Saturday Thoughts: Is Paul Skenes the actual Cy Young favorite?
A look at Skenes' shot to win the Cy Young as a rookie
It was an incredible rookie season for former first-overall pick Paul Skenes. Less than a year after signing with the Pirates, Skenes was named the starter for the All-Star game.
He went on to have perhaps the best rookie season a pitcher has ever had.
It’s already gotten him recognition as Baseball Digests’ Rookie of the Year, and he was named to the All-MLB first-team a few days ago.
Next week, he’ll likely win Rookie of the Year from the BBWAA, and there is another award he is a finalist for—NL Cy Young.
Skenes, 22, only made 23 starts but is among the final three for NL pitchers for the Cy Young, with Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler the other two.
Does Skenes have an actual shot at the Cy Young?
Historical Factor
Just as face value, only one rookie pitcher has won the Cy Young, Fernando Valenzuela in 1981.
On top of that, if you look back at the past 30 NL Cy Young winners, Skenes would have the lowest number of starts to win the award in a season that wasn’t cut short.
Trevor Bauer won the 2020 Cy Young during the 60-game COVID-shortened season after making 11 starts. During the strike-shortened 1994 season, Greg Maddux won the NL Young with just 25 starts.
Skenes started 23 games in 2024, logging 133 innings in that span.
He also won 13 games, which, since the award began, only four starting pitchers to win the Cy Young had fewer wins than that. Valenzuela also had 13.
One of those four pitchers was Bauer, who won his during the 60-game schedule in 2020. Corbin Burnes (2021, Milwaukee) and Jacob de Grom (2018, 2019 with the Mets) were the only other instances.
So, history isn’t necessarily on his side right now when it comes to winning it, but there is certainly some precedent.
Opposition
Skenes will go up against two pitchers with more traditional numbers when it comes to workload. Sale won 18 games and made 29 starts, while Wheeler also won 16 over 32 starts.
For Sale, it was a brilliant return to form for him, as he also took home Comeback Player of the Year. His 177.2 innings pitched is the most he’s logged since 2017. His slider picked up a 42.7% whiff rate while picking up 238 strikeouts overall.
His 174 ERA+ is the second-best of his career, as he put up a 209 mark in 2018 with the Red Sox.
Pitching for the Phillies, Wheeler posted a 16-7 record with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 224 batters over 200 innings pitched. It was the second time in his career that he tossed at least 200 innings. He got at least a 30% whiff rate with his sweeper, curveball, and splitter.
Skenes’ rookie season
It was a fantastic and storybook season for Skenes, as he posted an 11-3 record with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts across 133 innings pitched. His ERA+ was an insane 214.
In just his second major league start, Skenes struck out 11 batters across six no-hit innings while facing the Cubs (who he also faced in his debut). It was one of two double-digit strikeout games but just one of seven shutout games he tossed (out of 23).
That means Skenes tossed a shutout game in 30% of his starts.
Key Numbers
Chris Sale
18-3 record
2.38 ERA (2.64 xFIP)
6.4 fWAR, 6.2 bWAR
174 ERA+
Zack Wheeler
16-7 record
2.57 ERA (3.30 xFIP)
5.4 fWAR, 6.1 bWAR
158 ERA+
Paul Skenes
11-3 record
1.96 ERA (2.54 xFIP)
4.3 fWAR, 5.9 bWAR
214 ERA+
Final Thoughts
I think there is a legitimate chance that Skenes could walk away as the Cy Young winner this year. He played in fewer games than the rest, and he didn’t finish too far behind them in WAR, and his ERA+ is one of the better numbers in recent history.
Depending on whether you are arguing for or against, you could make the case that those added starts could only help or help level out his case.
We know how ‘traditional’ baseball can sometimes be, and the only major case that Skenes has working against him is that he only won 11 games and started 23. That, of course, feeds into that kind of ‘traditional’ thinking.
Regardless, it was a fantastic season for Skenes, the start of what could be an extraordinary career.
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I'm changing your wording to fit my opinion. I think there is a slim chance that Skenes can walk away with the Cy Young but a legitimate case can be made that his chances should be higher. I think Sale (right ro wrong) will garner MVP type support regarding how important his season was considering Strider was out for the year and Fried was out some. He really was incredibly important for Braves making the playoffs. I also think he will get some support (and this should't count) as a HOF player who has never won the Cy Young sometimes just because some of his great years(which would have won Cy's in other years) were just slightly less great than somebody else in that same year(bad luck?). It is hard to believe he does not have a Cy at this point. He was top 5 for 7 straight years. Just my opinion but I don't see Skenes having a decent shot vs. Sale.
He’d of had two no hitters this year if it weren’t for limiting him to 6 innings