What happens if Johan Oviedo misses time?

A look at how the roster looks like and what can happen from here.

Photo Credit: WTM

The offseason is barely underway, and there is a chance that the Pirates will already have to make a hard shift regarding their plans for building their 2024 roster.

Jason Mackey of the Post Gazette reported that Johan Oviedo has been experiencing ‘right elbow issues/pain’ and that Tommy John surgery has been discussed.

For a team that closed this past season out with two healthy starters - Oviedo being one of them - it’s not ideal news to receive.

Oviedo, 25, pitched a career-high 177.2 innings this past season, posting a 4.31 ERA with a 4.81 xFIP and 1.8 WAR (on Fangraphs).

He was acquired by the Pirates in the Jose Quintana trade and was moved back to the rotation after being made a reliever by the St. Louis Cardinals.

Losing him would be a big blow for the Pirates, who were in the market to add starting pitching this offseason to team with Mitch Keller and Oviedo.

Now, the Pirates may have to find a way to cover 177.2 innings from a year ago. If there is a positive out of this, it is very early in the offseason, so they can adjust their plans before any major free agents have been picked up.

Internal options to fill innings

Just looking at the 40-man roster, quite a few names with starting experience can step into the rotation, and they can be separated into a few very different groups.

Returning from injury

JT Brubaker

Mike Burrows

Max Kranick

Brubaker and Burrows had Tommy John surgery last year, and their exact availability remains to be seen. For Brubaker, his injury happened in Spring Training, so he could be closer to returning, but will still need to be built back up. With 315.2 career major league innings, he’s the most experienced behind Keller on the 40-man.

Burrows was added to the 40-man last year after being Rule Five eligible last offseason and only made two appearances before eventually needing surgery. It was also relatively early, but he will likely need time to build back up and monitor his innings.

Kranick returned to the mound late last year and threw 20.2 innings in the minors. He hasn’t appeared in a major league game since May 11, 2022.

‘Bulk’ inning/’Openers’

Osvaldo Bido

Bailey Falter

Andre Jackson

Both Falter and Jackson were midseason additions to the roster, and both saw strings of success with the Pirates being used as openers/bulk inning guys in bullpen games. Falter had a 3.99 ERA in 38.1 innings before his final outing of the season (2 IP, 8 ER) that blew up his numbers.

Jackson pitched well, including throwing four shutout innings in his last appearance of the year against the Marlins. Bido made the shift to the bullpen after being sent back to Indianapolis.

All three are more likely to compete for a spot in the bullpen as a swingman/long relief type if they remain on the 40-man throughout the offseason.

Out of options

Roansy Contreras

What the Pirates may do with Roansy Contreras is anyone question. Of course, the better thing would be for him to be a starter, and now, if Oviedo does miss time, he probably would get a rotation spot out of Spring since he is out of options.

They can move him to the bullpen to give him one last shot within the organization if he struggles.

The ‘Kids’

Luis Ortiz

Quinn Priester

Jackson Wolf

Depending on how the offseason turns out, this could be the competition for the fifth and final roster spot (likely with Roansy included in it).

Unfortunately, going off of 2023, neither Ortiz nor Priester look like major league pitchers. They are both young, and it’s rarely an easy adjustment to the majors for rookies.

Priester threw 50 innings with the Pirates last year and put up a 7.74 ERA. Ortiz jumped onto the scene in 2022 and looked like he would be a mainstay in the rotation, but this past year, he allowed 99 hits in 86.2 innings while walking (48), almost as many as he struck out (59).

Wolf hasn’t pitched in the majors for the Pirates, with one start while still with the Padres. He hasn’t pitched in Triple-A yet, finishing last year in Altoona. He’ll probably start the year as depth, but he’s already on the 40-man so he could be an option at some point.

Looking further down

The big-name not on the 40-man roster is Paul Skenes, the first overall pick in the 2023 draft. He’s already made a couple of starts in Double-A, and it’s expected he’ll make his major league debut rather quickly in 2024.

The rotation will probably have some sort of filler (Contreras) until Skenes is ‘ready.’

Jared Jones is the next closest ready prospect, but there may still be questions about his long-term future as a starter. With his stuff, he will at least get an opportunity to start.

Anthony Solometo spent about half the season with Double-A but is still just 20 years old. There has to be a combination of things going good (for Solometo) and bad (for the Pirates pitching picture) for him to get anything other than a late-season cameo. That’s still a long shot.

Looking outside the organization.

Ben Cherington alluded to being aggressive in free agency and the trade market to add to the roster. Seeing as what their roster looked like at the end of the season, they might have been setting up their 2024 rotation to be something like this;

Mitch Keller

Johan Oviedo

Free Agent 1

Free Agent/Trade

Ortiz/Priester/Contreras

One of those spots would eventually go to Skenes when he was ‘ready,’ but what do they do if they have to cross Oviedo off the board?

Pitching doesn’t come cheap, and bringing in a third starting pitcher outside the organization will become very costly (either in money or prospect capital).

The likely scenario is that two of Ortiz/Priester/Contreras (maybe even Kranick or Brubaker, depending on health) now take a roster spot, and then Skenes joins the crowd somehow.

It’s still early, and nothing is for sure when it comes to Oviedo, but if Tommy John is already being discussed as an option, you have to act like you won’t have him and be happy if he does pitch.