NMR refers to this below, but the starting point is basically a 71-73 win team. Then they lost their second best starter, signed a below replacement-level 1B, signed two potential inning-eating starters, lost their starting C. They do have a (hopefully) full season from their (hopefully) fully recovered SS (but no back-up plan if anything goes awry there, except maybe Alika). They did acquire a RF who can probably hit, or at least platoon with Suwinski, but who will likely cost runs in the field.
None of this is indicative of the team acting like they think they are competitive. None of it moves the needle toward actually being competitive. The offseason isn’t over yet, so there are opportunities to further upgrade, but there isn’t anything to get excited over yet. To my mind, we’re looking at a 65 win team right now, that is more likely to lose 100 games than to win 82.
The only silver lining is that if they lose 100, maybe they get rid of Cherington and will bring in a management team that prioritizes improving the ballclub.
I'm hesitant to read quite so much into the Pythag record. That was mostly a product of Aug and Sept, when the Pirates scored 27 fewer runs than they allowed but went a game over .500. Once you're down to 57 games, the sample size is vulnerable to noise. Like two 14-1 losses, one where the dimwitted manager left Keller in to allow eight runs, another where he let Kyle Nicolas get torched for six runs in a third of an inning in his first major league outing. In fact, leaving pitchers in too long was a signature Shelton maneuver late in the season.
This is a team that's been three, four and five games above its Pythag the last three years, and that's suffered a 45-87 record in blowout losses, far below their W/L% in other games. Some of that's been due to Shelton blowing off games, just like Cherington has blown off every offseason since he was hired. When your in-game decisions frequently aren't baseball decisions, it's debatable how much the results tell you about the baseball talent.
That being said, I'm not about to argue that this WASN'T a 71-win team. There were a ton of variables. And even if it WAS a 76-win team, that's still a bad team and Cherington, as usual, has done nothing to improve it in the offseason. He's added no real upside, and Perez and especially Gonzales have significant potential to backfire. I'd like to think another non-competitive season would put Cherington's job in jeopardy, but the only thing that'll do that is a non-competitive profit margin.
I like BaseRuns, which supposedly considers timing instead of just bulk runs for/against, for that reason.
They actually performed really well when they were in it (+5 in 1-run games) but essentially no effort given to playing watchable baseball once they were out of a game.
That pretty well defines the entire Ben & Derry Era. Something changed part of the time in Aug and Sept. I’m inclined to ascribe it to younger players who were motivated to win games replacing veterans who were motivated to add service time.
The ease with which this FO and mgr have flat out blown off games is stunning. It’s not one bit different from point shaving or throwing games. The only distinction is that gamblers profit from one and the owner from the other. Morally it’s all the same.
I would very much like to like Cherington, or at least be able to defend his performance. He certainly doesn’t have the same resources that Andrew Friedman or Brian Cashman, or even Farhan Zaidi do. But compare him to, say, Nick Krall with the Reds. Compare him to Elias in Baltimore. Hell, if you want to keep the owner constant, compare him to Huntington.
I think we all know that it is exceedingly difficult to be successful relying on waiver-wire pick-ups and AAAA players. But I’d expect them to hit on one or two a year, given how many they churn through. It shouldn’t be that hard to find a 1B who can hit like a major league regular for a few years stuck on someone else’s AAA roster, for instance. Cherington and crew have shown no capability of doing that so far, and to my mind, this should be their last chance to turn it around.
Key was the guy most responsible for the over-performance. June, Aug, & Sept were so far over his norm (July injured). If he can perform to that level in '24, that would be a prerequisite to getting to 76 wins again.
Murph's observation of "overperformance" is backed both by Pythag (+5!!) and BaseRuns (+3) win estimators. Last time a Pirate club performed so far over their skis was the 94-win 2013 club (+6), the year after which they won....wait for it...88 games.
Just thinking about 2013, seems like we had a couple positions of need like pitcher and catcher. If I remember correctly we guaranteed around $24 million on 2 year deals for a couple guys named Frankie and Russ. That might of helped for 2013 results.
