There were some obvious holes in our roster, so the Pirates spent around $35 mil to sign veterans we hoped could help the "kids" play competitively. 'Cutch, Hill, Joe, VV, and Santana were worth the money, but injuries took their toll. Losing our superstar Oneil Cruz, and then VV after his impressive work helping to solidify the Rotation, then Choi, etc. and here we are again.
Happy to see Castro traded (for his sake), but we still have 5 or 6 MI's. We have to find a CF so that Reynolds and Suwinski can stay in the corners. Hayes needs to stay on the field and start to hit. And, the Rotation needs to be re-built again. Good start with Keller and Oviedo both showing well, and Priester up, but we need at least one more dependable arm to step up. If we get more that's even better.
The worry I have, which I’ve had since the days of Ka’i Tom, is not that Cherington and Co are not trying to build a good team. It’s that they are trying, and this is the best they can come up with.
Top 100 prospect in OUR organization, not castoffs. we aren't talking about players from 10 years ago that are already FAILED top prospects, we are talking about all players which have been top 100 prospects in the past 2 seasons..........do i need to specifically state that?
Do you know how many Top 100 prospects fail? Heck, do you know how many Top 20 prospects fail? Go back and start looking at the lists. It’l sober you up.
Of course I do. But you have to start by having the talent to begin with, which is the point. Would you rather have a bevy of prospects that have no pedigree? My point is: That a solid rebuild and chances for success are infinitly better having 7 former top prospects as rookies versus 2. And I think we've seen that exact story play out in previous rebuilds. We've never had this many top prospects before, ever. Instead of being cynical and talking about how many top 20 prospects fail, how about talking about the % success rate for them versus prospects whom at least gotten to AA or AAA (take your pick) without even having been on a top 100 list. Its probably something like 25-30% vs .2%
All optimism and pessimism aside, I like our potential, but will they realize it? Senzel and India have disappointed for the Reds. Will our guys go that way or the way of our 60s rookies like Hebner, Oliver, et al?
meanwhile others in Cincy have led to their resurgence. Their current status is 100% youth. If Oneil Cruz hits 40 homeruns next year, and Liover plays fantastic defense, hits .275 with 15 bombs, noone cares if Gonzales hits .190 and is sent back to Indy. If Endy plays plus defense, hits .270 with a .800 OPS, noone cares if Henry Davis becomes a platoon outfielder hitting .250 with a .740 OPS. We don't need them all to produce. If you have a steady stream of top prospects coming up each year, they should plug the holes from the ones that fail, or should be used as trade chips to plug those holes. That's how a team is built
And Gonzales fell off every single list because of swing and miss issues that even a dumb fan like me picked up on back in 2021.
He's more likely to be Josh Vanmeter at this point than live up to Top 10 draft pick and Top 100 prospect status, because the kid can't hit breaking balls or offspeed. You can see in his month by month pitch data that the league is adjusting.
It doesn't matter how you frame it. The fact of the matter is being a "former top 100 prospect" doesn't mean a damn thing unless they develop them into productive players. It's just a talking point. Ortiz is a "former top 100 prospect" getting hit to shit. Priester is a "former top 100 prospect" getting hit to shit. "They need time like Keller". Oh, cool, sooooo they MIGHT be good in 3 to 4 more years? What was the point then?
And it's honestly more a knock on Pirates development than the players. Kind of like how metrics love Hayes, but they still can't get him to be a productive hitter, the metrics on Ro's pitches isn't terrible. But, I wanna know what happened to his fastball. He had a better Stuff+ than Keller last year, and it's just gone kerplunk.
The kudos I'll give them is at least identifying and/or developing sliders. Been killing it there
For sure, our development leaves plenty to be desired. Though, I get all hot and sweaty for top prospects as much as anyone else, but unfortunately even then it is somewhat of a crapshoot across the league on whether or not they will develop into anything.
Also, still looking for that signature offensive skill to develop because none of the ones that come to my mind are positive lol
Man im glad to have him healthy again *knocks on wood* because hes got way too much natural athleticism to never have a chance to become something because of injury
What do we have for 2024? We won’t sign any big time FAs, that’s for sure.
C - Endy
1b - Who knows?
2b - Gonzales needs to pick it up. Probably Liover.
SS - Cruz
3b - The Good fielding, no hitting Hayes
OF - In all likelihood, Reynolds, Suwinski and Davis. Jared Jones maybe by mid-season. Skenes, for all his promise has yet to throw a professional pitch. If he IS what he is purported to be, probably Altoona/Indy then Pgh on Sept.
SP - Keller and Oviedo. After that, you have question marks in Bido, Priester, Contreras and Ortiz.
RP - Bednar and Holderman for 8th and 9th. Others are up and down. We might be able to cobble together an average pen, tho, since RPs are so fungible.
