McCutchen and Horwitz by themselves aren’t likely to dramatically alter an offense that finished third from the bottom in wRC+ with a figure of 86 that bested only the Rockies and White Sox
I can appreciate the strategery, but if Cleveland hadn’t completely failed to get anything out of McKensie, Allen, and Carrasco then wouldn’t be in a position of exchanging offense in order to rebuild their rotation. Best of luck doing better with Ortiz, I guess.
Pertinent to our Buccos, their staff last year was carried by Emanuel Clase and a bunch of dudes you’ve never heard of in the pen.
The Pirates will add more wins this way than any nine figure free agent bat would get them.
Bottom 5 pen last year changing to top 10 puts last year's team into the 80+ win territory. Full year of Paul, Cruz being one more year removed from injury, Horwitz raising both the floor and ceiling of the offense compared to last year (my opinion)... can see a wild card team appearing if things break right.
Of course, it seems that we are betting on lots to break right and Im not sure they've earned that assumption.
What is the point then? If the Pirates can't afford to pay one player at a value market rate then the team will never win another World Series without a miracle outcome.
A Miracle is the only way this organization will win a championship. It's just too hard to compete versus teams that have 3 or 4 times the payroll. Plus it feels like we have a gm afraid to be aggressive. The Naylor and Lazardo trades did not cost a whole lot in prospects. Pirates could have done those.
Luxardo is a prime example as he’s a very reasonable acquisition in terms of cost. I believe he has two years left of arbitration. They have a recent track record of being successful on the pitching development side, also with change of scenery lefties. Luxardo is a 27-year old, high upside guy coming off an injury. There is a very strong probability that his trade value will be greater after a healthy, bounce back season. Nothing is a given, but these are strong probabilities. These are the bets this FO should be making. A Luxardo acquisition has a very real probability of costing you nothing, as his trade value could reasonably be equal to or greater than his acquisition cost next off-season. Rinse and repeat.
At what point do you stop hitting your head against the proverbial wall? Been a fan since the mid-80s. This off season, where the starting pitching should lead to an investment to go for it, but where none seems to be forthcoming, makes me think I am wasting my time dreaming of better days. If not now then when? And if never, then why bother following this team?
I'm with you. I've been a fan since the late 70s. I barely watch games anymore. Last year I'd watch Skenes and Jones and that's about it. This off season should have been the time for ownership to pony up and so far it's the same rubbish.
I’m 71. So I had the luck/privilege to follow the Pirates when they were relevant one way or another every year from 1960 to 1980. Then we had the brilliant Syd Thrift rebuild with the agonizing playoff losses in 90-92. So except for the mid-80s downturn due to the drug scandals and other mess-ups, that was three decades of being part of the national baseball conversation.
Since then it’s been pretty sad except for the McCutchen peak years. I really wonder why I even bother. I just want one more meaningful run in my lifetime and with Paul Skenes they have a chance. But Nutting is so unfit as an owner, I don’t think it’s possible.
Where would Horwitz play? He did split time between 1B and 2B with Cleveland and off the top of my head .982 was what he fielded as a second baseman. Sounds good, but Pete Alonso and the Mets are not separating.
If you've watched the Pirates at all in the last few years, assuming that players can easily just hop between infield and outfield is a recipe for disaster
I think the best bounce-back opportunity for the Bugs is Triolo. I don’t want to send $$ and hopes on any free agent who wouldn’t automatically be our best hitter (low bar). Yes he stunk last year but it was the first sustained slump in his career and he came into 2024 w as good a hitting resume as Horvitz and he’s still younger. Move Hayes to Short, hope Gonzo blossoms as a sophomore and use IKF to backfill where needed.
Triolo seemed to bring a new batting stance and pre-pitch movements to ST. He struggled badly through the first 3 months before changing back. If he was not the GG replacement to Hayes (out injured), he would have been long gone back to AAA. With him as a Utility IF, he can go to any of the 4 positions and I bet he would out D what we have at SS and 2B, and probably 1B also if he actually played the position enough. Imagine his worth if he starts to hit for at least a .700+ OPS for all 6 months of the season.