I disagree that any Pirates overperformed. After signing his big contract Reynolds became very pedestrian. Hayes was solid but missed a lot of games and Suwinski is a second year player who may not be in his prime. Santana was the only overperformer and he was gone half way through. If fully healthy this team has a lot more ceiling IMHO
I feel you're spot on Mitchell. I actually predicted the team would win 86 last year - I know, I am WAY optimistic. I wasn't assuming we'd lose Oneil Cruz for the entire year and have Reynolds and Hayes perform half-ass for 2/3s of the year.
I'm completely comfortable to predict that this team will be in playoff contention in a weak division. I'm seeing improved seasons for everyone in this batting order: Oneil; Rynolds; Hayes; Suwinski; McCutchen; Telez, Triolo, Hank, Palacious/Bae/Oliveres ... with a kick butt bull pen and some decent starting pitching, this team will be THERE, as they were in May this past year.
I didn't hear Murph argue the club played to their ultimate ceiling, but that the guys they ran out there probably wouldn't win 76 again if they played it back.
win/loss over/underperformance often comes down to the situational stuff, and this club performed far better than runs for/against and overall WAR would suggest. To that end, his point's a good one. They shouldn't just assume 76 is the baseline moving forward.
Great idea. Then when Frazier doesn't work out (he was replacement level in 2023), we can see about trading Cheng, Brannigan, McAdoo and Termarr for some other veteran who doesn't work out. As long as we have a steady supply of prospects, the supply of replacement level veterans will never run short.
The Pirates overachieved in 2023 partially due to excellent years from the veterans on the roster and the usage of more of the top prospects. Career best seasons from Hayes, Joe, and #1 SP Keller, and the bullpen rising to a Top 10 in MLB with excellent years from Bednar, Holderman, Moreta, Borucki, and R5 grab Jose Hernandez. Our best prospects of last year were Peguero, Triolo, and Bae.
Add SS and middle of the order hitter Oneil Cruz and RH hitting Edward Olivares in CF/RF and I like our chances to compete in 2024.
I may very well walk to PNC Park (from Argentina), buy a ticket to a game, and spend the whole 9+ innings yelling at Hurdle, I mean... Shelton, if Olivares plays a single half inning in CF.
Olivares has not played much CF in KC, but they had Michael Taylor in CF in 2022, and in 2023 they had Kyle Isbel and others in CF. But Olivares did get a whole 3 innings in CF last year. I think the most he has played out there was 76 innings and that might have been with SD a few years ago.
All of Cherington’s talk about needing to add pitching and ways to score more runs has so far and once again been nothing more than self-serving bluster. Aside from Cruz returning from injury and assuming he’s healthy, it’s really hard to find any place next year’s team has improved the way things are right now.
Endy’s loss makes the catching situation questionable again and Tellez at first has to be seen as a step down from Santana both offensively and defensively. They still don’t have a proven right fielder (I’m guessing Davis will still be out there most of the year despite Cherington’s statements about him starting the year as a catcher) and nothing about the few additional pitchers screams anything other than average.
Cherington spent around $25-30 million last year on Santana, Hill, McCutchen, Choi and Joe but so far this year it’s a fraction of that. Maybe he will surprise everyone and actually do something to improve the team but the guy’s a carnival barker and seldom produces anything other than a side-show. I fear they will regress to the mean of the previous 5 years and will be lucky to win 70 games next year but there’s still time and yes money available despite the Pirates continued false claims of poverty so I’ll keep waiting and hoping to be surprised.
Agree. Of course, in most cases small markets are going to have develop their own impact hitters and then they should be able to supplement with some mid tier free agents. If you can’t do the former, then the act of supplementing becomes that much harder. It’s time for them to junk the organizational philosophy of stockpiling weak hitting middle fielders and targeting corner guys that have bats which do not profile for the position. On the latter point, this management team has pretty much ignored the corners period.
