Good article and insightful comments, and yet I’m not concerned with what happens at the complex and single A, I get that they move up, but the lower levels is the easiest to retool by drafting and trades.
WTM telling it like it is. 5 years in the rebuild and putting a Bradenton team on the field full of missed draft picks is very bad. I’m not impressed with someone who picks Skenes when most would have done so. The drafting strategy of the last two years looks very disappointing. Time will tell and I’m not throwing in the towel, but tough to get excited about the lower level teams, and Latin American development. The DR academy has produced basically nothing since BC has been here.
So, WTM, I am nowhere near as down on the Cherington regime as you are. If you look at the pitching that is close to the majors I think there is real hope for the Pirates’ future. I do not think Ben is a joke.
On the other hand, this Bradenton situation is a real indictment of the regime. This is entirely his handiwork, and as you say, the numbers are scary, especially on offense. The fact that everyone significant is repeating the level, with virtually no promotions from rookie ball, and still doing so poorly is alarming.
I’m not sure that anything will be done about it as long as Cherington is in charge, but their organization approach to hitting instruction isn’t working and they need to change it.
The gap between developing pitchers and developing hitters seems as large as ever, and why I think Cherington and his staff are about average. They may be above average in developing pitchers (Jones as exhibit A, hopefully Skenes, Chandler, and others to follow), but seem to be below average in developing hitters. Maybe that will turn around, but until it does I think we have an average FO when we need a well above average FO to compensate for Nutting's lack of spending.
It's still "early" in their tenure when you think about how long it takes to develop an IFA or a HS draftee, but I'm anxious to see a single success story that this group has developed from A ball to become a quality MLB hitter. That could change quickly with Davis or Gonzales or Peguero or White or Johnson (and I might even give them credit if Triolo starts hitting), but until then...
I just checked FG's ranking of our top hitters and it seems a little problematic that our top 8 in wRC+ were either largely developed by the previous administration (Reynolds, Hayes, Cutch) or acquired after they had already reached the majors (Joe, Olivares, Bart (not buying it yet), Williams!?!, MAT). Even when Cruz and Suwinski break into this group as they surely will, much of their development happened under another FO and/or at the MLB level. We need a success story comparable to Jones on the pitching side (though now I've probably jinxed Jones).
Don't disagree with anything. The pitching could give them a real lift, but it won't go far enough if he fails to provide an offense. You just have to look at the teams making the postseason in recent years, as well as the ones succeeding in it, to see that you can't win with pitching alone.
They are 4th in run differential right now. Baltimore, Philly, and now NYM have better pitching than the depleted Marlins. I suspect the offensive ability is somewhere between that first series and what we've seen since. Plus it's still pretty cold. So more long balls to come.
Well... the 1969 Mets won on pitching alone. Of course, that team had Nolan Ryan in the bullpen... so, unless the Pirates pitching staff is so good, they have to start Skenes in the bullpen, I don't see them winning on pitching alone.
Funny that you should mention Jack Herman. He is an interesting story. Came to the Pirates as an unknown in the late rounds (last round?) out of a New Jersey high school. He was celebrated for his contact hit tool, and in his first year with the Pirates, in the Complex league, he flirted with .400 and a .500 OBP for 150 ABs until a late season slump dropped his average to .340 (with a .435 OBP). Having none of this, the next season, the Pirates (under Huntington at this time) had him spend 2 months in their facility retooling his swing for more power and pull, since Herman had said at numerous times that the key to his success was making late swing-decisions and hitting the ball to the opposite field. Since "retooling" his swing, he has not made it out of A-ball.
He’s regressed badly since he was at Bradenton in 2021, and pitching quality in the FSL is much lower now than it was then.
It’s all the same problems I’m seeing with most of the low level hitters. Taking good pitches early, trying to pull every pitch, showing zero awareness of how he’s being pitched.
Dismissing this as a draftee just failing, like most do, is easy when you haven’t been watching the guy in person for five years. I’m not just checking his stats.
