71 Comments

hedges for the win

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Is Canaan Smith-Njigba still considered a prospect at age 24? I was not a fan of him pre-all star game, but something clicked the second half. He looked like a new man in September. .417 batting average with 24 rbi's in 19 games.

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Honestly I think Miguel Andujar had a positive influence on his approach to knocking in runs. Those guys in Indy looked up to Andujar as he seemed to helpful. Reason #83 I am scared that the Pirates will let him walk.

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Can’t be scared to let everyone go. You’ll end up in a paralysis by analysis situation. I don’t think there is much there with Andujar (that big season he had is half a decade ago now), but it was odd he got next to zero chances post trade deadline.

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I couldn't disagree more. That half decade ago was his last full healthy season. I saw him play in person several times this year in the minors and a few in the majors. He actually looks better than with the Yankees. Out of guys with the same amount of major league at bats as he, only Muncy, Olson and JD Martinez had a better RBI rate in the NL. We sometimes want to focus on the young guys so much we forget about guys like Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia who got their chance in their upper twenties. I'm guessing the two reasons they held him back was 1) his arbitration year, 2) Despite being solid in right field, the analytics team wants someone more mobile that can play multiple positions.

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RBIs aren’t an actual skill. I’d be more optimistic if he had something beyond that (which doesn’t matter) but he’s kind of redundant on this team unless they’re gonna hand him the 1B job (which I wouldn’t do).

Also to just hand-wave away five years of poor health is bold. Health is a skill and the best predictor of future health is good health in the past and present.

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So you are saying health is a skill, but RBIs are all by chance? That kind of contradicts the hitters that have runners in scoring position and don't look a the situation. They just swing for the fence or try for a walk.

And you are saying he has nothing beyond RBIs? The major league batting average was .249 this year. How could Andujar (who you are calling 5 bad years) still be a .270 lifetime average? Ignore his RBIs. He had a .338 average in triple A. I guess that meant nothing as well. Neil Walker praised him as saying there isn't a pitch he can't hit, but what does he know.

I wouldn't put him at first either. I would get him in the line-up at DH or right field where he was fundamentally sound with no errors. Unless you like Henry Davis's defense out there better.

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How is he fundamentally sound in RF based on what? Analytics? Scouting? He’s been moved all over because while he has a great arm, the defensive instincts and hands sound like they’re an issue. Honestly, that sounds like Hank Davis. Except for the fact that Hank Davis is nearly five years younger, which is why he should get more of a chance.

In my previous post, I wasn’t saying he was a bad player for five years, I said he had mostly bad health there. Bad health can dull the tools and skills, and again...it’s the best predictor of future health we have. But since you brought it up, his numbers from 2019-2022? A .230/.260/.324. And that’s over 400 plate appearances. Now, that’s undoubtedly effected by his health issues but man, that’s a terrible batting line.

Are knocking in runs proven to be a repeatable skill? Not really. Over a longer period of time it boils down to A) the hitter being very good to begin with, B) a ton of good OBP guys ahead of him or C) both. Andujar’s RBI rate is over 90 plate appearances. That’s less then 15% of a season.

If you want to extrapolate a hot 90 at bats and compare him to guys with far more of a track record like Muncy, Olson and the like, go for it. To me, that’s like comparing Shane Spencer to Frank Thomas and saying they’re the same skill level cause the former had a hot month.

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Started getting the ball off the ground as well. Hopefully something is clicking in.

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Good point. Probably the biggest reason for the strong Sep, and possibly that surge will make him one of the guys who will be protected heading into the Rule 5.

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On another subject, MLBTR in their breakdown of every club, which is very good and thorough, said the Orioles may be looking to deal Mountcastle to a 1B needy club for MLB ready (cheap) pitching.

How does everyone feel about BC making a play for Mountcastle to fill the huge 1B hole on our 26-man roster?

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Maybe something like Brubaker and Nicolas or Ortiz and Nicolas, possibly Preister straight up but not sure this FO wants to give up on him so quick. Mouncastle’s an intriguing name, definitely has his question marks but trade value seems reasonable.