Right there with you. Unless several of the young guys (pitchers and position players) perform near their ceilings, a 100 lose team is an injury or 2 away. As much as I want them to extend Keller, I'd almost rather them trade him and Bednar to a team like the Rangers if we could get Langford and three pitchers (Porter, Rocker and Lieter).
They still have some time left to make some upgrades but I'm not impressed with any of the moves they made this off-season.
I can’t say I’m with you there Mel. Not only are most of those pitchers faltering or hurt, trading those pitchers is just a white flag move and resets the clock hoping everything aligns with prospects. It. Never. Does.
This isn’t to say they’ve done fine work this offseason (it’s been marginal at best). But I don’t see point in hitting the reset button.
I'd much rather see them add a legitimate pitcher and bat. Then extend Keller. The problem is it has all been talk, they haven't made a move that makes the team better. The additions they've made have all been cheap with a hope for a bounce back. Earlier in the thread there was mention of the 2013 being +6 to their expectations. Two of the free agents they brought in that year were Frankie and Russ. This year it's Tellez and Perez.
The holes to fill this year are relatively the same as in 2013, but instead of a calculated signing like Russ for 2 year $17 million we get Tellez and his 35 hrs fom 2022 (of which only 26 would have been hrs at PNC) and his horrible defense. Even if Tellez figures it out and hits 40 homers and plays good defense, he's as good as gone the. Frankie was a similar signing as the 2 lefties we aquired so far with the exception he still threw hard, was younger and had a second year for $3.5 million.
My other frustration with the trades BC has made is the quantity over quality. The main piece I would want is Langford, the pitchers are throw ins that still have high ceilings but a bunch of risk. From BC previous trades he would split them up to get 8 decent prospects instead of getting one elite potential game changer back.
Trading Keller and Bednar would be admitting, in essence, that the rebuild has failed and punting the window of competitiveness down the line for 2 more years. I would rather they fire Cherington and find a GM who doesn't need 9 years and 6 first overall picks to put together a team that can win more than 75 games.
But the Rays trade guys like this all the time. Trading established players doesn’t have to be a losing proposition in the near term. But our management group has a flawed perspective in that regard, and I suspect, a meddlesome owner who inhibits such an approach.
The Rays seem like they have a crystal ball of being able to acquire players that no one has heard of and turning them into stars. I agree they wouldn't have the success rate if they never traded their stars, but it mostly comes from knowing the right guys to trade for. The Pirates scare me a little in that category.
The Rays do well when they make careful moves, like trading a 2-pitch starter with declining velocity for a haul of top prospects, but they are not the trade geniuses that they are made out to be. For example, can you name the players that they received for Blake Snell? They had him for 3 more years (including this year) for a total of $50 million.
They are also not the brilliant contract managers that people believe. All the warning signs of a headcase were there with Wander Franco. Now, they have to hope they can find a legal way out of that boondoggle of a contract without bankrupting the franchise.
I was saying some of their best 2023 players (that they received in trades) were not top players or prospects at the time. Most of us never heard of guys like Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Jose Siri, Harold Ramirez when the trades were made. Now those guys make up the biggest part of their line-up. Even many of us were ready to rid of Robert Stephenson, but then he turned into gold with the Rays.
On the one hand I agree. On the other hand, sometimes I wonder if the issue is less execution and more philosophical? (Not sure there’s a wrong answer either way, as both could be true)
Me too, I've said BC is getting into Littlefield territory. Just thinking the only way they're going to be competitive is with an extreme amount of good fortune as far as prospects go. Higher the amount the better chances they come together in a window. The nickel and dime bargain hunting isn't showing very good results.
I don't have a problem with the Gonzalez or Perez move taken individually. However, I do have a problem, like you say, with the constant nickle and diming and trying to fill 6 roster spots for 20 million dollars. Sign a good ballplayer and go back to filling all the roster spots that Cherington has failed to fill via the draft and via international amateur free agency with waiver wire claims. The fact of the matter is that any of the guys the Pirates have signed, except probably Perez, might have been available on the waiver wire by June.
