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I've seen a lot of Falter posts etc.. so here is my long Starter Depth post addressing that.. all IMO.

Given - Keller - he has to perform and eat innings

Lock to Start in rotation but to count on a lot of innings is very risky - Perez and Gonzalez

A lot to prove but current rotation start of season candidates - Contreras, Priester, Ortiz

Candidate for start of year - 'he is what he is' - Falter

Mid or late year adds / depth:

Given to be in MLB - Brubaker - hopefully as a starter

Reasonable hope if they perform as we hope/dream: Skenes, Jones

Maybe some hope if they perform but a low ceiling - Wolf

Long shots unless they just crush from day 1 - their goal should be to get to AAA later in the year and set themselves up for 2025 or a token 2024 start - Solometo, Chandler, Harrington

Returning from TJ / and still needs to conquer AAA - Burrows - any MLB time is gravy - look to 2025

What does this have to do with Falter? For good or bad he seems like a poor mans innings eater compared to most on the above list. He had a miserable last outing but overall if the expectation is 4 or 5 innings of mediocrity he may be our man. While Gonzalez and Perez are locks in the rotation, they is also IMO a good chance only one of them really is healthy and/or able to provide regular productive starts considering their 2023 results. The other candidates outside of Keller could just get rocked as a worst case scenario (ie. like they did in 2023). This last paragraph sets a very low bar for the rotation but it is where we are and is my defense for why Falter should be kept around even if we add another (Syndergaard) starter.

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I could see an OD rotation of Keller, Gonzales, Perez, Priester, and Falter. With Ro in the pen, and Ortiz beginning in Triple-A. Priester and Ortiz are swappable depending on who has the better spring.

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I could see that with my documented concerns about Gonzalez/Perez. I do think Falter and Ro will be on the roster and one in long relief and the other in the rotation. I am hoping just because of our past dreams of his upside that Ro wins that battle for the rotation. I fully agree on a Priester vs. Ortiz spring training battle with the other in AAA.

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Really, it probably is mostly a battle of Ro vs Falter, and Priester vs Ortiz. The battle of no option players, and battle of optionable players.

In part I think Ortiz finds his way into the bullpen himself, and I think (hope) Quinn focused on all aspects non-fourseam fastball, as his FF as it stands really has no use other than a show me pitch.

They should get crazy, and go Keller, Perez, Marco, Quinn, and JARED JONES!!!!!!!!!!!! Both Falter and Roansy can go to the pen lol

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Jan 24Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I'd prefer Jones force his way into the picture by taking care of business in AAA. It's not that he was bad at all but mediocre might describe it. Given the options available (I know not all overly exciting), I would want to tell him to go give us no choice but to bring you up. If he is in the rotation to start the year it sure seems like there would have been a lot go wrong with either just dreadful performance or a repeat of the Bru/Bur gut punch of early last year.

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I know, it was most a fantasy than any expectation

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My apologies already on the format.. looked much better in the text box.

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Jan 24Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Bednar

Chapman

Holderman

Borucki

Moreta

Mlod

Hernandez

Contreras/Falter combine for the 5th SP spot and LRP

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Jan 24Author

One thing I should’ve pointed out explicitly above is that, of the guys who are strictly relievers, only Borucki and Chapman can’t be sent down. Even Bednar could be optioned if the earth stopped spinning or something. That’s an unusual level of flexibility.

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Middle relief guys with options are worth a lot more than middle relief guys without. Another reason to cheer on Ben's bullpen brigade from the last 2 drafts.

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I think Jose Hernandez and Moreta should be in AAA to start season.

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Moreta is a lock in my book. Dude was really good last season.

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Ditto, 1.00 fWAR was second best of our RP's with Closer David Bednar leading the way. Jose Hernandez could possibly benefit from time at AAA, or could he benefit more from working alongside Aroldis Chapman?

It's like a perfect storm of too much talent that could possibly be corrected by a trade for a High level Prospect CF?

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I'm not sure WAR is the best evaluator for relievers. It's way down the list after Inherited Runners scored, RISP scored, K Rate, HR allowed, BB rate, WHIP, exit velocity, barrel %, ground ball rate, etc.

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Not sure WAR is the best evaluator for Relievers either, and have no idea what specifics are involved in the calculation, but for my purposes it seems to be a decent comparative tool.

I did do enough research to know there is an article on Fangraphs titled WAR for Pitchers dated March 28, 2012. No, I have not taken the time to get deeper into what all is taken into consideration to arrive at the final number.

