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For the record here is Mackey on the Dominican facility:

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2024/01/27/dominican-republic-academy-mlb-bob-nutting/stories/202401230096

It sounds like a great place. But he avoids addressing the elephant in the room, namely that this state of the art advanced facility is not producing the players that the Pirates system needs.

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It sounds like they have all the tools just need the right coaches to actually execute.

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Jan 27·edited Jan 27

As I push my glasses up the 21-22 International Period (Jan 22 to Dec 22) was the last to keep that naming convention. Starting in 2023, it simply became the 23 period.

Trying to attach an image from CBA to show, but can't figure it out.

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Trying to attach an image from the CBA to show, but can't figure it out.

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Well for me it certainly appears that spreading the monies around and not concentrating on top end talent for the Pirates has been close to a total waste of monies...I guess they have to do it but it just seems to be welfare for a few lucky souls...

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There is some confounding, but the change to focus on is Gayo to Vizcaino and not Huntington to Cherington. The article does focus on Gayo to Vizcaino, but statements like "Huntington's approach failed miserably" are misleading. It was Gayo's approach that failed miserably, Huntington recognized that (along with other problems with Gayo) and made the change, and starting with Bae and Chen we've seen a shift in approach.

If Cherington "succeeds" it will be largely because of what Huntington set up with Vizcaino.

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Jan 26·edited Jan 26Author

Huntington got rid of Gayo because he had to, not because he recognized a need. Gayo was quite explicit about his approach. He told people it was a mistake to pay big bonuses. If Huntington had any qualms about that, it was incredibly stupid to keep the guy on.

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^^^ This. Gayo was corrupt and lining his own pockets by referring dubious prospects to the Pirates. It was an investigation by the MLB and not the Pirates that figured this out. That is how asleep the Pirates have been in Latin America. They have spent many years treating Latin America as an annual multi-million dollar right off that finances the lifestyle of a few scouts and their friends there. While Vizcaino may not be corrupt, I am still waiting for evidence that anything, beyond the open stealing of money, has changed in the Pirates' approach to Latin America from Gayo to Vizcaino. I mean... even a broken clock is right once a day. The Pirates haven't been right once in 17 years.

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Jan 26Author

That last sentence. I used to say about Littlefield that he was so incompetent he defeated the laws of chance. After all these years, so many fans (out of the few still left) don’t seem to grasp fully just how grotesquely badly this team has been run and how precious little they’re willing to do about it.

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Compare what the Pirates have done with Korean scouting and signings compared to Latin America. There is a lot more talent in South America than Korea, yet all of the Pirates' best current international prospects and the only international amateur free agent that they signed on their 40-man is from Korea. There is something wrong in the Latin American program. A competent GM would notice this and correct the problem yesterday. Instead, we have Ben Cherrington.

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Jan 26Author

It’s certainly odd and should obviously call their Lat Am practices into question.

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Regardless, the change Huntington made is what has led to the different approach (unless you think that's coming from Cherington despite it starting with Bae and Chen). He could have replaced Gayo with someone who had a similar approach, but he didn't.

You can say he should have recognized the weakness in the approach sooner but when you're signing 16-year-olds who often agree to deals at 14, and you're taking over from a regime like Littlefield's that was doing practically nothing in LA, it takes time, and Gayo had had some success in the past (I recall reading articles around 2010 about how we were in good hands with Gayo leading things in LA).

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Jan 26Author

The approach hasn’t changed that much. And despite all the excuses, they haven’t found a really good int’l amateur since 2007. That’s a lot of mulligans.

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The clock is ticking but given the ages when they sign, I think '25 is a reasonable timeline for when we should start seeing results.

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I certainly admit to being conflicted with this.

On the one hand, it seems like the international market is generally one of the absolute worst ways to spend your money. What did any of the clubs who spent a bajillion dollars breaking the pre-hard-cap rules actually get out of it? I was hyper-critical of the Pirates for not joining them, but in hindsight feel pretty dumb doing it.

On the other hand...what choice do they have? That's sort of that takeaway I get from Wilbur. If they're not gonna acquire DUDES here, here, or here, then where in the hell else are they gonna come from if not at least in part the international market.

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It's interesting that looking at our prospects signed out of Latin America, three of the top seven came from signing inexpensive FAs (Quintana, Hill, Santana). There is a ton of talent, obviously, in LA but so much uncertainty with 16-year-olds (who often agree to deals at 14) that a two-prong approach is needed. I feel like this started with Huntington acquiring Cruz and continued with players like Endy, Nunez, and, last summer, Severino and Suero.