Yep, until I see a substantial free agent signing or a high end trade it's business as usual with this owner and front office. I mentioned trading for Langford because I'm not sure Texas would make that trade. That's saying something for a team that just won the WS and have 2 glaring needs, starting pitching and bullpen help. Specially considering they have some financial constraints from their regional tv deal.
Actually, it would be admitting that they will never seriously field a competitive team. I do think they are a couple moves away from "competitive" for a wild card spot or weak division. It's still not competitive for a WS title, however.
Haven't they already admitted that. I haven't seen a major free agent signing or a high upside trade (always quantity over quality). At least this would be a high upside trade by getting Langford, the pitchers are secondary pieces. I wouldn't trade Bednar alone for the 3 pitchers.
I doubt the Pirates received any medical opinions different from what other teams did but they are willing to take chances other teams won't in case they get that thrift shop gold, lol.
The risk is not really the money, since Seattle and Atlanta are picking up most of his contract. The risk is the 40-man roster spot and that he fumbles out of the gate, costing the team a few wins before they find someone to replace him in the rotation. Any team that expects to win will not take chances like this. Teams hoping to win... well... that is another story.
$3mill is a lot of money in Pirate speak so its a pretty sure bet that they wouldnt have spent that much if they werent positive that Marco was on the mend and ready to compete
My concern is that the Pirates treat every $3-million-dollar-a-year veteran gamble like a multi-year deal with a superstar. They will stay with someone who is obviously not performing forever if that player makes more than the league minimum.
I am not understanding your syntax here. Overperformed due to injuries? Is that what you said / mean? That seems a non-sequitur.
If they "UNDERperformed" due to injuries, ok, the thing makes sense that even with injuries they still won what they did the season prior.
I think Cruz is cruzcial to this lineup. And a healthy Cutch. I am seeing that the batting lineup might be more consistent this season and sense better production. Pitching right now is a shit show unless they are going all in on like... a 20 man deep bullpen down into Indy. I think they have a LOT of arms with A (being ONE) good pitch. These guys cost nothing and can get outs at the major league level.
MAYBE all they are doing is bringing in innings eaters .... fungible starters who can go 4 or 5 most nights without giving up the farm.
Agree that they over-performed last year. Interestingly, they seem to have figured out how to manage to be competitive in those bullpen games later in the season. I wonder if that was a fluke, or if it’s repeatable/they’ve tapped into something there?
I have been talking about this "tapping into something" you mention here for quite some time.
Following P2 and now here as well, I am seeing A LOT of arms coming through, some of which, like a Burrowes, Solomento and several others are gonna be pretty darn good, and A LOT more arms that can be decent for 2-3 innings as long as they're not too exposed.
You've got some decent to very good bullpen guys that you round out with this plethora of guys with one or two decent pitches, a good arm slot that is deceiving, or a whale of a swing and miss pitch.
It is beating Sachs 5th Avenue with Goodwill. If it works and becomes a trend, you will see average major league salaries dip significantly.
NMR refers to this below, but the starting point is basically a 71-73 win team. Then they lost their second best starter, signed a below replacement-level 1B, signed two potential inning-eating starters, lost their starting C. They do have a (hopefully) full season from their (hopefully) fully recovered SS (but no back-up plan if anything goes awry there, except maybe Alika). They did acquire a RF who can probably hit, or at least platoon with Suwinski, but who will likely cost runs in the field.
None of this is indicative of the team acting like they think they are competitive. None of it moves the needle toward actually being competitive. The offseason isn’t over yet, so there are opportunities to further upgrade, but there isn’t anything to get excited over yet. To my mind, we’re looking at a 65 win team right now, that is more likely to lose 100 games than to win 82.
The only silver lining is that if they lose 100, maybe they get rid of Cherington and will bring in a management team that prioritizes improving the ballclub.