Cutch really doesn’t move the needle much. Cutch is a Pirate for life in my book but time to move on from him. A big thank you Andrew for everything. Pittsburgh loves you.
Other than signing Cutch. Do you expect a signing or a trade before Pirate Fest? Give the fans something to get excited about. Seems like all of the teams are making moves and acquiring players, even the A's
I cannot think that Bednar will be as bad as he was last year - he looked overweight and not quite prepared for the 2024 season. When the bad breaks began, it appeared like he had very little in the tank. Hold Man also picked the same year to have a down year. I like that Carmen Mlodzinski had a solid year, looking for Moreta and Stratton to bounce back, and Dennis Santana was an excellent find. That leaves openings for 2 more - possibly Kyle Nicolas and one more.
Bednar should have been traded two off-seasons ago. This is the same front office that routinely talks about reliever volatility. They should practice what they preach, sell high. Same could be said for Suwinski after the 2023 season. No player on the Pirates roster has seen their trade value drop like Jack. They need to do a better job of scouting their own players and identifying their strengths/weaknesses before the league catches on. Between these two players, the Pirates saw their collective trade value decline from a surplus value of almost $70m to $8m. For relevance, the delta is about two Bubba Chandlers or Crochet AND Luxardo. We all talk about development, and more specifically hitter development as of late, but imo, asset management has been this organization’s number one deficiency by a wide margin.
It may have been hard to trade him after 22 (wasn’t Bednar a little banged up then?), but in hindsight, he should probably have been moved after last season. Bad bodied closers don’t age well; NH pulled the chute at the perfect time for Hanrahan, and BC missed his chance.
I’m not sure selling Jack would have been advisable or even worth much though.
The '23 deadline would have got close to max return for Bednar, Keller as well. It would have been a PR nightmare but the returns might have been very rewarding or disastrous.
I can stand to miss that firepower if we find a way to move that $10 mil Chapman Salary of 2024 to a middle of the order hitter. As bad as Bednar was in 2024 his Save %age was 76.7%; Chapman 73.7%. Even better, why not try to eliminate as many Save opp's as we can by scoring more runs!
The Pirates were never able to even try to land a power hitter who wanted to play for a WINNER. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, and others have flipped that scenario in just one year!
Murphy is exactly right, though. Pitching with garbage defense is not all that helpful, and this team's defense under Cherington has been absolute rubbish. I wish that he showed as much concern for defense as he does for acquiring any warm body who will take pitches. The complete disregard for team defense is probably my biggest complaint (among many) about how this front office has gone about its business.
If we were losing a lot of 7-6 ballgames allowing unearned runs, but we lose far far more 7-2 games.
That's why offense is my hot button this offseason. Offense costs money, moreso than defensive metrics and it wins more games. The best play in baseball? The 3-run dinger.
With a pitching staff featuring Skenes, Jones, Chandler, and Keller, is team defense the point of emphasis you would recommend BC focus on this winter? I prefer bullpen and a bopper
My man, some of these takes of yours are absolutely ridiculous.
Carlos Santana
Austin Hedges
Michael A Taylor
Yasmani Grandal
IKF
KeBryan Hayes
Just some examples of plus defenders signed by Cherington. There’s plenty of things they do wrong like not having enough offensive to supplement the pitching. But to go to these lengths to make shit up is odd.
I mean they were 24th last year by Fangraphs FPA. You leave out Tellez, Olivares and BDLC who were pretty terrible defensively. Mere disagreement doesn’t constitute making things up.
Generally 1b & corner OFers don’t grade out well defensively. Cruz at SS didn’t help. Just looking at FAs he’s targeted, it appears he’s looking for plus defenders.
Nothern Lights lost me with the complete disregard for team defense. Which is clearly not true and made up when you’re signing guys like Taylor, Hedges, Grandal, Hayes, etc.
Do you have a reading comprehension problem or is your mind pudding? Rhetorical question. I know that you are both stupid and an asshole. The Pirates are far below average on team defense since Cherington took ove. I didn't make this up. I read the article, and I have watched the comedy reel of defense from this team every year.