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It's not the who going back to B'more as much as the changes that will have to be made with the Pirates. When Santana left at the trade deadline, the Pirates finished 2023 with Connor Joe playing 1B along with Rivas and Triolo. In the future it could also be a landing spot for the switchhitting Endy Rodriguez when taking a break from Catching.

As far as I can see, the Pirates are planning to continue using multiple players at 1B, which proved to be successful last year. Mountcastle is better defensively at 1B, but are we ready to give up a pitching prospect and possibly reduce Joe's AB?

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Agreed, there definitely is a ripple effect here. I do like Joe at 1B but only as a platoon player, not very interested in him as a RF unless they platoon him with Suwinski. Mountcastle at least gives you an everyday option at 1B, prob a five-hole hitter in this lineup, and saves you a roster spot, which has value. Then, they could Frankenstein 2B instead of 1B with Peguero, Gonzales, and Triolo. I’m not too worried about where Endy plays on non-catching days. This also keeps some powder dry as Mountcastle is arb-eligible, leaving most of your budget available to figure out CF/RF and PITCHING.

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Mountcastle (trade), Bellinger, Patrick Sandoval (trade) and Trevor Bauer (yes, I know) and this team wins the NL Central, imo

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Bellinger = 🚩🚩🚩

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No team is signing Bauer until he publicly acknowledges his mistakes. If he falls on his sword so to speak, maybe a team will take a chance on him, but almost assuredly not the Pirates as they are as risk averse of an organization as any in MLB.

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He did acknowledge bad judgement but we also now have evidence that his accuser told multiple friends she was going to get him to "choke her out" to "get that money".

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Agreed on Joe and I think a platoon of Jack/Joe would be pretty potent in RF. That, of course, complicates matters as there is a hole in CF, 1B, and kinda nudges Hank towards 1B/Dh. But this org has to have the stones to make tough moves on some of these players here to sort it out.

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I’m not opposed to Mountcastle, but I don’t think the Bucs are a match for controllable pitching.

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sources saying Keller to the Twins for Edouard Julien

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I hope your sources are wrong.

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Not to worry . . . .

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whats wrong with a french first baseman with .850+ ops ?

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Worked last time with Adam LaRoche!

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that you for a good example in history to correct me

i agree that was one of the worst trades we´ve ever made

Mike Gonzalez was so good

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puant´

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Is Solometo still sitting 92 with his FB? Is there another tick in there to, say, 94-95?

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He got up to 93/94 this past season. If he can maintain 92/93 throughout an entire season, I think I'd be ok with that. His delivery is deceptive enough it makes that play up more than it should. 94/95 would absolutely be sick, but I think he can keep it around 92/93 and be successful

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Was surprised to see FG peg him at a 30/35 FB

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Maybe use a different word than “peg” next time...

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Why is that? I'm not a zoomer so if the internet addled have turned that formerly normal word into something weird, that's on them and not me.

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Yea FG was not a fan of Solometo in general. He showed that he can get the velocity up, he just needs to show he can maintain it. That'll answer a lot of doubts in some

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I am going to ask the same thing about Bubba Chandler as I did about Lonnie White Jr. Is it possible that Bubba went from a little overrated when we drafted him to now being a little underrated?

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Properly rated!

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Without giving away too much on our eventual prospect rankings we are going to be doing, Bubba is my #2 in the system right now with the highest upside too. So, if there is any underrating going on with him, it isn't here.

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I’ll be curious to see the argument with the rankings and comparing ceilings with Bubba/Skenes and why Bubba’s would be higher.

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Before the past draft my 1a was Jones and 1b was Solometo. Skenes jumped them as soon as he signed with no disrespect intended, Skenes has an extremely high ceiling with a very high floor.

Bubba was right behind Jones and Solometo with an extremely high ceiling but not much of a floor. At the end of the season Bubba raised his floor a lot, still no where near Skenes floor. He looks like he might be right there with Skenes as far as ceiling if not higher.

My personal rankings

A1: Skenes

A2: Bubba

Both have true ace upside, top 10 pitcher league wide.

1a: Solometo

1b: Jones

Both have a strong number 2 ceilings, top 35 pitcher league wide. Extremely good could be considered 1's on middle to lower teams.

