48 Comments

OT: Happy College Football Saturday to those who celebrate.

Expand full comment

The Cruz change should have happened 2023 off season to be ready for 2024 regular season, but I guess better late than never.

For me Bednar needs to be shut down for year, so he can get 100% healthy and maybe lose a few pounds. As appearances for him seem to show excessive girth around the middle...

Expand full comment

For EPL fans, we could adopt Everton--they just gave up 3 goals in the last 10 minutes to lose 3-2, which I guess is something expected from Everton. But then how much agony can we take?

Expand full comment

A worst case outcome for Cruz isn’t a 30-homer season. He has 37 career homers in 900 PA, a 30-homer season would be a moderate breakout.

Expand full comment

I'm probably in the minority, maybe the only one thinking it, I'd try to extend Bednar this off-season at a team friendly deal. Something like 3 years at $14 mil with an option for year 4 at $6 mil ($1 mil buyout).

$2 mil bonus, $4 mil a year '25, '26, and '27.

Option on '28 $6 mil. $20 mil total

Option declined $15 mil total.

My reasoning, his stuff isn't to far from his elite seasons. He's still great in the community and seems like a genuinely good person. Being the closer is not a given to him but needs to be earned.

I'd definitely wait till the off season to see how he handles lower leverage situations first though.

Expand full comment

Problem is he's already at $4.5M this year.

But it's worth negotiating with his agent, we think he wants to stay in the Burgh, we should be able to get a hometown discount.

Expand full comment

Performance based bonuses are not allowed under the basic agreement. The only thing that is allowed is a bonus based on how many games a player reaches or how many starts a picture achieves. Etc.

Expand full comment

Thanks,

I thought All Star game appearances, top whatever in CYA award, was allowed to be part of a bonus structure with games played and so forth. Glad to know it isn't.

Expand full comment

Buy low. If he were a starting pitcher, this would be a bad 4-game stretch. Relief pitchers are always subject to small-sample bias. These are the types of the moves that the Pirates need to make to become competitive. I agree with this idea 100%, I think a decent coaching staff would have Bednar back to being Bednar in 2025. Besides, you know I am opposed to the whole idea of a closer and think it should always be done by committee with the best relief pitcher being a fireman and next best handling the toughest part of the lineup in close games, whether that part of the lineup comes up in the 7th 8th or 9th inning of a close game.

Expand full comment

Definitely out of the box, but I dont hate the idea behind it. Might even be able to negotiate lower based on this season and add in some nice performance based incentives- 500k for 30 saves, 500k for 40?

Expand full comment

Performance based bonuses are not allowed under MLB rules.

Expand full comment

Just looked it up, they most definitely can get bonuses for performance based incentives.

All Star appearances

Innings pitched, game appearances, games finished.

They can't be based off of results though. For example instead of paying for saves, the team pays the bonus for games finished.

Expand full comment

Definitely put in performance base incentives.

Expand full comment

Sticking by Bednar is just another example of what happens when you rely too much on data and have no feel for the game. Bednar’s “stuff” on paper has been fine this season, aside from walks being up slightly. The data tells you he’ll bounce back any day now, except he’s struggled all season..

In reality, this is a move that should’ve happened months ago when they were still in the race. Now it’s too little too late and doesn’t matter. Might as well continue to throw him out there in the 9th. Might lose out the rest of the season and hopefully cost a few men their jobs.

Expand full comment

Good points. For those of us who like to use data, we’d counter argue that this type of variance in performance from relievers is to be expected, except for the most elite guys like Clase. It’s why I’d argue you should trade relievers at peak value.

Expand full comment

I agree with trading relievers at peak value but Cherington missed the 2 opportunities for that with Bednar. Before the 2023 trade deadline and after the 2023 season. I'm probably crazy but I think buying out his first year of free agency is the smart move now, if it's team friendly. If he gets back to being a good or elite reliever they have value either on the team or by trade. If he continues to regress it doesn't break the teams back financially.

Expand full comment

I 100% agree and tend to believe the only reason Bednar is still on the team is because of PR. If he wasn’t a local product and considered a “face of the franchise”, he would’ve been long gone by now.

Expand full comment

Yeah it’s all about selling tickets.

Expand full comment

My only problem with Cruz, other than kis K's, is his lack of hustle out of the box.

Expand full comment

i think he thinks he is being cautious with his leg and would rather trot around the bases from a home run than the risk of injury over beating out a infield hit

Expand full comment

He can also cover a lot of ground without looking like he's running hard. Obviously, he could cover even more ground by running harder but I think you're right that he's trying to strike the right balance between occasionally getting an extra base and staying healthy.

Expand full comment

he looked hard nosed when he slide into home last night

Expand full comment

Long way to go for Cruz in CF. Almost a collision with BRey yesterday on a ball in the gap, replay showed Cruz was not calling for it. Reynolds peeled off at the very last second. His throws to cut-off have been short, near the ground or worse. He tried to get a runner going first to third, his instinct is to use his cannon and go to third, so he's got to learn what the game situation is, the speed of both runner and hitter, and make the correct play, not the highlight reel play. But I'm glad they made the move now.