Its impressive to me that our defense has still been so terrible as a whole despite bringing in these guys that are some of the best at their respective positions. Other then hayes and triolo, I dont know that any of our guys from inside of the org have done much at all with the glove
I don’t think it’s a disregard for defense so much as a disregard for having major league players. The Pirates’ problem isn’t offense vs defense, it’s having a roster loaded with plain old bad players.
I think Borealus makes a good point though: I’m sure you and I would agree that IKF is a decent major league player. He rates as an excellent 3B by OAA and a decent 2B. Yet we are going to play him at SS, where he’s -8 OAA for his career. If defense really mattered, they could’ve found a cheaper, and better defensive option, for less money than IKF is making.
McCutchen and Horwitz by themselves aren’t likely to dramatically alter an offense that finished third from the bottom in wRC+ with a figure of 86 that bested only the Rockies and White Sox
I can appreciate the strategery, but if Cleveland hadn’t completely failed to get anything out of McKensie, Allen, and Carrasco then wouldn’t be in a position of exchanging offense in order to rebuild their rotation. Best of luck doing better with Ortiz, I guess.
Pertinent to our Buccos, their staff last year was carried by Emanuel Clase and a bunch of dudes you’ve never heard of in the pen.
The Pirates will add more wins this way than any nine figure free agent bat would get them.
Bottom 5 pen last year changing to top 10 puts last year's team into the 80+ win territory. Full year of Paul, Cruz being one more year removed from injury, Horwitz raising both the floor and ceiling of the offense compared to last year (my opinion)... can see a wild card team appearing if things break right.
Of course, it seems that we are betting on lots to break right and Im not sure they've earned that assumption.
That’s assuming everything breaks right. How often does that happen?
Thats where the part where i said thats a big assumption comes in
We probably ought to get comfortable with needing just about everything to break right, frankly. As do all teams on the Pirates end of the spectrum.
Pete Alonso's market is getting tight. Would he take a 4 year $80 million offer? If so, would be a great pick up.
He'll get paid by a winning organization. No need to dream here in Bucco land.
What is the point then? If the Pirates can't afford to pay one player at a value market rate then the team will never win another World Series without a miracle outcome.
They can afford to pay one player market value. They just choose not to.
That's the problem.
A Miracle is the only way this organization will win a championship. It's just too hard to compete versus teams that have 3 or 4 times the payroll. Plus it feels like we have a gm afraid to be aggressive. The Naylor and Lazardo trades did not cost a whole lot in prospects. Pirates could have done those.
Luxardo is a prime example as he’s a very reasonable acquisition in terms of cost. I believe he has two years left of arbitration. They have a recent track record of being successful on the pitching development side, also with change of scenery lefties. Luxardo is a 27-year old, high upside guy coming off an injury. There is a very strong probability that his trade value will be greater after a healthy, bounce back season. Nothing is a given, but these are strong probabilities. These are the bets this FO should be making. A Luxardo acquisition has a very real probability of costing you nothing, as his trade value could reasonably be equal to or greater than his acquisition cost next off-season. Rinse and repeat.
At what point do you stop hitting your head against the proverbial wall? Been a fan since the mid-80s. This off season, where the starting pitching should lead to an investment to go for it, but where none seems to be forthcoming, makes me think I am wasting my time dreaming of better days. If not now then when? And if never, then why bother following this team?
I'm with you. I've been a fan since the late 70s. I barely watch games anymore. Last year I'd watch Skenes and Jones and that's about it. This off season should have been the time for ownership to pony up and so far it's the same rubbish.
I’m 71. So I had the luck/privilege to follow the Pirates when they were relevant one way or another every year from 1960 to 1980. Then we had the brilliant Syd Thrift rebuild with the agonizing playoff losses in 90-92. So except for the mid-80s downturn due to the drug scandals and other mess-ups, that was three decades of being part of the national baseball conversation.
Since then it’s been pretty sad except for the McCutchen peak years. I really wonder why I even bother. I just want one more meaningful run in my lifetime and with Paul Skenes they have a chance. But Nutting is so unfit as an owner, I don’t think it’s possible.