Who is going to have the better very tall and tooled-up cruz in two years? Also matt mcclain is riding a .400 babip heater for 70 games, he should be hitting .240-.250 with normal babip luck
WTM……I agree 100%. I didn’t think the additions of these vets (and Cutch surprised me) would improve our team much and they didn’t. Sure, Santana and Hedges gave us defense, but their poor offense counteracted it.
But, hey, now we have two more teenagers to root for. Maybe by 2029 we’ll see how good they are?
I agree with Wilbur's high level point that BC hasn't executed his strategy at a high level. At least so far. Most agree that a rebuild was required after his hire in the Fall of 2019. The issue isn't the strategy, it's the execution: namely, we are four years into the rebuild and it isn't clear we are on the verge of contending. The off-season signings were nickel and dime moves, as Wilbur says, and the return on flipping them predictably was nickels and dimes. Worse still, most of the young players have been disappointing this year, particularly Contreras. Priester is a question mark, and is not looking like a top of the rotation starter at this point in his development. A lot of the talent acquired in high profile trades has not panned out, e.g., Eddy Yean and Hudson Head, the headliners in the Musgrove and Bell deals. While the international signings have improved under BC, strangely the prior regime was better at reclamation projects and bullpen building. What you want in a GM is someone that sees things in other players that other teams don't see, and BC hasn't proven he has that ability to date.
I love Bednar, but he isn't as valuable as Musgrove. That's the problem with this strategy. It's very, very hard to get better trading away 3-4 WAR players. They are hard to come by, so you ordinarily shouldn't trade them. At some point, you need to sign or develop, and then keep, your 3+ WAR guys. The only 3+ WAR guy we have, maybe, is Reynolds, and he isn't performing at that level this year.
The delicious baseball irony in all my Huntington trade griping of not going for enough upside is that he got the results I ultimately sought in the form of Joe Musgrove and Bryan Reynolds, neither of whom were close to fitting the mold I bitched about from the start.
A 2-WAR first base platoon, 1.5-2 WAR 5th starter, and a catcher who was just acquired by the 3rd best team in the AL for their playoff push. That plus a resurgent Cutch, improved Vince Velasquez, and versatile bat in Connor Joe is a pretty darn good off season, relative to what I see across the league.
That mix would've been precisely what this club needed, IF the young core they were acquired to support didn't stink.
I'm no fan of Cherington's team building, but my focus in what's wrong falls elsewhere than this article's.
Very much do side with Wilbur on the whole "veteran presents" take, tho.
File that along with "build not rebuild" in your media-carrying-water-for-management folder. Pittsburgh truly is the easiest place to work in all of baseball, what a plush gig.
And I'm sorry, but, I can't take FG seriously anymore from a prospect grading standpoint (generally speaking. not saying you do). Their pre-season list, sure, but saying the Pirates currently have the #1 farm? No.
He hasn't made it back to the majors this year outside of one AB, but one exited player I'd be curious about is Diego Castillo. He's having a strong Triple-A year, and it's mostly cause the DBacks had him go back to the he IS, not the player the Pirates were trying to make him BE.
I don’t think rankings matter much (to the extent they matter at all) during the season because it’s so fluid with prospects during the season. Take a look at the end and before the season to see how they look.
They’ll be closer to 10th by that time. Which feels more accurate. They’re first now because it’s a weird time.
I only bring it up cause it's the hot topic with their "update". I agree it'll likely be closer to 10th. Though it very well could see a boost propped up by Skenes, Termarr, Jones, Solo, Bubba, Harrington, and yes I'm throwing in Ashcraft.
I also do partially agree with NMR's sentiment about Reds system, in that it's getting a little overblown at this point by what I'll call national farm darling syndrome. They got a lot of great young kids, but the glut is graduated already this season.
I can't imagine BA or Pipeline, who do during season updates, having them #1. FG literally doesn't even have a Top 100 at this point.
That’s fair. How many of those guys you mention get to 50’s though? Even if all those arms move up to 50’s (maybe), they’ll graduate Endy, Davis, and prolly Triolo and Priester too. Of course all this is just weird, fun math. All I, and people here, care about is if these guys turn into productive big leaguers.
You bring up an interesting point on the Reds and their system. Personally, I was never a big fan of the Collier hype (he’s young! Seemed to be his biggest trait last year). Marte looks like he can hit some, but like some of their other recent grads, isn’t much with the glove. Ironically, their arms may be in better shape, which they need...but aside from Richardson, I’m not sure any are close.
One thing I’ll say though, they started their rebuild well after Pgh did and they look better off.
Tank graduates tomorrow (assuming he plays) with 2 ABs. Endy will be closer to a month from now. I wouldn't even necessarily say it's quantity, cause they only have 46 ranked, as opposed to they had 63 in 2022 updated.