Expand full comment

Bednar was completely mismanaged by this organization. Inexcusable for experienced baseball men to make such a dumb decision with him to start the season, then hang on like there was no other option while he struggled. As far as accountability for Bednar: he needs to get into better shape. He's too heavy, which may aggravate his back issues.

Cruz will be fine in CF. His athleticism will play well there. His arm will be a game changer. This organization has a core of players good enough to be playoff contenders. The off-season should be all about finding another productive bat or two and fixing the bullpen. It also should be about finding leadership to better focus these players on strong fundamentals. This team is not sound in the field, on the base paths and in the batter's box. They often play like a middle school team. That needs to change.

Expand full comment

Couldn't agree more on Bednar--starting him in the majors after he essentially missed ST is inexcusable, but it also didn't shock me given how Shelton likes to handle his favorites. Obviously the games he cost us early won't be the difference in making the postseason and in the end only gives us better lottery odds, but it very easily could have cost us had we not collapsed in August.

And I've been thinking about Bednar's conditioning too. In any case, he's got to try something different this offseason and that would seem to be a good place to start.

Expand full comment

I don't agree that Bednar was rushed back in April. It's a totally different build-up for a starter vs a one-inning reliever. So he had maybe 2 poor outings, but he was fine by mid-April and went onto very good May-July.

Expand full comment

Maybe I have higher standards for a closer, but he gave up runs in 6 of his 12 April outings (and then his first outing in May), blowing 3 saves and taking a loss when he came in a 0-0 game.

Expand full comment

He had a blown save and loss on Apr. 9. And a loss on Apr. 26. So some of those April games he had a multi-run lead and/or was brought in mop up role just to get work. His next blown save was nearly 4 months later Aug. 7!! This narrative that he had a bad "season" just isn't accurate. August was a train wreck, Meccage and Marin should be looking at the data to try and pinpoint his issues. The eye test was he didn't have his usual command to put his FB where it needed to be.

Expand full comment

BR's game log shows that he blew a save on March 31 though we then scored and he got the win, then he blew a save on April 6 but we also won, then on April 9 as you note, a game we lost, then the loss on the 26th as you note. On April 27 he did get the save but only because we had a 3-run lead and he only gave up 2 runs. One reason he didn't blow a save again until August 7 was that he only pitched a total of 13 innings in June and July. He did have a good May, but even then he averaged under 7 K's per 9 when the last three years he averaged above 11 K's per 9.

I love Bednar, but he's not been close to the dominant reliever that he was the last three years and I think he'd agree with that.

Expand full comment

I was working from MLB.com game logs. ?? Maybe one or the other have errors!

Expand full comment

I still think we find a way to swap for the younger bednar and ride him for 3 years of closer success before sending him away the equivalent of this past year which was missed on david

Expand full comment

Acquiring Will could be fun--in 25.2 innings in AA, he has 32 Ks but 34 BBs.

Expand full comment

was thinking about the marketing hit and how to avoid it if we move on from David Bednar

acquiring his brother and acquiring another yinzer like Happ or putting Neil Walker as manager

Expand full comment

Austin Hendrick on a free.

Expand full comment

Trade for austin kitchen from the marlins as a deepcut south hills yinzer

Expand full comment

like

Expand full comment

re: Cruz

why does this have to be so permanant? No reason why he cant play center field from time to time and short stop from time to time - - - not to mention first base from time to time

Expand full comment

Can't have that much uncertainty when every lineup has to be scheduled three years in advance.

Expand full comment

but somehow not reveiled until five minutes before gametime

Expand full comment

Put him on the mound as the new closer

Expand full comment

it would be so fun to see him on the mound

Expand full comment

A cruz missile themed jog in from center field as he unleashes 98-100 on the opponents sounds like a hell of a time

Expand full comment

Hey, it's worked for Bae, Davis, Triolo and a host of others. Positional flexibility is a core value of this organization. We wouldn't want to be stuck with an athlete that excels at only one position, after all. Great take!

Expand full comment

It'd be nice if hitter was one of those positions just once.

Expand full comment

besides Bae at second base, what complaints do you have about their fielding capabilities at all those positions?

Expand full comment

re: Bedner

I hope they can take this opportunity to be creative and try him out as an opener

Expand full comment

So maybe a 7 or 8 man rotation next year? It's great that being careful with the starters avoids injuries. This year, only Jones, Falter, Perez, Gonzalez and several relievers have spent time on the IL (no more DL, thank goodness!). With more in the rotation and more openers and less innings for the best pitchers, maybe the organization can get credit for being more equitable between major league and non-major league talents!

Expand full comment

I think each team's manager should be required to throw the 8th inning of every game

Expand full comment