Well... you take a guy who is successful doing things one way... train him to do it completely differently... then it doesn't work and he fails miserably.... so you say, "baseball is hard... kid just didn't have it... on to the next one." Good way to avoid all accountability and responsibility for ruining his approach to hitting.
"Just like the rest of Skenes’ turns in the minor leagues this season, his latest outing was nothing short of dominant. Eight of his 11 outs came via strikes, and he got at least two whiffs on all four of his pitches. His four-seam fastball averaged 100 mph. Over his first 9.1 innings this season, Skenes, the reigning No. 1 overall pick, has allowed no runs, two hits, four walks and has struck out 19 hitters. Pittsburgh can’t be far off."
I especially like the bit about at least two whiffs on all four pitches.
I don't have a problem with the Cherrington regime's top picks. The Davis draft might produce Davis. White and two starting pitches. Taking Skenes instead of the hitters that followed now appears to be the obvious choice. Gonzales and Johnson were the best players available in their draft years.
But: The Pirates' minor league development staff hasn't developed one quality Major League hitter from these top picks. Nor a hidden diamond from the lower level draft picks, save for Triolo. Not one International FA has stepped forward. Only Dariel Lopez looks like a ML hitter in the making. But Lopez has flaws and is injured.
From the players acquired in trades, only Peguero and Suwinski appear capable of playing in the MLs. Peguero has had a taste of the Majors but he hasn't made a strong case for himself. Suwinski is Craig Wilson lite -- he has slightly more power than Wilson but, like Wilson, he is not an everyday player except for a team like the Pirates.
The Pirates have committed the organization to building its ML rosters through Minor league development. The strategy has proven itself with the pitchers it has acquired. But it has failed to produce position players who can hit.
The key test case is Tremarr Johnson. If the Pirates fail with him, then something is wrong and needs to be addressed.
Good article and insightful comments, and yet I’m not concerned with what happens at the complex and single A, I get that they move up, but the lower levels is the easiest to retool by drafting and trades.
WTM telling it like it is. 5 years in the rebuild and putting a Bradenton team on the field full of missed draft picks is very bad. I’m not impressed with someone who picks Skenes when most would have done so. The drafting strategy of the last two years looks very disappointing. Time will tell and I’m not throwing in the towel, but tough to get excited about the lower level teams, and Latin American development. The DR academy has produced basically nothing since BC has been here.
So, WTM, I am nowhere near as down on the Cherington regime as you are. If you look at the pitching that is close to the majors I think there is real hope for the Pirates’ future. I do not think Ben is a joke.
On the other hand, this Bradenton situation is a real indictment of the regime. This is entirely his handiwork, and as you say, the numbers are scary, especially on offense. The fact that everyone significant is repeating the level, with virtually no promotions from rookie ball, and still doing so poorly is alarming.
I’m not sure that anything will be done about it as long as Cherington is in charge, but their organization approach to hitting instruction isn’t working and they need to change it.
The gap between developing pitchers and developing hitters seems as large as ever, and why I think Cherington and his staff are about average. They may be above average in developing pitchers (Jones as exhibit A, hopefully Skenes, Chandler, and others to follow), but seem to be below average in developing hitters. Maybe that will turn around, but until it does I think we have an average FO when we need a well above average FO to compensate for Nutting's lack of spending.
I'm no huge fan of their hitter dev but least part of this is just selection bias.
It's still "early" in their tenure when you think about how long it takes to develop an IFA or a HS draftee, but I'm anxious to see a single success story that this group has developed from A ball to become a quality MLB hitter. That could change quickly with Davis or Gonzales or Peguero or White or Johnson (and I might even give them credit if Triolo starts hitting), but until then...
I just checked FG's ranking of our top hitters and it seems a little problematic that our top 8 in wRC+ were either largely developed by the previous administration (Reynolds, Hayes, Cutch) or acquired after they had already reached the majors (Joe, Olivares, Bart (not buying it yet), Williams!?!, MAT). Even when Cruz and Suwinski break into this group as they surely will, much of their development happened under another FO and/or at the MLB level. We need a success story comparable to Jones on the pitching side (though now I've probably jinxed Jones).