My point was they have a 60, 3 55fv guys and 30+ guys who run 40-50fv where you see Bench, Swing/Spot SP, Middle RP outcomes or better. There's a lot of low ceiling, high floor MLB players in there, sure, but we have more MLB players in our system than most.
It really is. Cause I'm sitting here wondering, what is different? What is new? After nearly 4 years. We were expecting, hoping, they'd be innovative. Or in the least catch up.
Instead it feels they've become even MORE risk adverse. So much, I'm beginning to miss the Archer trade. A modicum of hope and excitement. We want them to emulate the successful "small markets", but they're so afraid of risk.
Again, their WHOLE spiel was about acquiring and developing depth. They've struggled to even get hitters to Double-A, let alone excel at Double-A.
Well.......no. Santana (while maybe below average HITTER for the position) played much better defense for the position which is why they got him. Overall did he underperform? WAR says he was worth 1 WAR, an incredible achievement over the what? -3 we had last year at the position. We gain four wins there for less than 10M and traded him back for a position player with controllable years. Thats a double win. Sorry it doesn't fit your take.
Um, 1 WAR isn't good or even fair (replacement level and average aren't the same thing), except in relation to the historical disaster that BC created last year. So, yeah, Santana improved the Pirates at first from historically horrific to just poor. BC setting the bar low, as always.
By the way, Carlos Santana, based off DRS in 2023, would be the BEST defensive player on 13 MLB teams this season. Way to overlook defensive value just like any old yinzer
If Santana is such a fabulous player, why was the sole return a guy BA rated 37th among the prospects involved in deadline deals? Probably because major league teams since, oh, 1920 prioritize offense at 1B. Evidently, the other 29 teams just aren’t that impressed.
Oh, and the 1.0 WAR, which is not in fact good, includes defensive value.
Considering he was a below average hitter, a 1 WAR (considering the Defensive hated for 1B) is NOT bad at all. Maybe look at where he stands against DRS for first baseman across the league? OR no.......because you just want to shit on him.
I agree that I'm not upset at the returns, I'm upset that they're essentially signaling treading water. Still.
We know they aren't going to do anything splashy in the off-season, cause they never do. It's not their style. Maybe they'll seek "higher" paid FA's, but even those are likely to be gradual step ups. I'll say I'd be intrigued on a VV reunion, but otherwise, what are they really going to go after? Veteran "established" version of the already backlog of back-end starters they have? At least pitching wise (as I've stated), I have some confidence in the upcoming arms as opposed to the existing.
Where my biggest issues stand are with the bats. They brought back arms really of the nature that already existed, and the lotto bats are teenagers in complex leagues. They haven't really shown an ability to develop and get the most out of the 40/45 value types. Jack is their one example of hitters, and he's probably settling into a role player (a good one). Alika is showing some promise, so fingers crossed there. But I'm not really sure of the steps forward they've taken.
Does the lineup have more "wow" factor? Yes, but in 2024 it'll once again be contingent on most of the roster playing up to their ceilings and expectations. We see what has happened just with the Cruz injury. If they lose one or two of their more promising bats to injuries, or they slump, what's the backfill? The same players they've been using to trudge along the past few seasons.
I've been seeing articles discussing the deadline and how the Pirates "kept their core intact". They don't have a core to have kept intact, it's just a perceived one due to the state of the roster. Their core, should they succeed, is only just arriving. Get a new hitting coach/philosophy, and maybe they get the actually good Reynolds back, maybe Key FINALLY uptaps his power. Jack is fine for what he is, but I wouldn't exactly pencil him in as "core". Maybe he continues to develop into a part of it, but he's been a kid that will carry the offense for 3-4 games then disappear for next 2 weeks. We're still not sure if Cruz took the steps he needed to. Triolo is probably the best bench/platoon option they've had of the bunch, but that's bench/platoon. Peggy, Endy and Tank are the hitters I'm feeling most confident as of now. Alika to a lesser degree is intriguing me, if not the fact he's really good at what he's good at, which is mostly defense. While so far showing he's not a pushover with the bat.
A good team like the Rangers wanted Hedges, cause a good team can hide his inefficiencies within their lineup. On a roster like the Pirates, they're an airhorn cause it's subpar.
I want to be the O's or Rays who have prospects killing it in the upper levels, but can't crack the MLB roster, cause where are they gonna play? Instead I'm sitting here groveling about how probably by April of next season we're already going to see, "THEY NEED TO CALL UP TERMARR NOW!!!!!!", or insert various other prospects.
No- they didn't bring arms back of the nature that we already had. We don't have lefties.......ANYWHERE in the system, because we never draft them. We have a bullpen FULL of Tall, Righties that throw hard, have no damn control, and throw sliders. I'm not sure if you ever played baseball but if you thrown one guy out there whom is the exact same style of pitcher as the AB before, it does NOTHING to help you win. You need some guys with different arm angles, throwing the the other side, etc. This is a big win to fill some real diversity gaps in our pitching staff.
