I wouldn't worry a lot about the K rate. It isnt good, but the average K rate in this league is over 27%. The Marauders are at 30%, along with a couple of other teams. Last week, the Daytona starter for one of the weekday games threw 50% off speed stuff (about 80 on the stadium gun). At this level, if you can get off speed pitches anywhere near the strike zone, you will get a lot of swings and misses. I worry more about the total lack of power they show. I was shocked they weren't last in ISO. They have a very low BABIP, but it is no fluke. That has to change.
Yeah, it's not the K rate by itself. It's the K rate combined with the complete lack of hitting, especially power. But it's also the fact that they're encouraging these guys to take a lot of pitches, which is definitely contributing to the K rate, with the idea that they'll get pitches to drive, and the approach is a dismal failure.
I think only a select few should be encouraged to take pitches. Having power guys that swing and miss a lot take pitches is a bad idea. It gives the pitchers such an advantage.
The polar opposite, actually. It ain't 1982 anymore.
League-wide, pitchers so far in 2024 have thrown just 46% fastballs and only *42%* of their pitches in the strike zone. Pitching "backwards" no longer exists as a thing, it's the norm.
Coaching a guy who already swings and misses a lot to swing at even more shitty pitches is a recipe for disaster.
Swinging and missing at shitty pitches is one thing. Being so afraid to swing at a shitty pitch that you let good pitches go and fall behind in the count is where the Pirates are. The Pirates work the count and get themselves into a count with 2 strikes. Here are the stats with 2 strikes for the Pirates.
2 homers in 360 at bats with a .168 batting average.
I think the best strategy is to try to swing at strikes and not swing at balls. Other than that, I would mostly worry about mechanical issues. Not sure why some people behind desks think there is some grand strategy to baseball hitting: like they are planning the Soviet Winter offensive of 1943.
Isn't this league the first time hitters are exposed to automated balls and strikes? And iirc, automated zones tend to differ from how humans call balls and strikes. If those statements are true, it would make sense that K rates are high.
Not exactly. In the four years since the pandemic, the league K rate has been 10.6, 10.4, 9.6 and 10.7. One outlier last year, the rest pretty consistent.
this is very off topic for this post so not sure where to put this but I've been trying to find out more about Geronimo Franzua since WTM's season preview described him as a mystery.
basically he didn't just disappear from the DSL Astros and show up in NPB five years later. He signed with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp's academy in the Dominican Republic in 2014, pitched in the Japanese minor leagues including a team called the Kōchi Fighting Dogs, and then signed a NPB contract in May 2018. Hiroshima were still trying him as a starter but it looks like he moved to a relief full-time in June 2018. He was the Central League pitcher of the month in August 2018 (0.51 era in 17.2 IP), and was an NPB all-star in 2019.
It looks like he was throwing up to 98 mph from 2018-2020, but not more than 95 mph in 2021-22 when he was injured. The fastest pitch he's thrown in AAA this year has been 95.8
At some point I'm going to go through some or all of the BA top 30s to see what teams are getting out of the int'l market.
At this point, the BA top 30 guys for the Pirates (obviously, there are other lists out there and the BA list is a little out of date), for Cherington signings, has Shim, who seems to be permanently hurt, at #19 and Bralyn Brazoban, who has yet to play, at #24. It literally hasn't been this bad since the Littlefield days, and Littlefield was totally uninterested in the int'l market.
I wouldn't worry a lot about the K rate. It isnt good, but the average K rate in this league is over 27%. The Marauders are at 30%, along with a couple of other teams. Last week, the Daytona starter for one of the weekday games threw 50% off speed stuff (about 80 on the stadium gun). At this level, if you can get off speed pitches anywhere near the strike zone, you will get a lot of swings and misses. I worry more about the total lack of power they show. I was shocked they weren't last in ISO. They have a very low BABIP, but it is no fluke. That has to change.
Yeah, it's not the K rate by itself. It's the K rate combined with the complete lack of hitting, especially power. But it's also the fact that they're encouraging these guys to take a lot of pitches, which is definitely contributing to the K rate, with the idea that they'll get pitches to drive, and the approach is a dismal failure.
I think only a select few should be encouraged to take pitches. Having power guys that swing and miss a lot take pitches is a bad idea. It gives the pitchers such an advantage.
The polar opposite, actually. It ain't 1982 anymore.
League-wide, pitchers so far in 2024 have thrown just 46% fastballs and only *42%* of their pitches in the strike zone. Pitching "backwards" no longer exists as a thing, it's the norm.
Coaching a guy who already swings and misses a lot to swing at even more shitty pitches is a recipe for disaster.
Swinging and missing at shitty pitches is one thing. Being so afraid to swing at a shitty pitch that you let good pitches go and fall behind in the count is where the Pirates are. The Pirates work the count and get themselves into a count with 2 strikes. Here are the stats with 2 strikes for the Pirates.
2 homers in 360 at bats with a .168 batting average.
This is a comment that can only be confidently made by a guy watching on TV who has no clue what it looks like to face pants-shitting stuff.
Typical response from you when you see actual results.
I think the best strategy is to try to swing at strikes and not swing at balls. Other than that, I would mostly worry about mechanical issues. Not sure why some people behind desks think there is some grand strategy to baseball hitting: like they are planning the Soviet Winter offensive of 1943.
Isn't this league the first time hitters are exposed to automated balls and strikes? And iirc, automated zones tend to differ from how humans call balls and strikes. If those statements are true, it would make sense that K rates are high.
Not exactly. In the four years since the pandemic, the league K rate has been 10.6, 10.4, 9.6 and 10.7. One outlier last year, the rest pretty consistent.
Great stuff WTM!
this is very off topic for this post so not sure where to put this but I've been trying to find out more about Geronimo Franzua since WTM's season preview described him as a mystery.
basically he didn't just disappear from the DSL Astros and show up in NPB five years later. He signed with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp's academy in the Dominican Republic in 2014, pitched in the Japanese minor leagues including a team called the Kōchi Fighting Dogs, and then signed a NPB contract in May 2018. Hiroshima were still trying him as a starter but it looks like he moved to a relief full-time in June 2018. He was the Central League pitcher of the month in August 2018 (0.51 era in 17.2 IP), and was an NPB all-star in 2019.
I also found a website with NPB game logs and max/min pitch velocities (https://baseballdata.jp/2018/playerP/1600035S1.html)
It looks like he was throwing up to 98 mph from 2018-2020, but not more than 95 mph in 2021-22 when he was injured. The fastest pitch he's thrown in AAA this year has been 95.8
trying to use google translate to translate his wikipedia page from japanese (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geronimo_Franzua)
Haha, I figured he had to be somewhere. Great detective work!
Bradenton 2024 might be the worst Minor League team since the Littlefield era.
Less than great returns from the international market, to say the least.
At some point I'm going to go through some or all of the BA top 30s to see what teams are getting out of the int'l market.
At this point, the BA top 30 guys for the Pirates (obviously, there are other lists out there and the BA list is a little out of date), for Cherington signings, has Shim, who seems to be permanently hurt, at #19 and Bralyn Brazoban, who has yet to play, at #24. It literally hasn't been this bad since the Littlefield days, and Littlefield was totally uninterested in the int'l market.