John (or someone)--how were the reports ordered? Initially it looked like by signing bonus but after the first few, that clearly wasn't the case. Is it order they put pen to paper? Does it imply anything about how the FO person sees their potential?
I wouldn't read into the order at all. I got a list of names/bio info from someone about two weeks ahead of January 15th. I had to add one name mistakenly left off, plus I also had to add Morel into the list before sending it to Anthony for the January 15th signing article. You're just seeing how I copied the list into an email. I think I even changed the order when writing it up because I skipped ahead by mistake.
Thanks John for getting the insight from a member of the FO! And I love the tidbit about Robinson Smith being named after Jackie Robinson. What a great story he'll be if he makes it.
I said that when I first heard the big names in the group, but then the last 17-18 names I found out didn't produce a new country. I was a little surprised that there was nothing from Colombia, Mexico, Nicaragua and Panama. I wouldn't expect something from all of them each year, but I also don't expect a complete shutout from the group
The kid has all of the confidence in the world. An interview he gave in Australia said he was watching the Hall of Fame announcement and he hoped one day they were talking about him the same way
The Pirates desperately need a position player that projects to be a superstar/perennial all-star. They haven’t had a guy like that since McCutchen, and I don’t think it’s possible to win without one. I don’t care if it’s Griffin or Morel or the kid from Uganda, they really need one of these guys to pop.
It seems like the values are reversed for Dela Santos vs Morel. $2.2M is a huge amount for DelaSantos. While I love the high IQ comment, whew it still seems like an overpay. When Morel dropped in their laps at last minute, I'm sure it was too late to renege on Dela Santos if Kwan wants to retain any credibility with prospects. We need to hit on one of these two getting to the bigs, that's for sure.
Kwan had nothing to do with signing De Los Santos. He wasn't with the Pirates when JDLS agreed well over a year ago. As Wilbur said, Morel agreed to a deal early and then improved a lot while he was hidden away on the back fields, so his bonus is still looked like as a bargain, even though they nearly doubled the Dodgers price. He literally got every dollar they had left, so that's where the bonus amount came from. They really aren't comparable situations.
Think you missed my point. Clearly Morel is the more valuable prospect and we paid less for him than Delos Santos. Secondly, Kwan could not renege on Vizcaino's arranged deal with Delos Santos. It's all about good faith and handshake agreements with the DR signings.
I didn't miss your point, I explained why you can't look at the bonus amount equally with them. Morel was asked by the Dodgers to wait to sign until 2026. He decided to test the market and the Pirates gave him everything they had. He was capped by the available pool and a time limit. I also mentioned that the kid was hidden, so asking some team to pay him more than the Pirates based on a 2022 scouting report doesn't make sense. The Pirates saw him, I shared videos here that they got too that no one else had, then gave him everything.
JDLS got his deal at 14 when possibly zero dollars was "spent" on this class. Don't look past the part that he's consistently rated as a top 20-30 prospect in the class and that's what they cost in that range.
You can't compare two completely different situations. One got what he was worth, one got what they had.
The reality seems to be that, in the vast majority of situations, both teams and players honor these handshake deals. Just backing out because "we decided it was too much" (or too little) doesn't seem to happen, or at least very seldom. I'd imagine the teams and buscones don't want to lose credibility with the other side. Basically, it's a terrible system that everybody is trying to make work out as best they can.
I should have pointed out in my response that there didn't sound like an ounce of regret with De Los Santos, but it was more of a don't sleep on Morel comparison. JDLS has been attached to the Pirates so long that there is plenty out there to read, more than anyone else. Morel is the shiny toy that has been hidden away by the Dodgers, likely due to his bargain bonus amount.
As for what you just said, there's definitely a real aversion to backing out of deals unless there is a major reason. You don't want to give someone a handshake deal early, then back out late because you won't be in good graces with the trainer, who loses up to 30% of that bonus money. These trainers feed, house, train tons of players hoping to strike it big and most don't ever sign. I have no idea what cut they got from JDLS, but let's say it was $500K. You just made yourself a major enemy if you back out of that deal. Plus others see what you did and deal with your accordingly.