If you want to break it down to those very intricate details, then sure. But, they do have 3 lefties in the pen currently. They have a funky LH starter in Solo, who throws harder. Barco may very well be in Altoona early-mid next year.
The one angle I can see is they like the development of Borucki into a rather dependable LH relief option. Who added a sweeper, and they think they can either turn Wolf and/or Falter into similar relief options, or parlay that success into making them viable starters.
All that said, I remember people that wanted Brubaker gone for options that currently are nearly as good or worse than he's been. A backend starter is a backend starter.
Well those intricate details was the exact point and purpose of my response. Having a swing guy and or a backend lefty starter provides benefits beyond that game regardless of his performance.
The _hitters_ are here. Whether or not they hit is up to them and I guess Haines. If Davis, Endy, Nick G, Peggy, Reynolds, Cruz and Suwinski all don't hit, we're f'd. That's our offensive core plus Termarr. I hope next year we take the top college 3B in the draft and signal to Hayes he's getting shipped out at the 2025 trade deadline.
If we pick in the top 6 there should be a quality college bat, a couple that can play 3rd a few that play first or corner outfield. They might not be as high as Crews and Langford (I personally like 2 better) but are better than the second tier this past year.
I think JJ and Kurtz are clearly the top two hitters. I think they would have went in the top 7 picks this year if not top 5. I think I even posted that way before the draft this year.
Are they? They have promise, and have shown flashes but to say they’re here is being presumptuous. Termarr is two to three years away. And, until he does it at AA, I can’t put him in that class any way. Too much can go wrong.
As you say, if they don’t hit……hopefully, they will. But, until they do, well, I’ve seen that Pirate movie too many times to get my hopes up. 3 good years in the last 30 will do that to a Foo.
I’m replying to your very first sentence. But, I agree that, if the don’t hit BC has failed and should be gone. To me, he is already on thin ice. Take a look at Cincy and the O’s. The Reds started rebuilding AFTER us!
There were some obvious holes in our roster, so the Pirates spent around $35 mil to sign veterans we hoped could help the "kids" play competitively. 'Cutch, Hill, Joe, VV, and Santana were worth the money, but injuries took their toll. Losing our superstar Oneil Cruz, and then VV after his impressive work helping to solidify the Rotation, then Choi, etc. and here we are again.
Happy to see Castro traded (for his sake), but we still have 5 or 6 MI's. We have to find a CF so that Reynolds and Suwinski can stay in the corners. Hayes needs to stay on the field and start to hit. And, the Rotation needs to be re-built again. Good start with Keller and Oviedo both showing well, and Priester up, but we need at least one more dependable arm to step up. If we get more that's even better.
Priester being up doesn’t make him dependable. Far from it, so far.
The worry I have, which I’ve had since the days of Ka’i Tom, is not that Cherington and Co are not trying to build a good team. It’s that they are trying, and this is the best they can come up with.
https://y2jgq2.substack.com/p/dont-be-a-yinzer-not-everything-is?sd=pf
Sorry, but I’m from the 70s and 80s when it was ‘Yunz’, so I didn’t make it past your headline. I HATE ‘yinz’.
There was never a "yunzer" and Yinzer is not a positive thing to be, that's the point of the article.
I'm sorry, but, do you know how many "former top 100" players we've ran through the past couple seasons? Bryse Wilson, was a former Top 100 prospect.
Top 100 Prospects from our organization? none. All of them are still on the team from the last couple of years as far as i know.
Top 100 prospect in OUR organization, not castoffs. we aren't talking about players from 10 years ago that are already FAILED top prospects, we are talking about all players which have been top 100 prospects in the past 2 seasons..........do i need to specifically state that?
Do you know how many Top 100 prospects fail? Heck, do you know how many Top 20 prospects fail? Go back and start looking at the lists. It’l sober you up.
Of course I do. But you have to start by having the talent to begin with, which is the point. Would you rather have a bevy of prospects that have no pedigree? My point is: That a solid rebuild and chances for success are infinitly better having 7 former top prospects as rookies versus 2. And I think we've seen that exact story play out in previous rebuilds. We've never had this many top prospects before, ever. Instead of being cynical and talking about how many top 20 prospects fail, how about talking about the % success rate for them versus prospects whom at least gotten to AA or AAA (take your pick) without even having been on a top 100 list. Its probably something like 25-30% vs .2%
All optimism and pessimism aside, I like our potential, but will they realize it? Senzel and India have disappointed for the Reds. Will our guys go that way or the way of our 60s rookies like Hebner, Oliver, et al?
meanwhile others in Cincy have led to their resurgence. Their current status is 100% youth. If Oneil Cruz hits 40 homeruns next year, and Liover plays fantastic defense, hits .275 with 15 bombs, noone cares if Gonzales hits .190 and is sent back to Indy. If Endy plays plus defense, hits .270 with a .800 OPS, noone cares if Henry Davis becomes a platoon outfielder hitting .250 with a .740 OPS. We don't need them all to produce. If you have a steady stream of top prospects coming up each year, they should plug the holes from the ones that fail, or should be used as trade chips to plug those holes. That's how a team is built
And Gonzales fell off every single list because of swing and miss issues that even a dumb fan like me picked up on back in 2021.
