The Pirates stated intention was to compete for a playoff spot this year, and to have sustained success. They were going to do this by rebuilding the farm system and sprinkle in SOLID free agents. While they have built up the pitchers on the farm, we have little in the way of young hitters. Henry Davis has been a failed 1/1 pick. That can’t happen. Nutting and BC have failed to sign FA who can add solid contributions and it now looks like we will need to give up some pitching prospects needed for the long term sustained success. This all could have been limited if they had spent a reasonable amount of money on solid free agents at a mid MLB payroll level. I’m of the opinion they should NOT trade any of their young assets, and instead recognize they are a .500 team this year, and actually sign solid hitting FAs next season to compliment the pitchers.
AM - liked the article for the factual summary of the first half of the season. We have solidified the Rotation and it shows signs of just getting better into 2025 and beyond. The BP took some beatings with injuries to key personnel at the start of the year, but Bednar came back, Mlodzinski returned, Holderman has successfully returned, Borucki is close, and Luis Ortiz has stepped up. Not to forget that Johan Oviedo, SP and Dauri Moreta, RP will both return for 2025
Where we need immediate help is in the OF with at least a full time Center Fielder - a switchhitter could be a plus. Cannot think of the last time the Pirates had a legit CF - could it be Cutch when he first came up? We can offer some of the pitching we have loaded up with over the past 4 years, we also have an excess of MLB quality MI's, a #37 pick in the 2024 Draft that is Tradeable, and others as needed. For instance, would an AL contender be interested in Chapman? The lineup needs to be solidified for the 2nd half, and have these people in place to begin ST in 2025.
Here is (part of) Nola's IF article from before spring. I thought it would be interesting reading around mid-season, so I saved it to my desktop. Enjoy!
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So, why do I bring up this painful — or the last happy — memory? We’re almost ten years removed from the 2015 season, going into the “new” regime’s fifth season, and the Pirates’ success is entirely predicated on “IF.”
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This isn’t meant to be “Here is a list of players I think are terrible and why!” It’s a matter of we just don’t know. I have high aspirations for the young players and rebound projects, but there’s no way to know.
*
“IF” Ke’Bryan Hayes second half surge is to be trusted. We know the glove is there, but if he adds even average to above average consistent offense? That’s a huge boost.
*
“IF” Jack Suwinski could limit the valleys and droughts during the season, the Pirates would have a very very special player on their hands. “IF” 2023 is the player he is, that’s a very good player, but there’s still the possibility his whiff rates lead to lower production. Pair that with we’ll have to see if he can improve upon his defense in center field, or if he’s just going to remain the “best of what they have.”
*
“IF” Oneil Cruz will show the improvement we had hoped to see in 2023, let alone if there’s any rust. Will he explode into one of the game’s biggest offensive threats? Will his defense see improved control of his throws? At this point, from what we know, he’s similar to Suwinski in center field, just as the “best of what they have” at shortstop.
*
“IF” Bryan Reynolds can better emulate his 2021 season. Maybe not the full 6.0 fWAR, although that would be a very welcome addition, but closer to his 2022 season of 124 wRC+ and push past his 2.8 fWAR that year. Alex Stumpf recently wrote about some of Reynolds numbers and how he had one of his worst season’s against the fastball in 2023.
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The reality is that we could keep going. “IF” Davis asserts himself as an everyday catcher. “IF” someone steps up for 2B. “IF” Olivares can boost himself into an above-average, all-around starting right fielder.
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At this point in the off-season, the only part of the team I feel comfortable about is the bullpen. I think it has the potential to be solid. But you also need to be able to get to that bullpen with a lead in hand, or at the least, the game within reach with an offense you have faith can come back.
*
I don’t even want to get started on the rotation. It’s Mitch Keller and “IF.” We could drum up all the possible scenarios we’d like and paint those ideas with rainbows, but there’s absolutely no way of having any idea as to what may or may not happen. Just as with Johan Oviedo, no one (outside of the organization) could’ve predicted he’d be lost before anything got going.