In the extreme, an organization could transfer some money from signing IFAs to signing FAs that get flipped for former IFAs. Suero or Severino might turn out better than anyone we signed in the '22 class. But for the Pirates, I'd be afraid that if we didn't spend our full amount on IFAs, that money wouldn't get spent at all.

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Nah, they’d spend the money, it would just be on other payroll. They technically don’t have to spend this money in the first place. But I do agree with you...these are 16 yo kids, the volatility of their respective development curves is off the freaking charts. Scout and scout hard, keep scouting these players even after they’re signed by other teams. Let them season in other organizations, then try to acquire them when they are 18 or 19 and potentially still under the radar.

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Correct. The guys we are depending upon like Cruz, Peguero, Rodriguez, Moreta, Hernandez, Contreras, Ortiz, Oviedo, etc all came via trades. Although the Pirates spread the money around on numbers of cheap prospects, they did hit the jackpot on Marte signed in 2007 and starting for the Pirates by 2012. Same with Polanco who they signed in 2009 and who was a starter by 2014.

The odds are definitely against hitting the jackpot with guys like Marte and Polanco every year, but probably should have had a lot more players come through that system than has been the case the past 5 to 10 years. The Pirates have always been a step or two behind about 6 or 7 of the big spenders in the Caribbean. In the Far East however, the Pirates seem like one of the leaders!

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It’d be nice to see them take some Termarr like hacks on the international market.

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Jan 26Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Speaking of, I just updated the tracker with all of the signing bonus information, plus the remaining pool!

https://open.substack.com/pub/bucsondeck/p/2024-international-signing-tracker?r=20zgql&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

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Jan 26Author

Looks like Sosa is a pretty marginal prospect.

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I certainly found interesting it was wrong, and leads one to question the source a tad, especially considering the initial confusing on the timing of the signing

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Jan 26Author

They probably were just too eager to push the nephew angle.

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I’m not entirely convinced that the spread it around approach is the problem —- or at least it’s certainly not the only problem. Random example: Ronald Acuna, Jr. signed for $100,000. As you point out, Marte signed for almost nothing.

I don’t think it’s essential to compete at the top of the international bonus pool, partially because the players are so young when they sign and therefore even more projection is involved. So the keys in my view are scouting (getting the projections right) and player development (helping the player reach his potential regardless of bonus level).

If the Pirates had signed Acuna, for example, would he be where he is today? I have my doubts. And if Shalin Polanco were in the Dodgers system would he be knocking on the door of the majors this year? I think yes.

Still, I take your point. There is *some* correlation between the scouting consensus of the top players and the resulting bonus levels and ultimate professional performance. Look at Salas in the Padres system as a recent example. But there’s enough variance/flameouts that I’m less hung up on bonus amounts and more concerned about overall player development.

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Jan 26Liked by WTM

Comparing small dollar signing successes to big dollar guys is similar in comparing the first round of a draft vs the field. Sure you’ll get some guys who are a success stories in round 2-Eleventy, but that’s also a much larger sample to draw from. How many 100k signings are there at each period? I’d also say that the success rate on high dollar signings is getting better.

They don’t have to compete at the tippy-top, but they can raise their games. Hell, even Tampa has sprung for the highest paid player in the class (although he’s unlikely to ever play again). Cincinnati, Cleveland, Milwaukee all play regularly sign guys to top 10 bonuses.

Development will always be a huge factor in getting the most out of talent. But we’ve got how many regimes splashing in the kiddie pool. It’s time to aim a little higher.

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Jan 26·edited Jan 26Author

Yep. Despite the silly canard that the draft is a crap shoot, the success rate for first round picks is drastically higher than any later rounds. There’s even a significant difference in expected value between the first few picks and the mid-first round. There’s a lot of risk and variance, but scouts are mostly successful in identifying the top talents. The int’l arena involves even more risk, but the basic principles don’t change.

If you categorically reject the top-bonus guys, you are in fact sharply restricting your odds of finding impact players. The results from the Pirates’ practices over the past 30 years — which include categorically rejecting the possibility of paying market rates for veteran players — speak for themselves. The Pirates have closed themselves off from a huge % of the talent before they even start getting into questions about scouting and development. The talent has to come from SOMEWHERE.