He's more likely to be Josh Vanmeter at this point than live up to Top 10 draft pick and Top 100 prospect status, because the kid can't hit breaking balls or offspeed. You can see in his month by month pitch data that the league is adjusting.
It doesn't matter how you frame it. The fact of the matter is being a "former top 100 prospect" doesn't mean a damn thing unless they develop them into productive players. It's just a talking point. Ortiz is a "former top 100 prospect" getting hit to shit. Priester is a "former top 100 prospect" getting hit to shit. "They need time like Keller". Oh, cool, sooooo they MIGHT be good in 3 to 4 more years? What was the point then?
Oooh keller, roansy, ortiz, and priester... we could have nearly a full rotation of top 100s!
And it's honestly more a knock on Pirates development than the players. Kind of like how metrics love Hayes, but they still can't get him to be a productive hitter, the metrics on Ro's pitches isn't terrible. But, I wanna know what happened to his fastball. He had a better Stuff+ than Keller last year, and it's just gone kerplunk.
The kudos I'll give them is at least identifying and/or developing sliders. Been killing it there
For sure, our development leaves plenty to be desired. Though, I get all hot and sweaty for top prospects as much as anyone else, but unfortunately even then it is somewhat of a crapshoot across the league on whether or not they will develop into anything.
Also, still looking for that signature offensive skill to develop because none of the ones that come to my mind are positive lol
Ah yes anthony alford
what season was anthony alford a top 100 prospect?
2016, 2017, and 2018
Michael Chavis.
Another great game at Low A
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=8/2/2023&gamePk=729579&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=batter&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=&sportId=14
Strong pitching from Bidois and Peralta
Lonnie White Jr and Mitch Jebb with good games
Lonnie go boom
Man im glad to have him healthy again *knocks on wood* because hes got way too much natural athleticism to never have a chance to become something because of injury
Anybody that Penn State would want HAS to be talented.
As a Pitt man myself, I would say that we saved him from a much worse fate by drafting him :)
I USED to like you. 😂😂
Actually, I know some very fine Pitt men.
Fingers crossed
trading Castro was the first shot fired in the end of pandering to Oneil Cruz?
second shot fired is the the batting line of Lliover Peguero these days?
third will be him playing baseball on the mlb team again in 2023?
Hoping oneil is getting a fire lit underneath him, but not sure if he is or isnt that kinda guy
He needs a fire lit under him why?
Another good game at Low A
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=8/2/2023&gamePk=729579&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=batter&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=&sportId=14
And so so from AAA
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=8/2/2023&gamePk=723633&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=playerBreakdown&sportId=11#723633
What do we have for 2024? We won’t sign any big time FAs, that’s for sure.
C - Endy
1b - Who knows?
2b - Gonzales needs to pick it up. Probably Liover.
SS - Cruz
3b - The Good fielding, no hitting Hayes
OF - In all likelihood, Reynolds, Suwinski and Davis. Jared Jones maybe by mid-season. Skenes, for all his promise has yet to throw a professional pitch. If he IS what he is purported to be, probably Altoona/Indy then Pgh on Sept.
SP - Keller and Oviedo. After that, you have question marks in Bido, Priester, Contreras and Ortiz.
RP - Bednar and Holderman for 8th and 9th. Others are up and down. We might be able to cobble together an average pen, tho, since RPs are so fungible.
Will they hit .500? 2024 was NH’s 2012 season.
We _need_ a SP in the Nola, Gray, Snell, Stroman, Giolito group or someone near there if they have any notion of competing in the NLC.
its so true
wish they´d buy low on Manoah or Kopech
those two dude fit the mold you are talking about
Mlod and Yerry are certainly in that discussion
Cutch will DH
Hill, Santana, Hedges and Choi cost $20+ mil
Less holes to fill so if we at least have the same budget, there is more of that money going to less guys in 2024
Convincing a high caliber guy to a one year $20mil contract is tougher than trading for. a $20mil guy on the last year of his contract
We can take alonso off the mets' hands for a year lol
should have taken a chance on Bellinger last winter and made him sign a club option deal
Trade for alonso and go for Erod or montgomery in the rotation and tell the young core its gotta do its thing
who are you sending back to the Mets?
Gonzales works per BTV though im certainly skeptical
I still say that club's more talented than the Reds.