I'm hesitant to read quite so much into the Pythag record. That was mostly a product of Aug and Sept, when the Pirates scored 27 fewer runs than they allowed but went a game over .500. Once you're down to 57 games, the sample size is vulnerable to noise. Like two 14-1 losses, one where the dimwitted manager left Keller in to allow eight runs, another where he let Kyle Nicolas get torched for six runs in a third of an inning in his first major league outing. In fact, leaving pitchers in too long was a signature Shelton maneuver late in the season.
This is a team that's been three, four and five games above its Pythag the last three years, and that's suffered a 45-87 record in blowout losses, far below their W/L% in other games. Some of that's been due to Shelton blowing off games, just like Cherington has blown off every offseason since he was hired. When your in-game decisions frequently aren't baseball decisions, it's debatable how much the results tell you about the baseball talent.
That being said, I'm not about to argue that this WASN'T a 71-win team. There were a ton of variables. And even if it WAS a 76-win team, that's still a bad team and Cherington, as usual, has done nothing to improve it in the offseason. He's added no real upside, and Perez and especially Gonzales have significant potential to backfire. I'd like to think another non-competitive season would put Cherington's job in jeopardy, but the only thing that'll do that is a non-competitive profit margin.
I like BaseRuns, which supposedly considers timing instead of just bulk runs for/against, for that reason.
They actually performed really well when they were in it (+5 in 1-run games) but essentially no effort given to playing watchable baseball once they were out of a game.
“no effort given to playing watchable baseball”
That pretty well defines the entire Ben & Derry Era. Something changed part of the time in Aug and Sept. I’m inclined to ascribe it to younger players who were motivated to win games replacing veterans who were motivated to add service time.
The ease with which this FO and mgr have flat out blown off games is stunning. It’s not one bit different from point shaving or throwing games. The only distinction is that gamblers profit from one and the owner from the other. Morally it’s all the same.
Management team reflects ownership team. Apart from blind luck, another management team would likely mirror the current one.
I would very much like to like Cherington, or at least be able to defend his performance. He certainly doesn’t have the same resources that Andrew Friedman or Brian Cashman, or even Farhan Zaidi do. But compare him to, say, Nick Krall with the Reds. Compare him to Elias in Baltimore. Hell, if you want to keep the owner constant, compare him to Huntington.
I think we all know that it is exceedingly difficult to be successful relying on waiver-wire pick-ups and AAAA players. But I’d expect them to hit on one or two a year, given how many they churn through. It shouldn’t be that hard to find a 1B who can hit like a major league regular for a few years stuck on someone else’s AAA roster, for instance. Cherington and crew have shown no capability of doing that so far, and to my mind, this should be their last chance to turn it around.
Where the heck is Perez, still in Venezuela? Have rarely seen it take over a week to sign a guy, except of course the Correia signings last winter.
Agent: Martin, you need to get to Pittsburgh for your physical.
Perez: Wait, you said you made a deal with a MAJOR LEAGUE team!
Hope it is just him sticking at home for a bit for the holiday season and not a Frankie Liriano incident…….🤞🤞
It could just be the team slow playing it in order to give themselves more time to clear another roster spot.
Key was the guy most responsible for the over-performance. June, Aug, & Sept were so far over his norm (July injured). If he can perform to that level in '24, that would be a prerequisite to getting to 76 wins again.
Murph's observation of "overperformance" is backed both by Pythag (+5!!) and BaseRuns (+3) win estimators. Last time a Pirate club performed so far over their skis was the 94-win 2013 club (+6), the year after which they won....wait for it...88 games.
Just thinking about 2013, seems like we had a couple positions of need like pitcher and catcher. If I remember correctly we guaranteed around $24 million on 2 year deals for a couple guys named Frankie and Russ. That might of helped for 2013 results.