Where would Horwitz play? He did split time between 1B and 2B with Cleveland and off the top of my head .982 was what he fielded as a second baseman. Sounds good, but Pete Alonso and the Mets are not separating.
If Horowitz can play 2B he should be able to handle RF. Also have DH open right now. Maybe pass on another year of Andrew M?
If you've watched the Pirates at all in the last few years, assuming that players can easily just hop between infield and outfield is a recipe for disaster
Can’t imagine he would without an opt out. Or maybe multiple opt outs?
I would be fine with opt outs. Even one year of Alonso's skill set would be a big boost.
I think the best bounce-back opportunity for the Bugs is Triolo. I don’t want to send $$ and hopes on any free agent who wouldn’t automatically be our best hitter (low bar). Yes he stunk last year but it was the first sustained slump in his career and he came into 2024 w as good a hitting resume as Horvitz and he’s still younger. Move Hayes to Short, hope Gonzo blossoms as a sophomore and use IKF to backfill where needed.
Triolo seemed to bring a new batting stance and pre-pitch movements to ST. He struggled badly through the first 3 months before changing back. If he was not the GG replacement to Hayes (out injured), he would have been long gone back to AAA. With him as a Utility IF, he can go to any of the 4 positions and I bet he would out D what we have at SS and 2B, and probably 1B also if he actually played the position enough. Imagine his worth if he starts to hit for at least a .700+ OPS for all 6 months of the season.
Cutch really doesn’t move the needle much. Cutch is a Pirate for life in my book but time to move on from him. A big thank you Andrew for everything. Pittsburgh loves you.
Our fourth best hitter from last year doesn't move the needle? Man we are not in position to be passing on cheap, above average bats
4th best on the Pirates means nothing. We were next to last or last in a lot of categories offensively. Offense was terrible …0.8 war
Cutch was an above average hitter, 1 of 4 to do so. Not bringing him back is a step backwards not forwards
Other than signing Cutch. Do you expect a signing or a trade before Pirate Fest? Give the fans something to get excited about. Seems like all of the teams are making moves and acquiring players, even the A's
There’s a formula for small market teams to compete. It’s called Pitching.
I think I would be ok with BC dumpster diving for a veteran OF on a 1-year bounce back deal, if he chooses to invest in a bad ass bullpen guy.
Then just hope Pirates can win a bunch of 3-2 games this year.
I cannot think that Bednar will be as bad as he was last year - he looked overweight and not quite prepared for the 2024 season. When the bad breaks began, it appeared like he had very little in the tank. Hold Man also picked the same year to have a down year. I like that Carmen Mlodzinski had a solid year, looking for Moreta and Stratton to bounce back, and Dennis Santana was an excellent find. That leaves openings for 2 more - possibly Kyle Nicolas and one more.
Bednar should have been traded two off-seasons ago. This is the same front office that routinely talks about reliever volatility. They should practice what they preach, sell high. Same could be said for Suwinski after the 2023 season. No player on the Pirates roster has seen their trade value drop like Jack. They need to do a better job of scouting their own players and identifying their strengths/weaknesses before the league catches on. Between these two players, the Pirates saw their collective trade value decline from a surplus value of almost $70m to $8m. For relevance, the delta is about two Bubba Chandlers or Crochet AND Luxardo. We all talk about development, and more specifically hitter development as of late, but imo, asset management has been this organization’s number one deficiency by a wide margin.
It may have been hard to trade him after 22 (wasn’t Bednar a little banged up then?), but in hindsight, he should probably have been moved after last season. Bad bodied closers don’t age well; NH pulled the chute at the perfect time for Hanrahan, and BC missed his chance.
I’m not sure selling Jack would have been advisable or even worth much though.
The '23 deadline would have got close to max return for Bednar, Keller as well. It would have been a PR nightmare but the returns might have been very rewarding or disastrous.
The odds of all that coming together like you suggest are long at best.
Fact is without Chapman this bullpen is lacking firepower no matter how well Bednar, Holderman, Moreta, and Stratton bounce back.