Mark that down so you all can clown me when I'm wrong, but I think they're in for more disappointment than takeoff.
I hope so, but my confidence in that ebbs by the day.
Senzel and India have underperformed, so you may have a point. It will they win the division?
Sheesh, I suppose somebody has to! What a Division this year...
The AL CENTRAL is even worse. Will the winner end up over .500?
I hope you are right, I personally would love to see them crash and burn more than any team in the division
Kevin Newman is a better hitter than Elly De La Cruz.
I SAID WHAT I SAID.
Who is going to have the better very tall and tooled-up cruz in two years? Also matt mcclain is riding a .400 babip heater for 70 games, he should be hitting .240-.250 with normal babip luck
Right now we’ve got the Wish version.
WTM……I agree 100%. I didn’t think the additions of these vets (and Cutch surprised me) would improve our team much and they didn’t. Sure, Santana and Hedges gave us defense, but their poor offense counteracted it.
But, hey, now we have two more teenagers to root for. Maybe by 2029 we’ll see how good they are?
I agree with Wilbur's high level point that BC hasn't executed his strategy at a high level. At least so far. Most agree that a rebuild was required after his hire in the Fall of 2019. The issue isn't the strategy, it's the execution: namely, we are four years into the rebuild and it isn't clear we are on the verge of contending. The off-season signings were nickel and dime moves, as Wilbur says, and the return on flipping them predictably was nickels and dimes. Worse still, most of the young players have been disappointing this year, particularly Contreras. Priester is a question mark, and is not looking like a top of the rotation starter at this point in his development. A lot of the talent acquired in high profile trades has not panned out, e.g., Eddy Yean and Hudson Head, the headliners in the Musgrove and Bell deals. While the international signings have improved under BC, strangely the prior regime was better at reclamation projects and bullpen building. What you want in a GM is someone that sees things in other players that other teams don't see, and BC hasn't proven he has that ability to date.
Another point: NH got us three good years. NH > BC. NH just couldn’t sustain it.
As QP’s FB regressed, so did his ‘front of the rotation’ expectations. He’s barely a #5 now.
Priester needs to ask Keller for a referral to the training program he went to last offseason.
For Musgrove we got Bednar and Endy. THAT deal was one of BC’s few good ones, at least far.
I love Bednar, but he isn't as valuable as Musgrove. That's the problem with this strategy. It's very, very hard to get better trading away 3-4 WAR players. They are hard to come by, so you ordinarily shouldn't trade them. At some point, you need to sign or develop, and then keep, your 3+ WAR guys. The only 3+ WAR guy we have, maybe, is Reynolds, and he isn't performing at that level this year.
Fair point, but are both Bednar and Endy worth it for a guy who was gonna walk and we get nada. Ergo, great deal.
Btw, for Cole we got Musgrove who turned into Endy and Bednar. In a fair baseball world, I’d prefer Cole, but we got what we got.
The delicious baseball irony in all my Huntington trade griping of not going for enough upside is that he got the results I ultimately sought in the form of Joe Musgrove and Bryan Reynolds, neither of whom were close to fitting the mold I bitched about from the start.
Huntington got us to the playoffs three years in a row. Nuff said.
A 2-WAR first base platoon, 1.5-2 WAR 5th starter, and a catcher who was just acquired by the 3rd best team in the AL for their playoff push. That plus a resurgent Cutch, improved Vince Velasquez, and versatile bat in Connor Joe is a pretty darn good off season, relative to what I see across the league.
That mix would've been precisely what this club needed, IF the young core they were acquired to support didn't stink.
I'm no fan of Cherington's team building, but my focus in what's wrong falls elsewhere than this article's.
Good offseason but still lousy season. So if it didn’t result in improvement, what was the point?
All of that. They added role players to role players.
Very much do side with Wilbur on the whole "veteran presents" take, tho.
File that along with "build not rebuild" in your media-carrying-water-for-management folder. Pittsburgh truly is the easiest place to work in all of baseball, what a plush gig.
And I'm sorry, but, I can't take FG seriously anymore from a prospect grading standpoint (generally speaking. not saying you do). Their pre-season list, sure, but saying the Pirates currently have the #1 farm? No.
Agreed, the scouting itself still holds up they just don't commit enough resources to staying relevant mid-year.
He hasn't made it back to the majors this year outside of one AB, but one exited player I'd be curious about is Diego Castillo. He's having a strong Triple-A year, and it's mostly cause the DBacks had him go back to the he IS, not the player the Pirates were trying to make him BE.
I don’t think rankings matter much (to the extent they matter at all) during the season because it’s so fluid with prospects during the season. Take a look at the end and before the season to see how they look.
They’ll be closer to 10th by that time. Which feels more accurate. They’re first now because it’s a weird time.
