I'd argue the hit tool and *contact* tool are separate, but related.
Kevin Newman is the definitional Pirate example from recent times here, and that's where I suspect Mitch Jebb ultimately falls.
Both, yes, display top-of-scale contact ability, but as Newman proved you have to couple that with at least a *minimum* amount of punch or the much-maligned big league defender will eat you up. From the available data, it seems Jebb (Jeb!...come one, somebody get it) may have even less juice than Newman.
The ultimately judge of hit tool is still the good ole batting average, I say, with things like contact rate and whiff rates being components of the outcome.
All that said...Jebb may still actually be best in this current system. Woof.
Excellent point about the difference between hit tool and contact tool. I also have great difficulty wrapping my arms around hit or contact being made by college players at the A level. Being drafted after 3 years of college competition, usually at age 21, gives them at least that many years of development and exposure to better pitching than would be the case for almost all HS draftees competing at the same level.
Baseball America selected Termarr Johnson as the "Best Batting Prospect" and "Best Power Prospect" in the A Ball Florida State League this year. Lots of swing and miss - 88 K's in 330 PA, but also 72 Walks - a 0.82 BB/K, .420 OBP, to go with 24 EBH including 13 HR, .448 SLG. And his BB/K at A+ after being promoted increased to 0.91. Special numbers for that young man!
Lotta dumb narrative stuff going on with Termarr in general.
Does anyone realize he posted a *lower* whiff andf K-rate in high-A at a younger age than Liover Peguero, a prospect universally regarded for his contact skills?
This Termarr Johnson Three True Outcomes thing is basically guys who only paid attention to his first month as a pro.
Termarr is my breakout player for next year. I think his strikeouts will lower and his batting average will rise. Kid is still figuring it out and he really focuses on the hitting aspect of his game.
Maybe Termarr won’t be a high contact / high average bat, but a solid fielding second baseman that can get on base 42% of the time and slug some is an all star every season in MLB.
Thanks for keeping the early off season interesting. Good stuff.
I’m old school, or maybe it’s more honest to admit I’m just old, so I look for comps and standards from the glory days when the Bucs were the among the best organizations in baseball year in and year out. For me the ultimate hit tool guy is Al Oliver. It seemed like every time he got the bat on the ball he hit a line drive into he gap or over the fence. So I don’t think hit tool with no power is valuable in and of itself, unless you have true game-changing speed. So if Jebb and Cheng are basically Adam Frazier or Brock Holt, I don’t think that’s all that valuable.
As for Termarr, sure, comparing him to Boggs and Gwynn was crazy. But I hate the idea of him turning into a three true outcomes guy. I hope he re-calibrates in 2024 and ups his average significantly while retaining the patience and the power.
TECHNICALLY. Adam Frazier did get them Jack Suwinski, so there was value somewhat lol. But yea, to be consistently successful in the majors there needs to be some power with the hit. Luis Arraez is kind of defying numbers with what he did in Miami this year. That's not going to happen a lot.
Also, for as good as a hit tool I think Jebb has, AT BEST, I still see him as a bench player. Unless he finds a way to hit for some added power, he won't be a regular.
I will say, for as little power as he has, scouts must absolutely LOVE the hit tool for him to be so highly regarded. BA and Pipeline had him ranked fairly high, so scouts must love him.
Sometimes I wonder if they mess with Jebb's stance a bit, if they could dig up some more power. Then again, why mess with his one really good tool. I'd like to see him get some time in center field this coming year. Him and Tres are nearly identical, but I do feel Jebb's hit tool is better.
The exit velocity numbers were very similar while Tres was in Bradenton. Tres had a better average and 95th percentile, Jebb a better max velocity.
Let the debate begin!
I'd argue the hit tool and *contact* tool are separate, but related.
Kevin Newman is the definitional Pirate example from recent times here, and that's where I suspect Mitch Jebb ultimately falls.
Both, yes, display top-of-scale contact ability, but as Newman proved you have to couple that with at least a *minimum* amount of punch or the much-maligned big league defender will eat you up. From the available data, it seems Jebb (Jeb!...come one, somebody get it) may have even less juice than Newman.
The ultimately judge of hit tool is still the good ole batting average, I say, with things like contact rate and whiff rates being components of the outcome.
All that said...Jebb may still actually be best in this current system. Woof.
That's a good comp. The advantage he has over Newman is that he's a lefty. Fangraphs grades him as an 80 runner?!?!?!? damn!
Excellent point about the difference between hit tool and contact tool. I also have great difficulty wrapping my arms around hit or contact being made by college players at the A level. Being drafted after 3 years of college competition, usually at age 21, gives them at least that many years of development and exposure to better pitching than would be the case for almost all HS draftees competing at the same level.
Baseball America selected Termarr Johnson as the "Best Batting Prospect" and "Best Power Prospect" in the A Ball Florida State League this year. Lots of swing and miss - 88 K's in 330 PA, but also 72 Walks - a 0.82 BB/K, .420 OBP, to go with 24 EBH including 13 HR, .448 SLG. And his BB/K at A+ after being promoted increased to 0.91. Special numbers for that young man!
Lotta dumb narrative stuff going on with Termarr in general.
Does anyone realize he posted a *lower* whiff andf K-rate in high-A at a younger age than Liover Peguero, a prospect universally regarded for his contact skills?
This Termarr Johnson Three True Outcomes thing is basically guys who only paid attention to his first month as a pro.
Termarr is my breakout player for next year. I think his strikeouts will lower and his batting average will rise. Kid is still figuring it out and he really focuses on the hitting aspect of his game.
Maybe Termarr won’t be a high contact / high average bat, but a solid fielding second baseman that can get on base 42% of the time and slug some is an all star every season in MLB.
Thanks for keeping the early off season interesting. Good stuff.
I’m old school, or maybe it’s more honest to admit I’m just old, so I look for comps and standards from the glory days when the Bucs were the among the best organizations in baseball year in and year out. For me the ultimate hit tool guy is Al Oliver. It seemed like every time he got the bat on the ball he hit a line drive into he gap or over the fence. So I don’t think hit tool with no power is valuable in and of itself, unless you have true game-changing speed. So if Jebb and Cheng are basically Adam Frazier or Brock Holt, I don’t think that’s all that valuable.
As for Termarr, sure, comparing him to Boggs and Gwynn was crazy. But I hate the idea of him turning into a three true outcomes guy. I hope he re-calibrates in 2024 and ups his average significantly while retaining the patience and the power.
TECHNICALLY. Adam Frazier did get them Jack Suwinski, so there was value somewhat lol. But yea, to be consistently successful in the majors there needs to be some power with the hit. Luis Arraez is kind of defying numbers with what he did in Miami this year. That's not going to happen a lot.
Also, for as good as a hit tool I think Jebb has, AT BEST, I still see him as a bench player. Unless he finds a way to hit for some added power, he won't be a regular.
Is Mitch Jebb’s ceiling a poor man’s Rod Carew? Be interesting to hear what scout’s say about him.
I will say, for as little power as he has, scouts must absolutely LOVE the hit tool for him to be so highly regarded. BA and Pipeline had him ranked fairly high, so scouts must love him.
If he moves to CF and becomes an above average fielder then maybe, then again Tres is that already and he barely moves the needle.....
Sometimes I wonder if they mess with Jebb's stance a bit, if they could dig up some more power. Then again, why mess with his one really good tool. I'd like to see him get some time in center field this coming year. Him and Tres are nearly identical, but I do feel Jebb's hit tool is better.
The exit velocity numbers were very similar while Tres was in Bradenton. Tres had a better average and 95th percentile, Jebb a better max velocity.