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Just as no one could’ve predicted the Pirates would lose one starter (JT Brubaker) and one of their presumed top depth starters (Mike Burrows) at the onset of 2023 season. The one caveat there is that you would hope the organization would have a backup plan, which has always been my gripe going back to that aforementioned 2016 season.
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Will Keller pitch at a high-end pace the entire season and possibly skip over his 2023 mid-season road bump? Which version of Martin Perez or Marco Gonzales are they going to get? Will they stay healthy? Presuming no more additions (although we keep hearing they’re “looking”), which young prospects will click? Quinn Priester, Roansy Contreras, or Luis Ortiz? Could it be Jared Jones? Paul Skenes forcing himself up sooner than later?
*
The best-run organizations have backup plans, and so far, it’s hard to say the Pirates plan A itself isn’t more than just wishful thinking.
If Cherington wasn't the most dithering and conservative GM in baseball, we could make one big trade (Bleday) and a few little ones (Pham, Pillar, Vlad Jr) and be competitive for the wild card. Of course, it doesn't help to have the dumbest manager in MLB though.
And it isn’t’ bad luck, it’s malpractice and money:
* Carlos Santana is on a 1 year, 5.25 million contract currently with a 1.4 WAR
*Gary Sanchez has more HR’s than Tellez, Grandal & Taylor combined (granted, not saying much)
* Teoscar Hernandez’ one-year salary is equivalent of Chapman, Tellez and the equivalent of MLB couch change $10million
We weren’t asking to sign Ohtani or Bellinger — just modest upgrades. Enough with this Nutting good cop/bad cop crap. If the Pirates were a university we would lose accreditation based on lack of investment . Now we have to give up minor league pitching prospects for half (or less) a season of the types of guys we should have just PAID ON THE FREE AGENT MARKET IN THE FIRST INSTANCE
The disaster happened in the off season. The disaster includes Cherrington's refusal to acquire a firstbaseman, a centerfielder and a rightfielder. The only current defense of Cherrington's strategy has is the Pirates' pitching prospects as a whole may be overvalued because of Skenes and Jones. Barco, Ashcraft, Harrington have greater value now than they had last winter. A few of them may fetch an useful return. The rest will need to come from free agent signings. It's all on Nutting. He either wants to win or he doesn't. That means signing quality FAs, and they cost money. For 2025 and beyond, the Pirates will have the same needs: A CF, RF and 1stman. Eventually, the team will also need a DH too.
I had higher hopes for the offense, but it feels like everyone has gone backwards. I thought it wasn't unreasonable to be in the middle of the pack in offense. Obviously the organizational hitting strategy is a failure and changes need to be made. BC needs to get aggressive and start upgrading some positions.
I would love to see some major bat upgrading as well.
I will say, though, that I am of the opinion that they need to go now if they are going to go. Another month of this lineup and they will likely be far enough back in the race that there is no point in paying a deadline premium to add; at that point might as well wait til winter. Go big (and now) or go home. Don’t throw away valuable assets a month from now for too little, too late.
The defensive falloff from Reynolds is concerning. I wonder if moving him to right would help, but that presumes we have someone who can play a quality left field. The bat has been fire, which I’ve been glad to see, but the defense does little to alleviate my concerns about the contract.
It’s really irrelevant whose money it is. What matters to me is that there is a fixed amount of it. So if I want to see Oneil Cruz or Paul Skenes signed to a contract extension, because I’m a big fan of theirs, this inhibits that ability. Not to mention if the contract goes south it further inhibits their ability to be competitive. So if you’re a fan of the team, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t care?
The Pirates stated intention was to compete for a playoff spot this year, and to have sustained success. They were going to do this by rebuilding the farm system and sprinkle in SOLID free agents. While they have built up the pitchers on the farm, we have little in the way of young hitters. Henry Davis has been a failed 1/1 pick. That can’t happen. Nutting and BC have failed to sign FA who can add solid contributions and it now looks like we will need to give up some pitching prospects needed for the long term sustained success. This all could have been limited if they had spent a reasonable amount of money on solid free agents at a mid MLB payroll level. I’m of the opinion they should NOT trade any of their young assets, and instead recognize they are a .500 team this year, and actually sign solid hitting FAs next season to compliment the pitchers.
