. I’m not saying he figures everything out this year, but I believe he has a higher probability of having a more productive year at the plate than his competition at 2B.
He could be starting 8 but without a regular position--I know he's not the next Ben Zobrist, but his usage could be patterned after Zobrist's, who would get significant innings at four or more positions resulting in 600+ PAs during his prime.
Truthfully, no one knows who or what may be in the future, of course. But I do know now that Triolo's .298 average from some 50 games last year, along with his far above average glove, shows far superior than any others mentioned in the discussion around 2B.
I really have no hope for this team in terms of wins. Not enough pitching, but I am curious to see how certain players perform this year: Cruz, Peggy, Jack, Henry...can they take another step forward? Can Ke continue to improve at the plate and become a more complete player? Can Triolo add some power and make himself into more of an everyday player? I really like his defensive game. Will Ro rebound and surprise us? That's kinda where I'm at with this team.
While I would have preferred they aim higher than Santana, I’d have preferred they just cut Tellez and resign Santana for that amount. I think the way they approached the position this offseason says a lot about their piss poor approach to risk management.
For a team that’s so risk averse, Tellez is actually a massive (and foolish) gamble. If everything goes well he’s maybe a 1 WAR player (that’d be a career year for him). The defense puts his floor in Tsutsugo territory. Santana’s defense would mean he’s probably at least replacement level if the bat falls off. So we they took that gamble to save $2 MM measly dollars? The benefit sure isn’t in the upside of Tellez.
I think Santana signing yesterday.... and Snell, Montgomery and 40% of the FAs still unsigned means the offseason isn't over. It's just every team is now getting wise on the benefit of waiting until you can use the Injured List to open up roster spots.
Ok... so here's the move that seems in character for the Pirates this off-season... see if the Royals will take Gonzalez and Kennedy for M. J. Melendez. Then the Pirates can have 2 catchers who play RF badly. At least Melendez is, by all accounts, a good catcher.
I just wanted to share my subscription notice. WTM, NMR and others have followed local coverage where it was provided and On Deck seems like the next provider.
Looking forward to the content.
Thanks!
$6.75M
38yo
Job description :
150-200 platoon whacks
Play in the dirt some
Draw a path for the diaper dandies
One two punch 10 days into season
Choi out, SS out
Here we go
500 AB
Everyday in the dirt
Captain of the infield
-They got their 4M worth
-Raw piece return w ceiling unlimited
-Career lasting example set for all the kids
The Cruz injury was responsible for
Santana’s lone incomplete task
Didn’t play with Cruz long enough
to set up the
OC-MDS
O’Neill Cruise Missile Defense System
That’s fallen under the leadership
Of
ROWDY TELLEZ
GOOD LUCK WITH THAT
https://www.brewcrewball.com/2022/12/19/23516193/milwaukee-brewers-rowdy-tellez-is-positioned-for-a-breakout-season-in-2023 saw this and found it interesting injury really messed his bat up but if healthy he could really be helpful. Catches everything at him
This is exactly why they signed him. His xstats in 2022, when healthy, were excellent. Plus, the volatility in the numerous defensive statistics out there tell me they aren’t very reliable. Oh, and Tellez is only 28 years old, not 38.
I thought Santana was an excellent signing last year, strong track record even into his mid-30s and positive regression candidate that extremely underperformed his xwOBA from 2022. Plus, all of his underlying metrics were additionally supportive. His 2023 results were great, and the Bucs definitely got their moneys worth. But, his xstats fell off a cliff last year. He may be a better defender at age 38, but he will massively disappoint with his bat this year as the aging curve may have finally caught up to him.
Santana 14 years in the league
2010 Rookie year 46G
2020 Covid 60G
Other 12 years averaged over 650 AB
Santana had some really strong years early on
How about this? Eliminating his one insane AS year of 2019
2023 remember only 146G
numbers and where they rank compared to other
golden years
R 78- 5th most
H 132 4h
2B 33 4th
HR 23 5th
RBI 86 2nd
SB 6 2nd
K 5th least
162 G career ave 242/.356/.432/.787
2023 .240/.318/.429/.747
162G TB -249
146 G 236
2023
Here is the best, only took 37 years to shatter new high career totals for the 3 running categories, his highest?
His taking the extra base
unbelievable
I look more at probabilities than outcomes as high probabilities tend to lead to positive outcomes, not vice versa. Santana had very good outcomes last year, i.e., counting stats as you reference. But, his expected stats tell me a completely different story, a story that these good outcomes are not likely moving forward.
The complete opposite was true the prior year. In 2022, Santana largely underperformed when looking at outcomes. However, his expected stats told a very different story, a story that these poor outcomes were unlikely moving forward.
Anthony correct if im wrong,
There's too many stats, some just don't add up
Lets say in 2023 you and I saw every pirate game, which we probably did
Season's end we discuss the goods, the bads and the ugly's
Now we watched the same games, same players and coaches
- We both saw Ovie throw 3000 pitches after only a 1000 in 2022
Critique's were both spot on and very simillar, marveling over Hayes
Talked about quick release but moreso seemingly unlimited range
he's in the seats, coaches box, cutting of the SS
OK sounds good, yep, we are lucky to have him
Next day you see a post from me
Range runs save
-1
How?
Totally agree. Also I don't think it was ever Tellez or Santana . More like Santana or Joe. Just another 1 of those manufactured angst things with the Pirates
Well it's unlikely to trade for Jorge Barrosa now, DBacks just traded Fletcher to the White Sox.
Good, let's hope so.
It'll be extremely rare that any team willing to spend what the Pirates choose can have a perfectly planned offseason.
The TV deals collapsed and Nutting took the COVID approach. There was never going to be the budget here to do anything that anyone really wanted, let alone call their shots along the way. Simple as that.