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Jan 26Liked by WTM

Looking on FG pg, they have bonus information starting in 2018. The following players signed for $2M or more: Francisco Alvarez, Orelvis Martinez, Noelvi Marte, Kevin Alcantara, Marco Luciano, and Diego Cartaya. Some others have busted already who signed for a high $ or more, but all six of those guys are fairly high rated prospects at the upper levels or even debuted successfully (Alvarez).

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I am interested in the Fangraphs page that shows the bonus information. can you tell me where to look?

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Sure. I can’t link here, but if you go to FG, go to The Board, which is basically the prospect home page. You’ll see several drop downs, the first of which is Prospect List. Click that, and you’ll see Prospect List, Graduates, etc. Select international players.

The new page that pops up has two international player drop downs. Click the second one, as that will give you international player classes going back about 10 years. They don’t have bonuses on the players till 2018 or so.

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Jan 26Author

Every single time you decide you're not even going to consider a guy for reasons unrelated to baseball, you lower your chances of success.

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Maybe the top guys just won't consider the Pirates? Is that possible? I hate to give this idiot crew the benefit of the doubt but maybe they just go after the best guys who'll even talk to them because the team has become such a laughingstock over the last 3 decades?

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Man I've been trying to make this argument for years, but using stupid words like "denominator" which probably caused people to mentally make the jerk-off motion when reading my poasts.

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That’s cause denominator is a book-learnin term! I’ve probably heard you make this argument and it stuck. I’ve always thought they should be much larger player on the international market. The financial footing is more even there than other areas.

My theory with NH is the double-barrel gutshot of Heredia bombing and Sano switching to Minnesota turned him off to the higher dollar guys. No evidence, just a theory. But he never went near those guys again.

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I’m coming from a somewhat ignorant place, but most of, if not all of these players established who they are gonna sign with a year if not more than the actual signing period. If that’s the case then the system, like everything else with baseball is rigged. Having an international draft might be a solution, but I’m tired of tanking teams so it shouldn’t be based on record, perhaps a 30 team lottery!

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Doesn’t that just mean the Bucs should be down and dirty like the rest of these teams?

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Jan 26·edited Jan 26

If you took out the better scouting/projections part (if even the most sought-after and therefor highest paid international prospects are too risky to be worth it then how in the heck do we expect scouts to accurately find diamonds in the rough?) but absolutely do think you nailed it with the rest.

It's all about the econo...no no, sorry...development, stupid!

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I’m thinking of Tony Blanco, Jr., for example. His bonus was $900K, but my understanding is that he was one of the top —- if not the top —- power prospects in his class. We’re two years in and he’s done next to nothing and is on the verge of being old for his level. If he has swing and miss issues, then teach him how to make more contact.

The lack of development year after year is so discouraging.

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They should probably bring Blanco Jr. to Florida this year. He's still 18 for around 4 months. With his size, he might be getting pitched around a good bit. I've seen a couple videos that he just demolished the ball (they weren't middle middle either).

Would be great if they could get someone like Frank Thomas to give him some pointers, dude looks like a tight end out there.

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Jan 26·edited Jan 26

BC is going to surprise us all, he's going to trade for Roki. Saw yesterday were he dropped out of the union over there.

Don't no how he's going to do it but until Roki goes somewhere else, I'm holding out unrealistic hope.

Roki just signed with Chiba Lotte for 2024. I can quit hoping until December.

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Jan 26Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

As the miserable years as a fan go by, I have made a few adjustments, for example, no one is a prospect until AA, would have been A+ but the home park makes it impossible, not caring about the international draft has been another.

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That's how I feel, at least with regards to hitters. I think you can gain a decent perspective of a pitcher if they're missing bats and have respectable numbers in the SAL. With hitters, I still think to players like Lolo and Tree who became "power hitters" in Greensboro, or Cheng this past season.

I know Josh Norris even made mention of it on the BA pod talking about the Pirates top 10, that the SAL can often hurt a hitter's swing cause they get homer happy.

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Awesome article, not so awesome results for our buccos. Nice to see they’re starting to take some bigger swings at least. We will see how it works out.

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Agreed, very compelling article!

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Jose Guillen, Carlos Garcia, Carlos Rivera, Ricardo Rincon, Francisco Cordova and Estaban Loaiza were signed by Bonifay? latter three dont count because Mexican rules were different at the time?

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deal with the devil?

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Begs the question of why they haven’t made more changes in this area.

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Jan 26Author

No accountability.

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