How about this for an optimistic outlook? When I played baseball, I walked a ton. When you walk at a really high rate, obviously, you are seeing a majority of pitches outside the strike zone. When this is the case, it can be difficult to square up on actual hittable pitches, because they are so few and far between and almost unexpected. ABs can get pretty frustrating to be honest. I think we will see a more telling Termarr in AA and AAA when there are more professional strike throwers to face. We saw a similar situation in 2023 with Sebastian Walcott of the Texas Rangers. I read that he responded better to pitching when they moved him up a level and the pitching quality improved. He was seeing a lot of bad pitches in the DSL.
What I see is an .868 OPS in A, and an .842 OPS at A+. 462 combined PA, 349 AB, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 101 BB, 120 K, and all before age 20. Yep, the Pirates have had plenty of guys like that!
remember Kevin Newman NEVER struck out and could play a plus SS and he has little value in the pros. Termarr is focusing on EV and impacting the ball. 30 HRs and 40 doubles from an infielder who can play a little SS is a perennial All-star.
You forgot the rest of that scouting blurb: “in pro ball, the keystone is Johnson’s likeliest home, given his maxed out, stocky build and projects to be limited range.” He DH’d more than he played short. He ain’t a shortstop.
If he would have been playing SS at ASU he CAN "fake" it at SS... regardless of what the rest of the blurb says. I also have seen many blurbs that said O'Neil Cruz's "likeliest home" was RF.
Please continue to condone any and all negativity and squash any positivity.
More than any other prospect, TJ is the one I want to see in 24. Is he a walks/power only guy now? Or does he dial his swing/approach in to cut down on the swing and miss?
Catch is right though, he’s quite volatile. I’d say they’re most volatile, outside of any pitcher.
I get it, but I think all teams are very aware of statistical anomalies in the minor leagues like the inflated PCL stats or the 'Greensboro Bump'. They will be looking at the same data that was used in this article not a bloated HR total.
I noticed during his first year and early this past year that he had a lot of swings where he was trying to hit the ball 600 feet, a few times corkscrewing himself into the ground. I didn't see him a lot later in the year, but I also didn't notice him doing that anymore when I did see him. He was being praised for his contact skills as a draft pick, but you can't make high contact when you're so out of control. I don't remember seeing that in his draft videos either.
It's possible he was seeing velocity he wasn't used to and was trying to match power with power, but when I played I had a more contact oriented swing against power pitchers. If you square up velocity, the ball will go. I saved the big hacks for the slower pitchers. Doesn't mean my technique was better, but I also never ended up on the ground after a swing-and-miss
Huge season for Johnson and therefore the entire organization. I’ll take performance on any metric that invites comparisons to Juan Soto and Mookie Betts. At the same time —- and we discussed this often during the season —- his seeming inability to make contact in the zone and turn that contact into hits is concerning.
I’m going to be optimistic and say that he figures it out in 2024. But he does need someone guiding him to get him to stop selling out for power on every swing.
How about this for an optimistic outlook? When I played baseball, I walked a ton. When you walk at a really high rate, obviously, you are seeing a majority of pitches outside the strike zone. When this is the case, it can be difficult to square up on actual hittable pitches, because they are so few and far between and almost unexpected. ABs can get pretty frustrating to be honest. I think we will see a more telling Termarr in AA and AAA when there are more professional strike throwers to face. We saw a similar situation in 2023 with Sebastian Walcott of the Texas Rangers. I read that he responded better to pitching when they moved him up a level and the pitching quality improved. He was seeing a lot of bad pitches in the DSL.
What I see is an .868 OPS in A, and an .842 OPS at A+. 462 combined PA, 349 AB, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 101 BB, 120 K, and all before age 20. Yep, the Pirates have had plenty of guys like that!
I’d be genuinely concerned if the Pirates development team didn’t have such an amazing track record with #1 MI draft picks.
remember Kevin Newman NEVER struck out and could play a plus SS and he has little value in the pros. Termarr is focusing on EV and impacting the ball. 30 HRs and 40 doubles from an infielder who can play a little SS is a perennial All-star.