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I'm not a big fan of WAR, but if one must use it, it should be limited to position players only. There is a lot that goes into evaluating relievers and what is most valuable depends upon role. BB/9 is not quite so devastating for a reliever who is going to start a clean inning. For a fireman BB/9 and H/9 (i.e. WHIP) is crucial as is whiff rate and/or GB%. Also L/R splits are really important for relievers even in this day of the mandatory 3 batters. Lugies still have their place: not that you would ever know it watching Shelton and Hurdle handle the pen for the last decade.

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Jan 24Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

My bullpen would be:

1. Bednar

2. Chapman

3. Holderman

4. Mlodinski

5. Borucki

6. Moreta

7. Selby

8. Falter

I would trade: Contreras, Bae, Peguero for Bryce Miller from Mariners and sign Syndergaard (I saw the rumors) as the 5th starter and possible bounce back. I would love to sign Pederson to platoon with Olivares in RF. I think that could make this team a contender for less than $100M.

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Is Seattle gonna want that? Isn’t really a main piece in there for them.

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They need a 2nd baseman. I think Peguero has a high ceiling and bae could be another option for them. I think another team would use bae correctly and he’d become a nice bench piece. I think Contreras could be intriguing to them but if they need to I would part with another pitching prospect if that would get it done. The simulator has mariners winning the trade but you are right they may not want any of those guys. I want woo or miller from Seattle is my point though and I would give up pretty much any pitching prospect for them other than skenes, since they both have so much control left.

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I like Woo and Miller too, I think they’d probably want a larger piece though. Like Holderman, which I’d be fine with. And agreed on the price.

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Well, we traded Marte for Peguero ;)

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I agree with this list except I'd keep Contreras and have Selby start in AAA. For one, it gives Selby the chance to pitch more regularly and in higher leverage situations.

Though if Contreras could be part of a deal to bring back a more proven starter, I'd do that in a minute.

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Yeah I agree if Contreras isn’t traded I’d flip the two.

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Jan 24·edited Jan 24

I'm guessing Falter gets DFA'd for Chapman. There's really no logical reason of keeping him on the roster...he'll more than likely clear anyway.

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Castro had a good deal of value... so Falter isn't nothing.

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I remember Mackey reporting that BC was high on Falter for whatever reason. I don’t expect him to be the one removed from the 40-man.

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Starting to sense a pattern here lol BC also publicly spoke highly on their acquisitions of Yajure and Marcano, the latter of which they had been "targeting for a while".

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Jan 24Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

also watch out when he says he´ll "leave the door open..."

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Could probably write a 10 novel series of how everything they do doesn't make any sense lol

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Man who stands on toilet, high on pot.

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Jan 24Author

Not really related, but I can’t forget NH gushing about how much they liked Drew Hutchison.

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I was actually pro-Hutchinson at the time, in part cause I thought he fit the mold of "pitchers the Pirates find success with". But it was also during the time hitting philosophies were shifting and the Pirates one-dimensional method of pitching no longer was feasible.

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In Hutchison’s case, I think that was more or less lying to mask the fact that the trade was an obvious salary dump.

I don’t really see the benefit to exaggerating interest in Falter, considering what they gave up to acquire him.

That being said, my expectations for Falter are around where they were with Hutchison (a warm body).

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Correct. I think they needed warm bodies in the rotation at the time. They just lost 60% of their rotation...Hill traded, Roansy sucked and VV IL for the remainder of the season.

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I'm thinking you might be right about Falter getting DFA'd. Thoug the logical reason for keeping him would be the Pirates have a shortage of multiple innings guys and a surplus of one inning guys. I am guessing Nicholas or Selby would be near the bottom of th list for one inning guys.

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Williams will be my choice, and he might even clear. Alcantaras is basically the same player plus speed and a cannon and he’s not in the 40.

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If guys like VanMeter are getting claimed, I wonder if we could get any minor leaguer with potential back for Williams.

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No.

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Do you think if he gets DFA'd, he will get claimed?

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Yes, but a Milb contract only.

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Jan 24·edited Jan 24Author

Can’t say it’d give me heartburn.

CSN has survived longer than I expected, though. Can’t see a path forward for him.

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Based on strictly raw power, he might be #1 out of the guys on the 40 man. Watching the way he finished the year in Indy was just ridiculous how much better he looked, especially at his approach. He was a man amongst boys. His path would be right field, even thought the Pirates probably won't go that route. I think his potential is much higher than Palacios or Oliveras.

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Jan 24Author

They just seem so enamored with these AAAA guys.