Under the conditions, I frankly thing they did well.
I agree, bold endorsement for me
“they did well”
That’s a rare back ender of a post for ya
Lol
So weird when real MLB teams operate like a real MLB team. Such as the Mariners adding a 2B (multiple actually) and RP, when their biggest needs included 2B and RP.
Mariners just got Santos from the White Sox, he has a chance to be very good in that bullpen.
wins are wins, brother.
Judge the players they got for what they are, of course, but I'll take the best collection of talent regardless of where it's allocated.
Sure, but there's even still a way a competent GM goes about it, then there's Ben
It's a reminder of how far removed the Pirates are from operating like one. And an illustration of why Pirate fans are bemoaning the loss of a 38yo 1B who's produced a whopping 2.9 fWAR total over the last four seasons. It's like they're not even in the same sport as the real teams. We've lost all sense of what real MLB teams do.
Couldn't believe Belt is still out there. Though, he didn't actually play much 1B last year. But he still hit the shit out of the ball.
By reports, Alika Williams is a fine defensive SS, but not much of a hitter. Liover Peguero hit 7 HR in 198 AB in his first extensive exposure to MLB pitching in 2023 as a 22 year old. In fact, in his time at AA/AAA/MLB in 2023 he posted 24 doubles and 20 HR. His defense needs some improvement, but he has played SS in over 300 professional games, and fielded .957 at SS at AA last year then .960 for the Pirates in 39 games.
I like Peguero to start at 2B opposite Oneil Cruz at SS in 2024, and if needed, Peguero should be the first option at SS if Cruz needs a break.
Okay, now look at Nick Gonzales’s numbers from last year…60 XBHs. Granted, he has his issues, but everyone is sleeping on this kid. I’m not saying he figures everything out this year, but I believe he has a higher probability of having a more productive year at the plate than his competition at 2B.
Jared Triolo hit .290 during his first months in the bigs, and is a Gold Glove winner at 3B.
I'd clear the way and give 2B to Triolo
There's a few issues with him taking over the keystone.
Triolo can't do enough in spring to over take what they have already planned
Its Peguero with them taking a long look at his power
Remember this guy has the tools, it all comes down to letting him play full time
If Sheltless would just let the kids stop hitting on their own instead of over coaching
He yaps about the hour minimum discussion spent daily on match ups for the 137TH different card in 137G
Also, I've followed JT since 2021 GBO
FYI, he has 10 BIG league starts at Keystone, 9 in MILB
He can handle but i've heard him say thats his least comfortable out of the 4 pos
But the real reason is he's best b/u at 4 other pos
JT has a Ben Zobrist ceiling, sacrificing some power for speed
I'm never doubting this guy. He's proved the lists wrong, even peeps in GBO fall of 2021
"won't make it past Altoona"
Also, you will want to be ready when Rowdy gets too heavy to carry at 1B
move Triolo over there as fast as possible before the idiot sees Joe bored and runs him out there to create the next Hayes throwing Error
Super U feels right for Triolo to me.
He will play his way onto the starting 8, w a far above average glove and good start last year
He could be starting 8 but without a regular position--I know he's not the next Ben Zobrist, but his usage could be patterned after Zobrist's, who would get significant innings at four or more positions resulting in 600+ PAs during his prime.
Truthfully, no one knows who or what may be in the future, of course. But I do know now that Triolo's .298 average from some 50 games last year, along with his far above average glove, shows far superior than any others mentioned in the discussion around 2B.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s regular 2B. This generation’s Neil Walker could be his role. But I’m thinking he’s more JHay.
In reality, either one works. And I’m with you that he’s an integral member of the team this year.
Alika's hitting was giving me hope in Indy, then he got to Pittsburgh.
I really have no hope for this team in terms of wins. Not enough pitching, but I am curious to see how certain players perform this year: Cruz, Peggy, Jack, Henry...can they take another step forward? Can Ke continue to improve at the plate and become a more complete player? Can Triolo add some power and make himself into more of an everyday player? I really like his defensive game. Will Ro rebound and surprise us? That's kinda where I'm at with this team.
Why did you stop at Ro, Ro, Ro Rotation, needs set for 2025
Ro
Ortiz
Skenes
Jones
Priester
Ashcraft
Sullivan
Brubaker
Burrows
Toss them in whenever, just get a look at all
Kranick was next, but he will throw a no hitter for the Mets against us
Make sure Harington and the two 21 yr olds advance and are knocking for next year
honestly great position to be in as a fan, I'm looking forward to it.
While I would have preferred they aim higher than Santana, I’d have preferred they just cut Tellez and resign Santana for that amount. I think the way they approached the position this offseason says a lot about their piss poor approach to risk management.
For a team that’s so risk averse, Tellez is actually a massive (and foolish) gamble. If everything goes well he’s maybe a 1 WAR player (that’d be a career year for him). The defense puts his floor in Tsutsugo territory. Santana’s defense would mean he’s probably at least replacement level if the bat falls off. So we they took that gamble to save $2 MM measly dollars? The benefit sure isn’t in the upside of Tellez.
I think Santana signing yesterday.... and Snell, Montgomery and 40% of the FAs still unsigned means the offseason isn't over. It's just every team is now getting wise on the benefit of waiting until you can use the Injured List to open up roster spots.
This offseason is the first time I’ve ever heard of this theory. When are teams able to start placing players on the injured list?
I believe when pitchers and catchers report
Yep
We are on the same page!
Ok... so here's the move that seems in character for the Pirates this off-season... see if the Royals will take Gonzalez and Kennedy for M. J. Melendez. Then the Pirates can have 2 catchers who play RF badly. At least Melendez is, by all accounts, a good catcher.
Yep, we need another guy that strikes out a lot too.
What does fix mean in this context?
Fit?