I meant the backing out part more as a hypothetical. I’d guess that, once these handshakes occur, they just treat it as done and wait to get these kids at the academy without worrying about analyzing value or anything.
One other factor that’d make backing out a bad idea — Say you back out of JDLS’s deal. What do you do with $2M+? The top guys are gone. Maybe you can find a bunch of mid-level guys to spend it on, maybe not. Even if (hypothetically) you have doubts whether JDLS is worth quite that much, you’d still probably rather have him than a bunch of mid-level guys. Second guessing yourself in this dumb system strikes me as unproductive.
A lot of this depends on timing. If the Pirates are right about Morel, he might’ve gotten $3-4M if he hadn’t agreed to the handshake deal with LA two years ago. Bonus amounts frequently don’t reflect scouting views of players by the time they sign. Idiotic system.
I find it interesting that the focus is almost always on SS. Yes, I get the whole athleticism thing and 'can be moved later' argument; however there has been some success with power bats that play power positions such as Tony Blanco. If you can pick up a towering power bat who already is showing skills at a corner position then there is value in that experience.
Now I do see that flexibility of SS to a 2b or outfield of course. I'd also like to see some more talent acquired in the C position which usually seems very weak.
Lastly, WTM or John is it possible to at some point have an article put together on recent international classes to detail what development is occurring with recent classes. It's cool to see the new shiny toys but it would be great to have access to information on those drafted youngsters to understand their progress - as well noted here - outside of just statistical results, as development with these kids can be weight and strength, bat speed, running speed and/or twitch speed, contact ability, language development, and potential as seen from the club based on what they thought was possible when originally signed. I just find the whole international groups fascinating.
I'd take a look at IFAs across all of baseball. Corner bats like you describe are exceptionally rare.
And even if they weren't, is it that great of an idea to highly value early bloomers who likely have little physical projection left? You *don't* want an Alex Mojica or Luis Heredia, dudes who only seemed good due to their physical prowess over same-aged players who actually had projection remaining.
On your first point, I think C22 actually did something roughly like that back in BD days.
It’s an idea. Hopefully I’d be able to find the BA int’l lists going back a ways.
Your point about remaining projection fits well with the recurring theme of athleticism in John’s reports above. I’m hoping they’ve firmly decided on a productive strategy AND will execute it well.
Tying that back into my general excitement for this class, I wonder what an expected hit rate would be by quality of IFA.
With full respect to bonus number being a rough equivalent to quality, at best, it does seem like seven-figure dudes are the baseline for "good" prospect versus the far greater number of lower-bonus guys.
Would hitting on 1 in 4 bonus babies be good? 1 in 10? Adding up Shalin and Yordany into these dudes starts getting them into the conversation of how many shots at success SHOULD get them into one or two hits.
It probably matters how you qualify hitting on a player. I was trying to explain the rate to someone just using the Dominican because it produces over half of the signings each year.
In the last 40 years, 84 Dominican players have debuted and produced 10 WAR. Even if you use a 10-year buffer to give them time to reach that mark, it's basically three per year.
Now this year alone, at least 88 kids from the Dominican signed for at least $300,000, with 37 getting $750K+. If you're getting three 10+ WAR guys (career) out of a group that includes those types of bonuses, plus another 500+ lower bonuses, your chance of hitting is extremely low on a big bonus guy.
I can remember chatting with ole Lee Foo who was usually adamant that they should spread the money around to low bonus players because of the success of guys like Starling Marte. The denominator matters!
Here, unfortunately, it appears neither "class" of prospect has particularly high odds.
It seems to run a lot like DSL stats. You can be the worst hitter or the best hitter in the league and your odds of making it are basically the same. I was shocked when I figured that out 4-5 years ago. And I was only using "getting the the majors" as making it. Same goes for pitchers
If two of these guys make the majors, it is an amazing successful draft. That’s all we need. Just two from everyone of these yearly drafts and the Pirates will be right back in it.
Some good points and I hope the Pirates find a way to develop a stronger MiLB feeder program. We have the best 24U Rotation in Baseball, and we should have extended our payroll this year to include a power hitting LH bat. Instead we are pissing away the payroll trying to find $7 mil and under Veterans to build a short-term core. They not only take up seats on the bench and in the Clubhouse, but more importantly, they get AB's that are drastically needed by younger players trying to develop at the MLB level.