Really puts an exclamation point on what an astoundingly productive 2012-2013 offseason Huntington pulled off.
Not sure that 2013 club would’ve been much better than this one otherwise.
AM - liked the article for the factual summary of the first half of the season. We have solidified the Rotation and it shows signs of just getting better into 2025 and beyond. The BP took some beatings with injuries to key personnel at the start of the year, but Bednar came back, Mlodzinski returned, Holderman has successfully returned, Borucki is close, and Luis Ortiz has stepped up. Not to forget that Johan Oviedo, SP and Dauri Moreta, RP will both return for 2025
Where we need immediate help is in the OF with at least a full time Center Fielder - a switchhitter could be a plus. Cannot think of the last time the Pirates had a legit CF - could it be Cutch when he first came up? We can offer some of the pitching we have loaded up with over the past 4 years, we also have an excess of MLB quality MI's, a #37 pick in the 2024 Draft that is Tradeable, and others as needed. For instance, would an AL contender be interested in Chapman? The lineup needs to be solidified for the 2nd half, and have these people in place to begin ST in 2025.
Here is (part of) Nola's IF article from before spring. I thought it would be interesting reading around mid-season, so I saved it to my desktop. Enjoy!
*
So, why do I bring up this painful — or the last happy — memory? We’re almost ten years removed from the 2015 season, going into the “new” regime’s fifth season, and the Pirates’ success is entirely predicated on “IF.”
*
This isn’t meant to be “Here is a list of players I think are terrible and why!” It’s a matter of we just don’t know. I have high aspirations for the young players and rebound projects, but there’s no way to know.
*
“IF” Ke’Bryan Hayes second half surge is to be trusted. We know the glove is there, but if he adds even average to above average consistent offense? That’s a huge boost.
*
“IF” Jack Suwinski could limit the valleys and droughts during the season, the Pirates would have a very very special player on their hands. “IF” 2023 is the player he is, that’s a very good player, but there’s still the possibility his whiff rates lead to lower production. Pair that with we’ll have to see if he can improve upon his defense in center field, or if he’s just going to remain the “best of what they have.”
*
“IF” Oneil Cruz will show the improvement we had hoped to see in 2023, let alone if there’s any rust. Will he explode into one of the game’s biggest offensive threats? Will his defense see improved control of his throws? At this point, from what we know, he’s similar to Suwinski in center field, just as the “best of what they have” at shortstop.
*
“IF” Bryan Reynolds can better emulate his 2021 season. Maybe not the full 6.0 fWAR, although that would be a very welcome addition, but closer to his 2022 season of 124 wRC+ and push past his 2.8 fWAR that year. Alex Stumpf recently wrote about some of Reynolds numbers and how he had one of his worst season’s against the fastball in 2023.
*
The reality is that we could keep going. “IF” Davis asserts himself as an everyday catcher. “IF” someone steps up for 2B. “IF” Olivares can boost himself into an above-average, all-around starting right fielder.
*
At this point in the off-season, the only part of the team I feel comfortable about is the bullpen. I think it has the potential to be solid. But you also need to be able to get to that bullpen with a lead in hand, or at the least, the game within reach with an offense you have faith can come back.
*
I don’t even want to get started on the rotation. It’s Mitch Keller and “IF.” We could drum up all the possible scenarios we’d like and paint those ideas with rainbows, but there’s absolutely no way of having any idea as to what may or may not happen. Just as with Johan Oviedo, no one (outside of the organization) could’ve predicted he’d be lost before anything got going.
*
Just as no one could’ve predicted the Pirates would lose one starter (JT Brubaker) and one of their presumed top depth starters (Mike Burrows) at the onset of 2023 season. The one caveat there is that you would hope the organization would have a backup plan, which has always been my gripe going back to that aforementioned 2016 season.