I only bring it up cause it's the hot topic with their "update". I agree it'll likely be closer to 10th. Though it very well could see a boost propped up by Skenes, Termarr, Jones, Solo, Bubba, Harrington, and yes I'm throwing in Ashcraft.
I also do partially agree with NMR's sentiment about Reds system, in that it's getting a little overblown at this point by what I'll call national farm darling syndrome. They got a lot of great young kids, but the glut is graduated already this season.
I can't imagine BA or Pipeline, who do during season updates, having them #1. FG literally doesn't even have a Top 100 at this point.
That’s fair. How many of those guys you mention get to 50’s though? Even if all those arms move up to 50’s (maybe), they’ll graduate Endy, Davis, and prolly Triolo and Priester too. Of course all this is just weird, fun math. All I, and people here, care about is if these guys turn into productive big leaguers.
You bring up an interesting point on the Reds and their system. Personally, I was never a big fan of the Collier hype (he’s young! Seemed to be his biggest trait last year). Marte looks like he can hit some, but like some of their other recent grads, isn’t much with the glove. Ironically, their arms may be in better shape, which they need...but aside from Richardson, I’m not sure any are close.
One thing I’ll say though, they started their rebuild well after Pgh did and they look better off.
They do until Davis graduates in a week and Endy shortly after but largely based on quantity and Skenes, Termarr, Endy and Davis.
Tank graduates tomorrow (assuming he plays) with 2 ABs. Endy will be closer to a month from now. I wouldn't even necessarily say it's quantity, cause they only have 46 ranked, as opposed to they had 63 in 2022 updated.
My point was they have a 60, 3 55fv guys and 30+ guys who run 40-50fv where you see Bench, Swing/Spot SP, Middle RP outcomes or better. There's a lot of low ceiling, high floor MLB players in there, sure, but we have more MLB players in our system than most.
It really is. Cause I'm sitting here wondering, what is different? What is new? After nearly 4 years. We were expecting, hoping, they'd be innovative. Or in the least catch up.
Instead it feels they've become even MORE risk adverse. So much, I'm beginning to miss the Archer trade. A modicum of hope and excitement. We want them to emulate the successful "small markets", but they're so afraid of risk.
Again, their WHOLE spiel was about acquiring and developing depth. They've struggled to even get hitters to Double-A, let alone excel at Double-A.
They definitely never allow themselves to fall in love with a player. It's "we're after MiFs who could play the OF" which is pure f'ing mediocrity.
So, you’re saying BC was on a ‘role’ and couldn’t stop?
Zing!!!!
Well.......no. Santana (while maybe below average HITTER for the position) played much better defense for the position which is why they got him. Overall did he underperform? WAR says he was worth 1 WAR, an incredible achievement over the what? -3 we had last year at the position. We gain four wins there for less than 10M and traded him back for a position player with controllable years. Thats a double win. Sorry it doesn't fit your take.
Um, 1 WAR isn't good or even fair (replacement level and average aren't the same thing), except in relation to the historical disaster that BC created last year. So, yeah, Santana improved the Pirates at first from historically horrific to just poor. BC setting the bar low, as always.
By the way, Carlos Santana, based off DRS in 2023, would be the BEST defensive player on 13 MLB teams this season. Way to overlook defensive value just like any old yinzer
If Santana is such a fabulous player, why was the sole return a guy BA rated 37th among the prospects involved in deadline deals? Probably because major league teams since, oh, 1920 prioritize offense at 1B. Evidently, the other 29 teams just aren’t that impressed.
Oh, and the 1.0 WAR, which is not in fact good, includes defensive value.
How important is 1b defense? Advanced defensive metrics are getting hilarious. Hedges worth his historically bad bat because of DRS, too?
Considering he was a below average hitter, a 1 WAR (considering the Defensive hated for 1B) is NOT bad at all. Maybe look at where he stands against DRS for first baseman across the league? OR no.......because you just want to shit on him.
I agree that I'm not upset at the returns, I'm upset that they're essentially signaling treading water. Still.
We know they aren't going to do anything splashy in the off-season, cause they never do. It's not their style. Maybe they'll seek "higher" paid FA's, but even those are likely to be gradual step ups. I'll say I'd be intrigued on a VV reunion, but otherwise, what are they really going to go after? Veteran "established" version of the already backlog of back-end starters they have? At least pitching wise (as I've stated), I have some confidence in the upcoming arms as opposed to the existing.
Where my biggest issues stand are with the bats. They brought back arms really of the nature that already existed, and the lotto bats are teenagers in complex leagues. They haven't really shown an ability to develop and get the most out of the 40/45 value types. Jack is their one example of hitters, and he's probably settling into a role player (a good one). Alika is showing some promise, so fingers crossed there. But I'm not really sure of the steps forward they've taken.