A. Termarr thus far is not a doubles hitter.
B. Termarr can't even fake playing a little SS
C. Once he gets to higher levels the walks will come crashing down
4. That K rate in lower levels generally increases in the upper levels
5. This is an incredibly volatile prospect with a high bust probability as all his value is coming from the bat.
"He’s a good enough defender that he’d probably being playing shortstop had he ended up at Arizona State"
Eric Longehagen from Fangraphs.
Your B is wrong.
You forgot the rest of that scouting blurb: “in pro ball, the keystone is Johnson’s likeliest home, given his maxed out, stocky build and projects to be limited range.” He DH’d more than he played short. He ain’t a shortstop.
If he would have been playing SS at ASU he CAN "fake" it at SS... regardless of what the rest of the blurb says. I also have seen many blurbs that said O'Neil Cruz's "likeliest home" was RF.
Please continue to condone any and all negativity and squash any positivity.
Adam Frazier played SS @ Miss State.
The vast majority of 2b men are failed SS’s
Please continue to live in fantasy land and every prospect will end up a massive disappointment because you think he’s gonna be Jim Thome 2.0.
Take it from me, champ. I thought Polanco was gonna make us all forget about Dave Parker. How’d that turn out?
Fantasy land is nice if you just give it a try!
https://youtu.be/rdKOKpXfcRw?si=gTqm-PwwK26FMii0
https://youtu.be/r58GQYFZeLE?si=7r7B44CbkbPY-BnT
Contender for Buzz Kill post of 2024.
The most likely landing spot for TJ is between the two extremes Balls and Catch are putting out there.
That’s like saying the most likely landing spot for the ball on the roulette wheel is either black or red. Balls and Catch are definitely 0 and 00.
More than any other prospect, TJ is the one I want to see in 24. Is he a walks/power only guy now? Or does he dial his swing/approach in to cut down on the swing and miss?
Catch is right though, he’s quite volatile. I’d say they’re most volatile, outside of any pitcher.
He's basically Jim Thome that can fake it at SS. That's not volatile that's amazing.
Just once I'd like to see GMBC sell high off the "Greensboro Bump". Put Termarr & Lonnie White there all year and they'll both hit 35+ homers.
I get it, but I think all teams are very aware of statistical anomalies in the minor leagues like the inflated PCL stats or the 'Greensboro Bump'. They will be looking at the same data that was used in this article not a bloated HR total.
Nice article, I honestly have not read much about his 2023 season. But what a great combination, the eye of Joey Votto and the bat of Tony Gywnn.
I don't think his stock has dropped at all for me. I will be going to AA games this summer and can't wait to see him.
Not having Gwyn’s bat is the problem so far, Tony’s bat will never be compared to Gonzales!
i hope they fast track this dude and he competes for ROY 2025
Main piece in that Luzardo trade 😉🥰
I noticed during his first year and early this past year that he had a lot of swings where he was trying to hit the ball 600 feet, a few times corkscrewing himself into the ground. I didn't see him a lot later in the year, but I also didn't notice him doing that anymore when I did see him. He was being praised for his contact skills as a draft pick, but you can't make high contact when you're so out of control. I don't remember seeing that in his draft videos either.
It's possible he was seeing velocity he wasn't used to and was trying to match power with power, but when I played I had a more contact oriented swing against power pitchers. If you square up velocity, the ball will go. I saved the big hacks for the slower pitchers. Doesn't mean my technique was better, but I also never ended up on the ground after a swing-and-miss
Are there numbers showing any improvement on his in zone by year’s end?
Huge season for Johnson and therefore the entire organization. I’ll take performance on any metric that invites comparisons to Juan Soto and Mookie Betts. At the same time —- and we discussed this often during the season —- his seeming inability to make contact in the zone and turn that contact into hits is concerning.
I’m going to be optimistic and say that he figures it out in 2024. But he does need someone guiding him to get him to stop selling out for power on every swing.