*
Will Keller pitch at a high-end pace the entire season and possibly skip over his 2023 mid-season road bump? Which version of Martin Perez or Marco Gonzales are they going to get? Will they stay healthy? Presuming no more additions (although we keep hearing they’re “looking”), which young prospects will click? Quinn Priester, Roansy Contreras, or Luis Ortiz? Could it be Jared Jones? Paul Skenes forcing himself up sooner than later?
*
The best-run organizations have backup plans, and so far, it’s hard to say the Pirates plan A itself isn’t more than just wishful thinking.
This was well put. Their “plan” was relying on 80th percentile outcomes from most of their guys.
And they're still miraculously close.
If Cherington wasn't the most dithering and conservative GM in baseball, we could make one big trade (Bleday) and a few little ones (Pham, Pillar, Vlad Jr) and be competitive for the wild card. Of course, it doesn't help to have the dumbest manager in MLB though.
And it isn’t’ bad luck, it’s malpractice and money:
* Carlos Santana is on a 1 year, 5.25 million contract currently with a 1.4 WAR
*Gary Sanchez has more HR’s than Tellez, Grandal & Taylor combined (granted, not saying much)
* Teoscar Hernandez’ one-year salary is equivalent of Chapman, Tellez and the equivalent of MLB couch change $10million
We weren’t asking to sign Ohtani or Bellinger — just modest upgrades. Enough with this Nutting good cop/bad cop crap. If the Pirates were a university we would lose accreditation based on lack of investment . Now we have to give up minor league pitching prospects for half (or less) a season of the types of guys we should have just PAID ON THE FREE AGENT MARKET IN THE FIRST INSTANCE
Very few other franchises have to live this way
“Just sign the absolute best of the dozens of cheap vets” is also the strategy that 29 other GMs would’ve loved to pull off, as well.
The disaster happened in the off season. The disaster includes Cherrington's refusal to acquire a firstbaseman, a centerfielder and a rightfielder. The only current defense of Cherrington's strategy has is the Pirates' pitching prospects as a whole may be overvalued because of Skenes and Jones. Barco, Ashcraft, Harrington have greater value now than they had last winter. A few of them may fetch an useful return. The rest will need to come from free agent signings. It's all on Nutting. He either wants to win or he doesn't. That means signing quality FAs, and they cost money. For 2025 and beyond, the Pirates will have the same needs: A CF, RF and 1stman. Eventually, the team will also need a DH too.
Well said.
They could’ve signed 2 of those 3 with a slightly different allocation of their resources.
I had higher hopes for the offense, but it feels like everyone has gone backwards. I thought it wasn't unreasonable to be in the middle of the pack in offense. Obviously the organizational hitting strategy is a failure and changes need to be made. BC needs to get aggressive and start upgrading some positions.
I would love to see some major bat upgrading as well.
I will say, though, that I am of the opinion that they need to go now if they are going to go. Another month of this lineup and they will likely be far enough back in the race that there is no point in paying a deadline premium to add; at that point might as well wait til winter. Go big (and now) or go home. Don’t throw away valuable assets a month from now for too little, too late.
I agree. Trade now and if things fall apart, you can trade away assets for next year.
Only Cherington would be unable to find OFs who can’t hit OR field.
The defensive falloff from Reynolds is concerning. I wonder if moving him to right would help, but that presumes we have someone who can play a quality left field. The bat has been fire, which I’ve been glad to see, but the defense does little to alleviate my concerns about the contract.
You should have no concerns about his contract. It's not your money.
It’s really irrelevant whose money it is. What matters to me is that there is a fixed amount of it. So if I want to see Oneil Cruz or Paul Skenes signed to a contract extension, because I’m a big fan of theirs, this inhibits that ability. Not to mention if the contract goes south it further inhibits their ability to be competitive. So if you’re a fan of the team, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t care?