I disagree that any Pirates overperformed. After signing his big contract Reynolds became very pedestrian. Hayes was solid but missed a lot of games and Suwinski is a second year player who may not be in his prime. Santana was the only overperformer and he was gone half way through. If fully healthy this team has a lot more ceiling IMHO
I feel you're spot on Mitchell. I actually predicted the team would win 86 last year - I know, I am WAY optimistic. I wasn't assuming we'd lose Oneil Cruz for the entire year and have Reynolds and Hayes perform half-ass for 2/3s of the year.
I'm completely comfortable to predict that this team will be in playoff contention in a weak division. I'm seeing improved seasons for everyone in this batting order: Oneil; Rynolds; Hayes; Suwinski; McCutchen; Telez, Triolo, Hank, Palacious/Bae/Oliveres ... with a kick butt bull pen and some decent starting pitching, this team will be THERE, as they were in May this past year.
Aren't those two different questions?
I didn't hear Murph argue the club played to their ultimate ceiling, but that the guys they ran out there probably wouldn't win 76 again if they played it back.
win/loss over/underperformance often comes down to the situational stuff, and this club performed far better than runs for/against and overall WAR would suggest. To that end, his point's a good one. They shouldn't just assume 76 is the baseline moving forward.
I am ok with trading Nick and Peguero and then waiting on the next round of Cheng, Brannigan, McAdoo and Termarr to come in
wish we could do better than Adam Frazier though
Great idea. Then when Frazier doesn't work out (he was replacement level in 2023), we can see about trading Cheng, Brannigan, McAdoo and Termarr for some other veteran who doesn't work out. As long as we have a steady supply of prospects, the supply of replacement level veterans will never run short.
better than moving a flamed out prospect to play in the outfield
maybe Adam Newman would be more fun to watch?
what would be really fun is sending Moreta back to Cincinatti for Elly to play second base for us
The Pirates overachieved in 2023 partially due to excellent years from the veterans on the roster and the usage of more of the top prospects. Career best seasons from Hayes, Joe, and #1 SP Keller, and the bullpen rising to a Top 10 in MLB with excellent years from Bednar, Holderman, Moreta, Borucki, and R5 grab Jose Hernandez. Our best prospects of last year were Peguero, Triolo, and Bae.
Add SS and middle of the order hitter Oneil Cruz and RH hitting Edward Olivares in CF/RF and I like our chances to compete in 2024.
I may very well walk to PNC Park (from Argentina), buy a ticket to a game, and spend the whole 9+ innings yelling at Hurdle, I mean... Shelton, if Olivares plays a single half inning in CF.
Reasonable.
Olivares has not played much CF in KC, but they had Michael Taylor in CF in 2022, and in 2023 they had Kyle Isbel and others in CF. But Olivares did get a whole 3 innings in CF last year. I think the most he has played out there was 76 innings and that might have been with SD a few years ago.
All of Cherington’s talk about needing to add pitching and ways to score more runs has so far and once again been nothing more than self-serving bluster. Aside from Cruz returning from injury and assuming he’s healthy, it’s really hard to find any place next year’s team has improved the way things are right now.
Endy’s loss makes the catching situation questionable again and Tellez at first has to be seen as a step down from Santana both offensively and defensively. They still don’t have a proven right fielder (I’m guessing Davis will still be out there most of the year despite Cherington’s statements about him starting the year as a catcher) and nothing about the few additional pitchers screams anything other than average.
Cherington spent around $25-30 million last year on Santana, Hill, McCutchen, Choi and Joe but so far this year it’s a fraction of that. Maybe he will surprise everyone and actually do something to improve the team but the guy’s a carnival barker and seldom produces anything other than a side-show. I fear they will regress to the mean of the previous 5 years and will be lucky to win 70 games next year but there’s still time and yes money available despite the Pirates continued false claims of poverty so I’ll keep waiting and hoping to be surprised.
Agree. Of course, in most cases small markets are going to have develop their own impact hitters and then they should be able to supplement with some mid tier free agents. If you can’t do the former, then the act of supplementing becomes that much harder. It’s time for them to junk the organizational philosophy of stockpiling weak hitting middle fielders and targeting corner guys that have bats which do not profile for the position. On the latter point, this management team has pretty much ignored the corners period.