2a: Ashcraft (borderline 1c)

2b: Harrington

Very high floor/ceiling is yet to be determined because injury, inconsistent or projection still left. Floor is a mid to backend starting pitcher. Ceiling could be close the floor but could rise considerably next year, if still a prospect it's where Priester would rank.

Several would enter the next tier, more potential than results, like Chen, Barco, Kennedy and so on. To soon to tell but all have at least 3 potential.

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Skenes and Chandler are the same birth year; crazy to think about 🤔

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Oct 28, 2023·edited Oct 28, 2023

Even crazier that Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Harrington, Solometo and Chen are all within an 18 month window from mid 2001 through 2002.

As much as I want an extention for Keller, part of me likes the idea of a trade with Atlanta for Waldrep and Smith-Shawver. I think they both fit in that window.

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That’s a bridge too far for me. Best case scenario is those prospects turn into...what we have here in Mitch Keller.

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Me too, I think Waldrep has true ace potential but has command issues. More dreaming of a rotation with Skenes, Bubba, Waldrep, Solometo and Smith-Shawver or Jones all reaching their ceilings.

I actually think Waldrep has the highest ceiling but the lowest floor out of the group. His splitter change might be the nastiest plus plus pitch in baseball if he can consistently command it and his fastball, his slider is pretty damn good as well.

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I was going to say Skenes and Chandler are going to be Pirates version of Burnes and Woodruff, but unlike you, I don’t want to sell them short, they’re going to be the new Nolan Ryan & JR Richard!

Those two dudes are going to be a problem for opposing hitters! A BIG F***ING PROBLEM!

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Yeah, Yamamoto better win a Cy Young by the end of 2025, cause Skenes and Bubba are going to start flipping a coin in 2026 to determine who gets it!

They might in 2025 if Bob let's Bubba start the season in Pittsburgh.

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Mel are these system rankings for you or just arms?

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Just arms, Termarr would slot in at 3 behind Skenes and Bubba.

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(1) Skenes

(2) Termarr

(3) Bubba

(4) Solometo

(5) Jones

(6) Shim

(7) Burrows

(8) Lonnie White

(9) Polanco

(10) Yordany

(11) Jebb

(12) Harrington

(13) Ashcraft

(14) Barco

(15) Mueth

(16) Kennedy

(17) Cheng

(18) Brannigan

(19) Po-Yu Chen

(20) Terrero

(21) Dariel Lopez

(22) Bowen

(23) Massey

(24) Blanco Jr

(25) Nicolas

(26) Tres Gonzalez

(27) Nolasco

(28) Abrahan Guitierrez

(29) Curtis

(30) Diamond

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I like these a ton!

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Glad to see JaCoby Jones at 5.

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Paul Skenes is actually JaCoby Jones in disguise with a train barron mustache

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think about it: both are LSU voodoo night trippers

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I like sneaking Curtis in the top 30 yet. The little I've seen from him I've liked. I don't have him too high yet BUT if I was forced into making a breakout/sleeper list this early, he'd be on it

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Higher upside than Skenes, Termarr and Davis?!

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Technically Davis isn't a prospect anymore but even if he was, yeah probably. I think the floor is higher on Termarr and definitely for Skenes. But if we are talking pure upside, where I can see him going the highest, yeah, I do.

Do I think he gets there? Well, that's a different question.

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Oct 27, 2023Liked by Anthony Murphy

Just put a similar response up above, Bubba's ceiling is the sky but his floor is no where near Skenes.

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For me, Skenes has more upside than anybody since Cole. Davis only got 536 PAs in MiLB so a lot of room for growth there, too.

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I can see that. And don't get me wrong, I think Skenes can be good. I just think there were some things I saw that I want to see answered over a course of a full season first. Plus I did have Skenes as the best prospect overall, Chandler just had the higher upside.

For Davis, he will always be limited by his position. Not sure I like how the Pirates are handling him either. Essentially wasted a whole year of development behind the plate.

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Oh I hate the way the Pirates have handled him.

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No Harrington?

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I was waiting Anthony to leave off Skenes again, just so WTM could go for the trifecta.

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Had to mention Skenes here solely because it was actually the pitch that impressed me the most from him.

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Should’ve included Skenes in best power.

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