Don't disagree with anything. The pitching could give them a real lift, but it won't go far enough if he fails to provide an offense. You just have to look at the teams making the postseason in recent years, as well as the ones succeeding in it, to see that you can't win with pitching alone.
They are 4th in run differential right now. Baltimore, Philly, and now NYM have better pitching than the depleted Marlins. I suspect the offensive ability is somewhere between that first series and what we've seen since. Plus it's still pretty cold. So more long balls to come.
Well... the 1969 Mets won on pitching alone. Of course, that team had Nolan Ryan in the bullpen... so, unless the Pirates pitching staff is so good, they have to start Skenes in the bullpen, I don't see them winning on pitching alone.
That was over half a century ago.
Funny that you should mention Jack Herman. He is an interesting story. Came to the Pirates as an unknown in the late rounds (last round?) out of a New Jersey high school. He was celebrated for his contact hit tool, and in his first year with the Pirates, in the Complex league, he flirted with .400 and a .500 OBP for 150 ABs until a late season slump dropped his average to .340 (with a .435 OBP). Having none of this, the next season, the Pirates (under Huntington at this time) had him spend 2 months in their facility retooling his swing for more power and pull, since Herman had said at numerous times that the key to his success was making late swing-decisions and hitting the ball to the opposite field. Since "retooling" his swing, he has not made it out of A-ball.
He probably hasn't made it out of A ball because he's just not good at hitting professional pitching.
Baseball is really hard and when a high school kid with a bad hit tool doesn't make it, you can't always blame player dev.
Dudes that get drafted in the 30th round for 50k don't generally have high odds of making it.
He’s regressed badly since he was at Bradenton in 2021, and pitching quality in the FSL is much lower now than it was then.
It’s all the same problems I’m seeing with most of the low level hitters. Taking good pitches early, trying to pull every pitch, showing zero awareness of how he’s being pitched.
Dismissing this as a draftee just failing, like most do, is easy when you haven’t been watching the guy in person for five years. I’m not just checking his stats.
Well... you take a guy who is successful doing things one way... train him to do it completely differently... then it doesn't work and he fails miserably.... so you say, "baseball is hard... kid just didn't have it... on to the next one." Good way to avoid all accountability and responsibility for ruining his approach to hitting.
He’s painful to watch now.
While we're at it, from BA's latest Hot Sheet:
"Just like the rest of Skenes’ turns in the minor leagues this season, his latest outing was nothing short of dominant. Eight of his 11 outs came via strikes, and he got at least two whiffs on all four of his pitches. His four-seam fastball averaged 100 mph. Over his first 9.1 innings this season, Skenes, the reigning No. 1 overall pick, has allowed no runs, two hits, four walks and has struck out 19 hitters. Pittsburgh can’t be far off."
I especially like the bit about at least two whiffs on all four pitches.
Skenes = A Degrom like pitcher.
I don't have a problem with the Cherrington regime's top picks. The Davis draft might produce Davis. White and two starting pitches. Taking Skenes instead of the hitters that followed now appears to be the obvious choice. Gonzales and Johnson were the best players available in their draft years.
But: The Pirates' minor league development staff hasn't developed one quality Major League hitter from these top picks. Nor a hidden diamond from the lower level draft picks, save for Triolo. Not one International FA has stepped forward. Only Dariel Lopez looks like a ML hitter in the making. But Lopez has flaws and is injured.
From the players acquired in trades, only Peguero and Suwinski appear capable of playing in the MLs. Peguero has had a taste of the Majors but he hasn't made a strong case for himself. Suwinski is Craig Wilson lite -- he has slightly more power than Wilson but, like Wilson, he is not an everyday player except for a team like the Pirates.
The Pirates have committed the organization to building its ML rosters through Minor league development. The strategy has proven itself with the pitchers it has acquired. But it has failed to produce position players who can hit.
The key test case is Tremarr Johnson. If the Pirates fail with him, then something is wrong and needs to be addressed.
Well, if they continue to build him up 1/3 of an inning at a time, Pittsburgh could be very far off.....say, mid-June-ish?