Right there with you. Unless several of the young guys (pitchers and position players) perform near their ceilings, a 100 lose team is an injury or 2 away. As much as I want them to extend Keller, I'd almost rather them trade him and Bednar to a team like the Rangers if we could get Langford and three pitchers (Porter, Rocker and Lieter).
They still have some time left to make some upgrades but I'm not impressed with any of the moves they made this off-season.
I can’t say I’m with you there Mel. Not only are most of those pitchers faltering or hurt, trading those pitchers is just a white flag move and resets the clock hoping everything aligns with prospects. It. Never. Does.
This isn’t to say they’ve done fine work this offseason (it’s been marginal at best). But I don’t see point in hitting the reset button.
I'd much rather see them add a legitimate pitcher and bat. Then extend Keller. The problem is it has all been talk, they haven't made a move that makes the team better. The additions they've made have all been cheap with a hope for a bounce back. Earlier in the thread there was mention of the 2013 being +6 to their expectations. Two of the free agents they brought in that year were Frankie and Russ. This year it's Tellez and Perez.
The holes to fill this year are relatively the same as in 2013, but instead of a calculated signing like Russ for 2 year $17 million we get Tellez and his 35 hrs fom 2022 (of which only 26 would have been hrs at PNC) and his horrible defense. Even if Tellez figures it out and hits 40 homers and plays good defense, he's as good as gone the. Frankie was a similar signing as the 2 lefties we aquired so far with the exception he still threw hard, was younger and had a second year for $3.5 million.
My other frustration with the trades BC has made is the quantity over quality. The main piece I would want is Langford, the pitchers are throw ins that still have high ceilings but a bunch of risk. From BC previous trades he would split them up to get 8 decent prospects instead of getting one elite potential game changer back.
Trading Keller and Bednar would be admitting, in essence, that the rebuild has failed and punting the window of competitiveness down the line for 2 more years. I would rather they fire Cherington and find a GM who doesn't need 9 years and 6 first overall picks to put together a team that can win more than 75 games.
But the Rays trade guys like this all the time. Trading established players doesn’t have to be a losing proposition in the near term. But our management group has a flawed perspective in that regard, and I suspect, a meddlesome owner who inhibits such an approach.
The Rays seem like they have a crystal ball of being able to acquire players that no one has heard of and turning them into stars. I agree they wouldn't have the success rate if they never traded their stars, but it mostly comes from knowing the right guys to trade for. The Pirates scare me a little in that category.
The Rays do well when they make careful moves, like trading a 2-pitch starter with declining velocity for a haul of top prospects, but they are not the trade geniuses that they are made out to be. For example, can you name the players that they received for Blake Snell? They had him for 3 more years (including this year) for a total of $50 million.
They are also not the brilliant contract managers that people believe. All the warning signs of a headcase were there with Wander Franco. Now, they have to hope they can find a legal way out of that boondoggle of a contract without bankrupting the franchise.
I was saying some of their best 2023 players (that they received in trades) were not top players or prospects at the time. Most of us never heard of guys like Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Jose Siri, Harold Ramirez when the trades were made. Now those guys make up the biggest part of their line-up. Even many of us were ready to rid of Robert Stephenson, but then he turned into gold with the Rays.
On the one hand I agree. On the other hand, sometimes I wonder if the issue is less execution and more philosophical? (Not sure there’s a wrong answer either way, as both could be true)
Me too, I've said BC is getting into Littlefield territory. Just thinking the only way they're going to be competitive is with an extreme amount of good fortune as far as prospects go. Higher the amount the better chances they come together in a window. The nickel and dime bargain hunting isn't showing very good results.
