Trying to make sense of Termarr Johnson's 2023 season
The former fourth overall pick showed flashes, but wasn't quite the hitter some expected.
To say that Termarr Johnson entered the Pittsburgh Pirates organization with high expectations may be underselling it.
Touted as one of the best prep hitters to come through the draft in recent history, with a swing/approach compared to a pair of Hall of Famers, a lot was expected from the teenager.
He was able to sneak in 82 plate appearances between the Complex and Bradenton at the end of 2022 before beginning his first full season at Single-A with the Marauders.
Finding a way to describe Johnson’s 2023 season was interesting.
On the one hand, he drew 100 walks as a teenager, a remarkable achievement overshadowed by an outlier season where three others also accomplished the same feat (Jesus Castillo, Jett Williams, and Jackson Holliday).
He also hit 18 home runs, 13 of which came in Bradenton at LECOM Park. He smoked the ball while at Single-A, with a 95th percentile exit velocity of 107.4 mph, which puts him in some interesting company when it comes to major league players - Bryan Reynolds, JT Realmuto, Jarred Kelenic, and Max Muncy all put up a similar mark.
Oddly enough, he only hit 12 doubles on the season - only two while in Greensboro (132 plate appearances). It’s weird to see him finish with so few extra-base hits, especially after hitting 18 home runs and knowing how hard he was hitting the ball in Greensboro.
Johnson’s plate discipline was nearly unmatched in the minors in 2023, of hitters wtih at least 450 plate appearances, no one had a better walk rate than him. In the data that’s available to the public (Single-A), his chase rate (20.1%) was among the best in the game and was comparable to Juan Soto and Mookie Betts (20%).
Unfortunately, he struggled in the zone with an IZ-Contact rate of 76.8%, far lower than you would like. That number was close to what Nick Gonzales posted in the majors (76.7%), and we saw the struggles he had making contact at times.
There was a lot of back-and-forth regarding Termarr’s first full professional season. If you ignore the fact that he was the fourth overall pick and the lofty comparisons put on him early, this is probably what you’d expect from a teenager playing full-season ball.
He began the season at 18 years old and got a late start preparing, getting hurt in Spring Training. Johnson was 149 plate appearances into his season before turning 19.
So, it would be fair to expect some struggles while also seeing flashes of what made him highly touted.
Entering 2024, Johnson will likely start at Greensboro again and will do so at 19 years old. Regardless of what the counting numbers said, there is legit raw power in the bat, and he doesn’t swing out of the zone.
If he can start connecting at a more consistent rate, the raw tools are there to be the kind of hitter you’d expect from a top 5 pick.
I noticed during his first year and early this past year that he had a lot of swings where he was trying to hit the ball 600 feet, a few times corkscrewing himself into the ground. I didn't see him a lot later in the year, but I also didn't notice him doing that anymore when I did see him. He was being praised for his contact skills as a draft pick, but you can't make high contact when you're so out of control. I don't remember seeing that in his draft videos either.
It's possible he was seeing velocity he wasn't used to and was trying to match power with power, but when I played I had a more contact oriented swing against power pitchers. If you square up velocity, the ball will go. I saved the big hacks for the slower pitchers. Doesn't mean my technique was better, but I also never ended up on the ground after a swing-and-miss
What I see is an .868 OPS in A, and an .842 OPS at A+. 462 combined PA, 349 AB, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 101 BB, 120 K, and all before age 20. Yep, the Pirates have had plenty of guys like that!