I can stand to miss that firepower if we find a way to move that $10 mil Chapman Salary of 2024 to a middle of the order hitter. As bad as Bednar was in 2024 his Save %age was 76.7%; Chapman 73.7%. Even better, why not try to eliminate as many Save opp's as we can by scoring more runs!
The Pirates were never able to even try to land a power hitter who wanted to play for a WINNER. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, and others have flipped that scenario in just one year!
Murphy is exactly right, though. Pitching with garbage defense is not all that helpful, and this team's defense under Cherington has been absolute rubbish. I wish that he showed as much concern for defense as he does for acquiring any warm body who will take pitches. The complete disregard for team defense is probably my biggest complaint (among many) about how this front office has gone about its business.
If we were losing a lot of 7-6 ballgames allowing unearned runs, but we lose far far more 7-2 games.
That's why offense is my hot button this offseason. Offense costs money, moreso than defensive metrics and it wins more games. The best play in baseball? The 3-run dinger.
With a pitching staff featuring Skenes, Jones, Chandler, and Keller, is team defense the point of emphasis you would recommend BC focus on this winter? I prefer bullpen and a bopper
My man, some of these takes of yours are absolutely ridiculous.
Carlos Santana
Austin Hedges
Michael A Taylor
Yasmani Grandal
IKF
KeBryan Hayes
Just some examples of plus defenders signed by Cherington. There’s plenty of things they do wrong like not having enough offensive to supplement the pitching. But to go to these lengths to make shit up is odd.
IKF isn’t a plus defender and Cherington didn’t sign Hayes.
How is IKF not a plus defender?
Cherington signed Hayes to an extension
UZR has him as average, OAA as below average. In the two seasons where he played SS every day, Statcast gave him very low ratings for range.
Cherington didn't bring Hayes to the team, but it's a minor point.
Statcast, at least last season like his range. He was in the 84th percentile
I mean they were 24th last year by Fangraphs FPA. You leave out Tellez, Olivares and BDLC who were pretty terrible defensively. Mere disagreement doesn’t constitute making things up.
Generally 1b & corner OFers don’t grade out well defensively. Cruz at SS didn’t help. Just looking at FAs he’s targeted, it appears he’s looking for plus defenders.
Nothern Lights lost me with the complete disregard for team defense. Which is clearly not true and made up when you’re signing guys like Taylor, Hedges, Grandal, Hayes, etc.
Do you have a reading comprehension problem or is your mind pudding? Rhetorical question. I know that you are both stupid and an asshole. The Pirates are far below average on team defense since Cherington took ove. I didn't make this up. I read the article, and I have watched the comedy reel of defense from this team every year.
Aurorus...
Man. No need to be calling another person on this thread names. You can make your point without doing that.
He has done the same to me countless times for years, and I am not going to take it any more.
Merry Christmas, brother
🎅☮️❤️
I'm reading y'all's discourse, and I'm seeing Dale and Brennan from Stepbrothers. 🤣
Now we just need them to become best friends.
We need a Bucs on Deck Catalina Wine Mixer.
Its impressive to me that our defense has still been so terrible as a whole despite bringing in these guys that are some of the best at their respective positions. Other then hayes and triolo, I dont know that any of our guys from inside of the org have done much at all with the glove
Guys like Reynolds, whoever is in RF, Suwinski in CF and Tellez really drags it down. Bart didn’t help either
I don’t think it’s a disregard for defense so much as a disregard for having major league players. The Pirates’ problem isn’t offense vs defense, it’s having a roster loaded with plain old bad players.
Good players don’t sign 1-year deals in Pirates price range.
Chapman is lone exception I can think of.
Amen brother to all of that.
I think Borealus makes a good point though: I’m sure you and I would agree that IKF is a decent major league player. He rates as an excellent 3B by OAA and a decent 2B. Yet we are going to play him at SS, where he’s -8 OAA for his career. If defense really mattered, they could’ve found a cheaper, and better defensive option, for less money than IKF is making.
There’s also more than one metric. IKF rates +28 at SS using DRS.
Well, they are the New York Yankees. They also had a hot prospect ready to take over at SS.
Time to call up G. Ngope…..wait what year is this?