My 2 cents on the prospect ranking is using the Fangraphs / PP methodology of tiers. You can rank them within the tiers, but I always thought that was much more telling than just an ordered list.
Not that it'll surprise anybody here, but BA has concluded that the Pirates are the second-worst team in MLB since 2012 at drafting and developing pitchers.
"The Pirates are fifth worst in innings pitched (2,619), second worst in RA/9 (5.45) and dead last in FIP (4.76), which is discouraging for a team that has signed 21 picks within the top 50 since 2012.
Mitch Keller’s slow development, Quinn Priester’s rough debut and the traded Shane Baz’s Tommy John surgery have all played a role in this, but the main note is there haven’t been many later-round success stories either."
They chose it because it was the first year with the bonus pools. And it’s not like they were aiming at the Pirates. They did all 30 teams.
Looking at 2011 doesn’t exactly burnish NH’s record, either. He totally failed to develop Glasnow into a major leaguer, and Cole and Holmes both got much better the moment they escaped Pgh.
Somewhat surprisingly, in an earlier article (link provided in above link) we came out looking decent in developing hitters with the 2nd most (to the Astros) hitters reaching the majors and the 9th most in runs created.
It should be noted, though, that a team is bound to have more prospects reach the majors when they're not signing quality FAs and when you have a larger number of players reach the majors, you're bound to have more runs created. When you look at rate stats like OBP and SLG, we don't rank very high at all.
I think it's harder to completely screw up hitters. The incompetence of the NH/Stark staff had more impact on pitchers. And the current boobs aren't doing any better.
In 2014 Keller was drafted in the 2nd Round; 2015 Taylor 4th RD, Waddell 5th Round, BRU 6th Rd; 2016 Macgregor 2nd Rd, Ogle 4th Rd; these were the MI drafts/position player drafts. Things changed in 2018 except they could not sign Hoglund at No.1, but Ashcraft, Shortridge, and Burrows could all see MLB in 2024. 2019 was Priester and then nothing until in the 8th Rd; 2020 was Mlodzinski and Jones who we should see both in 2024. In 2021 was Solometo, Chandler,Kellington, Sullivan, Meis, and Samaniego. In 2022 was Harrington, Barco, Kennedy, and Diamond. 2023 was the capper with Paul Skenes and the worm has turned! It's going to be very hard to screw this up.
Keller was struggling until he decided to turn to a new pitch in 2022 - the Sinker, which he throws 23%. In 2022 it was a +8 Run Value Pitch, and in 2023 it was a +11 Run Value Pitch. He has gone from barely a plus fWAR pitcher to +2.1 fWAR in 2022 and +3.3 fWAR in 2023. He has also started to throw a Sweeper 16% - it was a +4 in 2022 and fell to a -2 in 2023. He is still a work in progress, but the fWAR numbers have gone up the past 3 years - will the Pirates try to secure him to an extension?
The article is free and contains a nice graph, but the answer to your question is, surprisingly, the A's. The A's were one of the best, though, at developing hitters. So their results may be partly due to an organizational philosophy that focused on drafting hitters.
Oops, shoulda tried that link! So used to BA stuff being behind a paywall so thank you for the heads up. Hoping my pal Mason miller bucks this trend for the As
And based on the two articles, I'd guess that if/when they do a combined ranking we'll come in last though the Red Sox could challenge us (who was their GM in the first three years of this study?).
If anything, we've been way too generous. This team has been legendarily bad at every aspect of baseball for over 30 years now. They're THE case study in how not to run a pro sports franchise.
Except for the 4 or 5 years they were able to pick the pockets of the Yankees getting AJ Burnett, Russell Martin, and Francisco Cervelli in trades while 'Cutch was at the top of his game and Gerrit Cole was breaking into the majors and quickly becoming the Ace of the Pirate Staff.