I don't have a problem with the Gonzalez or Perez move taken individually. However, I do have a problem, like you say, with the constant nickle and diming and trying to fill 6 roster spots for 20 million dollars. Sign a good ballplayer and go back to filling all the roster spots that Cherington has failed to fill via the draft and via international amateur free agency with waiver wire claims. The fact of the matter is that any of the guys the Pirates have signed, except probably Perez, might have been available on the waiver wire by June.
Yep, until I see a substantial free agent signing or a high end trade it's business as usual with this owner and front office. I mentioned trading for Langford because I'm not sure Texas would make that trade. That's saying something for a team that just won the WS and have 2 glaring needs, starting pitching and bullpen help. Specially considering they have some financial constraints from their regional tv deal.
Actually, it would be admitting that they will never seriously field a competitive team. I do think they are a couple moves away from "competitive" for a wild card spot or weak division. It's still not competitive for a WS title, however.
Haven't they already admitted that. I haven't seen a major free agent signing or a high upside trade (always quantity over quality). At least this would be a high upside trade by getting Langford, the pitchers are secondary pieces. I wouldn't trade Bednar alone for the 3 pitchers.
No
you dont like Varsho´s defense?
Kiermair resigns with BlueJays
We need Daulton Varsho´s defense in centerfield
Oneil is going to have an absolute monster year in 2024
Dude is going to carry the whole team on his back for six months
Lots of game winners and moonshots
Its going to be quite special to watch this dude turn ripe this year
I doubt the Pirates received any medical opinions different from what other teams did but they are willing to take chances other teams won't in case they get that thrift shop gold, lol.
The risk is not really the money, since Seattle and Atlanta are picking up most of his contract. The risk is the 40-man roster spot and that he fumbles out of the gate, costing the team a few wins before they find someone to replace him in the rotation. Any team that expects to win will not take chances like this. Teams hoping to win... well... that is another story.
I like better than the Jonathon Sanchez gamble in 2013, so thats... something. 😆
Thanks for posting that. I first had him confused with Perez who was signed as a free agent so I thought there was more money involved.
$3mill is a lot of money in Pirate speak so its a pretty sure bet that they wouldnt have spent that much if they werent positive that Marco was on the mend and ready to compete
espcially after the mistake with Jarlin last year
My concern is that the Pirates treat every $3-million-dollar-a-year veteran gamble like a multi-year deal with a superstar. They will stay with someone who is obviously not performing forever if that player makes more than the league minimum.
No wait.
I am not understanding your syntax here. Overperformed due to injuries? Is that what you said / mean? That seems a non-sequitur.
If they "UNDERperformed" due to injuries, ok, the thing makes sense that even with injuries they still won what they did the season prior.
I think Cruz is cruzcial to this lineup. And a healthy Cutch. I am seeing that the batting lineup might be more consistent this season and sense better production. Pitching right now is a shit show unless they are going all in on like... a 20 man deep bullpen down into Indy. I think they have a LOT of arms with A (being ONE) good pitch. These guys cost nothing and can get outs at the major league level.
MAYBE all they are doing is bringing in innings eaters .... fungible starters who can go 4 or 5 most nights without giving up the farm.
Color me intrigued about this coming season.
"Cruzcial" - I like what you did there. And I agree.
Villa having a season. Glad for you.
Ok. Overperformed for having all the injuries. I think I understand you.
Agree that they over-performed last year. Interestingly, they seem to have figured out how to manage to be competitive in those bullpen games later in the season. I wonder if that was a fluke, or if it’s repeatable/they’ve tapped into something there?
I have been talking about this "tapping into something" you mention here for quite some time.
Following P2 and now here as well, I am seeing A LOT of arms coming through, some of which, like a Burrowes, Solomento and several others are gonna be pretty darn good, and A LOT more arms that can be decent for 2-3 innings as long as they're not too exposed.
You've got some decent to very good bullpen guys that you round out with this plethora of guys with one or two decent pitches, a good arm slot that is deceiving, or a whale of a swing and miss pitch.
It is beating Sachs 5th Avenue with Goodwill. If it works and becomes a trend, you will see average major league salaries dip significantly.