The Pirates Org needs to decide NOW what they want to be when or if they grow up! Pitchers like Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Harrington, Ashcraft, Barco etc. need to know this org will find them the offense to compete for wins. If not they are just waiting for their time to leave.
This class reminds me of the old Cam Bonifay formula, power bats and power arms. More guys than usual project to hit for power . . . if they hit at all, of course, which most won’t. Lots of pitchers already get over 90, although with pitchers it’s always harder to know what that means.
Is that a good thing? On the hitting side I mean. My intuition tells me that teams run like the Bucs should take a bigger dice roll on tools like Bonifay did.
You're going to see more guys like this in the future. Fresh arms/athleticism on the pitching side, raw power/athletic on the hitting side, in-game results for older players aka guys passed over in this signing class.
One way to combat no more bonus pool space is agreeing to deals with kids from this class for the next class. Maybe you up the bonus offer to cover money they would have made in salary this year, then monitor their training until January 15th.
Interesting. Athleticism is clearly something they’re emphasizing in the draft, especially prep Ps. I think I’ve commented on that a couple times. I think it’s why they’ve been successful so far with prep Ps making good progress on command.
One thing I’ve noticed with their int’l pitchers is they get to the FCL and Bradenton, quite a few show good arms, but the command never develops. It’s a near universal problem with their LatAm Ps. I don’t know whether they’ve consciously changed their approach, but some dramatic change was needed.
Someone hook Luis Cruz with my grandmother to fatten him up a bit. 6'1" and 155 is a beanpole.
John (or someone)--how were the reports ordered? Initially it looked like by signing bonus but after the first few, that clearly wasn't the case. Is it order they put pen to paper? Does it imply anything about how the FO person sees their potential?
I wouldn't read into the order at all. I got a list of names/bio info from someone about two weeks ahead of January 15th. I had to add one name mistakenly left off, plus I also had to add Morel into the list before sending it to Anthony for the January 15th signing article. You're just seeing how I copied the list into an email. I think I even changed the order when writing it up because I skipped ahead by mistake.
Thanks John for getting the insight from a member of the FO! And I love the tidbit about Robinson Smith being named after Jackie Robinson. What a great story he'll be if he makes it.
Isn't this group remarkably geographically diverse? Feels like there's a ton of countries represented here.
I said that when I first heard the big names in the group, but then the last 17-18 names I found out didn't produce a new country. I was a little surprised that there was nothing from Colombia, Mexico, Nicaragua and Panama. I wouldn't expect something from all of them each year, but I also don't expect a complete shutout from the group
great point, those first two especially seem like heavy hitters in a normal year.
The kid has all of the confidence in the world. An interview he gave in Australia said he was watching the Hall of Fame announcement and he hoped one day they were talking about him the same way
Does he tell hitters to sit the fuck down?
Yes, except he adds "Mate" at the end
That's a relevant predictor of success!
Great stuff John, glad to have your input on thus site. Also good comments below!
Thank you. I enjoy adding stuff once in a while. I'm basically just doing Pirates history writing, so it's a break from the usual
I've soured on IFAs in general, let alone from the Pirates, but I gotta say this class is the first in years that actually excites me.
Notwithstanding my other comment, this class interests me way more than the usual.
I was excited when we signed Shim...hope your excitement is more justified than mine was.
Though after reading the summaries, I'm excited too.
Of course, just wait until they all hit .170 with a 40% K rate. 🙂
The Pirates desperately need a position player that projects to be a superstar/perennial all-star. They haven’t had a guy like that since McCutchen, and I don’t think it’s possible to win without one. I don’t care if it’s Griffin or Morel or the kid from Uganda, they really need one of these guys to pop.
It seems like the values are reversed for Dela Santos vs Morel. $2.2M is a huge amount for DelaSantos. While I love the high IQ comment, whew it still seems like an overpay. When Morel dropped in their laps at last minute, I'm sure it was too late to renege on Dela Santos if Kwan wants to retain any credibility with prospects. We need to hit on one of these two getting to the bigs, that's for sure.