Thanks AM for the response to my question. I recall that during the season, anyone on rehab, we would get info such as Taillon is throwing flat ground at 60 feet, 90 feet, etc. and we would also get info on when they were allowed to throw from an inclined surface, and working their way up to throwing off the rubber. I guess the resource folks who provided all of that info to reporters, scouts, etc. are resting during the off-season. Hard to imagine that the GM would not know those pertinent facts about how the rehab is proceeding, or maybe he knows and just considers us as not needing to know.
They do like the medical updates on Wednesday/Thursday during the season, so I’d imagine we’d get more details then. Being the offseason right now there’s definitely less info out there I would think
Was wondering if I ever actually saw Tommy John pitch on TV or how long ago he retired. He last pitched in 1989 so there is a chance I could have. But I did find this quote on Wiki by him which gave me a chuckle.
On August 24 (1986), rookie Mark McGwire of the Athletics had two hits off him. McGwire's father happened to be John's dentist, and John told reporters, "When your dentist's kid starts hitting you, it's time to retire!"[150] He went on to pitch three more seasons, however.
I saw him pitch when I was a kid, but have barely any recollection of it. If memory serves, it was Billy Martin’s last home game as a manager (walk off win over the Orioles in mid-June).
I also saw him pitch when I was a kid. In fact, outing myself as an old guy, I saw him pitch in his rookie season, in '63 or '64. We lived in Boston then, and my dad took me to Fenway for game...weirdly, the game also ended w/ a walk off win, a grand slam in extra innings for the Sox. My dad's comment on the rookie pitcher: "I think this kid is going to be pretty good."
Mailbag Question: Here's a BucsOnDeck Challenge: Not this year. Not next year. But the next year! What is the starting rotation in 2026? 5 names only. No hedging! Go...
Might as well make it a million $$$, chances of getting this right are far more than a million to one. Undoubtedly the GM will pick up some super cheap vet on his last legs to lend some much needed Veteranosity to the rotation on about February 12, 2026.
All the names listed are strong candidates and I'd add Wolf to the list, but I worry that the reality will be that only three of the five are currently in the organization. Between not paying market rate for Keller, our poor track record of developing pitchers, and the general uncertainty that comes with pitching prospects, if 3/5 of our rotation are guys we developed (or finished developing as would be the case with Wolf), that's probably as good as can be hoped for.
SKenes, Chandler, Solo, Priester, Harrington.. my wild card pick is Brubaker - he shows he is recovered and returns to projection as a solid / non-spectacular 4 or 5 and signs a 2 year deal.
Two clarification questions: A) are you defining the 2026 rotation as the opening day rotation? Or the five pitchers who start the most? B) what if we think one or more of the spots is taken up by outside additions, rather than internal options? Just fill in outside additions?
2. I would just say knowing what you know now, except, if you think you are sharp enough to predict what this management team is going to do in free agency going into 2026, you go on and get it, brother.
1) Skenes 2) Bubba 3) Solo 4) Keller 5) Harrington
Forgot that I'm still holding out hope for Roki Sasaki. BC found a crazy loophole were we somehow kinda but not really trade Andre Jackson for him. This leads to our 2026 rotation being. 6 man
My 2 cents on the prospect ranking is using the Fangraphs / PP methodology of tiers. You can rank them within the tiers, but I always thought that was much more telling than just an ordered list.
I had thought about doing a tier list. Still kinda of debating right now. Probably shooting for an early March release so I have some time.
Not that it'll surprise anybody here, but BA has concluded that the Pirates are the second-worst team in MLB since 2012 at drafting and developing pitchers.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/which-mlb-teams-are-the-best-and-worst-at-drafting-pitchers/
"The Pirates are fifth worst in innings pitched (2,619), second worst in RA/9 (5.45) and dead last in FIP (4.76), which is discouraging for a team that has signed 21 picks within the top 50 since 2012.
Mitch Keller’s slow development, Quinn Priester’s rough debut and the traded Shane Baz’s Tommy John surgery have all played a role in this, but the main note is there haven’t been many later-round success stories either."
Drawing the line at 2012 is a little bit convenient.....considering NH drafted Cole, Glasnow and Clay Holmes in 2011.