Does the lineup have more "wow" factor? Yes, but in 2024 it'll once again be contingent on most of the roster playing up to their ceilings and expectations. We see what has happened just with the Cruz injury. If they lose one or two of their more promising bats to injuries, or they slump, what's the backfill? The same players they've been using to trudge along the past few seasons.
I've been seeing articles discussing the deadline and how the Pirates "kept their core intact". They don't have a core to have kept intact, it's just a perceived one due to the state of the roster. Their core, should they succeed, is only just arriving. Get a new hitting coach/philosophy, and maybe they get the actually good Reynolds back, maybe Key FINALLY uptaps his power. Jack is fine for what he is, but I wouldn't exactly pencil him in as "core". Maybe he continues to develop into a part of it, but he's been a kid that will carry the offense for 3-4 games then disappear for next 2 weeks. We're still not sure if Cruz took the steps he needed to. Triolo is probably the best bench/platoon option they've had of the bunch, but that's bench/platoon. Peggy, Endy and Tank are the hitters I'm feeling most confident as of now. Alika to a lesser degree is intriguing me, if not the fact he's really good at what he's good at, which is mostly defense. While so far showing he's not a pushover with the bat.
A good team like the Rangers wanted Hedges, cause a good team can hide his inefficiencies within their lineup. On a roster like the Pirates, they're an airhorn cause it's subpar.
I want to be the O's or Rays who have prospects killing it in the upper levels, but can't crack the MLB roster, cause where are they gonna play? Instead I'm sitting here groveling about how probably by April of next season we're already going to see, "THEY NEED TO CALL UP TERMARR NOW!!!!!!", or insert various other prospects.
No- they didn't bring arms back of the nature that we already had. We don't have lefties.......ANYWHERE in the system, because we never draft them. We have a bullpen FULL of Tall, Righties that throw hard, have no damn control, and throw sliders. I'm not sure if you ever played baseball but if you thrown one guy out there whom is the exact same style of pitcher as the AB before, it does NOTHING to help you win. You need some guys with different arm angles, throwing the the other side, etc. This is a big win to fill some real diversity gaps in our pitching staff.
If you want to break it down to those very intricate details, then sure. But, they do have 3 lefties in the pen currently. They have a funky LH starter in Solo, who throws harder. Barco may very well be in Altoona early-mid next year.
The one angle I can see is they like the development of Borucki into a rather dependable LH relief option. Who added a sweeper, and they think they can either turn Wolf and/or Falter into similar relief options, or parlay that success into making them viable starters.
All that said, I remember people that wanted Brubaker gone for options that currently are nearly as good or worse than he's been. A backend starter is a backend starter.
Well those intricate details was the exact point and purpose of my response. Having a swing guy and or a backend lefty starter provides benefits beyond that game regardless of his performance.
A backend starter, whether it's a goofy Rich Hill lefty type or a hard throwing Oviedo type, is still a backend starter.
This organization needs potential backend starters like it needs potential Quad A OFs and INFs.
By that logic, just call up Cam Alldred. He's different.
Guy who thinks Legion ball qualifies him for big league roster construction. ;)
I watched moneyball once a few years ago...
Feels like this year was marking time for the pitching to catch up to the hitting. Don't look at Cutch's second half splits fwiw.
When is the hitting going to jump ahead of our dismal pitching?
The _hitters_ are here. Whether or not they hit is up to them and I guess Haines. If Davis, Endy, Nick G, Peggy, Reynolds, Cruz and Suwinski all don't hit, we're f'd. That's our offensive core plus Termarr. I hope next year we take the top college 3B in the draft and signal to Hayes he's getting shipped out at the 2025 trade deadline.
And that's my "oh shit" moment.
"This group NEEDS to be the ones that hit, or we're screwed"
If we pick in the top 6 there should be a quality college bat, a couple that can play 3rd a few that play first or corner outfield. They might not be as high as Crews and Langford (I personally like 2 better) but are better than the second tier this past year.
You hoping for JJ Country Roads, Mel?
I think JJ and Kurtz are clearly the top two hitters. I think they would have went in the top 7 picks this year if not top 5. I think I even posted that way before the draft this year.
Are they? They have promise, and have shown flashes but to say they’re here is being presumptuous. Termarr is two to three years away. And, until he does it at AA, I can’t put him in that class any way. Too much can go wrong.
As you say, if they don’t hit……hopefully, they will. But, until they do, well, I’ve seen that Pirate movie too many times to get my hopes up. 3 good years in the last 30 will do that to a Foo.
I'm saying if these hitters don't hit, this rebuild was a failure.
I’m replying to your very first sentence. But, I agree that, if the don’t hit BC has failed and should be gone. To me, he is already on thin ice. Take a look at Cincy and the O’s. The Reds started rebuilding AFTER us!
When you ask "are they" I mean "the hitters Cherington has developed" are here. These are the guys he thought he could get hitting.