Kwan had nothing to do with signing De Los Santos. He wasn't with the Pirates when JDLS agreed well over a year ago. As Wilbur said, Morel agreed to a deal early and then improved a lot while he was hidden away on the back fields, so his bonus is still looked like as a bargain, even though they nearly doubled the Dodgers price. He literally got every dollar they had left, so that's where the bonus amount came from. They really aren't comparable situations.
Think you missed my point. Clearly Morel is the more valuable prospect and we paid less for him than Delos Santos. Secondly, Kwan could not renege on Vizcaino's arranged deal with Delos Santos. It's all about good faith and handshake agreements with the DR signings.
I didn't miss your point, I explained why you can't look at the bonus amount equally with them. Morel was asked by the Dodgers to wait to sign until 2026. He decided to test the market and the Pirates gave him everything they had. He was capped by the available pool and a time limit. I also mentioned that the kid was hidden, so asking some team to pay him more than the Pirates based on a 2022 scouting report doesn't make sense. The Pirates saw him, I shared videos here that they got too that no one else had, then gave him everything.
JDLS got his deal at 14 when possibly zero dollars was "spent" on this class. Don't look past the part that he's consistently rated as a top 20-30 prospect in the class and that's what they cost in that range.
You can't compare two completely different situations. One got what he was worth, one got what they had.
The reality seems to be that, in the vast majority of situations, both teams and players honor these handshake deals. Just backing out because "we decided it was too much" (or too little) doesn't seem to happen, or at least very seldom. I'd imagine the teams and buscones don't want to lose credibility with the other side. Basically, it's a terrible system that everybody is trying to make work out as best they can.
I should have pointed out in my response that there didn't sound like an ounce of regret with De Los Santos, but it was more of a don't sleep on Morel comparison. JDLS has been attached to the Pirates so long that there is plenty out there to read, more than anyone else. Morel is the shiny toy that has been hidden away by the Dodgers, likely due to his bargain bonus amount.
As for what you just said, there's definitely a real aversion to backing out of deals unless there is a major reason. You don't want to give someone a handshake deal early, then back out late because you won't be in good graces with the trainer, who loses up to 30% of that bonus money. These trainers feed, house, train tons of players hoping to strike it big and most don't ever sign. I have no idea what cut they got from JDLS, but let's say it was $500K. You just made yourself a major enemy if you back out of that deal. Plus others see what you did and deal with your accordingly.
I meant the backing out part more as a hypothetical. I’d guess that, once these handshakes occur, they just treat it as done and wait to get these kids at the academy without worrying about analyzing value or anything.
One other factor that’d make backing out a bad idea — Say you back out of JDLS’s deal. What do you do with $2M+? The top guys are gone. Maybe you can find a bunch of mid-level guys to spend it on, maybe not. Even if (hypothetically) you have doubts whether JDLS is worth quite that much, you’d still probably rather have him than a bunch of mid-level guys. Second guessing yourself in this dumb system strikes me as unproductive.
A lot of this depends on timing. If the Pirates are right about Morel, he might’ve gotten $3-4M if he hadn’t agreed to the handshake deal with LA two years ago. Bonus amounts frequently don’t reflect scouting views of players by the time they sign. Idiotic system.
Thanks John. Great insights. I too like Morel. Maybe another Cruz.
I find it interesting that the focus is almost always on SS. Yes, I get the whole athleticism thing and 'can be moved later' argument; however there has been some success with power bats that play power positions such as Tony Blanco. If you can pick up a towering power bat who already is showing skills at a corner position then there is value in that experience.
Now I do see that flexibility of SS to a 2b or outfield of course. I'd also like to see some more talent acquired in the C position which usually seems very weak.
Lastly, WTM or John is it possible to at some point have an article put together on recent international classes to detail what development is occurring with recent classes. It's cool to see the new shiny toys but it would be great to have access to information on those drafted youngsters to understand their progress - as well noted here - outside of just statistical results, as development with these kids can be weight and strength, bat speed, running speed and/or twitch speed, contact ability, language development, and potential as seen from the club based on what they thought was possible when originally signed. I just find the whole international groups fascinating.
I'd take a look at IFAs across all of baseball. Corner bats like you describe are exceptionally rare.