They chose it because it was the first year with the bonus pools. And it’s not like they were aiming at the Pirates. They did all 30 teams.
Looking at 2011 doesn’t exactly burnish NH’s record, either. He totally failed to develop Glasnow into a major leaguer, and Cole and Holmes both got much better the moment they escaped Pgh.
also Bell and Trey Turner that year
Somewhat surprisingly, in an earlier article (link provided in above link) we came out looking decent in developing hitters with the 2nd most (to the Astros) hitters reaching the majors and the 9th most in runs created.
It should be noted, though, that a team is bound to have more prospects reach the majors when they're not signing quality FAs and when you have a larger number of players reach the majors, you're bound to have more runs created. When you look at rate stats like OBP and SLG, we don't rank very high at all.
I think it's harder to completely screw up hitters. The incompetence of the NH/Stark staff had more impact on pitchers. And the current boobs aren't doing any better.
In 2014 Keller was drafted in the 2nd Round; 2015 Taylor 4th RD, Waddell 5th Round, BRU 6th Rd; 2016 Macgregor 2nd Rd, Ogle 4th Rd; these were the MI drafts/position player drafts. Things changed in 2018 except they could not sign Hoglund at No.1, but Ashcraft, Shortridge, and Burrows could all see MLB in 2024. 2019 was Priester and then nothing until in the 8th Rd; 2020 was Mlodzinski and Jones who we should see both in 2024. In 2021 was Solometo, Chandler,Kellington, Sullivan, Meis, and Samaniego. In 2022 was Harrington, Barco, Kennedy, and Diamond. 2023 was the capper with Paul Skenes and the worm has turned! It's going to be very hard to screw this up.
Keller was struggling until he decided to turn to a new pitch in 2022 - the Sinker, which he throws 23%. In 2022 it was a +8 Run Value Pitch, and in 2023 it was a +11 Run Value Pitch. He has gone from barely a plus fWAR pitcher to +2.1 fWAR in 2022 and +3.3 fWAR in 2023. He has also started to throw a Sweeper 16% - it was a +4 in 2022 and fell to a -2 in 2023. He is still a work in progress, but the fWAR numbers have gone up the past 3 years - will the Pirates try to secure him to an extension?
Ow. Man. That huurts.
Who could possibly be worse?
The article is free and contains a nice graph, but the answer to your question is, surprisingly, the A's. The A's were one of the best, though, at developing hitters. So their results may be partly due to an organizational philosophy that focused on drafting hitters.
Oops, shoulda tried that link! So used to BA stuff being behind a paywall so thank you for the heads up. Hoping my pal Mason miller bucks this trend for the As
And based on the two articles, I'd guess that if/when they do a combined ranking we'll come in last though the Red Sox could challenge us (who was their GM in the first three years of this study?).
Say whaaaa?! You mean we're not crazy?
Well, we are all pretty much crazy but that is beside the point…. 🤪🤪
If anything, we've been way too generous. This team has been legendarily bad at every aspect of baseball for over 30 years now. They're THE case study in how not to run a pro sports franchise.
Except for the 4 or 5 years they were able to pick the pockets of the Yankees getting AJ Burnett, Russell Martin, and Francisco Cervelli in trades while 'Cutch was at the top of his game and Gerrit Cole was breaking into the majors and quickly becoming the Ace of the Pirate Staff.
Thanks AM for the response to my question. I recall that during the season, anyone on rehab, we would get info such as Taillon is throwing flat ground at 60 feet, 90 feet, etc. and we would also get info on when they were allowed to throw from an inclined surface, and working their way up to throwing off the rubber. I guess the resource folks who provided all of that info to reporters, scouts, etc. are resting during the off-season. Hard to imagine that the GM would not know those pertinent facts about how the rehab is proceeding, or maybe he knows and just considers us as not needing to know.