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He had no business being in the majors last year or getting 32 at bats, but I just don't think he was ready at age 23. I would have been fine cutting him in April/May. I thought he was cocky, lazy, thought he was better than he really was, and probably got caught up in all the media with his brother. I'm just saying seeing him down the stretch last year I saw a guy that was focused and hopefully matured.

The Pirates are without a doubt a team that gets caught up in AAAA players, but I don't want to put him in that category yet. Oliveras ad Palacios at age 24 were at best AAAA players.

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Jan 24Author

I meant the AAAA thing in the sense that they seem to like those guys better than CSN, who’s still properly viewed as a prospect imo.

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Yeah... I would be very disappointed if the Pirates DFA'd CSN. To get Oliveras and DFA CSN would be one of the stupidest moves that I have seen in some time from the Pirates' front office, and that is saying something.

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Oh, then I agree. :)

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I think how the possible starters and long relievers do in spring training will make some of the decisions on what the Pirates need for relievers. Roansy, Luis Oritz, Falter, Priester, maybe Wolf, slight chance Borucki will be considered as a starter, probably no chance for Mlodzinski.

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Borucki was such a good 8th inning lefty, that I was surprised we got Chapman for all those $$$s. But then I thought about the possibility of Borucki as a Starter (which he has done succesfully in the past), and that would make a lot of sense. Still a strong BP, and we get our Starter internally.

Of course, the easier theory is that we trade a solid reliever (Borucky? Holderman?) as part of a package for a Starter. Hence, getting an 8th inning guy as Chapman.

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I agree 100%. Plus Borucki is only 29. I'd like to see us stretch him out.

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In looking at the list, it feels more likely than not a trade from this depth is in the making. My guess is Holderman is most likely, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bednar is included in a deal for a “good” SP.

If they go into camp with all of these guys, this has to be best bullpen on paper since Watson, Melancon, and Grilli were patrolling The Shark Tank.

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A trade would seem likely in late March when someone's set-up or closer goes down with TJ or shoulder. It happens every March.

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Hopefully it’s not our turn to suffer this fate, but if it is, we have quality bullpen depth.

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With Chapman and Borucki (and probably Falter as lhps) I would prefer Jose Hernandez go to AAA to either stretch out and work on a change up or close down there to get used to a leverage role.

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Just IMO... I have Moreta and Mlodzinski swapping spots. ie. Moreta a near-lock and Mlod a solid 2023. If I were guessing pre spring training I would have Mlod as the final spot with Hernandez and Heller as the competition. Also, too BMac's point. Perez was much better in the pen, but he was signed to start and I don't see that changing in April or May. Now, longer term who knows.

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My thoughts on Perez as well. He'll hold down a rotation spot until someone else is ready. If he pitches like 2022 he will stay in the rotation.

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Jan 24Author

Fair enough point on M&M. Moreta had a couple of short but truly horrific stretches, and other than that was REALLY good. Maybe was dinged up, I dunno.

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Jan 24Liked by WTM

Moreta really impressed me. Caveat on all of this.. while the bullpen in the big picture was effective, somebody is almost guaranteed to either melt down after a good year or be hurt. Luckily there is decent depth or some who may 'earn' (ie. crash and burn in their last chance at starting) their way into the pen.

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Jan 24Author

I don’t really worry about specifics much with this depth. If they do it right, the moves will make themselves.

The one thing I wanted to see for the bullpen this offseason was adding an established setup guy, preferably LH. They’ve totally failed in every other area so far, but that one . . . .

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Moreta, when he was pitching really good was our best fireman.

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Holderman plus second base surplus plus prospect for starter

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Ro, Ortiz and Peguero for Cabrera, Weathers and Berry from the Marlins.

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Would be quite happy with this

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That’s sounds like a package I will post on BTV, don’t doubt that I haven’t. The way that Weathers pitch against us had me hoping that we would target him.

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Jan 24·edited Jan 24

You'll have to add Alderman and the comp pick B to make it fair lol.

I'd still be fine with just Cabrera, Weathers and Berry or Alderman. They could substitute the pick for Berry or Alderman.

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Berry can’t hit or field.

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I know, hope if we got him the hit tool would come around. Alderman would be my preference of the two but would rather have the pick.

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That's a lot of depth. Ortiz may end up as a reliever to add to the crowd.

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Jan 24Author

I left out starters other than the ones with no options. There are some other guys you could throw in there. Wolf, maybe. They got a lot to sort through.

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I was thinking that, but outside of maybe Ortiz I personally (because they really care what I think) would still like them attempting to start.

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forgot Martin Perez

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