And even if they weren't, is it that great of an idea to highly value early bloomers who likely have little physical projection left? You *don't* want an Alex Mojica or Luis Heredia, dudes who only seemed good due to their physical prowess over same-aged players who actually had projection remaining.
On your first point, I think C22 actually did something roughly like that back in BD days.
It’s an idea. Hopefully I’d be able to find the BA int’l lists going back a ways.
Your point about remaining projection fits well with the recurring theme of athleticism in John’s reports above. I’m hoping they’ve firmly decided on a productive strategy AND will execute it well.
Tying that back into my general excitement for this class, I wonder what an expected hit rate would be by quality of IFA.
With full respect to bonus number being a rough equivalent to quality, at best, it does seem like seven-figure dudes are the baseline for "good" prospect versus the far greater number of lower-bonus guys.
Would hitting on 1 in 4 bonus babies be good? 1 in 10? Adding up Shalin and Yordany into these dudes starts getting them into the conversation of how many shots at success SHOULD get them into one or two hits.
It probably matters how you qualify hitting on a player. I was trying to explain the rate to someone just using the Dominican because it produces over half of the signings each year.
In the last 40 years, 84 Dominican players have debuted and produced 10 WAR. Even if you use a 10-year buffer to give them time to reach that mark, it's basically three per year.
Now this year alone, at least 88 kids from the Dominican signed for at least $300,000, with 37 getting $750K+. If you're getting three 10+ WAR guys (career) out of a group that includes those types of bonuses, plus another 500+ lower bonuses, your chance of hitting is extremely low on a big bonus guy.
That's phenomenal, John. Thank you!
I can remember chatting with ole Lee Foo who was usually adamant that they should spread the money around to low bonus players because of the success of guys like Starling Marte. The denominator matters!
Here, unfortunately, it appears neither "class" of prospect has particularly high odds.
It seems to run a lot like DSL stats. You can be the worst hitter or the best hitter in the league and your odds of making it are basically the same. I was shocked when I figured that out 4-5 years ago. And I was only using "getting the the majors" as making it. Same goes for pitchers
I've thought about doing some sort of class-by-class update.
Maybe put it out there to the following for feedback?
If two of these guys make the majors, it is an amazing successful draft. That’s all we need. Just two from everyone of these yearly drafts and the Pirates will be right back in it.
Some good points and I hope the Pirates find a way to develop a stronger MiLB feeder program. We have the best 24U Rotation in Baseball, and we should have extended our payroll this year to include a power hitting LH bat. Instead we are pissing away the payroll trying to find $7 mil and under Veterans to build a short-term core. They not only take up seats on the bench and in the Clubhouse, but more importantly, they get AB's that are drastically needed by younger players trying to develop at the MLB level.
The Pirates Org needs to decide NOW what they want to be when or if they grow up! Pitchers like Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Harrington, Ashcraft, Barco etc. need to know this org will find them the offense to compete for wins. If not they are just waiting for their time to leave.
This class reminds me of the old Cam Bonifay formula, power bats and power arms. More guys than usual project to hit for power . . . if they hit at all, of course, which most won’t. Lots of pitchers already get over 90, although with pitchers it’s always harder to know what that means.
Is that a good thing? On the hitting side I mean. My intuition tells me that teams run like the Bucs should take a bigger dice roll on tools like Bonifay did.
I think/hope that’s what they’re doing by going for athleticism.
You're going to see more guys like this in the future. Fresh arms/athleticism on the pitching side, raw power/athletic on the hitting side, in-game results for older players aka guys passed over in this signing class.
One way to combat no more bonus pool space is agreeing to deals with kids from this class for the next class. Maybe you up the bonus offer to cover money they would have made in salary this year, then monitor their training until January 15th.
Interesting. Athleticism is clearly something they’re emphasizing in the draft, especially prep Ps. I think I’ve commented on that a couple times. I think it’s why they’ve been successful so far with prep Ps making good progress on command.
One thing I’ve noticed with their int’l pitchers is they get to the FCL and Bradenton, quite a few show good arms, but the command never develops. It’s a near universal problem with their LatAm Ps. I don’t know whether they’ve consciously changed their approach, but some dramatic change was needed.