They do like the medical updates on Wednesday/Thursday during the season, so I’d imagine we’d get more details then. Being the offseason right now there’s definitely less info out there I would think
Also the bonus that this regime shares little to no information on the regular so not surprised if we get even less updates now
Was wondering if I ever actually saw Tommy John pitch on TV or how long ago he retired. He last pitched in 1989 so there is a chance I could have. But I did find this quote on Wiki by him which gave me a chuckle.
On August 24 (1986), rookie Mark McGwire of the Athletics had two hits off him. McGwire's father happened to be John's dentist, and John told reporters, "When your dentist's kid starts hitting you, it's time to retire!"[150] He went on to pitch three more seasons, however.
I saw him pitch when I was a kid, but have barely any recollection of it. If memory serves, it was Billy Martin’s last home game as a manager (walk off win over the Orioles in mid-June).
I bet memory serves you correctly. I believe you.
I also saw him pitch when I was a kid. In fact, outing myself as an old guy, I saw him pitch in his rookie season, in '63 or '64. We lived in Boston then, and my dad took me to Fenway for game...weirdly, the game also ended w/ a walk off win, a grand slam in extra innings for the Sox. My dad's comment on the rookie pitcher: "I think this kid is going to be pretty good."
Appreciate the story. Was interesting reading his wiki page
Fellow old guy here. I know I would have seen him pitch on tv. Just don’t remember…..
Mailbag Question: Here's a BucsOnDeck Challenge: Not this year. Not next year. But the next year! What is the starting rotation in 2026? 5 names only. No hedging! Go...
$100 from da Wabbit for the one who is correct!
1) Skenes, 2) Keller, 3) Priester, 4) outside acquisition, 5) outside acquisition
Skenes, Keller, bubz, solo, dreker. Last lefty listed leading les lads. How about that for alliteration.
Skenes, Oviedo, Solometo, Shim, Nestor Cortes
Might as well make it a million $$$, chances of getting this right are far more than a million to one. Undoubtedly the GM will pick up some super cheap vet on his last legs to lend some much needed Veteranosity to the rotation on about February 12, 2026.
I can only hope it’s Java Joe Musgrove.
All the names listed are strong candidates and I'd add Wolf to the list, but I worry that the reality will be that only three of the five are currently in the organization. Between not paying market rate for Keller, our poor track record of developing pitchers, and the general uncertainty that comes with pitching prospects, if 3/5 of our rotation are guys we developed (or finished developing as would be the case with Wolf), that's probably as good as can be hoped for.
Yep. Everyone here is getting pretty starry eyed about a complete homegrown rotation. I’d put the chances at that at less than 10%.
SKenes, Chandler, Solo, Priester, Harrington.. my wild card pick is Brubaker - he shows he is recovered and returns to projection as a solid / non-spectacular 4 or 5 and signs a 2 year deal.
1-Skenes 2-Chandler 3-Solo 4-Barco 5-Jones
Skenes, bubba, ashcraft, lance lynn, harrington
Two clarification questions: A) are you defining the 2026 rotation as the opening day rotation? Or the five pitchers who start the most? B) what if we think one or more of the spots is taken up by outside additions, rather than internal options? Just fill in outside additions?
Good Qs Arky:
1. Opening Day roster.
2. I would just say knowing what you know now, except, if you think you are sharp enough to predict what this management team is going to do in free agency going into 2026, you go on and get it, brother.
Fair enough, thanks!
1) Skenes 2) Bubba 3) Solo 4) Keller 5) Harrington
Forgot that I'm still holding out hope for Roki Sasaki. BC found a crazy loophole were we somehow kinda but not really trade Andre Jackson for him. This leads to our 2026 rotation being. 6 man
1a) Skenes 1b) Roki 1c) Bubba
2a) Snelling 2b) Solo 2c) Lesko
Depth lhp, Barco, Kennedy and Wolf
Depth rhp, Harrington, Matoma and Shim
(Snelling and Lesko acquired in Keller trade)
Will Crowe, Rich Hill, Andre Jackson, Hatch and Falter, I prefer Apple Pay.
Hahahaha
I am Groot.