Weekly Mailbag: Roster space, Marco Gonzales injury, have the Pirates improved?
Another mailbag article touches on DFA candidate Marco Gonzales and whether the Pirates have improved.
Balls and Gutters: To sign Cutch and an FA starter, we'll have to DFA and/or trade some folks to create space on the 40-man. Who would be your top 5 players to DFA and a couple of trade candidates? ( It's kinda cool that it's getting harder to do now that we're getting better). Thanks!
So this already happened, and Andre Jackson got DFA to make room for McCutchen. At this point, they still need to make room for Martin Perez, so there must be at least one other roster move.
If the Pirates go the DFA route, three names immediately appear as candidates - Max Kranick, Joshua Palacios, and Alika Williams. Kranick returned this past season from Tommy John and didn’t look overly sharp. Palacios came up in many big moments but was still a replacement-level player, and I like Williams’ glove, but that’s it. He may have an advantage because he is currently the best defensive shortstop on the 40-man.
Joesolo: One down and two to go. So the Pirates got Tellez to play first but which two will they get to put in the starting rotation? Most good pieces are off the board.
With trading for Marco Gonzales and signing Martin Perez, I’m not sure there are still two additions from the rotation. Would that be ideal? Absolutely, but I’d imagine it's less likely.
It’s hard to take a stab at it because I have no idea what kind of budget they are dealing with. It’s not cheap to sign free-agent pitchers, even less so trading for one with any control. It’d be nice to see them sign someone to a multi-year deal and stop the stop-gap type signings.
But who knows at this point?
George: Shoudn’’t we be a little more concerned with Marco Gonzales’ injury? Nerve damage doesn’t sound promising. Everyone seems to be fine slating him right in the rotation.
As soon as I heard what type of surgery he had, that was my initial thought, but it doesn’t seem like the Pirates are concerned, or at least they haven't expressed anything yet.
Brent Honeywell Jr. and Brandon Morrow appeared to have similar procedures. Morrow had lingering issues for the rest of his career. Honeywell has pitched, but he’s always had arm issues.
Maybe I’m giving management too much credit, but I’m sure the Pirates saw his medicals and were ok with it. Until I hear otherwise, I feel like slating him into the rotation is fine.
joesolo: The Pirates are doing what they usually do, bargain hunt in the free agent bin. With what they have done so far can they win more games than they lose next year?
I may be in the minority here, but I think the Pirates overperformed last year. A lot of that was due to injuries, however. A healthy team the previous year won about what they ended up winning. Rerun it, having two traditional starters for a stretch of the season and losing your shortstop (who starting shorts is a potential 20/20 guy) for most of the year, and I’m not sure they win 76.
So they needed to improve even more to maintain the 76, and I’m not sure they have done that yet. I’m not an overly big fan of Gonzales or Perez as anything more than people who can fill innings.
There’s still more off-season left to go, but I think this current roster, you are hoping for a lot of people to take a pretty big step forward, and I’m not sure that’s how it generally works.
Murph's observation of "overperformance" is backed both by Pythag (+5!!) and BaseRuns (+3) win estimators. Last time a Pirate club performed so far over their skis was the 94-win 2013 club (+6), the year after which they won....wait for it...88 games.
I disagree that any Pirates overperformed. After signing his big contract Reynolds became very pedestrian. Hayes was solid but missed a lot of games and Suwinski is a second year player who may not be in his prime. Santana was the only overperformer and he was gone half way through. If fully healthy this team has a lot more ceiling IMHO